9/7/19 Kentucky Downs Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Turf Sprint - # 10 Totally Boss (Final Odds 4.40) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Ladies Turf - # 9 Ms Bad Behavior (7.30) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Ladies Sprint - # 7 Morticia (5.00) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup - # 9 Zulu Alpha (2.10) - "B" Selection

Turf racing in general tends to be more difficult to handicap than thoroughbreds on the dirt.  Boutique meets are always difficult; and the unique layout of the Kentucky Downs turf course makes handicapping there even more of a challenge.  So with all those obstacles standing in the way of victory, it's very tempting to claim that superior handicapping skill was what led to Saturday's favorable result.

But, truth be told, a lot of luck and good fortune was behind Saturday's win; as the first three victors in the sequence simply rode a early speed bias, while the featured final race was perhaps the most formfully run contest on the afternoon.  But no matter; be it good handicapping or good luck, the bottom line is that Saturday was a day for me to cash instead of contribute.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 10 Arklow (1.60*) - $588.80 Finish: 2nd

# 11 Campaign (4.20) - $834.50 Finish: 3rd

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 9 / 7 / 9  which paid $431.95 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $298.45 on my initial $133.50 investment; or approximate odds of 2.235-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/7/19 Kentucky Downs Late Pick Four - Preview

The thoroughbred horse racing circuit in Southern California moves onto Los Alamitos Race Course; where, courtesy of their one dollar minimum Pick Fours, I am priced out of the game.  So my action moves elsewhere; and for those of you who like to look ahead, good Lord willing next week will see me playing Remington Park in Oklahoma City.  As for today, what better spot to play than the track less than an hour away from Music City; especially on Kentucky Turf Cup Day, where the final four contests on the card are all Graded Stakes.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky.

RACE 7 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Stormy Liberal (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 3 Imprimis (ML 4-1)
# 8 Leinster (ML 3-1)
# 10 Totally Boss (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Wet Your Whistle (ML 8-1)
# 2 Cautious Giant (ML 15-1)
# 4 Smart Remark (ML 20-1)
# 5 Undrafted (ML 10-1)
# 6 White Flag (ML 8-1)
# 7 Jazzy Times (ML 15-1)

Stormy Liberal, Show runner in the Grade 3 Green Flash at Del Mar last time out, could move up with the increase in real estate.  Imprimis may need a race upon his return from Ascot; but Imprimis certainly has the class to win here.

Leinster and Totally Boss are both trained by Rusty Arnold; and as both are coming off solid stakes victories last time out, I see no reason to try to choose between the two.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Ladies Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Simply Breathless (GB) (ML 5-1)

B's

# 5 Storm the Hill (ML 3-1)
# 7 Mitchell Road (ML 5-2)
# 9 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Kallio (ML 10-1)
# 4 Viva Vegas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sensitive (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Coachwhip (ML 20-1)

Simply Breathless (GB) found nine and a half furlongs a distance too far last time out in the Grade 3 Modesty; but she still hung on for the Show.  I expect Simply Breathless to be much improved today with the reduction in real estate.  Storm the Hill, Show runner behind Simply Breathless in the Grade 3 Wilshire back in June, could turn the tables on that rival, as Storm the Hill may not have been in top form for the Wilshire, coming as she was off a half-year layoff.

Mitchell Road can have her last outing forgiven as she was simply out classed.  Ms Bad Behavior is another whose form is much improved by ignoring her most recent start.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Ladies Sprint (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 6 Painting Corners (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Morticia (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cool Beans (ML 10-1)
# 10 Ruby Notion (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Raven's Lady (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Pastime (ML 20-1)
# 4 A Little Bit Me (ML 10-1)
# 5 Coexistence (ML 15-1)
# 9 Tiny Tina (ML 10-1)
# 11 Stillwater Cove (ML 20-1)
# 12 May Lily (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 La Dame Blanche (ML 20-1); # 14 Therighttobeararms (ML 50-1); # 15 She's All Skeet (ML 30-1)

Painting Corners appears to be entering this contest in top form; and Painting Corners has run well at this distance in the past.  Oleksandra (Aus) enters this contest having won three of her last four starts; and Oleksandra looks well meant here.

Morticia has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of her last eight starts; but Morticia is just too classy to not use on the main ticket.  Cool Beans looks outclassed here; but Cool Beans could benefit from the cutback in distance, and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Brad Cox / Florent Geroux is doing too well to ignore.

Ruby Notion won last year's running of this contest; though if one was looking to save some coin by dropping her from the main ticket, such a decision could be justified by Ruby Notion having finished behind Oleksandra in each of her last two starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A's

# 10 Arklow (ML 5-2)

B's

# 9 Zulu Alpha (ML 9-2)
# 11 Campaign (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Bostwana (ML 20-1)
# 2 My Boy Jack (ML 12-1)
# 3 Blended Citizen (ML 15-1)
# 4 Gliding Alone (ML 50-1)
# 6 Factor This (ML 12-1)
# 7 Pillar Mountain (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 8 Hello Don Julio (ML 15-1)
# 12 Noble Thought (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Bigger Picture (ML 8-1) as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Golden Dragon (ML 50-1) and # 14 Zero Gravity (ML 30-1)

Arklow, winner of last year's running of this event, is Graded Stakes placed in each of his last three starts, crossing under the wire less than a length behind the winner in each contest.  Zulu Alpha was less than a length away from Arklow at the wire last time out, and Zulu Alpha missed victory in the Grade 1 United Nations by just a neck two starts back.

Campaign has won both times that he's competed over this turf course; so Campaign is definitely not disadvantaged by the change in surface.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,8,9,10 with 2,5,7,9 with 3,6,7,8,10 with 9,10,11 $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,6,8 with 6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,9,11,12 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,12 $4.00

Total: $133.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:53 EDT / 1:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo