“Acknowledging the good that you already have in your life is the foundation for all abundance.” - Eckhart Tolle
"Who does not thank for little will not thank for much." - Estonian Proverb
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
We have a holiday card today at Del Mar, with a Graded Stakes as the feature; The Red Carpet, to be precise. We'll be taking a look at that contest below, as we take another run at The Pick Four at The Place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Brandofthebartender (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 2 Royal Privacy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Anatolian Heat (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hot Market (ML 4-1)
# 7 Family Code (ML 4-1)
# 9 Prohibition Repeal (ML 15-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 11 K Thirty Eight (No Line) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List
Brandofthebartender has taken the Place at this class level or higher in each of his last three starts. Royal Privacy could be the controlling speed on the rail. Anatolian Heat tries a one turn turf sprint for the first time, and looks as if he could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Hot Market, a prior winner at this class level, seems to do his best running when having to go around just one turn.
Family Code tries grass for the first time, and he doesn't appear to have much of a turf pedigree; but it's my opinion that, when it comes to these short grass sprints, dirt form tends to carryover to the lawn more predictably than in the longer turf contests. Continuing along that line of reasoning, we include Prohibition Repeal, who was victorious at this class level on the main track three starts back, albeit for different connections.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Lily Pod (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Stealth Drone (ML 5-1)
# 2 Brainspin (ML 4-1)
# 3 Forever Darling (ML 3-1)
C's
# 7 Bad Ju Ju (ML 4-1)
Lily Pad took the Show at this class level the last time that she competed on this main track. Stealth Drone missed victory by just a nose at this class level last time out. Brainspin took the Place at this class level last time out, and is a perfect two-for-two in her career over this main track.
Forever Darling is a Graded Stakes winner running in an Allowance contest off a layoff; while that's normally a red flag, I think the addition of blinkers here coupled with Forever Darling's more recent results against Graded Stakes competition suggests that Forever Darling is well meant here, rather than simply using this race as a prep for future contests. Bad Ju Ju moves up the class ladder after winning by daylight against N1X company last time out.
RACE 7 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Arles (Fr) (ML 5-2)
# 5 Frenzified (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Nuovo Record (Jpn) (ML 3-1)
# 4 Generosidade (Uru) (ML 10-1)
C's
# 3 Swear by It (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 11 Backintheacademy (ML 30-1) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible List
Arles (Fr) took the Place in the Grade 3 Glen Falls at Saratoga last time out at today's distance. Frenzified was a Listed Stakes winner two starts back at today's distance over this turf course.
Nuovo Record (Jpn) was outclassed last time out and should improve against reduced company. Generosidade (Uru) took the Place two starts back behind Frenzified in The CTT and TOC Handicap, and could move up off the freshening. Swear by It has proven to be competitive against Graded Stakes company, and might move forward with the change in coasts.
RACE 8 - Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Big Champion (ML 7-5)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Stormin Cowboy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Party Rule (ML 12-1)
# 6 Global Event (ML 7-2)
# 7 Julia's Summer (ML 12-1)
Big Champion took the Place at this class level three starts back. Since then Big Champion has taken the Place against winners and the Show against non-claiming maidens. I don't know why Big Champion's connections have chosen to return him to the lowest maiden claiming ranks rather than just using him to keep cashing the minor award checks against more expensive stock; but here Big Champion is, and he looks to me to be a clear head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.
So Big Champion will be a single on our big ticket, as I don't believe that any of the backups that we will be using have a high enough chance of victory to justify doubling the cost of our "All A Entries with All B Entries" purchase. As regards our backups, Stormin Cowboy and Party Rule are first time starts whose sires (Cowboy Cal and Tribal Rule, respectively) tend to produce runners who do well at first asking. Global Event goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such. Julia's Summer could be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,5 with 3 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,9 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,4,5 with 3 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 2,5 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 3 with 3 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 2,5 with 4,5,6,7 $4.00
Total: $55.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 3:59 EST / 12:59 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
