5/25/23 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 5 Showthemoneyhoney (Final Odds 3.60) - "C+" Selection

Race 6 - # 4 Miss Wave (5.30) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 2 Strong Willed (3.60) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Scootscoot (9.60) - "C" Selections

Getting home only one of my main ticket selections is a pretty good sign that I did not have a good handle on the sequence.  Conversely, the fact that none of the winners in the sequence was the Post Time Favorite suggests that I was not alone in my befuddlement.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 4 / 2 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $2,220.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/25/23 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Preview

“If you're not failing every now and again, it's a sign you're not doing anything very innovative.” - Woody Allen

It's definitely been awhile since I've posted a play involving this West Virginia track.  But there's a holiday weekend approaching in the US, and while that means lots of great stakes, I know that also means for many of you that they'll be no time for handicapping, as family and other activities are on the calendar.  For others, this could be an opportunity to pad the bankroll heading into three days of fun.   Regardless of the reason let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races.

RACE 5 - (F) [S] Md $7.5k - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

So the first handicapping question of the evening to be answered is how much faith should I place in the past performances of a class of runners notorious for being inconsistent?  Last time out, # 7 S S Casino Girl (ML 9-5) and # 5 Showthemoneyhoney (ML 2-1) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level.  One would therefore expect that these two would be the prime candidates to get their photo taken tonight; and the Morning Line odds certainly reflect that opinion.  So if I were to expect their form to hold, I would select either S S Casino Girl or Showthemoneyhoney as my top pick here, and then hope to catch a price in one of the other three legs.

But I'm going to go in a different direction in this contest, on the presumption that SS Casino Girl and Showthemoneyhoney are going to attract an extremely high percentage of the funds in the pool.  I'm going to roll the dice and make # 6 Lockdown Vanna (ML 10-1) my "A" Selection for this leg.  I like the class drop, I like the cutback in distance, and I really like the probability that Lockdown Vanna will be under bet.

If form holds, then I'll be spending the rest of this sequence alive only to a backup ticket, as that's where you'll find S S Casino Girl and Showthemoneyhoney in my play.  But should Lockdown Vanna come through, then I'll have an opportunity to connect the dots on a payout that will definitely be worth having.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] OClm 10000 - Seven Furlongs Dirt

The Starter Allowance piece of this contest's conditions is that, sometime over the past twenty-four months, the distaff runner must have started for a claiming price of $5k or less.  For those who note such things, the runners in this field who are in for the $10 claiming price are # 1 Got Your Number (ML 20-1); # 2 Grace Elizabeth (ML 4-1); and # 7 Moiraine (ML 12-1).

# 9 Secret Castle (ML 9-5) looks legit here, and probably should be a big ticket single.  But # 3 Castle of Caylee (ML 15-1) in my opinion merits attention; the question is, how much attention?  While I may later regret this, I'm going to double the cost of my main ticket by going two deep in this leg, pairing Castle of Caylee with Secret Castle in this battle of thrones.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 6 Nearest N Dearest (ML 9-2)

# 5 Sneaky Lynk (ML 6-1) and # 8 Love of Grace (ML 10-1) competed against each other multiple times while both were seeking career victory number one; and Sneaky Lynk and Love of Grace both appear to be in top form and ready to resume their personal duel.

Certainly the class dropping # 2 Strong Willed (ML 7-2) deserves serious consideration, especially in light of Strong Willed having raced above her conditions in each of her last two starts.  Strong Willed is making her first start of 2023; but she has won off just works in the past, specifically in her career debut.

I'm also going to toss # 7 Lucky Bop (ML 4-1) into the mix; though it's difficult to know how much of Lucky Bop's performance last time out was courtesy of competing on a sealed track.  It's a close call, but I'm going to give Lucky Bop a spot on my main ticket, making it four deep for me in this leg.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

And so we arrive (hopefully still alive) at the only race in the sequence not carded for state bred distaff runners.  I think it's clear that this race goes through the Morning Line Favorite, the shipper from Maryland, # 9 Notimelikepresent (ML 9-5).  The only question in my mind is should Notimelikepresent be a single on the main ticket.

Certainly # 2 Bubba G (ML 2-1) is very likely to improve with a cleaner trip; and # 3 Cherry's Cross (ML 5-1), who took the Show at this class level last time out, is displaying a pattern of steady improvement that shouldn't be ignored.  But I've chosen to leave those two off my main ticket.

However, I am going to slot # 7 Angelus Diamond (ML 12-1) into my main play.  Angelus Diamond appears to be a strong candidate to rebound going third off the layoff, perhaps returning to the form that he displayed when he took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Whether or not that effort will be good enough to defeat Notimelikepresent remains to be seen; but if Angelus Diamond should pull the upset, it will be at a very nice price.  So it's two deep for me in this leg as far as my main play is concerned.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	6,			5,7	1,4
LEG 2	9,	3		2	1,4,6,8
LEG 3	5,	8,	2,7		9,10
LEG 4	9,	7		2,3	1,4,5,6,8

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are the tickets into which those Selections have been translated:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 9 with 5 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 7,9 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 2,5,7,8 with 7,9 $8.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 7,9 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 5,8 with 7,9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 2,3 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 9 with 5 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,6,8 with 5 with 9 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 9,10 with 9 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 5 with 1,4,5,6,8 $2.50

Total: $37.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:53 EDT / 5:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/12/17 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 6 It's Bull Bat Time (Final Odds 4.80) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 1 Forest Night (2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Tampered Character (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Run Banner (1.80*) - "B" Selection

Not having It's Bull Bat Time on our big ticket was a costly error, as he had proven himself to be competitive with # 1 Breadman's Big Guy (4.40) (one of our two "A" Selections in the opening leg) in each of his prior two starts, and therefore should have been granted stronger consideration.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which we were alive in the finale:

# 4 Start Your Engine (3.70) - $234.35 - Finish: 2nd

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 1 / 2 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $139.50 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/12/17 Charles Town Late Pick Four - Preview

Found myself with some time on my hands, so I figured I'd grab a little mid-week action, only to see that the West Coast tracks are all dark until Friday.  And I mean "ALL".  Not just California's Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields, but also Turf Paradise and Sunland Park.  Even Emerald Downs is dark, as they won't have a live card until Saturday.  So, with no options to the West, we turn to the East, and set our sights upon West Virginia; as, ten days prior to the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic, we take a run at The Late Pick Four at Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races.

RACE 5 - Clm $5k N2X - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Breadman's Big Guy (Morning Line (3-1)
# 5 Contemplate (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 2 Mr. Harmon (ML 5-1)
# 4 Caution High Water (ML 6-1)
# 6 It's Bull Bat Time (ML 15-1)
# 8 North Forest Star (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 7 Destrier (ML 10-1).  Bring in # 11 L G Crash (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list.

Breadman's Big Guy won at this class level last time out, closing over a sealed muddy track, and defeating several that he will be facing again this evening.  Contemplate missed by by less than a length in the other division of this class level contest back on March 24, disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

Mr. Harmon took the Place behind Breadman's Big Guy last time out.  Caution High Water defeated state-bred company in two of his last three races, and was not embarrassed the last time that he faced open (non-state bred) company.  In each of his last two starts It's Bull Bat Time has finished just behind Breadman's Big Guy; perhaps tonight's change in rider will allow It's Bull Bat Time to turn to tables.  North Forest Star closed well after a rough break last time out. 

RACE 6 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Forest Night (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Past the Stars (ML 5-1)
# 3 Lil Marshmallow (ML 5-2)
# 4 Midnight With Luti (ML 12-1)
# 5 Wilko Freeway (ML 6-1)
# 6 Floating By (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Forest Night makes his three year old debut here after twice taking the Show against non-claiming maidens as a juvenile.  The "B" Selections are everyone else.  Needless to say, I consider this to be a very evenly matched field, made all the more complicated by the near total lack of early speed.  I believe this contest could easily devolve into chaos, with a half dozen runners all looking at each other and going, "No; you first"; or perhaps even with one horse breaking well out of the gate and the others just letting him go as they fall in line behind.  Either way, choosing which runner(s) to eliminate would constitute more stabbing than selecting; so, for that reason, we'll be hitting the "ALL" button for this leg.

RACE 7 - [S] ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Tampered Character (ML 7-5)

B's

# 6 He's Royal (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Bearcat Kitten / # 1A Blixt (ML 5-2)
# 4 Charitable Flight (ML 15-1)

Note that Bearcat Kitten is actually a Maryland bred (Barak Farm), but is eligible to compete in this contest because his sire, Limehouse, stands at O'Sullivan Farms in Charles Town.

Tampered Character won his debut by as many as he pleased last time out in front of a next out winner.  He's Royal took the Show at this class level last time out, and could move up with the increase in distance.  Blixt took the Place between two next out winners last time out.  Charitable Flight needed that last race after spending nine months on the bench.

RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Start Your Engine (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Golden Man (ML 4-1)
# 5 Run Banner (ML 9-5)
# 6 Good Sport (ML 3-1)

C's

None

Note that Good Sport is actually a Virginia bred (Vermont Farm), but is eligible to compete in this contest because his sire, Hunt Crossing, stands at O'Sullivan Farms in Charles Town.

Start Your Engine took the Place at this class level last time out.  Golden Man and Run Banner are a pair of first time starters that have been training well for this contest.  Good Sport has proven to be competitive at this class level.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,5 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with ALL with 2,6 with 2,4,5,6 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1 with 1,4 with 4 $2.00

Total: $54.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:51 EDT / 5:51 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/18/15 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The Its Binn Too Long - # 8 Get the Sensation (Final Odds 1.00*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial - # 3 Control Stake (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Sugar Maple - # 8 Taketheodds (3.80) - No Selection
Race 12 - The Charles Town Classic - # 6 Moreno (7.00) - No Selection

Congrats to Moreno and his connections, as he earned a new track record for the distance with his victory.  As I type this there's no official word yet as to why # 4 Shared Belief (0.30*) who did not break well and had to be eased approximately six furlongs into the contest, was vanned off.  Needless to say, we hope that whatever injury Shared Belief sustained today proves not to be serious, and that he is able to make a full recovery.  As to our play, there's not much to say other than:

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 3 / 8 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $343.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/18/15 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

We shift our focus today from West to East, as the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Shared Belief makes his first career start outside of California in Saturday's $1.5 Million Charles Town Classic, the anchor in a guaranteed $100k Pick Four.

RACE 9 - [S] (F) The Its Binn Too Long $50k - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Country Mama (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Nay's Back (ML 9-2)

# 8 Get the Sensation (ML 5-2)

Country Mamma won her debut over this main track at today's distance, the only prior time in her career that she's competed at four and a half furlongs.  Country Mama is the only runner in this field to have beaten open (non-state restricted) company.  Nay's Back and Get the Sensation are the only other competitors in this field besides Country Mama to have defeated winners.

RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Control Stake (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Estimated Prophet (ML 8-1)

# 5 Arkaybee (ML 9-2)

# 6 To the Victor (ML 10-1)

# 7 Noteworthy Peach (ML 8-1) has been scratched.

Control Side, trained by Tom Amoss, was a clear winner in the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs last time out.  Estimated Prophet should appreciate the added distance today.

Arkaybee misses by just half a length of being a perfect four-for-four for his career, all over this main track.  To the Victor could be the one running fastest late.

RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $150k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Found (ML 12-1)

# 7 Flattering Bea (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Nesso (ML 3-1)

# 6 Frivolity (ML 5-1) will be scratched.  The fact that she wasn't scratched this morning means that she passed the veterinarian examination in West Virginia while still being stalled in New York.  Quite an accomplishment.

Found won by as many as she wanted to last time out over this main track at today's distance in a N3X Allowance.  Found is trained by Carla Morgan, who wins 20% of the time that she sends out runners seeking back-to-back victories.  Flattering Bea was the upset winner in last year's running of this event; her clear win last time out suggests that Flattering Bea is in shape and could find the Winner's Circle again today.  Nesso took the Show in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks the last time that she competed over this main track.  

RACE 12 - The Charles Town Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Shared Belief (ML 2-5)

B's

None

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,7 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 2,3,5,6 with 1,2,7 with 4 $18.00

Total: $22.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 4:20 EDT / 1:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/19/14 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The Confucius Say - # 4 In the Fairway (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial - # 3 Rise Up (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Sugar Maple - # 8 Flattering Bea (5.40) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Charles Town Classic - # 7 Imperative (26.50) - No Selection

We were correct in our belief that Game On Dude (0.60*) would not win the Charles Town Classic.  We were also correct when we said that the contest looks like it'll be won by someone not fighting for the early lead.  But we were not correct in picking which horse would be coming from off the pace to cross the wire first; and it cost us, as the three "A's" we were holding going into the final leg go to waste, as we had no part of the Charles Town Classic winner.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For posterity's sake, the fifty cent Will Pays for the four horses to which we were alive:

# 1 Clubhouse Ride (8.60) - $241.60
# 2 Moreno (9.10) - $161.85
# 3 Game On Dude (0.60*) - $30.50
# 5 Long River (2.40) - $48.50

Since we had Clubhouse Ride and Long River five times each, the payouts to us would have been $1208.00 and $242.50, respectively, had either of those two won.  But that's what could have been.  As to what actually came to pass, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 8 / 7  were rewarded with a $631.95 payout for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/19/14 Charles Town All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

The Dude heads to West Virginia to once again compete in The Charles Town Classic.  A win tonight would make Game On Dude the highest earning gelding in the history of North American racing, passing John Henry's mark.  Do I think The Dude can do it?  Well, let's take a look at the other races in the sequence first.

RACE 9 - [S] The Confucius Say $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 In the Fairway (Morning Line 2-1)

C's

# 8 Wise Mac (ML 5-2)

I think it's fair to toss In the Fairway's last outing, being as it was after a four month vacation and on an off track (making In the Fairway oh-for-four lifetime when the track is not fast).  In the Fairway is the clear class of the field, and that 85 Beyer Speed Figure he earned two starts back is better than anything anyone else in the field shows in their recent form.

Wise Mac is a lightly raced four year old gelding who is a perfect three-for-three over the Charles Town track.  His speed figures are light, but all his wins have been by daylight, which suggests that he may have more in the tank than what he's shown.

RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 3 Rise Up (ML 2-1)

C's

# 8 Germaniac (4-1)

Those of you with good memories may recall that I placed a two dollar Win wager on Rise Up in The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool One last year at 50-1.  Well that money's gone; hopefully Rise Up can help us add a few dollars to the bankroll tonight.  After spending the past few months competing for a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, Rise Up will no doubt appreciate the class relief he gets here.  My only concern is that Rise Up hasn't competed in a sprint since August; hence the use of Germaniac, a winner at tonight's distance in a listed stakes at Laurel in January, as a backup.

RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $200k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 Wardelle (ML 20-1)
# 3 Quiet Success (ML 7-2)
# 4 Prize Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 More Than a Cruise (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flattering Bea (ML 10-1)

C's

# 6 Rusticana (ML 8-1)
# 9 Saturday Surprise (ML 10-1)

Needless to say, the decision of the connections of # 2 My Pal Chrisy (ML 2-1) and # 10 Saturday Nthe Park (ML 6-1) to run their horses elsewhere today has a major impact as to how this race projects.  

Wardelle is a stakes winner over the Charles Town track, having taken The Pink Ribbon back in September, which was run at tonight's distance of seven furlongs.  Quiet Success ships up from Louisiana where she's earned back-to-back wins.  

The last time Prize Winner got to run at tonight's distance on a fast dirt track she not only won but she also earned a Beyer that fits right in with the top contenders in this field.  More Than a Cruise, a winner in Maryland bred stakes company last time out, has yet to finish out of the Exacta at tonight's distance.  Flattering Bea is three-for-four lifetime over the Charles Town track, the one loss coming when she finished behind Wardelle in The Pink Ribbon.

RACE 12 - The Charles Town Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 6-1)

# 5 Long River (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Moreno (ML 3-1)

# 3 Game On Dude (ML 4-5)

There's no denying that # 3 Game On Dude (ML 4-5) is the class of the field; indeed, he's going to be the class of pretty much any field that he's in.  But there's also no denying that The Dude has become a need to lead type horse; if he's not comfortably ahead early, he's not going to run his best; and once he's passed, he's done.  And with Moreno to his left and # 4 Ruler of Love (ML 20-1) to his right, Game On Dude is not getting a comfortable early lead tonight.  Because of their class I can't see leaving The Dude or Moreno completely off the ticket; but this one looks like it'll be won by someone not fighting for the early lead.

Clubhouse Ride missed by half a length of winning this event last year.  Long River ships down from New York after just missing by two necks of coming into tonight's contest with a five race winning streak.  Note Long River's ability to come from off the pace on the inner Aqueduct winterized track.

Okay; that's the analysis.  I won't be getting too fancy tonight, as I'll just be punching two tickets:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,3,4,5,8 with 1,5 $20.00

All Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 3,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 1,2,3,5 $56.00

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 8:45 EDT / 5:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/29/13 Charles Town Race 8 - Results

Race 8 at Charles Town is official.  And we done good.

# 10 Saturday Surprise (Final Odds 2-5) Wins, paying $2.80 / $2.40 / $2.20.  So our $10 across nets a $7.00 profit.

# 1 Shea Ballet (20-1) finishes third, paying $6.60 to Show.  So our $2 across nets a $0.60 profit.

Since neither the # 1 nor the # 9 Lookout Kate (24-1) finished second, these three wagers:

$1.00 EX (BOX ) 1, 9, 10 $6.00

$1.00 EX (BOX ) 9, 10 $2.00

$2.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 9 $2.00

are losers.  Net loss on those three tickets is $10.00.

# 4 Cecileabration (11-1) took the Place; the # 10 / # 4 Exacta paid $7.70.  So our one dollar Exacta Part-Wheel of the # 10 on top of # 1 and # 4 (a two dollar investment) nets a profit of $5.70.

The four dollars we invested in the one dollar Trifecta of #10 on top of # 9 on top of four other horses is lost.  But the six dollars that we invested in the one dollar Trifecta of # 10 keyed on top of # 1, # 4, and # 9 returns $86.70.  So the ten dollars total investment in Trifecta tickets nets a profit of $76.70.

Since # 9 did not finish in the top four, our dime Superfecta box costing two dollars and forty cents is lost.  However, our dime Superfecta with the # 10 on top of # 1, # 4, and # 9 on top of # 1, # 4, # 5, and # 9 on top of “ALL”, a six dollar and thirty cent investment, returns $19.99, making our net profit from playing the Superfecta $11.29.

So the bottom line is that our total investment in Race 8 @ Charles Town of $66.70 returns $158.19, a profit of $91.49.  And while profit is always good, it's even better when it's increased from making the right moves; as the profit we earned from our play is more than the profit we would have made had we just put the full investment on Saturday Surprise to Win.

So we padded our bankroll a bit right before the Breeders' Cup; not bad for a Tuesday's night work.  I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/29/13 Charles Town Race 8 - Preview

Took a look at Tuesday's DRF.com Race of the Day, Race 8 @ Charles Town.  After scanning the Past Performances I pretty much agree with what Dan Illman and Mike Beer have to say in the video: that # 10 Saturday Surprise is a clear standout, and no way she’s going to go to Post at a price as good as the Morning Line Odds of 3-1.  I also think # 9 Lookout Kate (ML 8-1) is probably the second best horse in this field.  In addition, # 1 Shea Ballet (ML 10-1) could be the controlling speed in this event.  Factor in that Shea Ballet does have three Wins (in seven tries) at tonight’s seven furlong distance, and there’s a good chance that, even if she gets passed in the stretch, she can hang on to finish in the money.

Okay; so that’s the analysis.  Here’s how I’ll be playing it:

$10.00 WPS 10 $30.00 
$2.00 WPS 1 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 1, 9, 10 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 9, 10 $2.00
$2.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 9 $2.00
$1.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4 $2.00 
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 5 $4.00 
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 9 $6.00 
$0.10 SF (BOX ) 1, 4, 9, 10 $2.40 
$0.10 SF (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 5, 9 / ALL $6.30

So we’ve got the lion’s share of our money on the results we most expect to occur, while spreading out enough to give us a little leverage, and also a chance at a really nice payoff.  For example, if they finish 10-9, our $10 across on the 10 pays out; we’ve got $4 on the 10-9 Exacta; and we’ve got an excellent chance of having the Trifecta and the Superfecta.  If they finish 9-10, we’ve got $2 on the Exacta; we still collect on our Place and Show bets on the 10; and we’re still alive in the Superfecta.  If the 1 should wire the field, she should pay enough to Win to cover most of the other bets, and we’ve still got a chance of having the Exacta and the Superfecta.  Finally, if the Morning Line Favorite # 2 Lucky Lady Lawyer should prove that she was much better than we thought and Win, while the 10 finishes out of the money, we get to scratch our heads, shrug our shoulders, and move on to the next race.

Post Time for Race 8 @ Charles Town is 10:25 EDT / 7:25 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo