12/22/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 8 Koukla (Final Odds 1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Ashley's Bambino (8.90) - No Selection
Race 10 - The King Glorious - # 8 California Chrome (2.20*) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Woodmans Luck (5.80) - "C" Selection 

We couldn't have asked for a better start to the sequence, as our single "A" in the opening leg, Koukla, won her debut by over two lengths over # 7 Gouyen (5.10) who in turn was five lengths clear for Place.  But it all came apart in the next leg, as Jockey Rafael Bejarano wrapped up the last ever riding title at Hollywood Park with his fourth winner on the day by bringing home Ashley's Bambino.  California Chrome won the last ever stakes at Hollywood Park by over a half dozen lengths, while the final finale at BHP / HOL went to Woodmans Luck, who won the photo over # 11 Depreciable (4.40).

So not one of our better efforts, as we only got one "A" selection to cross the wire ahead of the rest of the field; which means that our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $60.00.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 8 / 8 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $751.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

EDITED to add the video of the Hollywood Park finale.

12/22/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview

And so we reach the end; the final day of racing for Hollywood Park.  I really don't have anything to say here; since I've never been to Hollywood Park myself, I have no personal memories of the place that I can share.  Rather, I'll just defer to others, much more eloquent than myself, to express what Hollywood Park has meant to them through the years.  So we'll just move on, keeping in mind that change is inevitable, except from a vending machine; and with that, offer our thoughts on the final Hollywood Park Pick Four.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 8 Koukla (Morning Line 3-1)

C's

# 4 Steal the Lute (ML 7-2)
# 6 Zensational Beauty (ML 5-2)

I wasn't impressed with any of the three experienced runners in this field, as I feel that each would need to make a big step forward in order to win.  Koukla, Steal the Lute, and Zensational Beauty are trained by (respectively) John Sadler, Bob Baffert, and Peter Miller.  All three trainers are top notch at having their runners ready to roll at first asking.  I gave Koukla the nod over the other two on the basis of her sire, Northern Afleet.

RACE 9 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 4 Pulpit's Express (ML 9-5)
# 7 Wings of Mojave (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Full Instinct (ML 7-2)
# 6 Volkonsky (ML 4-1)

I gave a lot of thought to singling Pulpit's Express here; but Trainer John Sadler has just a 10% Winning Percentage with runners returning from a two-to-six month vacation, so I thought it more prudent to spread.  Wings of Mojave made a nice move forward in his last start, and Trainer Vann Belvoir does well in spotting his returning victors.  Full Instinct is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, and could be the speed of the speed here; while Volkonsky could be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace should totally collapse.

RACE 10 - [S] The King Glorious $200K - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 2 Pray Hard (ML 4-1)
# 9 Aotearoa (ML 5-2)

C's

# 5 Alpine Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 California Chrome (ML 3-1)
# 10 Better Bet (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 4 Mass Transit (ML 6-1)

Pray Hard is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who has been winning all the other stakes this meet; it would be fitting for him to win the last one ever over this main track.  Aotearoa is probably better suited to the grass; but he does have a win over the synthetic at Del Mar, and he'll certainly appreciate the class relief.

California Chrome has had a couple of troubled trips since winning The Graduation Stakes in July; perhaps he'll do better today.  Alpine Luck and Better Bet are a pair of stakes winners trained by Mike Harrington, who knows a thing or two about winning at this level with long shot runners.

RACE 11 - Alw 25000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Moonlit Meteor (ML 8-1)
# 9 Danderek (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Depreciable (ML 7-2)
# 12 Insideondoutside (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Anythingscookin (ML 8-1)
# 5 Woodmans Luck (ML 6-1)
# 6 Soul Candy (ML 8-1)
# 8 Mr. Candy Bar (ML 8-1)

Had he drawn in, I would have really liked # 13 No Contingency (ML 8-1) here.

Danderek (GB), Depreciable, and Insideondoutside have all defeated open claimers in one of their last two races on the grass at a distance equal to or within a half furlong of today's event.  Moonlit Meteor is a lightly raced horse with a victory over this turf course; he could take another step forward today.  

Anythingscookin could steal this one on the front end.  Woodmans Luck fits the class level, but is winless on the turf; note that Trainer Vladimir Cerin has a positive ROI when moving his runners from plastic to grass.  Soul Candy has a win in four tries over this turf course, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief.  Mr. Candy Bar has earned Beyer Speed Figures of late that could win against this field, though he seems to be rather reluctant to cross the wire first when the opportunity presents itself.

Rather than list all the tickets here (as has been my custom) I'll just state that I'll be playing this in my normal fashion, Steve Crist style.  Play a ticket for one dollar with all the "A" contenders; that should cost you $16.00.  Then play four tickets for fifty cents using the "A" contenders in three of the four legs and the "C" contenders in the other; those should cost you $44.00; making the Total Cost of our Pick Four Play today $60.00.

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:05 EST / 4:05 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/15/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Teasing Moment (Final Odds 15.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Sweetest Secret (54.90) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Playa Del Rey - # 2 Teddy's Promise (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Bourne Hot (1.40*) - "A" Selection

The Race 6 - Race 7 Double of Teasing Moment and Sweetest Secret paid $1,636 for a deuce (out of a total pool of $19,974).  While I might be able to delude myself into thinking that I could have had one of those horses on my tickets, the only way that I could have had both horses would have been if I had bought both races, or if I had just automatically played all horses that were making the equipment change to Blinkers On.  Incidentally, whatever Horsesanddivorces was running on today, it might be a good idea to give her less of it the next time.

As chaotic as Races 6 and 7 were, that's how formful Races 8 and 9 were, with the two Post Time Favorites winning clear and joining together for a $2 Double that paid $7.40 (out of a total pool of $103,189).  But for us that was too little too late, as our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $56.00.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of  9 / 6 / 2 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $1,467.80 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/15/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview

We're getting close to the finish line for Hollywood Park, as we're just a week away from the final Sunday of thoroughbred racing at the Inglewood, California racetrack.  No time for sentimentality now, however, as we turn our attention to today's Late Pick Four.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k- Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Amina Perfect (Morning Line 8-1)
# 6 Sugar High Kaylin (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 1 Rich in Tradition (ML 5-1)
# 5 Full of Spice (ML 8-1)
# 10 Bab's Rules (ML 9-2)
# 12 Blazing Dancer (ML 20-1)

The two horses I liked best in this field were the Also Eligibles (Graduator and Circular Logic) neither of whom drew in.  Amina Perfect is a first time starter in a field without a legitimate star.  Sugar High Kaylin just missed by a length at this level last time out; but as she runs for a trainer (Doug O'Neill) who usually has his horses ready to go at first asking, she may not show much improvement today.  Then again, against this field, she may not need to.

Rich in Tradition is oh-for-nineteen.  That would generally be an automatic toss, but the new rider coupled with the weak field suggests that she may win by default.  Toss out Full of Spice's last effort; Trainer Peter Miller took her blinkers off and Full of Spice took that as a sign that she was just out for a jog.  The blinkers go back on today.  

Bab's Rules and Blazing Dancer are both making the big drop from MSW (State Bred Division) to Maiden Claiming; the fact that neither could be bothered to pick up their feet in their prior efforts is what keeps them as "C" contenders rather than "A's".

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Horsesanddivorces (ML 3-1)
# 7 Real Bright Boots (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 2 Akiss Forarose (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kilted Tilt (Ire) (ML 4-1)

In a field of eight horses with just one career victory each, Horsesanddivorces is the only entrant to have their one career win come over this Hollywood Park turf course.  Not sure if she was injured in her last contest; the bullet work on the dirt at Santa Anita would suggest that she's in shape, but note that this is just the second time in her career that Horsesanddivorces is competing with a price tag on her head.

Real Bright Boots looks to be the controlling speed here; maybe today Jockey Rafael Bejarano can get her to hold onto the lead until the wire.  Akiss Forarose seems to have gotten too comfortable with in-the-money finishes; perhaps the turnback in distance will allow Jockey Corey Nakatani to get her to cross the wire first before she realizes that she's won.  Kilted Tilt (Ire) is a question mark as she may have just needed that last race, or she may be still be injured.  The bullet work over the main track on 12/9 suggests that she's ready to roll; but note that she also had a sharp work on 11/4 before finishing up the track in her start three days later.

RACE 8 - (F) The Playa Del Rey $100k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5)
# 3 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Rumor (ML 3-1)

C’s

# 5 There Is No Limit (ML 8-1)

Teddy's Promise and Rumor represent the class of the field.  Teddy's Promise is more of a horse for the course than Rumor (five-for-eleven lifetime over this main track vs one-for-three for Rumor) while Rumor has had more success at today's distance (three-for-four in her career vs one-for-five for Teddy's Promise).  

Judy In Disguise (GB) makes her debut on the Hollywood Park main track; she's one-for-two on synthetic surfaces elsewhere.  There Is No Limit is four-for-five in her career on this Hollywood main track, while being five-for-eight in her career at today's distance.  Granted, all that has come against weaker; but There Is No Limit looks to be a horse on the improve, and her Beyer Speed Figures suggest that she belongs against this field.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Bourne Hot (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Argentine (ML 20-1)
# 4 Home Run Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 8 Geldautomat (ML 6-1)
# 10 Closet E (ML 5-1)

Bourne Hot, trained by Doug O'Neil, took a nice step forward his last time out in his first career turf sprint, leading most of the way before being passed by Global View, winner of last month's Grade 3 Generous Stakes; a repeat of that effort should give Bourne Hot his first win today.

Argentine is a first time starter from a sire whose progeny do quite well at first asking.  Likewise for Home Run Kitten, who was sired by Kitten's Joy.  Geldautomat disappointed as the Post Time Favorite his last time out; he should appreciate the extra furlong of real estate that he gets to run over today.  Closet E is the other Doug O'Neil entrant, making his first start for the O'Neil barn after being claimed his last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Here's how it looks on tickets:

Play this one for a dollar:

RACE 6: 3, 6

RACE 7: 3, 7

RACE 8: 2, 3, 4

RACE 9: 2

Cost: $12.00

Play these for fifty cents:

RACE 6: 1, 5, 10, 12

RACE 7: 3, 7

RACE 8: 2, 3, 4

RACE 9: 2

Cost: $12.00

RACE 6: 3, 6

RACE 7: 2, 8

RACE 8: 2, 3, 4

RACE 9: 2

Cost: $6.00

RACE 6: 3, 6

RACE 7: 3, 7

RACE 8: 5

RACE 9: 2

Cost: $2.00

RACE 6: 3, 6

RACE 7: 3, 7

RACE 8: 2, 3, 4

RACE 9: 3, 4, 8, 10

Cost: $24.00

TOTAL COST: $56.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/14/13 BHP R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

City Chapel, the longshot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following, made his way down state Saturday to compete in Race 4 at Hollywood Park.  The contest, run at a distance of six and a half furlongs over the plastic main track, was a Starter Allowance with the following conditions:

For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $12,500 Or Less In 2013 And Have Not Won Two Races Since August 15, 2013.

So this was a step up the class ladder for City Chapel from the conditioned claimers against which he had competed in his last couple of races; and that's before factoring in the generally tougher competition found among the thoroughbreds in Southern California when compared to their Northern California brethren.  Still, City Chapel (Final Odds 36.20) did not embarrass himself, racing mid-pack throughout; in fact, City Chapel finished fifth, right smack in the middle of the nine horse field.

For his efforts, City Chapel's fifth place finish earns $500 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to $52,515.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/8/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 1 Crushed Velvet (Final Odds 1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 3 Amazing Hearted (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 3 Rocked Twice (2.50) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express - # 1 Boat Trip (3.80) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 6 Senza Fina (6.60) - "C" Selection

We singled "A's" in two races (Race 1 and Race 3) who weren't the Morning Line Favorites, and by the Grace of The Almighty they both came through for us.  We also got a non-Favorite home in the Hollywood Turf Express, a race that was so tight it featured a Triple Dead Heat for Place.  Getting "A"s" safely home in the first four legs left us alive to five horses in the finale.  For the record, here are the fifty cent Will Pays for the four we were alive to who did not win:

# 2 - Hey Pretty Girl (3.30) - $457.20
# 3 - Yesterday Sings (16.20) - $1483.20
# 4 - Exotic Behavior (1.60*) - $236.60
# 5 - Perched (2.90) - $304.80

Senza Fina is the horse that we were alive to that did win, completing the correct Pick Five sequence of  1 / 3 / 3 / 1 / 6  which paid out $686.85 for a fifty cent wager, thus giving us a Net Profit for our play of $618.85.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/8/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview

We turn our attention to the left coast today, as we take a run at Sunday's Pick Five at Hollywood Park.  All five races are sprints, and three of the five are for two year olds.

RACE 1 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Crushed Velvet (Morning Line 5-2)

C’s

# 2 Lady Bugatti (ML 4-1)
# 3 Artemis (ML 2-1)

Artemis ran well in her debut last month, taking the show after a poor start.  Normally she would be a solid “A” contender.  But Artemis is trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, and, typically, Hollendorfer has his charges ready to roll first time out; so if they don’t win their debut, they tend not to win at second asking.

Crushed Velvet (trained by Bob Baffert) is making her debut and draws the rail; generally speaking, this is not a good combination.  Factor in that the rail has not fared well in sprints during this final Hollywood Park meet and our decision to make Crushed Velvet a single “A” contender looks, well, rather odd.  But Jockey Martin Garcia has been hot this meet, and just yesterday, in Race 2 over this track, Garcia brought home a Baffert trained two year old making his debut from the rail in a six furlong sprint.  So here’s hoping that the Garcia/Baffert duo can do it again today.

RACE 2 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Amazing Hearted (ML 5-2)
# 6 Charlie’sboywins (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 2 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
# 5 First Strike (ML 7-2)

Charlie’sboywins has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and it was earned over this main track at a distance of six and a half furlongs against N2X Optional Claimers.  I personally think that Charlie’sboywins is an excellent play in the Win Pool in this event, though I suspect that he won’t go off at odds quite so generous as his 6-1 Morning Line.

Amazing Hearted broke his maiden in his debut over this main track, and then won at today’s level in his next contest.  The step back in his last race could be a concern; for while the rise in class offers a reasonable excuse, we are talking about a five year old gelding with only three lifetime races, suggesting that he’s no stranger to health issues.  But if Amazing Hearted can run back to his effort two starts back he’ll get his picture taken once again.

Carbonite is three-for-five in his career over this main track; but this is a step up the class ladder.  First Strike has captured the Place three of the five times that Trainer Robertino Diodoro has brought him over from Arizona to Hollywood Park.  During the summer Diodoro brought First Strike to Del Mar and watched him win clear against $32k open claimers at odds of 15-2.

RACE 3 - Md $50k- Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Rocked Twice (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 2 Fulmerized (ML 2-1)

EDIT - # 4 Smiley Eagle (ML 5-1) has been scratched from today’s race.

Rocked Start is making her third career start, but first against maiden company.  Rocked Twice has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance, and Trainer Kory Owens does quite well when shipping horses in from Arizona.  Rocked Twice’s grandsire is In Excess (Ire) which suggests that the synthetic surface should not prevent any difficulties.

# 2 Fulmerized should be quick out of the gate, especially with the addition of blinkers.  But Fulmerized’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, does not do well with maidens making their second start.

RACE 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express $100k - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)
# 2 No Silent (ML 3-1)
# 3 Chips All In (ML 9-5)
# 5 Unbridled’s Note (ML 8-5)

C’s

None

Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are the class of the field, as they each have career earnings on grass of over $300k.  Boat Trip and No Silent are the local heros, as they each sport career records of three wins in four tries over the Hollywood Park turf course, while Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are a combined oh-for-one over the same surface.  This one looks very competitive on paper; we’ll see how it plays out at the track.

RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k- Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Hey Pretty Girl (ML 5-1)
# 4 Exotic Behavior (ML 9-5)
# 5 Perched (2-1)

C’s

# 3 Yesterday Sings (ML 10-1)
# 6 Senza Fina (ML 8-1)

Hey Pretty Girl is a first timer going for Hollendorfer who, as previously mentioned, does quite well with those.  Exotic Behavior (trained by Bob Baffert) and Perched (trained by Doug O’Neill) are both competing for the first time with a price tag on their heads.  Senza Fina is another making the big drop from MSW to Md Clm; however, unlike Exotic Behavior and Perched, Senza Fina was unable to finish in the money against the non-claimers.  Yesterday Sings was a tough cut from the “A” contender ranks to the “C” level; I expect to put a few bucks on her nose in the Win Pool just in case, especially if I should still be alive going into this final leg and she’s in a position to blow up my tickets.

OK, that's the analysis.  We'll be playing all tickets today for fifty cents.  Normally we'll play the all "A's" ticket for a dollar, but as we're using single "A's" in two of the five legs who are not the Morning Line Favorites, I think we'll get a fair enough price should the ticket pay off without having to double up on it.  And also note that I'm posting this more than an hour before first post; so if there are any key scratches, the below will likely be changed.  So with all that, here's how today's tickets look:

RACE 1: 1

RACE 2: 3, 6

RACE 3: 3

RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5

RACE 5: 2, 4, 5

Cost: $12.00

RACE 1: 2, 3

RACE 2: 3, 6

RACE 3: 3

RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5

RACE 5: 2, 4, 5

Cost: $24.00

RACE 1: 1

RACE 2: 2, 5

RACE 3: 3

RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5

RACE 5: 2, 4, 5

Cost: $12.00

RACE 1: 1

RACE 2: 3, 6

RACE 3: 2

RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5

RACE 5: 2, 4, 5

Cost: $12.00

RACE 1: 1

RACE 2: 3, 6

RACE 3: 3

RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5

RACE 5: 3, 6

Cost: $8.00

TOTAL COST: $68.00

Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park Sunday is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/6/13 Hollywood Park Race 7 - Results

And we have a winner!

Dubai You X Y Z (Final Odds (2.00*) stalked the pace in the early going, took the lead with approximately a furlong to go, and won by a length and a quarter, paying $6.00 / $3.40 / $2.80.  I hope you all had it with me (and since he got bet down from his 7-2 Morning Line to be the Post Time Favorite, I'm trusting that at least some of you had it with me).

For those interested, a replay of the race may be viewed over at Bloodhorse.com, while the chart of the race may be viewed here (Equibase style) and here (Daily Racing Form format).

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

12/6/13 Hollywood Park Race 7 - Preview

Today’s 7th Race @ Hollywood Park is DRF.com's Race of the Day, so you can get free Past Performances at their website, along with video analysis by a couple of guys who actually know what they're talking about.  Due to other obligations I don't expect to be making any multi-race wagers today.  However, Hollywood Park’s Race 7 is such a near perfect example of a race being written for a specific horse that I thought it was worth commenting upon here.

The conditions for Race 7 are as follows:

Three year olds and upward:

1) Which have never won $10,000 three times (other than in maiden races, or claiming races, or races restricted to state bred horses); OR

2) Which have never won four races; OR

3) Which have not won a race at a mile or over since May 1, 2012; OR

4) Which will run for a claiming price of $80,000.

OK; last condition first: if you’re willing to risk having your horse purchased for $80k, you can enter your horse in this event.  In fact, three of the seven horses entered in this field (# 1 El Commodore (Morning Line 5-2); # 2 Code of Conduct (ML 4-1); and # 4 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 12-1)) will be competing with the $80k price tag on their heads.

But suppose you’re the connections of # 6 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 7-2) (and, by the way, isn’t that a great name for a horse?) and you don’t want to take a chance on having your horse claimed away; then what?  Dubai You X Y Z has won five career races, so he doesn’t meet condition number two.  Four of his five wins were for more than ten grand in races that don’t meet the exception list in condition number one, so that condition is a no go. 

So what about condition number three?  Well, as it turns out, the last time Dubai You X Y Z won a race at a distance of a mile or longer was on April 27, 2012; just a few days before the May 1, 2012 cutoff.  Pretty convenient, huh?

Obviously, race conditions don’t write themselves.  They’re drawn up by the track’s racing secretary, in consultation with the other track officials.  So it’s a pretty safe bet that the May 1, 2012 date wasn’t just picked at random, but rather was chosen in order to give the connections of Dubai You X Y Z an event that they could enter their horse in that was neither a stakes nor one where the horse could be claimed.  And there’s nothing nefarious nor underhanded about it; it is, in fact, the racing secretary’s job to ensure that all horses on the grounds have at least one race every few weeks that they are eligible to enter.

Also keep in mind that the fact that the racing secretary has written a race specifically with Dubai You X Y Z in mind is no guarantee that the horse will win.  This is a pretty competitive field, and it contains at least a couple of Graded Stakes placed entrants.  But I personally like his chances against this field, and I expect to have a few bucks on Dubai You X Y Z’s nose at Post Time (which, incidentally, is 6:33 EST / 3:33 PST).

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/24/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 6 Dunmore East (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 2 Julio's Gold (2.80*) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Becky Lou (7.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Indianapolis (3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Magic Number (4.70*) - "A" Selection

We started well.  We ended well.  In between we did, well, not so well.

No surprises in the curtain jerker as our two "A" selections formed the Exacta.  Julio's Gold just ran everyone off their feet in Race 2, leading the pack from gate to wire despite the class leap from $12.5K N2L to open $16K.  While her victory came as a surprise to us it certainly didn't shock the betting public, as they bet this filly (who was fourth choice on the Morning Line in a field of seven) down to the Post Time Favorite.

As expected, Need You Now (Ire) (0.90*) had things all her own way in the early going of Race 3.  Unfortunately for us, Need You Now never got comfortable on the lead, setting frantic fractions of 23.70 and 47.00 while leading by eight lengths at the half.  Needless to say, she couldn't maintain that pace, and finished out of the money.

Our single "A" in Race 4, Snuggley Bear (5.40) didn't win but made us proud, taking the Place just a length behind one of Baffert's first time starters.  We ended the sequence as we started, with one of our two "A" selections winning Race 5.

As you all already know, starting well and ending well doesn't get it done; you need to hit on every note to cash on multi-race plays.  We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $80.00.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of  6 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $2,119.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/24/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview

A cold day throughout most of the United States today.  Aqueduct decided to cancel its card due to high winds, while Zia Park in New Mexico had its weekend of racing wiped out by snow (look for Zia Park to run their big races scheduled for today on Wednesday, Thanksgiving Eve).  Meanwhile, SoCal is (relatively) warm and dry; so we turn our attention there and take a stab at today's Pick Five.

RACE 1 - Clm $10K N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Macias (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Dunmore East (ML 7-5)

C’s

# 2 Da Ruler (ML 4-1)

Macias and Dunmore East are both making a significant class drop from their last respective races, going from open claimers to compete against horses that have yet to win in 2013.  The speed figures for these two put them significantly ahead of the rest of the field; however, as neither has ever finished in the money at Hollywood Park, I thought it prudent to slot Da Ruler in as a contingency pick.

RACE 2 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Catch Lorraine (ML 6-1)
# 5 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
# 6 No Tricks for Jack (ML 3-1)

C’s

# 7 Addendum (ML 5-2)

Catch Lorraine has been showing steady improvement in her comeback, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief.  Rossi Reserve defeated slightly cheaper her last time out.  Rossi Reserve is also the only filly in this field with multiple wins over the Hollywood Park main track.  Today will be Rossi Reserve’s first start without an apprentice jockey on her back since August 2.  No Tricks for Jack has twice won at this level in her last six races.  Addendum’s recent form is acceptable if you toss out her last race which was on the turf; but the fact that she is just one-for-ten on synthetic surfaces, and oh-for-six for her career at Hollywood Park, downgrades her to “C” contender status in my eyes. 

RACE 3 - (F) Alw C - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Need You Now (Ire) (ML 7-5)

C’s

# 1 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 2-1)

This is an Allowance Race for three year old fillies which have never won a Graded Stakes; so this is a stakes-caliber event.  Need You Now should enjoy a large enough pace advantage to have things all her own way on the front end; I expect her to lead this small field around the track, going gate to wire.  Judy In Disguise is (in my opinion) the only horse in this field that can compete with Need You Now on a class level; but Judy In Disguise gets downgraded to “C” status as she would much rather sprint than cover today’s distance (and yes, I know Judy In Disguise does well charging down the hill at Santa Anita; but as you can see from her form that ability has yet to carry over when she has to run a flat mile).

RACE 4 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 9-2)

C’s

Everyone else

This is anybody’s race.  Six of the nine entrants are first time starters; two of which (# 2 Indianapolis (ML 5-2) and # 4 Icy Ride (ML 5-1)) are going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins about a quarter of the time that he sends out a first time starter.  Two of the other first time starters (# 6 Ian Street (ML 8-1) and # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 8-1)) are sired by Street Boss (by Street Cry (Ire)), whose descendants win at a 20% clip when making their debuts.

I decided to slot Snuggley Bear into the single “A” slot primarily to keep the cost of this play reasonable.  But I also like Snuggley Bear because horses that have taken the Place their last time out against MSW company tend to outperform first time starters.  I also like that, of the three experienced runners in this field, Snuggley Bear is the only one with a Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance above 400.  The presence of Rafael Bejarano on Snuggley Bear’s back today adds to the appeal.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10K - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Swiss Bliss (ML 2-1)
# 7 Magic Number (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 3 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 6 Wink and Wish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Jeanne Marini (ML 6-1)

Swiss Bliss has taken the Place and Show often enough to lead one to believe that she’d rather not lead the pack home.  However, this field is such that she may find herself crossing the wire first simply by default.  Magic Number goes up against winners for the first time today; but her one career win did come in her one career race over this main track, along with being against older than these.

Wink and Wish could be the speed of the speed.  Both of her career Wins have been on a synthetic surface at today’s distance.  Jeanne Marini’s bullet work last week suggests that she’ll be ready to go today after a two month freshening.  Lil Cheyenne could be sitting in a good spot if the front runners blow the pace up.

OK, that's the analysis.  Here's how it looks on tickets:

Play this one for a dollar:

RACE 1: 4, 6

RACE 2: 4, 5, 6

RACE 3: 5

RACE 4: 7

RACE 5: 5, 7

Cost: $12.00

Play these for fifty cents:

RACE 1: 2

RACE 2: 4, 5, 6

RACE 3: 5

RACE 4: 7

RACE 5: 5, 7

Cost: $3.00

RACE 1: 4, 6

RACE 2: 7

RACE 3: 5

RACE 4: 7

RACE 5: 5, 7

Cost: $2.00

RACE 1: 4, 6

RACE 2: 4, 5, 6

RACE 3: 1

RACE 4: 7

RACE 5: 5, 7

Cost: $6.00

RACE 1: 4, 6

RACE 2: 4, 5, 6

RACE 3: 5

RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9

RACE 5: 5, 7

Cost: $48.00

RACE 1: 4, 6

RACE 2: 4, 5, 6

RACE 3: 5

RACE 4: 7

RACE 5: 3, 6, 8

Cost: $9.00

TOTAL COST: $80.00

Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/17/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 4 No Contingency (Final Odds 8.90) - No Selection

Race 2 - # 3 Tama County (4.70) - "A" Selection

Race 3 - The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - # 1 Warren's Veneda (1.30*) - "A" Selection

Race 4 - # 6 Lucky Views (4.10) - No Selection

Race 5 - # 4 Holy Candy (2.30*) - "A" Selection

I had liked No Contingency's steadily rising Beyers and the drop in class; but he was not on our tickets because I did not like his failure to finish in the money in any of his three prior tries on synthetic surfaces.  Tama County again came from out of nowhere to win, in a manner that I have not seen since Forego retired.  Jockey Joe Talamo solved the rail problem by swinging Warren's Veneda off the rail into the three path to take the lead in the stretch and hold on for the victory. 

I didn't think much of Lucky Views, going as he was for a trainer (Michael Machowsky) with just one visit to the Winner's Circle the last twenty-nine times that he sent out a first time starter.  Lucky Views is also out of a sire (Lucky Pulpit) whose progeny have just a .10 Winning Percentage in their debuts; a stat that does not inspire confidence.  So congrats to those who saw something in this two year old gelding that I did not and slotted him in the top spot on their tickets. 

I wrote in the preview that both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012.  Well they sure didn't prove that today, as Admission (3.80) beat only one horse to the wire; that one being Blu Jon (3.80).

All things considered this was not one of our better showings, as we could only get three "A's" home, while having no part of the winner in the other two legs.  We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $50.00.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of  4 / 3 / 1 / 6 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $2,745.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/17/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview

Taking a stab at Sunday's Pick Five @ Hollywood Park; and, I must confess, the sequence was more challenging than I thought it was going to be, considering both the race conditions and field sizes.  On the positive side, I think I found a few vulnerable favorites; on the negative side, races with vulnerable favorites tend to be wide open, if not chaotic.

Ultimately I decided to go with a strategy that is thin on A's but wide on C's.  Such a strategy gives us an opportunity to be well rewarded if we are correct in our opinions, or even just a little bit wrong.  Conversely, such a strategy also gives us the opportunity to be really screwed if our opinions are even just a little bit more than a little bit wrong.

So with all the that, he's how I see the first five races today at Hollywood Park:

RACE 1 - Clm $40K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 7 He's Not Bluffin (Morning Line 9-2)

C's

# 1 Kafister (ML 3-1)
# 3 One Firm Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tahoe Flash (ML 3-1)

He's Not Bluffin is the invader from the North, coming from Emerald Downs where he won half his contests, including a restricted stakes his last time out.  I like the trainer stats that conditioner Vann Belvoir brings to the table, and I like that He's Not Bluffin prefers to sit off the pace, as this one seems to have a lot of early speed.  Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on his back today, and hopefully she'll have him coming late and will get him up in time.

RACE 2 - Clm $16K N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 3 Tama County (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Blue Collar Boy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Bobby Flay (ML 7-2)
# 8 As Good as Gold (ML 4-1)

Blue Collar Boy and As Good as Gold should be battling on the front end early.  As there is other early speed here there should be an honest pace; though there is the possibility that if one of those two falter, the other could steal it.  Tama County is facing winners for the first time; but the job he did closing his last two races on dirt should give him a pace edge on today's cushion surface.

RACE 3 - [S] (F) The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - Seven and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 1 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)
# 3 Ciao Bella Luna (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sister Kate (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Curvy Cat (ML 3-1)
# 4 Qiaona (ML 3-1)

Warren's Veneda has done well on both real and fake dirt, and even earned a victory her one time over this main track.  But she's drawn the rail, and that hasn't been a good place to be so far in sprints in this meet.  Ciao Bella Luna is a Graded Stakes winner on synthetics, while Sister Kate could get loose on the lead and steal this one on the front end.  This one really looks like it could be anybody's race.

RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Ron's Boy (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Unusual Fleet (ML 4-1)
# 5 Super Reagan (ML 4-1)
# 7 Fourth Generation (ML 8-1)
# 8 This Cat's Awesome (ML 3-1)

Ron's Boy is one of three experienced runners in this field; the other five, including our four C's, are all first time starters.  Ron's Boy flashed some early speed in his debut against open company, and any reasonable improvement off that effort will give him a Beyer Speed Figure right around par for this class. 

RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's 

# 4 Holy Candy (ML 5-2)
# 6 Northern Iowa (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 5-1)
# 2 Blu Jon (ML 4-1)
# 5 Admission (ML 5-1)
# 7 Curly Top (ML 4-1)

Holy Candy would be the lone "A" here if not for the oh-for-five record on synthetics.  Northern Iowa has shown the ability to be competitive at this level.  Both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012.  Appealing Tale has tactical speed but may not have enough pace to chase.

OK, that's the analysis.  Here's how it looks on tickets:

Play this one for $1.50:

RACE 1: 7

RACE 2: 3

RACE 3: 1, 3, 5

RACE 4: 4

RACE 5: 4, 6

Cost: $9.00

Play these for fifty cents:

RACE 1: 1, 3, 5, 6

RACE 2: 3

RACE 3: 1, 3, 5

RACE 4: 4

RACE 5: 4, 6

Cost: $12.00

RACE 1: 7

RACE 2: 1, 5, 8

RACE 3: 1, 3, 5

RACE 4: 4

RACE 5: 4, 6

Cost: $9.00

RACE 1: 7

RACE 2: 3

RACE 3: 2, 4

RACE 4: 4

RACE 5: 4, 6

Cost: $2.00

RACE 1: 7

RACE 2: 3

RACE 3: 1, 3, 5

RACE 4: 1, 5, 7, 8

RACE 5: 4, 6

Cost: $12.00

RACE 1: 7

RACE 2: 3

RACE 3: 1, 3, 5

RACE 4: 4

RACE 5: 1, 2, 5, 7

Cost: $6.00

TOTAL COST: $50.00

Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/10/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 7 Rossi Reserve (Final Odds 4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 2 - # 4 Echo Zulu (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes - # 1 Shared Belief (1.50) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Ricspretentiousgal (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 5 Anita Marie (3.40) - "C" Selection

Normally when we hit on all legs but one on one or more of our tickets we bemoan our bad fortune; but the fact is that today we had a lot of good fortune that allowed us to still be alive going into the last leg of the sequence.  We really weren't that fond of Rossi Reserve, and nearly left her totally off the ticket (incidentally, congrats to Trainer Javier Sierra for breaking a losing streak on synthetic surfaces that had extended beyond twenty-five contests); we won an extremely tight photo in Race 2 where the only point in the entire race that Echo Zulu was ahead was at the wire; and we won another tight photo with Ricspretentiousgal in Race 4.  So we truly have nothing to complain about today as far as luck goes, as we got more action for our money than we actually deserved.  As far as the bottom line goes, the Net Loss on our play is $72.00.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the two horses we were alive to in the final leg were $288.65 for # 4 Tribal Peace (3.20) and $352.10 for # 8 Tribal Dress (3.10*).  As for the actual payout, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of  7 / 4 / 1 / 3 / 5  were rewarded with a return of $339.75 for their half dollar wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/10/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - The Play

I decided not to single Tribal Dress in Race 5, but I still added a couple more "C" contenders, just in case.  Here's how our Contenders Lists looks for Sunday's Pick Five at Hollywood Park:

RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)

C's

# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)

RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)

RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)

C's

None

RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Bas (ML 15-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)
# 10 She's a Go Girl (ML 8-1)

And here's how it shakes out in tickets:

Play this one for one dollar:

RACE 1: 2, 3

RACE 2: 4

RACE 3: 1, 2, 4

RACE 4: 3

RACE 5: 4, 8

Cost: $12.00

Play these for fifty cents:

RACE 1: 4, 7

RACE 2: 4

RACE 3: 1, 2, 4

RACE 4: 3

RACE 5: 4, 8

Cost: $6.00

RACE 1: 2, 3

RACE 2: 2, 3, 7

RACE 3: 1, 2, 4

RACE 4: 3

RACE 5: 4, 8

Cost: $18.00

RACE 1: 2, 3

RACE 2: 4

RACE 3: 1, 2, 4

RACE 4: 1, 2, 4, 5

RACE 5: 4, 8

Cost: $24.00

RACE 1: 2, 3

RACE 2: 4

RACE 3: 1, 2, 4

RACE 4: 3

RACE 5: 1, 5, 9, 10

Cost: $12.00

TOTAL COST: $72.00

Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/10/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview

While I liked the look of the card at Gulfstream Park Saturday, I didn't like the look of the weather; I figure there'll be time enough to deal with the South Florida rains.  Having not seen anything I liked on Saturday's card at Hollywood Park, I decided to focus my efforts on Sunday's Pick Five in SoCal.

RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Contenders:

# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)
# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)

Sugar Spice projects to be the quickest out of the gate in this field.  Sugar Spice hit a hot streak after first donning blinkers, winning three out of four, with the only setback coming on the wet dirt at Santa Anita.  She tried a first level allowance two starts back and was outclassed, though she was still able to make a clear lead at the start.  Sugar Spice was back at today’s level in her last start, where she took the Place as the Post Time Favorite. 

Sugar Spice is definitely an “A”; Inner Groove, taking a big class drop, is probably an “A” as well.  Tempted to drop Rossi Reserve from the contenders list, as conditioner Javier Sierra does not often get his picture taken after contests.  On the other hand, Rossi Reserve just missed her last two times out at this approximate class level; so it’s probably a good idea to make room for her on the ticket.

RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Contenders:

# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)

Echo Zulu, trained by Peter Miller, is getting some huge class relief here after competing in ungraded stakes in three of his last four contests.  Takem by Surprise should be the early front runner and could get loose on the lead.  Heyyoucan (also trained by Miller) and Clouds Clearing both took the Place in separate contests at this class level in their respective last starts.

Echo Zulu could be a single “A” based on the class drop; but my confidence in two year olds, especially at this level, isn’t especially high.  Will probably pair up in the “A” category with the other part of the uncoupled Peter Miller entry, though Takem by Surprise deserves some consideration for that role as well, based upon his early speed.

RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

Contenders:

# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)

Kobe’s Back exited his debut a stakes winner after coming from dead last at the half to win the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes over this main track back in June.  It should be noted that, despite the way that victory was obtained, Kobe’s Back may not be a true closer in running style, but rather may have just been the victim of a poor break; note the bullet gate work on October 30.  So don’t be surprised if Kobe’s Back is closer to the pace in the early going in today’s event.

Papa Turf and Shared Belief each broke their maidens with Beyer Speed Figures that set them well apart from the rest of the field.  Shared Belief has the added bonus of having the best Tomlinson Rating in the field for today’s seven furlong distance.  I expect to be using all three contenders as “A’s”.

RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf

Contenders:

# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)

English Crossing, Fantastic Mizz, and Ricspretentiousgal all show a victory at this level or higher within the last three races in their form.  Meltarib took the Place behind Ricspretentiousgal her last time out with a trip that was far from smooth.  High Jinks (Brz) is the Wild Card here, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while adding blinkers.

Tempted to make the John Sadler trained Ricspretentiousgal a single “A” based upon the addition of Rafael Bejarano in the saddle (note that the Sadler/Bejarano duo has produced more than thirty percent winners over the past couple of years).  But there are several ways to go here, so this will be a game time decision.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Contenders:

# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)

Tribal Dress defeated older last time out, and took the place over this track at today’s distance against more expensive.  Firendesire took the Place at a higher class level last time out, and defeated cheaper two back.  Both of Tribal Peace’s victories have come over this main track; but they’ve also come against state-bred competition.  Anita Marie was claimed by Owner and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer her last time out for $25k; that was a quick love affair.  Still, the presence of Bejarano in the saddle suggests that Anita Marie deserves some consideration for the top spot.

Currently leaning towards making Tribal Dress a single “A” here; though her half-sister Tribal Peace may join her in that category.  If I do go single “A” here there’s a good chance that I’ll add a some more entrants to the “C” list.

Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST.  Good Lord willing, I’ll have my Pick Five tickets posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/13/12 BHP Race 2 - Key Race - Update

Key race 7/13/12 BHP Race 2, first noted here August 9, 2012, came back in full exactly one year to the day of its running:

Hyena - WIN - 8/8/12 DMR Race 1
Glad's Gals - 4th - 7/13/13 BHP Race 5
Snackable - WIN - 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Pursuitofparadise - SHOW - 8/16/12 DMR Race 2
Miss Luna - 8th - 9/12/12 FPX Race 5
Tangled Rock - 7th - 8/5/12 DMR Race 3

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/13/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results

It was the final Saturday in the final Spring / Summer Meet at Hollywood Park; and we did our best to make it a memorable one.

Race 7 kicked off the Late Pick Four, and we started our play on the right foot by bringing home one of our A contenders, # 3 Myfundsarelo (Final Odds 3.10), the first time starter for Trainer Craig Dollase.  Race 8, the A Gleam Handicap, saw our A selection, # 5 Teddy's Promise (1.30*) take the Place behind our C contender, # 7 Book Review (3.10).  So we were still alive, but we had to be perfect in the next race; our one A selection in that one had to Win.

And, thank the Good Lord, she did; as # 3 Emollient (1.20*) took to the grass like we hoped she would, winning Race 9, the American Oaks, by half a length over Place horse # 4 Emotional Kitten (8.00) (I told you those cats were tough on the grass).  Finally, the finale; Race 10, which saw the Morning Line 30-1 shot # 8 Citizen Jane (11.60) win for fun, finishing nearly four lengths in front of Place horse # 4 Calameera (2.90*).

Thus we have a Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 7 / 3 / 8 with a payout of $637.75 for a fifty cent wager.  Since our investment was $42, we netted a profit of $595.75.  May the Good Lord bless us as we spend it.

I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/13/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - The Play

All the analysis is in the prior post.  Here's how I decided to put it all together:

Play this one for one dollar:

RACE 7: 2, 3, 8

RACE 8: 5

RACE 9: 3

RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12

Cost: $12.00

Play these for fifty cents:

RACE 7: 1, 6, 9

RACE 8: 5

RACE 9: 3

RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12

Cost: $6.00

RACE 7: 2, 3, 8

RACE 8: 7

RACE 9: 3

RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12

Cost: $6.00

RACE 7: 2, 3, 8

RACE 8: 5

RACE 9: 1, 4, 5

RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12

Cost: $18.00

TOTAL COST: $42.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/13/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview

Today marks the final Saturday of the final Summer Meet for Hollywood Park.  They're offering a pretty good card today, with several stakes on the menu.  As per our usual, we'll be taking a look at today's Late Pick Four.

RACE 7 - [S]Md $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

I’ve got to say, this is a pretty weak field.  Four of the nine entrants are first time starters; generally speaking, you don’t find top notch horses making their debuts in claiming races, as no one wants to chance losing a good horse to another barn without seeing it compete at least once.  Of the five in this field that have raced before, only one has ever finished better than fifth.  So this is a contest where strong consideration should be given to just hitting the “ALL” button in any Pick Four or Pick Six wagers.

# 2 Starry Shark (Morning Line 5-1) makes his second career start after hopping at the break in his debut.  Starry Shark gets an upgrade in rider from an apprentice to Martin Garcia.

# 8 Public Interest (ML 3-1) is, like Starry Shark, a second time starter.  Also like Starry Shark, Public Interest experienced some problem with the gate in his debut; specifically, he didn’t want to leave it.  Hopefully, Public Interest’s connections have worked out that flaw in his game.  Public Interest’s primary appeal is that he possesses the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in this field.

# 3 Myfundsarelo (ML 5-2) makes his debut for Trainer Craig Dollase, whose Winning Percentages in the key angles (.37 for first start; .56 for first start in a Md Clm; .30 overall in Md Clm) would make this horse a must play in the multi-race wagers even if it turned out to actually be an alligator.

# 1 Italian Mirage (ML 12-1) has been working steady and working well for this debut since April.  

# 6 Rare Punch (ML 8-1) likewise shows a good workout pattern since April; having Talamo in the saddle adds to the appeal.  

# 9 Apache Ambush (ML 3-1) fired a bullet in his workout on the Fourth of July; and his Jockey/Trainer combo of Pedroza and Kruljac work well together (.15 Winning Percentage with an ROI of $3.07)

Again, this race seems to be screaming out for the “ALL” button; but a good case could also be made for a single play on Starry Shark, presuming the improvement normally seen in a horse making their second career start.  A decision will have to be made later.

RACE 8 - The A Gleam Handicap (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

# 7 Book Review (ML 4-1) has shown steady improvement (as recorded by her Beyer Speed Figures) in her three previous races since switching coasts and competing for the Baffert barn.  Book Review is coming off a five month vacation, but I don’t see that as a cause for concern, as Baffert usually has his horses ready to go after a good long rest (note the .29 Winning Percentage Baffert has when bringing a horse back from a three-to-six month freshening).

# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 7-2) should be quick early, and that could be key, as this contest doesn’t show a lot of early speed.  Reneesgotzip is a perfect three-for-three over the Hollywood main track, along with being a perfect four-for-four over synthetic surfaces.  This will be Reneesgotzip’s first start of 2013; but the fact that she won her career debut, and also won last September after a four month layoff, shows that she can fire right off the bench.

# 5 Teddy’s Promise (ML 5-2) experienced a pretty bad trip her last time out in the Desert Stormer Handicap.  Even with that trouble she still just missed, meaning that she’s just a little more than a length away from being a perfect five-for-her-last-five heading into this one.  Expert Teddy’s Promise to be stalking the pace early, and getting first run at the front runners.

I won’t be using # 2 Byrama (ML 3-1) in the top spot in any of my plays.  While I feel Byrama is a very talented filly, I think that her win last time out in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at nine furlongs underscores this girl’s desire for more distance; and I don’t believe that Byrama’s connections have done right by her by having her turn back to sprints.  I may be proven wrong at the end of the day, but I firmly believe that Byrama is better suited to two turn contests.

Right now it looks like I’ll be using Teddy’s Promise and Book Review as my A contenders, with Reneesgotzip as a C.  As far as intra-race exotics, I would bring in Byrama, but not in the top spot.  For example, an Exacta play could be:

Exacta Box: 5 / 7
Exacta Box: 1 / 5 / 7
Exacta Part Wheel: 5, 7 / 1, 2, 5, 7

Which, if played for a dollar, would have a total cost of fourteen bucks.

EDIT:  Reneesgotzip has been scratched from The A Gleam Handicap (Race 8).  Her Trainer, Peter Miller, had hinted Thursday that she might not run today. 

So that certainly changes the pace picture of the event.  Book Review prefers to come from behind; but now it looks as if there might not be enough pace for her to chase.  Teddy’s Promise just might find herself loose on the lead in this one.  This will be a decision for later, but I may make Teddy’s Promise my lone A here, and slot Book Review into a C contender slot.  We’ll see.

RACE 9 - The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf

The final running of The American Oaks at Hollywood Park.

If # 3 Emollient (ML 5-2) brings her A game from the East, this race is no contest.  While this is Emollient’s first time trying grass, having Empire Maker as her sire suggests that should be no problem.  Note that Emollient is a perfect two-for-two in races not run over a fast dirt track.  Also note that, while this is her first start outside the Eastern Time Zone, this will be the third race in a row in which she’ll have Mike Smith on her back.

If Emollient doesn’t bring her A game, then this becomes a wide open race in which anyone can win.  # 4 Emotional Kitten (ML 3-1) also invades from the East, having won three of her last four starts.  Emotional Kitten is a Kitten’s Joy offspring, and those cats are always tough on the grass.  Joel Rosario, who rode Emotional Kitten in her last two victories, opts not to make the trip to California today, which somewhat lessens the appeal.

# 1 Sarach (ML 9-2) and # 5 Scarlet Strike (ML 2-1) ran one-two their last time out in the Grade 2 Hollywood Handicap, with Sarach wiring the field and holding off the late charging Scarlet Strike by a length.  The additional distance today would seem to give Scarlet Strike the edge.  However, the fact that Scarlet Strike has disappointed as the odds-on favorite in each of her last two races, coupled with the fact that she has taken the Place and Show a total of ten times (with only two career wins) leads one to believe that this filly would rather hang than lead.

I expect to have Emollient as my lone A contender in this one.  I’ll probably just use the other three horses mentioned above as C’s, but that’s subject to change; because, again, if Emollient doesn’t bring out her best, any horse in this field is capable of winning.

RACE 10 (F)Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

# 4 Calameera (Morning Line 5-1) makes her second career start and first as a three year old.  Presuming normal growth and maturity, Calameera should improve enough on that 43 Beyer Speed figure she earned last November to post a number close to par today.  # 10 Harlan’s Trick (ML 7-2) had the lead in the stretch last time out, only to fade before hitting the wire.  As she’ll have a half-panel shorter distance to cover today, perhaps this time she’ll last.  # 8 Citizen Jane (ML 30-1) has the best last out Beyer in this field, earned against more expensive stock.  If her Post Time odds are even just a third of her Morning Line, it’ll be worth the value to put a couple of bucks on her nose.  # 12 Luna’s Light (ML 3-1) draws the far outside post, an ideal position for a filly making her debut.  Luna’s Light’s works have been steady, and Trainer Bill Spawr’s Winning Percentages in the key categories are too impressive to ignore.

Right now, I’m looking at Calameera and Harlan’s Trick as “A” contenders in my multi-race plays, with Citizen Jane and Luna’s Light as C’s.

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  I expect to have my Late Pick Four plays worked out and posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo