Winning Post Position Abnormalities - Update

And now we have numbers, and I can do a real update!  But first, let me bring the folks that are new around here up to speed.

Back on June 30 I posted that there was something a little off about the winning post positions at Calder Race Course during its Calder (Summer) Meet; not in all races, but just in dirt sprints.  Here's the chart that went with that post:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0

Notice how infrequently horses were winning from out of the Number Two hole?  As to why this was happening, your guess is as good as mine; but it's obvious that Post Position 2 was not winning its fair share in dirt sprints.

On August 1, I posted an update; with chart (of course), which I reproduce here:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0

As you can see, things had gotten somewhat better for hoses running from the Number Two Post Position; not a whole lot better, but there was improvement: in the one hundred fifteen races between the two charts, PP2 won eleven times; slightly less than ten percent of the time.  Again, an improvement; but still not even close to its fair share, especially when compared to its competitors to its immediate left and right (PP1 and PP3)

My plan was to update these numbers again soon after the close of the Calder Meet at the end of August.  However, as I posted on September 20 the data that I was using, from Equibase.com, was no longer to be found on Calder's Track Profile Page.  So I had no numbers with which to provide an update.

OK; now everyone's up to speed.

And now, thanks to the very helpful Jessica Knox at Equibase Company, I know where to obtain the numbers that I was looking for on the Equibase.com site.

Since I'm not much on keeping secrets, let me first fill all of you in on where to find the data.  On pretty much any Equibase.com page you can click the "Store" button, which brings you to the Handicapper's Store (don't worry; none of this will cost you a dime).  From that page, click on "Stats Central", which gives you quite a selection of free stuff.  For the purposes of this post, clicking on "Meet Statistics" brings you to a couple of drop down menus where you can select a track and meet.  In this case, we're clicking on "CRC-Calder Race Course" for Track, and then "4/9/2012 to 8/31/2012" for Meet.  If you've done all that, you should find yourself inside a PDF file; and from that point, it's just a matter of scrolling on down to the last page to get the stats for Winning Post Positions at Calder; which are as follows:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through August 30, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........491.........93.......... 18.9
2.........491.........54...........11.0
3.........491.........72...........14.7
4.........490.........60...........12.2
5.........487.........58...........11.9
6.........457.........54...........11.8
7.........368.........38...........10.3
8.........222.........40...........18.0
9.........108.........11...........10.2
10.........50.........10...........20.2
11.........13..........1.............7.7
12..........6...........0.............0.0

That's quite an improvement for Post Position Number 2.  PP2 won nineteen of the ninety-nine dirt spints in which it competed during the month of August at Calder.  That's a winning percentage more than double what it had been for the previous four months of the Calder meet.    And just to flesh out that picture a little bit more, let's take a look at the numbers so far in the Tropical Meet at CRC (again, courtesy of the good people at the Equibase Company):

CRC Tropical Meet Standings - Through October 10, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........164.........26.......... 15.9
2.........164.........23...........14.0
3.........164.........23...........14.0
4.........164.........27...........16.5
5.........160.........16...........10.0
6.........141.........23...........16.3
7.........101.........11..........10.9
8..........43.........11...........25.6
9..........22..........2.............9.1
10........11..........3............27.3
11.........2...........0.............0.0

If you combine the numbers for August with the Tropical Meet stats, you get PP2 winning forty-two times in two hundred sixty-three tries; or just a shade under sixteen percent.

So whatever was going on with Post Position Number Two during the early part of the Calder Meet seems to have corrected itself.  Hopefully those of you who play the Miami track were sharp enough to sell PP2 when it was running cold and then buy in as soon as it got hot.  And if anyone should ever figure out what was going on with PP2 in CRC dirt sprints during the early part of this Summer, I'd appreciate it if you'd post a comment here so as to let the rest of us know.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Winning Post Position Abnormalities - Update

Well, not really.  I mean, I was going to update this story with the latest numbers; honest.  But, well, maybe we should start at the beginning:

Back on June 30, I published a post regarding the winning post positions at Calder Race Course, specifically in the dirt sprints.  Here's how the numbers looked in that first post:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0

I thought it somewhat odd that Post Position Number 2 would be doing so poorly; indeed, as you can see, it had a lower Win Percentage than every other Post Position, with the exception of Post Position 12 (which was winless in four starts).

About a month later, on August 1, I re-visited the issue.  Here's how the numbers looked then:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0

As you can see, while Post Position 2 had improved its standing, it was still not winning anywhere near its fair share of sprint races at CRC.

Now, before I go further, let me state (as I had in the two prior posts) that there are any number of reasons why Post Position 2 would be doing poorly at Calder in sprint races.  It could be that PP2 just wasn't getting its fair share of favorites.  It could be that PP2 was getting more than its fair share of bad beats.  It could just be one of those statistical flukes that just happen sometimes.

So, the plan was to look at the numbers again at the end of August.  This, I felt, would be a perfect endpoint, as August 31 marked the end of the 85-day Calder meet, with the 65-day Tropical meet starting September 1.

So, earlier this month, I went to Equibase.com, which had been the source for all the prior stats that you see above.  And what did I find?

Nothing.

The Post Position Stats for Calder had been wiped clean.

I figured it was just some system or site glitch; something that would soon be fixed.  I figured I'd just check back in a few days.

Didn't help.

For those of you who don't like to click links, here's what you're missing:

Even stranger, if you go to Equibase's Track Profile page for Calder, you'll see there's no option to check the  Post Position Stats for the current Tropical meet.

Again, for those of you who are link-adverse:

By the way, if you click on the images they're supposed to get bigger.  If they don't, please let me know.

Now, I repeat that all of this could just be just some system or site glitch that will soon be fixed.  It's entirely possible that, by the time many of you click the above links, all the numbers will be where they should be.

By the way, for those of you wondering why I don't just take the Post Position stats from some other site: I couldn't  find another site that had them.  CRC's official site has a "Meet Leaders" page, that will give you stats for Jockeys, Trainers, Owners, and Horses; but not Post Positions.  Drf.com, near as I can tell, doesn't provide Post Position stats; at least, not for free; and even then (as near as I can tell) only for the current meet; not for those past.  Besides, if it's not a free site, then I can't link to it from here.  I suppose someone could just go through the charts and manually log the winning PPs that way; but that's certainly not a job for which I would volunteer.

So, there you have it.  When and if the numbers become available, we'll look again at the issue and see if Post Position 2 at Calder Race Course ever did start winning its fair share of sprints.  Until then, onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Winning Post Position Abnormalities - Update

Back on June 30, I wrote briefly about a seeming abnormality in the Winning Post Positions stats at Calder Race Course; specifically, the failure of the Number 2 Post Position to win its fair share in dirt sprints.  Here's how those numbers looked back then:


Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0

Excluding the 12 spot (which was oh-for-four), the only Post Position with a Winning Percentage below ten percent was Post Position 2.  This struck me as rather unusual, especially in light of the fact that the two Post Positions on either side of the 2 were doing quite well for themselves.  I speculated that small sample size bias may be to blame, and wrote that I would re-examine the numbers later in the meet.


Courtesy of Equibase.com, here's how the numbers look approximately one month later:


Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0

Let's see; since June 29, the 12 post picked up another start without a victory; the 11 spot was winless in three tries; the 10 post went two-for-ten, to remain slightly above the twenty percent mark; while the 9 hole could only mange one first place finish in twenty-four tries, dropping it's Win Percentage to 8.4%.


As for Post Position Number 2, you can see its Win Percentage has crept up ever so slightly, advancing from 8.7% to 8.9%.  The 2 spot no longer has the worst Win Percentage on the chart for Post Positions with more than five races (that distinction now belonging to Post Position 9); but it is still clearly not winning its fair share of sprints.


I want to mention again that these numbers are just for dirt sprints; as the above Equibase.com link shows, through July 31, Post Position 2 has the best Win Percentage in route races (excluding the 11, which has only twelve tries).  Post Position 2 also does quite well in the grass at Calder, crossing the finish line first a respectable 12.3% of the time on the turf course.


So I ask again: what's the cause?  For the statisticians in the crowd: can the numbers be explained by random distribution?  How about the quality of the horses to draw Post Position 2?  As I mentioned previously, my schedule won't allow me the time to examine the charts for the Calder meet to see if Post Position 2 has been getting its fair share of favorites (does someone else want to tackle that project?).  Maybe Post Position 2 has received more than its fair share of bad beats; something that, again, would be revealed by a thorough chart examination.  Perhaps this is a historical problem; does anyone have the Post Position Win Percentages from prior Calder meets?


And what to do with such knowledge?  To be honest, I don't know what advice to give for those playing the game at Calder.  Do you downgrade horses in Post Position 2 in sprints, knowing how poorly they have done this meet?  Do you upgrade those horses, on the presumption that the numbers should even out?  Or do you just ignore Post Position as a handicapping factor altogether?  I'm very interested in hearing what others have to say on this topic.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo

Winning Post Position Abnormalities

So I'm handicapping a couple of races for today (Saturday, June 30) at Calder, when I decide to see how the various Post Positions have been faring for the current meet.  Here's the winning Post Position stats for dirt sprints, courtesy of Equibase.com, through yesterday:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0

As you can see, with the exception of Post Position 12 (which is winless in four tries) Post Position 2 is the only Post Position to have won fewer than ten percent of it starts in sprints this meet at Calder. 


How can that be?  Surely it can't be the track; not with Post Position 3 right next door winning twice as often, while Post Position 1 to the inside is collecting at better than twenty percent.  It can't be a problem with the gate, since (as you can see from the full chart here) Post Position 2 is winning its fair share of races in routes and on the grass.  So what could it be?


Well, for the time being, I'm going to just presume that it's one of those statistical flukes that pops up from time to time.  Even though the sample isn't all that small, I'm going to move on with the presumption that this is nothing more than an abnormality in the numbers that will correct itself as the meet goes on.  Perhaps the Number 2 Post Position just hasn't been getting its fair share of favorites; had I the time, I would be go through the charts for the meet to see what the average Final Odds are for each Post Position, and perhaps find the solution to this mystery there-in.


Anyway, if anyone of you want to offer up a theory as to what's taking place at Calder, or if you have your own story regarding Post Position madness, I'd love to hear it.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo