Merry Christmas!

“Christmas is the spirit of giving without a thought of getting.  It is happiness because we see joy in people.  It is forgetting self and finding time for others.  It’s discarding the meaningless and stressing the true values.” - Thomas S. Monson

Here's hoping that Santa rode the rail to bring you all that you desire.  Merry Christmas!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/9/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 5 You Go Girl (Final Odds 4.10) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The King County Express - # 6 Whiskey Harbor (6.80) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Arma D'oro (3.90) - No Selection

Race 10 - # 1 Awesome Move (2.70) - "B+" Selection

I missed on both ends of my hopscotch Double, as neither of my two main ticket singles managed to find their way into the Exacta, let alone the winner's circle.  Which is just as well; because if you miss one, you might just as well miss the other also, at least as far as the bottom line is concerned.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 6 / 4 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $556.20 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/9/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

“Creativity is a wild mind and a disciplined eye.” - Dorothy Parker

Hopefully everyone reading this is enjoying their Summer up to this point (or, for those of you in Australia and other points south of the equator, your Winter).  Seeking an escape from the heat that has affected so much of the United States, at least vicariously, I'm turning my attention toward the Pacific Northwest, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Emerald Downs.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 30k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

# 1 Ms Parkside (Morning Line 8-5) is a perfect two-for-two since being claimed away from Trainer Frank Lucarelli and joining the barn of Trainer Justin Evans.  Certainly having the meet's leading rider, Jockey Luis Negron, on her back for those two encounters has contributed to Ms Parkside's recent success.  But despite the face that Ms Parkside is in top form and relishing her new surroundings, I'm going to leave Ms Parkside off my main ticket today.

My reasoning is that, unless there's a clear price horse that you like in some other leg of the sequence, it makes little economic sense to use both Ms Parkside and the runner who shapes up to be her primary competition in this event, # 3 Our Lyla Grace (ML 3-1) on the same ticket.  Yes, this is horse racing and anything can happen; but in my opinion one of those two distaff runners is going to win this race.

So why not use both?  Again, if I could settle on a price horses later in this sequence I would use both.  But since I can't, using both Ms Parkside and Our Lyla Grace means doubling the cost of my main ticket in the hopes of collecting a payout that may not amount to much.

So having to decided to use only one of that pair on my main ticket, why Our Lyla Grace rather than Ms Parkside?  In my opinion, I think today's distance better suits Our Lyla Grace.  I also think that Our Lyla Grace holds a recent class edge over Ms Parkside; that is, Our Lyla Grace has been running well of late versus tougher competition than those whom Ms Parkside has been facing.  Finally, Ms Parkside strikes me as a need to lead type; that is, if Ms Parkside can't get the early lead, then she can't win.  Conversely, Our Lyla Grace has shown that she can win from virtually anywhere on the track.

So for me it'll be Our Lyla Grace solo on my main ticket, with Ms Parkside being used as a backup "C+" Selection.

RACE 8 - The King County Express $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 9 K R Rules (ML 4-1)

These are juveniles; colts and geldings that are just two years old.  I would blame no one for punching the ALL button for this contest and just moving on.  Personally, I decided to go four deep here on my main ticket, with # 2 Digital Soldier (ML 8-1) my "A" Selection.  Digital Soldier, one of three first time starters in this field, impresses me with both his morning workouts and his breeding; and, well, that 8-1 Morning Line is more than just little bit tempting.  EDIT - With the scratch of Tax Code in Race 9, I'll now be using main ticket singles in two races.  So, there's now no reason to sweat this contest, as I'll now be chickening out and punching the ALL button.

RACE 9 - OC 30k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 10 Tax Code (ML 5-2)

The male version of Race 7 above; and again I've narrowed the field down to two primary contenders; in this case, # 9 Brady Boy (ML 3-1) and # 10 Tax Code (ML 5-2).  However, unlike how I approached Race 7, in this leg I have no qualms about using the two top picks on the Morning Line.  My reasoning is based upon this event having a larger field than Race 7 (eleven runners versus seven, prior to scratches), which means that there will be more money in the pool being used on other entrants besides this pair.  Of course, everything sounds logical prior to the running; so we'll see how it plays out later today.  EDIT - And with that, Tax Code has been scratched.  So I'll be using Brady Boy solo on my main ticket.

RACE 10 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt

Once again I'm going ALL in on my main ticket; which makes the main ticket a hopscotch Daily Double, with singles in non-consecutive races and ALL in the other two events.  This contest has the smell of chaos, as none of the entrants was able to finish in the money last time out.  I made # 7 Big Galute (ML 4-1) my "A" Selection as Big Galute did finish in the Trifecta in his last two tries at this class level.  But, ultimately, I think that this could be anyone's race.

So with all that verbiage aside, here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	3			1	2,5,7
LEG 2	2,		1,3,4,5,6,7,8
LEG 3	9			8	1,2,6,7
LEG 4	7,	1,	2,3,4,5,6,8

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 1,7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3 with ALL with 9 with ALL $32.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 9 with 1,7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 8 with 1,7 $1.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2 with 9 with 7 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 1,2,6,7 with 7 $2.00

Total: $40.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:57 EDT / 4:57 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/27/23 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 2 Euromatic (Final Odds 24.30) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 6 Elegence N Tonic (1.90) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Sir Sterling (22.60) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - The Lady Slipper - # 10 Charlie's Penny (0.50*) - "A" Selection

The good news is that the race where I picked a long shot as my "A" Selection was won by a long shot.  Just not my long shot.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 6 / 4 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $4,700.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/27/23 Canterbury Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"When you reach a certain age in life, time becomes more important than money, and I think that happens in your 50s." - Jesse Ventura

As I continue to play the smaller race tracks with the fan-friendly take outs, I make my way Saturday to the Land of 10,000 Lakes; Shakopee, MN, to be more precise, where Canterbury Park is celebrating the opening day of its 2023 meet.  The featured race on the card is the $50k Lady Slipper, where we have an entrant seeking a three peat.  But more on that below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.

RACE 6 - OC 16k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 4 Reckoning Day (Morning Line 3-1)

Having your intended big ticket single scratch is definitely a sign.  A sign of what I'm not sure; but it's definitely a sign.  Anyway, lest I forget, allow me to note here for all those interested that the runners in this field that are in for the $16k claiming price are # 2 Euromantic (ML 12-1); #5 Colonel Klink (ML 5-1); and # 7 Lucky McCoy (ML 15-1).  Also running with a price tag on his head is # 8 Astronaut Oscar (ML 8-1); but because Astronaut Oscar is a Minnesota bred, claiming him will cost you $25k.

With my intended single guaranteed to not lose today, I chose to play this one solid, using the two runners that will almost certainly take the lion's share of the action.  Unfortunately, I just don't see anyway to get creative with this leg; though I do see plenty of ways to outsmart myself.  So for the opening leg in this sequence, I'm just going to take what the game is giving me, and hope for a formful result.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $10k B - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf

The B designation in the conditions above is that this is an N3L if your distaff runner is a Minnesota bred; otherwise, this race is for non-Winners of Two Lifetime.  Note that the only entrant in this field to have visited the winner's circle multiple times is the Minnesota bred # 6 Elegance N Tonic.

I've kept Morning Line Favorite # 7 Jewel Azul (ML 5-2) off my main ticket in this leg.  I don't like that Jewel Azul is oh-for-seven lifetime over this turf course; and I really don't like Jewel Azul's career record of one-for-twenty-seven, with that lone victory coming back in February, 2021.  So it's just two deep on my main ticket this leg, with the Morning Line Favorite being relegated to backup ticket status.

RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 7 Out Run'm (ML 6-1) and # 10 Eyes Flying Bye (ML 8-1)

Morning Line Favorite # 2 Silver Dash (ML 3-1) looks legitimate enough here; certainly legitimate enough for me to use on my main ticket.  But I'm going to get brave in this leg (perhaps excessively so) and make # 3 Sam Sez (ML  20-1) my "A" Selection for this leg.  Sam Sez is lightly raced, and Sam Sez's best outings have been over this main track with today's rider, Ezequiel Lara, on his back.  So those two go onto my main ticket, and you can be sure that I'll be using that pair in the intra-race exotics as well.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Lady Slipper $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 9 Ready to Runaway (ML 4-1)

By any objective measure, # 10 Charlie's Penny (ML 7-5) should be a main ticket single.  But I'm a sucker for runners in a stakes that have previously won that event.  Such is the case with # 7 Clickbait (ML 9-2); indeed, doubly so, as Clickbait was victorious in the Lady Slipper in both 2022 and 2021.  So while I may later regret doing so, I am doubling the cost of my main ticket by using both Charlie's Penny and Clickbait.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	3,		1	5,8	2,6,7
LEG 2	9,	8,	6	1	2,3,4,5,7
LEG 3	3,	2		8,9	1,4,5,6,11,12
LEG 4	10,	7			1,2,3,4,5,6,8

And below are the tickets that I've translated those Selections into, using a variation of the Steve Crist method:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 9 with 3 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 8,9 with 2,3 with 7,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 6,8,9 with 2,3 with 7,10 $12.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 5,8 with 8,9 with 2,3 with 7,10 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 2,3 with 7,10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 8,9 with 8,9 with 7,10 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,6,7 with 9 with 3 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,3,4,5,7 with 3 with 10 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 1,4,5,6,11,12 with 10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 3 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,8 $3.50

Total: $45.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 8:37 EDT / 5:37 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/25/23 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 5 Showthemoneyhoney (Final Odds 3.60) - "C+" Selection

Race 6 - # 4 Miss Wave (5.30) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 2 Strong Willed (3.60) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Scootscoot (9.60) - "C" Selections

Getting home only one of my main ticket selections is a pretty good sign that I did not have a good handle on the sequence.  Conversely, the fact that none of the winners in the sequence was the Post Time Favorite suggests that I was not alone in my befuddlement.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 4 / 2 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $2,220.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo