7/9/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 5 You Go Girl (Final Odds 4.10) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The King County Express - # 6 Whiskey Harbor (6.80) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Arma D'oro (3.90) - No Selection

Race 10 - # 1 Awesome Move (2.70) - "B+" Selection

I missed on both ends of my hopscotch Double, as neither of my two main ticket singles managed to find their way into the Exacta, let alone the winner's circle.  Which is just as well; because if you miss one, you might just as well miss the other also, at least as far as the bottom line is concerned.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 6 / 4 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $556.20 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/9/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

“Creativity is a wild mind and a disciplined eye.” - Dorothy Parker

Hopefully everyone reading this is enjoying their Summer up to this point (or, for those of you in Australia and other points south of the equator, your Winter).  Seeking an escape from the heat that has affected so much of the United States, at least vicariously, I'm turning my attention toward the Pacific Northwest, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Emerald Downs.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 30k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

# 1 Ms Parkside (Morning Line 8-5) is a perfect two-for-two since being claimed away from Trainer Frank Lucarelli and joining the barn of Trainer Justin Evans.  Certainly having the meet's leading rider, Jockey Luis Negron, on her back for those two encounters has contributed to Ms Parkside's recent success.  But despite the face that Ms Parkside is in top form and relishing her new surroundings, I'm going to leave Ms Parkside off my main ticket today.

My reasoning is that, unless there's a clear price horse that you like in some other leg of the sequence, it makes little economic sense to use both Ms Parkside and the runner who shapes up to be her primary competition in this event, # 3 Our Lyla Grace (ML 3-1) on the same ticket.  Yes, this is horse racing and anything can happen; but in my opinion one of those two distaff runners is going to win this race.

So why not use both?  Again, if I could settle on a price horses later in this sequence I would use both.  But since I can't, using both Ms Parkside and Our Lyla Grace means doubling the cost of my main ticket in the hopes of collecting a payout that may not amount to much.

So having to decided to use only one of that pair on my main ticket, why Our Lyla Grace rather than Ms Parkside?  In my opinion, I think today's distance better suits Our Lyla Grace.  I also think that Our Lyla Grace holds a recent class edge over Ms Parkside; that is, Our Lyla Grace has been running well of late versus tougher competition than those whom Ms Parkside has been facing.  Finally, Ms Parkside strikes me as a need to lead type; that is, if Ms Parkside can't get the early lead, then she can't win.  Conversely, Our Lyla Grace has shown that she can win from virtually anywhere on the track.

So for me it'll be Our Lyla Grace solo on my main ticket, with Ms Parkside being used as a backup "C+" Selection.

RACE 8 - The King County Express $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 9 K R Rules (ML 4-1)

These are juveniles; colts and geldings that are just two years old.  I would blame no one for punching the ALL button for this contest and just moving on.  Personally, I decided to go four deep here on my main ticket, with # 2 Digital Soldier (ML 8-1) my "A" Selection.  Digital Soldier, one of three first time starters in this field, impresses me with both his morning workouts and his breeding; and, well, that 8-1 Morning Line is more than just little bit tempting.  EDIT - With the scratch of Tax Code in Race 9, I'll now be using main ticket singles in two races.  So, there's now no reason to sweat this contest, as I'll now be chickening out and punching the ALL button.

RACE 9 - OC 30k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 10 Tax Code (ML 5-2)

The male version of Race 7 above; and again I've narrowed the field down to two primary contenders; in this case, # 9 Brady Boy (ML 3-1) and # 10 Tax Code (ML 5-2).  However, unlike how I approached Race 7, in this leg I have no qualms about using the two top picks on the Morning Line.  My reasoning is based upon this event having a larger field than Race 7 (eleven runners versus seven, prior to scratches), which means that there will be more money in the pool being used on other entrants besides this pair.  Of course, everything sounds logical prior to the running; so we'll see how it plays out later today.  EDIT - And with that, Tax Code has been scratched.  So I'll be using Brady Boy solo on my main ticket.

RACE 10 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt

Once again I'm going ALL in on my main ticket; which makes the main ticket a hopscotch Daily Double, with singles in non-consecutive races and ALL in the other two events.  This contest has the smell of chaos, as none of the entrants was able to finish in the money last time out.  I made # 7 Big Galute (ML 4-1) my "A" Selection as Big Galute did finish in the Trifecta in his last two tries at this class level.  But, ultimately, I think that this could be anyone's race.

So with all that verbiage aside, here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	3			1	2,5,7
LEG 2	2,		1,3,4,5,6,7,8
LEG 3	9			8	1,2,6,7
LEG 4	7,	1,	2,3,4,5,6,8

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 9 with 1,7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3 with ALL with 9 with ALL $32.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 9 with 1,7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 8 with 1,7 $1.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 2 with 9 with 7 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 1,2,6,7 with 7 $2.00

Total: $40.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:57 EDT / 4:57 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/13/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Danielle's Secret (Final Odds 7.90) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Lucky Lad (2.40) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Aloha Breeze (0.60*) - "C+" Selection

Race 9 - # 6 Above the Stars (0.40*) - "A" Selection

The good news was that I got my big ticket single home in the nightcap.  The bad news was that Above the Stars was one of only two Selections on my main ticket to get their picture taken.  So, while I wouldn't have gained much, my Profit and Loss Statement Saturday would have been much better served had I just put it all on Above the Stars and forsaken The Late Pick Four.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 1 / 4 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $45.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/13/23 Emerald Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

“Life is worthwhile if you try.  It doesn’t mean you can do everything but there are a lot of things you can do, if you just try.” - Jim Rohn

Welcome to the Second Saturday in May, the traditional resting place between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes!  In celebration of such tradition, I plan on doing something untraditional; at least, untraditional in the history of this blog: Take part in the action at Auburn, WA.

Specifically, I intend on playing Emerald Downs today; which, as can be seen on their calendar, began their 2023 racing meeting last Saturday.  I know I won't be playing the Emerald Downs card every weekend this Summer (for example, next Saturday is the aforementioned Second Jewel of The Triple Crown); but this seems like an excellent opportunity to sample their product.  So with the attitude of a trailblazer let's get to it, as, for the first time on this blog, I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Emerald Downs.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 3 Big  Mama Thornton (No Line)

I've chosen to fade the Morning Line Favorite in this leg, # 7 Camden High (Morning Line 2-1) and designate this five year old mare as a "C" Selection.  Personally, 2-1 is not the price that I prefer to accept on a runner that has one career Win in twenty-five attempts.  Worse, at least in my mind, is that Camden High has taken the Place in nine of those twenty-five attempts.  Toss in four more races in which Camden High took the Show, and you have a pretty good profile of a horse that is very much content to settle for a minor award in races where she was in fact the best.  Of course, should Camden High run as well as the Morning Line suggests that she should, this could turn out to be a very short afternoon for me.

RACE 7 - ALW N2L* - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

The asterisk after the "N2L" above is because horses which were bred in the state of Washington are allowed another victory; so for Washington bred runners, the condition is N3L; that is, non-Winners of Three Lifetime Races.  A pretty good deal, if you ask me.  For those curious regarding such matters, # 2 Firewater (ML 6-1); # 5 March On Linch (ML 15-1); and # 6 Poverty Bay (ML 2-1) are the entrants in this field that have had their photograph taken three times.

Despite his advantage over half this field in career victories, I've chosen to keep Poverty Bay off my main ticket and slot the four year old gelding in as a "C+" Selection.  Poverty Bay is winless over this track in four tries; but with three Place finishes.  At better odds, I may have given greater consideration to Poverty Bay; but at 2-1 I'm willing to roll the dice and play against his chances.  So two legs into this sequence, I've chosen to fade the two Morning Line Favorites.  Which will be known to be either genius or idiocy once these races have been made Official.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 30k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 2 Ms Flashy Harbor (ML 5-1) and # 5 Drinkup Buttercup (ML 8-1)

Hmmm; $30k isn't too shabby for a first level Optional Claimer; though, on the other hand, these are three year olds only.  Were I a more energetic sort I would see how that claiming price compares with other circuits in North America.  Anyway, for all with a need to know, # 2 Ms Flashy Harbor and # 5 Drinkup Buttercup are the only two runners in this field that are up for sale for $30k.  EDIT - And, as can be seen above, coincidentally or not, both Ms Flashy Harbor and Drinkup Buttercup have been scratched.

To continue the theme of this post, I will not be using the Morning Line Favorite in this leg, # 4 Aloha Breeze (ML 2-1) on my main ticket, but rather as a "C+" Selection.  Granted, this one is more hunch than analysis, but Aloha Breeze strikes me as a runner that needs a race, and is up against a field where she'll need her best to win.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 8 Classy Candy (ML 5-1)

Okay; here's the exception to the rule in this sequence, as I not only have the Morning Line Favorite, # 6 Above the Stars (ML 6-5) on my main ticket, but I have chosen to use Above the Stars as my main ticket single for this leg.  Still, me being me, I do have a hedge in place, as all others in this contest will find their way onto a backup ticket as a "C" Selection, with the exception of second time starter # 4 Zeva Dee, who I have made a "C+" Selection off her stunning gate work of April 29.

So with all that verbiage aside, here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	1,		2,8	6	4,5,7
LEG 2	3,	7,		6	1,2,4,5
LEG 3	6,	7,	3	4,8	1
LEG 4	6,			4	1,2,3,5,7

And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 6 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 6 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,8 with 3,7 with 3,6,7 with 6 $9.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 6 with 6,7 with 6 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 4,8 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,7 with 3 with 6 with 6 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5 with 6 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 6 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 $2.50

Total: $27.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:47 EDT / 4:47 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo