8/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Seagram Cup - # 2 War Bomber (Ire) (Final Odds 18.20) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Bison City - # 2 Sister Seagull (1.70*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 6 Dotted Line (1.45*) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - # 5 Bohemian Boy (2.40*) - "B" Selection

Watching the Post Time Favorite emerge victorious is not what a player wishes to see when they punch the "ALL" button, as I did in the third leg (Race 10) Sunday.  For that matter, having the Post Time Favorite win a contest where I went five deep, as was the case in the nightcap, suggests that I did a somewhat less than superior job of handicapping that event.  Still, it's difficult for me to be overly critical of my mistakes on a day when I was fortunate enough to catch a nice price in the opener, and then follow through with selecting the subsequent winners in the sequence.

For the record, here are the $0.20 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Embrace My Uncle (18.00) - $698.16 Finish: 10th

# 2 Nashtrick (4.50) - $225.03 Finish: 3rd

# 4 Ron’s Gizmo (10.35) - $337.59 Finish: 4th

# 11 Big Executive (10.00) - $559.22 Finish: 8th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 2 / 6 / 5  which paid $115.02 for a twenty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $75.42 on my initial $39.60 investment, or approximate odds of 1.90-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Successful people appreciate where they have come from, but they don’t let their past set the tone for their future.  Successful people are innovators.” - Steve Harvey

The oppressive heat in the Toronto area caused the cancellation of Woodbine's card last Sunday; but thank the good Lord all looks to be well this week, with a very fine program on tap.  Contests on the card include a pair of stakes; and I'll be taking a look at both of those events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 8 - The Seagram Cup (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Frosted Over (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 2 War Bomber (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tap It to Win (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Cash Dividend (ML 12-1)

# 5 Clayton (ML 12-1)

# 6 Artie's Storm (ML 5-2)

# 7 Carrothers (ML 15-1)

# 8 Special Forces (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Haddassah (ML 8-1)

Frosted Over, winner of the Grade 3 Dominion Day the last time that he competed on a synthetic surface, should appreciate the return to the main track.  War Bomber (Ire) could be the one running best late.  Tap It to Win won last year's running of this event, and I'm always a sucker for the defending champ in a Graded Stakes.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Bison City $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Sister Seagull (ML 7-5)

B's

# 1 Strega (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Lady Brew (ML 12-1)
# 4 Pioneer's Edge (ML 8-5)
# 5 Souper Flashy (ML 7-2)

These are all three year old Ontario bred fillies.  Were I thinking more clearly, I would probably make Sister Seagull, Place finisher in the $500k Woodbine Oaks last time out, a big ticket single in this contest.  But I like the possibility of Strega being loose on the lead, especially with the rail draw.  So it's two deep for me in this leg, with the rest of the runners being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - Clm $25k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Epilogue (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Decimator (ML 8-1)

# 4 Maximus Momentus (ML 6-1)

# 5 Ikerrin Road (Ire) (ML 9-2)

# 6 Dotted Line (ML 3-1)

# 7 Timeskip (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 1 Take a Chance (ML 5-2)

Nothing like the scratch of the Morning Line Favorite to make you have to redo all your prior work.  Epilogue looks best here, his last win having come at today's distance at this class level.  Maximus Momentus disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out.  Perhaps the cutback in distance will benefit Maximus Momentus today.

Ikerrin Road (Ire) is getting some much needed class relief here.  Dotted Line, despite not being all that quick, could be the one leading the field through the early going.  You know what?  This is too much work for a Sunday morning.  I'm just going to go "ALL" in this leg and move on.

RACE 11 - OC 32k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Nashtrick (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Embrace My Uncle (ML 6-1)

# 4 Ron's Gizmo (ML 12-1)

# 5 Bohemian Boy (ML 3-1)

# 11 Big Executive (ML 15-1)

C's

# 3 Dragon's Brew (ML 15-1)

# 6 Downey Boy (ML 9-2)

# 8 Basketball Jones (ML 4-1)

# 9 Desolator (ML 20-1)
# 10 Workin Out (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 7 Wave Baby (ML 10-1)

For those who note such things, Dragon's Brew is the only entrant in this field that will be competing with the $32k price tag on his head.

Nashtrick took a bit of a step back last time out; but Nashtrick could improve today with the cutback in distance.  Embrace My Uncle was a daylight winner last time out (albeit for different connections), suggesting that Embrace My Uncle could handle the jump in class.

Ron's Gizmo regressed last time out; perhaps Ron's Gizmo will improve going third off the layoff.  Bohemian Boy missed the winner's circle by just a neck last time out at today's class level.

Big Executive disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against more expensive stock.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 2 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 2,4,9 with 1,2 with ALL with 1,2,4,5,11 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 2 with 2 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 4 with 3,4,5 with 2 with 2 $0.60

$0.20 P4: 4 with 2 with 2 with 3,6,8,9,10 $1.00

Total: $39.60

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:46 EDT / 1:46 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/31/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Boss Holiday (Final Odds 1.40*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 8 Executive Sight (8.15) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Twenty Four Mamba (11.30) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 6 Jibaro (6.10) - "A" Selection

Unfortunately for me and my bankroll, # 7 Souper Legacy (3.15, from a 15-1 Morning Line) was a neck too slow in getting to the line in Race 8, and had to settle for the Place.  Of course, had I made Executive Sight my "A" Selection in Race 7, rather than a "B" Selection, my play would have succeeded anyway.  And, who knows, had I made Boss Holiday the big ticket single that he proved that he deserved to be, I just might had found room on the big ticket for Twenty Four Mamba; though, to be honest, that is highly unlikely.  But putting all might have beens aside, the bottom line is that Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 8 / 2 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $407.13 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/31/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Ones best success comes after their greatest disappointments.” - Henry Ward Beecher

Ontario bred juveniles kick off the sequence on this final day of July, 2022; and, as with any juvenile race in July, chaos is the expected order of the day.  So with that as prelude let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 6 - [S] MOC 40k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Boss Holiday (Morning Line 6-5)

B’s

# 5 One More Brew (ML 5-1)

# 7 Housebuilder (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Today (ML 10-1)

# 2 Big Investment (ML 12-1)

# 3 Jim's Hope (ML 8-1)

# 6 Don't Stop Dreamin (ML 6-1)

# 8 River of Babylon (ML 20-1)

For those who note such things, Big Investment and Housebuilder, two of the three experienced runners in this field, are the only two runners that will be competing with the $40k price tag on their respective heads.  In addition, note that, while the racing secretary may not had intended it to be so, all these entrants are Ontario bred.

I mentioned in the intro above that these are juveniles; so you should feel free to spread as far and wide as your budget will allow.  But that's "Do as I say, not as I do" advice.  I think Boss Holiday is going to be pretty tough to beat in this spot.  Boss Holiday took the Place in his debut last time out behind Poulin in O T, who went on to win the $125k Victoria Stakes.  And while Boss Holiday was making no headway versus Poulin in O T in that contest, Boss Holiday did distance himself from the rest of the field in the stretch.

Still, singling a juvenile in July requires confidence that I'm not finding within myself today.  So I'm also including first time starter One More Brew on the main ticket, as One More Brew looks well meant here.  Finally, Housebuilder, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, goes on the main ticket as well.  As per usual, all other entrants will be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - OClm 15k - Five Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 2 Big League (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Executive Sight (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Tricky Magician (ML 6-1)

# 3 Ikerrin Road (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 4 Alacritous (ML 8-1)

# 5 Crafty Conquest (ML 2-1)

# 6 Gasconade (ML 20-1)

# 7 Tall Water (ML 20-1)

This contest is a Starter Optional Claimer; an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, if you will.  A runner is eligible to compete here tag free if he has started for a claiming price of $7.5k or less this year or last.  Otherwise, an entrant will be eligible to be claimed for $15k.  For those who note such things, Big League and Tall Water are the only two runners in here that cannot be claimed for the $15k price tag.

Big League, returning from a nearly two year absence from competition, is going first off the claim for Trainer Martin Drexler, who tends to do well with such.  Big League also displays a nice, steady work tab leading into this contest.

Executive Sight could move up with the cutback in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 50k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Emmeline (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Rockstar (ML 5-2)

# 7 Souper Legacy (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Twenty Four Mamba (ML 12-1)

# 3 Chelsea Dagger (ML 6-1)

# 5 City Legend (ML 10-1)

# 6 Sugar Ray (ML 8-5)

Souper Legacy is the only entrant in this field that has visited the winner's circle more than once; and, therefore, Souper Legacy is the only entrant in this field that is eligible to be claimed for $50k.

Emmeline is a filly taking on the boys, and I think that this daughter of Violence has what it takes to get the job done today, especially at the seven furlong distance.  Rockstar took the Place at this class level last time out.  Perhaps more consideration should be given to making Rockstar the top pick here; but the concern is that Rockstar seems to settle for too many minor awards.

As mentioned above, Souper Legacy is the only entrant in this field to have defeated winners.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Jibaro (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Regal Intent (ML 8-1)

# 9 Passthepuddinpleaz (ML 9-2)

# 10 Tourist's Dream (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Al Heybay (ML 7-2)

# 3 View From Egbert (ML 10-1)

# 5 Bullet Speed (ML 20-1)
# 7 Small Talk (ML 12-1)

# 8 Prince of Thieves (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Exceed (ML 15-1)

Jibaro is being priced to sell here.  Jibaro should do well with the class drop.  Regal Intent took the Show against classier competition two starts back.  Passthepuddinpleaz took the Place at this class level two starts back and three starts back.

Tourist's Dream could do well with the cutback in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 1 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 4,5,7 with 2,8 with 1,4,7 with 4,6,9,10 $14.40

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,6,8 with 2 with 1 with 6 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 4 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 6 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 4 with 2 with 2,3,5,6 with 6 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 4 with 2 with 1 with 2,3,5,7,8 $1.00

Total: $19.40

Post Time for Race 6 is 3:42 EDT / 12:42 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/17/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 6 Money Printer (Final Odds 4.75) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 3 There's No Joe (1.80*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Perfect Crime (4.90) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - # 1 View From Egbert (8.45) - "C" Selection

I thought I was in for a tough beat Sunday when my "A" Selection in the third leg (Race 9), # 2 Long Pond (2.20*), was just a head too slow in getting to the winner.  But it turned out that I needn't have worried; as I had made a complete hash of the nightcap in my handicapping.  While I can comfort myself by stating that Race 10 was destined for chaos, the fact is that, despite using six of the eleven runners in the field, none of my big ticket selections found their way into the Trifecta, let alone the winner's circle.  So Sunday was a day of multiple errors on my part, and therefore a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 3 / 3 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $208.54 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/17/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

"A mediocre idea that generates enthusiasm will go further than a great idea that inspires no one." - Mary Kay

The Victoria Stakes, a $125k contest for juveniles, is Sunday's featured race in Ontario.  However, I'll be making no commentary on that contest, being that it was carded as Race 3 in the program.  Rather, my focus will be on the Final Four races on the card, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - OC 50k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Tour of Duty (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 6 Money Printer (ML 12-1)

# 8 Glider (ML 6-1)

# 9 Holyfield (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Bet N Win (ML 20-1)
# 2 October Frost (ML 10-1)
# 3 Master McGrath (ML 4-1)

# 4 Racing in the Rain (ML 10-1)

# 5 Hidden Honor (ML 3-1)

# 7 Leslie Chow (ML 15-1)

# 11 Ice Road (ML 20-1)

# 12 Malibu Edge (ML 12-1)

I inserted the N2L into the condition line above because none of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once.  For those who are curious regarding such matters, October Frost is the only entrant here competing with the $50k price tag on his head.

Tour of Duty took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.  Money Printer missed by just a length against classier opposition last time out after doing most of the heavy lifting in that contest.

Glider could improve with the surface switch.  Holyfield is getting some much need class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 32k/N1X - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Dragon's Brew (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 2 Diamond City (ML 4-1)

# 3 There's No Joe (ML 5-2)

# 4 Victorious Wave (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Downy Boy (ML 3-1)

# 5 Executive Search (ML 10-1)

# 7 Nevaeh's Dream (ML 8-1)

# 8 Ghoul (Brz) (ML 12-1)

For those who take note of such things, Executive Search, Dragon's Brew, Nevaeh's Dream, and Ghoul (Brz) are the runners in this field that will be competing with the "For Sale" sign on their heads.

Dragon's Brew may have needed that last race following his sabbatical.  Diamond City, making his 2022 debut, has previously shown the ability to run well off works.  There's No Joe finished in the Trifecta (Triactor) against classier in each of his last two starts.

Victorious Wave is another making his 2022 debut.  As Victorious Wave was a winner first time out, he can be expected to run well off the bench.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - OC 40k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Long Pond (ML 10-1)

B's

# 1 Uncle Joe (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Perfect Crime (ML 3-1)
# 4 Lesson Learned (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Poseidon Steel (ML 8-1)
# 6 Romantic Gamble (ML 20-1)

# 7 Heat Merchant (ML 10-1)

# 8 Galvaston (ML 4-1)
# 9 Commander Joe (ML 6-1)

As with Race 7 above, none of those competing in this contest have been inside the winner's circle more than once in their respective careers.  For the inquiring minds which wish to know, Long Pond, Lesson Learned (Ire), and Heat Merchants are the three runners in this field that are available to be purchased for the claiming price.

Long Pond, while moving up in class over his last contest, earned a Placing at this class level back in May.  Long Pond may also benefit from the surface switch.

Uncle Joe has the dubious distinction of having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the majority of his seven career starts.  However, Uncle Joe certainly fits well at this class level, and Uncle Joe's sole lifetime Win came at today's distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - Md $15k - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Broke an Broken (ML 9-2)

B's

# 3 Silent Thunder (ML 10-1)

# 4 More Than Happy (ML 4-1)

# 5 Ngabe (ML 20-1)

# 7 Kodiak Mamba (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 9 Four Bounce (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 View From Egbert (ML 20-1)
# 2 Breach of Trust (ML 8-1)

# 6 The Band Coming (ML 20-1)

# 10 Win the Draw (ML 20-1)

# 11 Mia and Me (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 8 Lionesque (ML 15-1); but don't bring in the Also Eligible, # 13 Scenic Holiday (ML 20-1), because he's scratched too.

Broke an Broken, making his turf debut, took the Show against more expensive stock on the main track two starts back.  Silent Thunder is making his career debut here, and should be considered if only because none of the experienced runners in this field was able to finish in the money last time out.

More Than Happy is dropping into a class level more in line with his racing ability.  Ngabe will be competing with the blinkers off today; Trainer Carlos Grant has had success in the past when making that move.

Kodiak Mamba (Ire) could improve if he finally figures out that the goal is to run faster than the other horses, as opposed to running into them.  Four Bounce may run well in his vacation return.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 6 with 2 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 6,8,9,10 with 2,3,4,6 with 1,2 with 3,4,5,7,9,12 $38.40

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,12 with 6 with 2 with 12 $1.60

$0.20 P4: 10 with 1,5,7,8 with 2 with 12 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 10 with 6 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 12 $1.40

$0.20 P4: 10 with 6 with 2 with 1,2,6,10,11 $1.00

Total: $44.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:15 EDT / 1:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/10/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 10 Kawacatoose (Final Odds 2.00*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 5 Call My Banker (3.05*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 3 High Heat (1.90*) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 City Legend (2.00*) - "B" Selection

So close and yet so far.  Had my "A" Selection in the third leg, # 5 Rapid Reload (4.25), been a length quicker in getting to the line, then I would have cashed.  For that matter, had I made City Legend my "A" Selection in the final leg, instead of one of my three "B" Selections, I would have cashed.  But neither of those things happened; and for that reason, Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here is the $0.20 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the last leg of the sequence:

# 11 Framed (2.90) - $35.71 Finish: 4th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 5 / 3 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $33.08 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/10/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

"If what you did yesterday seems big, you haven't done anything today." - Lou Holtz

It's the week after a big holiday weekend: a time to regroup, review, and fish around for something to say in the introduction.  So with that chore completed let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 6 - OC 32k/N1X - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Kawacatoose (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Fielder (ML 10-1)

# 4 Aim for the Sky (ML 8-1)

# 6 Dotted Line (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Western Trouble (ML 12-1)

# 5 Celebratory (ML 20-1)

# 7 Happymac (ML 3-1)

# 8 Jibaro (ML 4-1)

# 9 Anarchy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Checkerboard Floor (ML 20-1)

For those who note such things, Aim for the Sky, Jibaro, Anarchy, and Kawacatoose are the four runners in this field that are NOT for sale for the claiming price.

Kawacatoose took the Place at this class level after doing all the heavy lifting last time out.  Fielder could move up off the class drop.  Aim for the Sky may improve with the cutback in distance.

Dotted Line goes first off the claim for Trainer Marty Drexler, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Call My Banker (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 1 Sailor's Passion (ML 4-1)

# 4 Luv to Win (ML 5-2)

# 6 Quiet Wyatt (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Summer Sunset (ML 8-1)

# 3 Lion of the Sea (ML 8-1)

# 7 Big Bad Beast (ML 20-1)

Note that this contest and Race 8 which follows have identical conditions.

Call My Banker could improve with the class drop.  Sailor's Passion has taken the Show at this class level in two of his three most recent starts.  Luv to Win was a debut winner last time out, and Trainer Norman McKnight tends to due well when placing his last out maiden winners.

Quiet Wyatt is another that could improve with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Rapid Reload (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 6 Mr Narcissistic (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Exceed (ML 9-2)

# 2 Passthepuddinpleaz (ML 7-2)

# 3 High Heat (ML 5-2)

# 4 Al Heybay (ML 12-1)

Note that this contest and Race 7 which precedes it have identical conditions.

Rapid Reload and Mr Narcissistic are two that could benefit from the class relief that they are getting here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - MOC 40k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 11 Framed (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Rat Portage (ML 6-1)

# 6 Dragon's Key (ML 10-1)

# 7 City Legend (ML 4-1)

C's

# 2 Crooner (ML 8-1)

# 4 Too Much Talk (ML 12-1)
# 5 Big Warden (ML 15-1)

# 8 Silent Risk (ML 20-1)

# 9 Opeechee (ML 20-1)

# 10 Pink Gelato (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 3 Repeat the Heat (ML 9-2)

For all those who are curious, Crooner, Too Much Talk, City Legend, and Framed are the entrants in this field that will be running with the $40k price tag on their heads.

Framed missed graduation by less than a length two starts back at this class level, while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Rat Portage has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts.

Dragon's Key took the Show at this class level exactly seven days ago while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  City Legend won the speed duel but had to settle for the Place at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 5 with 5 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 2,4,6,10 with 1,4,5,6 with 5,6 with 1,6,7,11 $25.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,5,7,8,9 with 5 with 5 with 11 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 10 with 2,3,7 with 5 with 11 $0.60

$0.20 P4: 10 with 5 with 1,2,3,4 with 11 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 10 with 5 with 5 with 2,4,5,8,9.10 $1.20

Total: $30.20

Post Time for Race 6 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/3/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 6 Chelsea Dagger (Final Odds 12.25) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 11 Day Tripper (6.55) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 1 Filo Di Arianna (Brz) (5.70) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - # 11 Churchtown (3.80) - "A" Selection

So removing Place finisher # 8 Henley's Joy (5.25) and Show runner # 3 A Thread of Blue (3.10*) from the big ticket in the final leg of the sequence and replacing them with Churchtown turned out to be the right move after all, as it made Sunday a day for me to collect instead of contribute.

For the record, here are the $0.20 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Mr. Diffley (18.00) - $2,094.69 Finish: 5th

# 2 Eskiminzin (7.75) - $1,103.68 Finish: 6th

# 10 Bella Nina (9.80) - $2,499.72 Finish: 9th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 11 / 1 / 11  which paid $1,079.17 for a twenty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $1,040.97 on my initial $38.20 investment, or approximate odds of 27.25-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/3/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." - The Declaration of Independence

I hope all of you in the USA and Canada are enjoying your holiday weekend.  I thought today would be a good day to blog, coming as it does right between Canada Day (July 1) and Independence Day (July 4).  So let's get to it as I celebrate my life and exercise my liberty by pursuing a little happiness, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Classic Legend (Morning Line 10-1)

B's

# 4 Gaston (ML 8-5)

# 6 Chelsea Dagger (ML 12-1)

# 8 Factotum (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Under Surveillance (ML 20-1)

# 5 Midnight Arkle (ML 20-1)

# 7 Magnificent Mario (ML 20-1)

# 9 Tiz Destiny (ML 4-1)

# 10 He's Got Soul (ML 12-1)

# 11 Collaborative (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Don't Tempt Fate (ML 8-1)

Classic Legend was the Post Time Favorite last time out in his debut.  I'm presuming that Classic Legend was injured in that contest, as that race was back in October, and Classic Legend did a classic job of advancing to the rear.  As Classic Legend's work tab shows a couple of bullets, I think it's safe to expect Classic Legend to be at his best today.

Gaston took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out.  Chelsea Dagger didn't show much in his three turf starts at Gulfstream Park; but perhaps the new locale and the change of surface will work in Chelsea Dagger's favor.

Factotum set all the fractions last time out until he faded; perhaps Factotum will be able to carry his speed at today's shorter distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Jinxed (Ire) (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Golden Burn (ML 20-1)

# 4 Allen Diggs (ML 4-1)

# 9 Jack (ML 10-1)

# 11 Day Tripper (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Ready for the Lady (ML 15-1)

# 3 Air Force Reserve (ML 8-1)

# 5 Sovereign Cause (ML 20-1)

# 7 You Make Me Happy (ML 20-1)

# 8 Phantom Jewel (ML 20-1)

# 10 Nikolaou (ML 5-1)

Jinxed (Ire) has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career starts.  Any move forward today by Jinxed could be enough for Jinxed to get his picture taken today.

Golden Burn showed less than nothing in his debut last time out; but with the change in surface, the addition of blinkers, and first time Lasix, it's fair to consider today's race a whole new beginning for Golden Burn.

Allen Diggs was just a nose behind Jinxed at the wire last time out.  Jack could be the one running best late, while Day Tripper just might be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - OC 80k B - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Avie's Flatter (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Filo di Arianna (Brz) (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Seventyseven Stone (ML 30-1)

# 3 Lenny K (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cash Dividend (ML 12-1)
# 5 Avoman (ML 20-1)

# 6 Prime Touch (ML 30-1)

# 7 Clayton (ML 3-1)

# 9 Roaring Forties (ML 6-1)
# 10 Old Chestnut (ML 8-1)

For those who note such things, none of the runners here are in for the $80k price tag.

Avie's Flatter, winner of the Grade 2 Nearctic last time out, is making his 2022 debut here.  A good case could be made for using Avie's Flatter as a single; but I want Filo di Arianna (Brz) on my main ticket as well.  Filo di Arianna could wake up off the class drop, and Filo di Arianna quite possibly could be overlooked by the bettors, as Filo di Arianna showed very little in each of his last two starts.  So it's two deep for me on my main ticket in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - OC 50k B - Seven and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 11 Churchtown (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Mr. Diffley (ML 12-1)

# 2 Eskiminzin (ML 10-1)

# 10 Bella Nina (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 A Thread of Blue (ML 7-2)

# 4 Bode's Tipsy (ML 12-1)

# 6 Bright Devil (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 7 Tycoon (ML 30-1)

# 8 Henley's Joy (ML 2-1)

# 9 Musical Ride (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Strike Silver (ML 15-1)

For the curious among you, A Thread of Blue and Bella Nina are the only two runners in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $50k price tag on their head.

Churchtown's only prior try on the grass would look a lot better had that race ended a furlong sooner.  Mr. Diffley was victorious the last time that he competed at today's distance over this inner turf course.

Eskiminzin could move up with the surface switch.  Bella Nina is on a four race winning streak; perhaps she can keep it going against the boys today.

Note that I'm not using either of the two shortest prices on the Morning Line, A Thread of Blue and Henley's Joy, on my main ticket.  A Thread of Blue has gone fifteen straight races without finding the winner's circle; while Henley's Joy's streak is currently at nineteen without a "W".  Perhaps one of them can turn that around today.  If so, God bless them and their connections.  But if this play is still alive heading into the nightcap, then I'm going to try to beat those two today, as I will be using them as backup "C" Selections, along with all others in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 8 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 3,4,6,8 with 1,4,6,9,11 with 1,8 with 1,2,10,11 $32.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 2,5,7,9,10,11 with 6 with 8 with 11 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 3 with 2,3,5,7,8,10 with 8 with 11 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 3 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 with 11 $1.60

$0.20 P4: 3 with 6 with 8 with 3,4,6,7,8,9 $1.20

Total: $38.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/26/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Ballade - # 9 Artie's Princess (Final Odds 0.75*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Lucky Score (4.20) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Rocket Joe Copper (3.75) - "A" Selection

Race 10 # 8 Luv to Win (5.90) - "C" Selection

Going five deep in the opening leg just to watch the odds-on Favorite win for fun was certainly not what I would call stellar handicapping on my part.  Still, the larger error that I made Sunday was, after strong consideration, choosing to leave Luv to Win off my main ticket.

I liked Luv to Win because his trainer, Norman McKnight, tends to do quite well with runners debuting in Maiden Claiming contests.  However, seeing as there were multiple runners who had previously finished in the money at this class level, as well as other runners in the field who were making a significant class drop, most of whom were older than the three year old Luv to Win, I thought that Luv to Win would be overmatched.  And I was wrong.  And because of that, Sunday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.20 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the last leg of the sequence:

# 3 Win the Draw (24.30) - $285.17 Finish: 11th

# 5 Bodie (6.50) - $92.91 Finish: 5th

# 6 Wicked Crazy (28.90) - $318.63 Finish: 9th

# 13 Dr Chrome (2.95*) - $ 102.09 Finish: 8th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 2 / 7 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $105.72 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/26/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Take the attitude of a student, never be too big to ask questions, never know too much to learn something new.” —Augustine Og Mandino

The $100k Ballade, a main track sprint for Ontario bred distaff runners, is Sunday's featured race in Toronto.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another un at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] The Ballade $100k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 November Fog (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 6 Golden Vision (ML 4-1)

# 7 Silent Causeway (ML 12-1)

# 9 Artie's Princess (ML 3-1)

# 13 Spanish Ballerina (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Red Equinox (ML 15-1)
# 3 Jilli Marie (ML 15-1)

# 4 Hello Friends (ML 20-1)

# 8 Ishiyaya (ML 20-1)

# 10 Lorena (ML 5-1)
# 11 Souper Pecan (ML 30-1)

# 12 Trading Bay (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 Mrs. Del (ML 30-1)

Among the places where the wandering mind will travel is the consideration that the [S] designation should perhaps be replaced with a [P] when referencing races in Canada.  But as with all such things, consistency wins out.  Anyway, if it's not already clear, all runners in this contest are Ontario bred.

November Fog, making her third start off the layoff, should benefit from the cutback in distance.  Spanish Ballerina and Golden Vision filled out the Exacta against open OC N2X company last time out over this main track.

Silent Causeway got under the wire a couple of lengths ahead of November Fog in the $100k La Prevoyante back in December.  Artie's Princess has shown an affinity for this main track in the past, and Artie's Princess is getting some significant class relief today.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 50k B - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Maclean's Posse (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Solidify (ML 4-1)

# 2 Lucky Score (ML 10-1)

C's

# 3 Circle of Friends (ML 6-1)
# 4 Sir Seamus (ML 12-1)

# 5 Hicksy (ML 8-1)

# 7 Malibu Secret (ML 15-1)

# 9 Tycoon (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 6 Real Money (ML 7-2)

For those who note such things, Solidify and Circle of Friends are the only two runners in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $50k price tag on their heads.

The Josie Carroll trained Maclean's Posse, a four year old colt making just his fourth career start, could be the real deal; in which case I'll look kinda foolish later today for having gone three deep in this leg.  But as I expect Maclean's Posse to face a more contentious pace Sunday than he has in his prior contests, I thought it prudent to have some backup.

Solidify and Lucky Score are both making a move down the class ladder, providing them both with an excellent opportunity to improve.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Rocket Joe Copper (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 3 Seguimi (ML 3-1)

# 6 Hyperfocus (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Mnemba Island (ML 5-2)

# 2 Ari Gold Speedwagn (ML 8-1)
# 4 Selfmade (ML 15-1)

# 5 Coleyville (ML 10-1)

# 8 Lion's Goldenheart (ML 20-1)

Rocket Joe Copper took the Show at this class level earlier this month, albeit for another barn.  Seguimi makes a move up the class ladder after winning by daylight against cheaper last time out.  Hyperfocus took the Place behind Seguimi last time out; perhaps the move from the inner turf to the outer course will aid Hyperfocus in what will almost certainly be another come from behind bid.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - Md $15k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 13 Dr Chrome (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Win the Draw (ML 10-1)
# 5 Bodie (ML 9-2)
# 6 Wicked Crazy (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Take Charge Sousi (ML 15-1)
# 2 Trebuchet (ML 10-1)
# 4 Stormin' Humor (ML 12-1)

# 8 Luv to Win (ML 6-1)

# 9 Mystic Point (ML 15-1)
# 10 The Coachman (ML 20-1)
# 11 Determined Friend (ML 15-1) 

# 14 View From Egbert (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 7 Painting the Moon (ML 15-1)

EDIT # 12 Northern Conquest (ML 12-1) has also been scratched

Dr Chrome took the Place at this class level last time out.  Win the Draw took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out.  Bodie and Wicked Crazy are two that could benefit from the move down the class ladder.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 8 with 7 with 13 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 1,6,7,9,13 with 1,2,8 with 3,6,7 with 3,5,6,13 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 2,3,4,8,10,11,12 with 8 with 7 with 13 $1.40

$0.20 P4: 1 with 3,4,5,7,9 with 7 with 13 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 1 with 8 with 1,2,4,5,8 with 13 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 1 with 8 with 7 with 1,2,4,8,9,10,11,14 $1.60

Total: $42.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/18/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 9 Goldstorm Glory (Final Odds 3.30) - "B" Selection 

Race 8 - # 3 Endorphin Rush (4.20) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Verdejo (2.20*) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - # 9 Late Surge (16.25) - "C" Selection

In Saturday's second leg (Race 8) my "A" Selection, # 5 Cheeky Pint (2.00*), was a neck too late in getting under the wire; while the nightcap saw # 8 Solis (11.85), one of my "B" Selections in that contest, settle for the Show, a little less than two lengths behind the winner.  So those were my two losses in the sequence; which, as you already know, is two losses too many if one is hoping to collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 3 / 3 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $273.40 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/18/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“I'd seen John around—in the chip shop, on the bus, that sort of thing—and thought he looked quite cool, but would we have ever talked?  I don't know.  As it happened, though, I had a school friend who knew John.  And then I also happened to share a bus journey with George to school.  All these small coincidences had to happen to make the Beatles happen, and it does feel like some kind of magic.  It's one of the wonderful lessons about saying yes when life presents these opportunities to you.  You never know where they might lead.” - Paul McCartney

Horse Racing's Triple Crown Season has ended for 2022; but, of course, opportunities for success still abound. And, well, that's about all I've got by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another un at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - (F) MOC 25k - Seven and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 8 Classic Queen (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Vlognier (ML 10-1)

# 4 Victoria Elizabeth (ML 12-1)

# 6 Suspicious Minds (ML 3-1)

# 9 Goldstorm Glory (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Forest Vixen (ML 8-1)

# 3 Frac Tales (ML 20-1)

# 7 Laila's Charm (ML 12-1)

#10 Nadiablizniz (ML 20-1)

# 11 High Treason (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Body of Law (ML 10-1), as well as all the Also Eligibles: # 12 Skinny Dippin (ML 15-1); # 13 Blue Twirlin (ML 9-5); # 14 Stole the Ring (ML 20-1); # 15 Smarty Illusion (ML 7-2); and # 16 Loaded Secret (ML 4-1)

For those who note such things, Frac Tales is the only runner in this field that will be leaving the gate without the $25k price tag on her head.

Classic Queen has taken the Show at this class level in each of her prior two starts.  Vlognier showed less than nothing in her debut last time out; but it's not unusual for Julia Carey trained runners to make a big move forward in their second career start.

Victoria Elizabeth is a first time starter in a field without a standout.  Also take note of Victoria Elizabeth's work on the grass on June 3.

Suspicious Minds finished in the Trifecta at this class level two and three starts back.  Goldstorm Glory may wake up with the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) OClm 10k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Cheeky Pint (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 4 Call Her Joey (ML 5-2)

# 8 Pluie d'Avril (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Ami's Link (ML 6-1)

# 3 Endorphin Rush (ML 3-1)

# 6 Crumblin Time (ML 8-1)

# 7 Anita Grigio (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Cocotara (ML 20-1)

This contest is a Starter Optional Claimer; an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, if you will.  A distaff runner is eligible to compete here tag free if she has started for a claiming price of $5k or less this year or last.  Otherwise, an entrant will be eligible to be claimed for $10k.  For those who note such things, Ami's Link and Pluie d'Avril are the only two runners in here that cannot be claimed for the $10k price tag.

Cheeky Pint took the Show at this class level last time out, and Cheeky Pint has run well in her career on the turf.  Call Her Joey, making her 2022 debut, looks well meant here.

Pluie d'Avril took the Show at this class level last time out, and Pluie d'Avril has run well in the the past when stretching out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Basalt Street (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Dixie Morning (ML 2-1)

# 3 Verdejo (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 American Gamble (ML 8-1)
# 4 Fourteen Days (ML 20-1)
# 6 Silent Ghost (ML 10-1)

# 7 Veery (ML 3-1)

Note that these entrants have visited the Winner's Circle just once in each of their respective careers.  Those that will be competing with the $40k price tag on their head are Verdejo, Basalt Street, and Silent Ghost.

Basalt Street ships in from Louisiana and will be competing on a synthetic surface for the first time.  Basalt Street's work over this main track at the beginning of the month suggests that she'll do quite well handling the fake stuff.

Dixie Morning took the Place at this class level while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  Verdejo should appreciate the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - Md $15k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Free Shipping (ML 3-1)

B's

# 7 The Band Coming (ML 12-1)

# 8 Solis (ML 8-1)

# 11 Linmighty (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Hayroll (ML 20-1)

# 2 Why Not Bourbon (ML 12-1)

# 3 Suigu (ML 4-1)

# 5 Mr. Commish (ML 20-1)

# 6 Quiet Rebel (ML 15-1)

# 9 Late Surge (ML 6-1)

# 10 Lil Bit Gangsta (ML 5-1)

Free Shipping is out to prove that the sixteenth time's the charm.  Free Shipping has finished in the Trifecta against more expensive stock, and this is the lowest price for which Free Shipping has ever competed.

The Band Coming could improve with the stretch out.  Solis could move up with the class drop.  Linmighty might prove that grass was what he wanted all along.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 5 with 5 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 2,4,6,8,9 with 4,5,8 with 2,3,5 with 4,7,8,11 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,3,7,10,11 with 5 with 5 with 4 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 8 with 2,3,6,7 with 5 with 4 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 8 with 5 with 1,4,6,7 with 4 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 8 with 5 with 5 with 1,2,3,5,6,9,10 $1.40

Total: $41.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:18 EDT / 1:18 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/4/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 8 Mr Crowley (Final Odds 2.80) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Royal North - # 5 Boardroom (2.85*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Souper Munnings (2.25*) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - # 8 Commanders Palace (11.80) - "C" Selection

In Saturday's nightcap at Woodbine, "B" Selection # 7 Marais (29.40) was a half length too late in getting under the wire, and had to settle for the Place.  So it was probably for the best that "A" Selection # 6 Millennium Force (2.50) lost the photo to Souper Munnings in Saturday's penultimate race; because being alive to a 29-1 shot in the final leg of The Late Pick Four just to see them take the Place by less than daylight would have been a much worse beat than the events that actually transpired.

Oh well, onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 5 / 3 / 8  were rewarded with a payout of $293.59 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/4/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“It's failure that gives you the proper perspective on success.” - Ellen DeGeneres

We're just a week away from the Belmont Stakes, the third and final leg of horse racing's Triple Crown.  So that leaves us with just seven days to build our respective bankrolls for what will certainly be a monster card in New York.  My attempt to increase my own stack of cash finds me once again scouring the card in Toronto, where Saturday's featured race is the Grade 2 Royal North.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - MOC 25k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Dixie's Flatter (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 3 Summer Sunset (ML 5-1)

# 4 Shambo (ML 20-1)

# 8 Mr Crowley (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Chocolate Run (ML 15-1)

# 2 Lilnmighty (ML 10-1)

# 5 Mr. Commish (ML 20-1)

# 7 Love the Game (ML 8-1)

# 9 Wicked Crazy (ML 20-1)

# 10 Determined Friend (ML 6-1)

For those who note such things, Mr. Commish is the only runner in this field to not be competing with the $25k price tag on his head.

Dixie's Flatter took the Show against more expensive stock last time out, and runners for Trainer Josie Carroll tend to do well going second off the layoff.  Summer Sunset took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

Shambo is making his 2022 debut, and is doing so for a new barn; specifically, the barn of Trainer Zeljko Krcmar, who tends to do well with new hires.  Mr Crowley showed good early speed in his debut last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) The Royal North (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Gidgetta (ML 12-1)

B's

# 5 Boardroom (ML 2-1)

# 6 Amalfi Coast (ML 5-2)

# 8 Souper Sensational (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Lady War Machine (ML 12-1)

# 2 In Good Spirits (ML 4-1)

# 3 Jeanie B (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 4 La Libertee (ML 20-1)

Gidgetta is making her 2022 debut here, and Gidgetta could be the one running best late.  Boardroom took the Place last time out in the Grade 2 Whimsical.  This will be Boardroom's first try on the grass.  If Boardroom takes to the turf, then expect Boardroom to try to get the jump on Gidgetta and take first run at the leaders.

Amalfi Coast is the defending champ for this event, having emerged victorious when it was last run in August 2021.  Souper Sensational, like Boardroom, is also making her turf debut.  Souper Sensational is a daughter of Curlin, who has sired enough turf stakes winners to make it reasonable to expect Souper Sensational to maintain her form with the surface switch.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 62.5k B - Five Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 6 Millennium Force (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Owen's Tour Guide (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Souper Munnings (ML 5-2)

# 4 Roman d'Oro (ML 6-1)

# 5 Amalfi Sky (ML 10-1)

# 7 Billyjane (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Hai Bobbi (ML 4-1)

For the record, Billyjane is the only runner here that will be leaving the gate with the $62.5k price tag on her head.

Millennium Force fits well at this level, and a strong case could be make for making Millennium Force a big ticket single.  However, I like how well Owen's Tour Guide has run on the Woodbine grass in the past; and because of that I'm willing to double the cost of my main ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) ALW N1X - Seven Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Ready Lady (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Cheerupsleepyjean (Fr) (ML 4-1)

# 7 Marais (ML 15-1)
# 9 Sake (Fr) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Teacher's Pet (ML 20-1)
# 2 Ann of Cleves (ML 20-1)

# 5 Quinte Road (ML 10-1)
# 6 She Makes a Point (ML 6-1)

# 8 Commanders Palace (ML 15-1)

# 10 Gloriannia (ML 30-1)
# 11 Sleek Lynx (GB) (ML 10-1)

# 12 English Biscuit (ML 30-1)

# 14 She's a Dream (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 13 Spider Belle (ML 20-1)

Ready Lady only prior career victory came at today's distance over this turf course.  Cheeupsleepyjean (Fr) is making her 2022 debut here, and can be expected to show more than she did last time out at Kentucky Downs.  Marais took the Place at this class level over the main track last time out.

Sake (Fr), making her 2022 debut, looks well meant here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 7 with 6 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 3,4,6,8 with 5,6,7,8 with 1,6 with 3,4,7,9 $25.60

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,5,7,9,10 with 7 with 6 with 3 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,4 with 6 with 3 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 6 with 7 with 3,4,5,7 with 3 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 6 with 7 with 6 with 1,2,5,6,8,10,11,12,14 $1.80

Total: $31.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 1 Ready To Venture (Final Odds 0.95*) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Grandson (1.65*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Bizymaline (2.40) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - # 9 Rondure (10.50) - "C" Selection

In the preview, I remarked, "If Ready To Venture can conquer the new surface and the distance, then she could make odds of 3-5 look like a gift."  As it turned out, the betting public was as skeptical regarding Ready To Venture's chances as I was, because when Ready To Venture won Race 7 as easily as she wanted, the gift turned out to be an even larger Final Odds of 4-5.  So anyway, trying to defeat what proved to be a legitimate Favorite was key among the reasons why Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well, onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 4 / 7 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $72.76 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Those who can imagine anything, can create the impossible.” - Alan Turing

It's the off-week between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness; for many a week of rest, but, for me, I'll be looking to Ontario to see if I can make some hay.  So with that as intro let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Sweet Carolena (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Ready To Venture (GB) (ML 3-5)

# 2 Veri Unified (ML 10-1)

# 3 Wicked Miah (ML 20-1)
# 4 Marais (ML 6-1)

# 5 Richies Noble Girl (ML 8-1)

# 7 Endorphin Rush (ML 20-1)

As you can see, I'm going one deep in this opening leg; but the runner that I'll be singling here is not the odds-on Morning Line Favorite.

Ready To Venture (GB) has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in each of her 2022 starts so far.  But those two starts were both on the turf (one at Fair Grounds, the other at Aqueduct) and both at a distance of eight and a half furlongs.  Ready To Venture has never previously competed on a synthetic surface, and Ready To Venture has yet to run a race at a distance of less than seven furlongs.

Now, if Ready To Venture can conquer the new surface and the distance, then she could make odds of 3-5 look like a gift.  But I'm going to roll the dice here and see if I can get myself an upset to kick things off.

Sweet Carolena took the Place over this main track last time out at this class level.  The runner Sweet Carolena finished behind was Beautiful Empire, who followed up that Allowance race victory by winning the $125k Star Shoot Stakes.  I'm going to play this sequence with the hope/expectation that Sweet Carolena can improve enough off that last start to get under the wire ahead of Ready To Venture, who I hope will be disadvantaged by the surface and/or distance.  So for me it's one deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Sovereign (ML 8-1)

B's

# 4 Grandson (ML 3-1)

# 5 Mr. De (ML 4-1)

# 6 Day Tripper (ML 2-1)

# 7 Midnight Arkle (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 2 Giant One (ML 6-1) and # 3 Cerebro (ML 8-1)

So right after my single I'll be punching the "ALL" button.  The problem I have with this race is that the two logical contenders, Day Tripper and Mr. De, in my mind represent the resistible force meeting the movable object.

Day Tripper and Mr. De filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this main track last time out.  But Day Tripper has been in this position several times before, and has always managed to miss graduation.  Meanwhile, Mr. De will be making his second career start; and, for whatever reason, Trainer Steve Chircop's runners don't seem to move forward when competing for the second time.

So since the top two contenders both appear to be vulnerable, and all other entrants seem to be equally qualified, I'm going to accept that this contest is a mystery that I can't solve, and punch the "ALL" button and move on.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Dictate (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 2 Erasmo's Girl (ML 5-2)

# 5 Mumblebee (ML 6-1)

# 7 Bizymaline (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Alluring Meg (ML 10-1)

# 4 Admonish (ML 20-1)

# 6 Super Leggera (ML 8-1)

Nothing fancy here.  Dictate, Erasmo's Girl, Mumblebee, and Bizymaline are all taking a step down on the class ladder, dropping into a class level where they can be competitive.  So those four make their way onto the main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 11 Stronger Together (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 War Safe (ML 5-1)

# 4 Don't Tempt Fate (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Golden Burn (ML 10-1)

# 2 Bill Needle (ML 10-1)

# 6 Crooner (ML 12-1)

# 7 Under Surveillance (ML 20-1)

# 8 Uh Oh It's Magic (ML 15-1)

# 9 Rondure (ML 20-1)

# 10 Allen Diggs (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 5 Icing (ML 7-2)

Stronger Together took the Place at this class level last time out, and Stronger Together's bullet work last Saturday suggests that he is ready to fire.

War Safe and Don't Tempt Fate are a pair of debut runners that have been working well for this contest.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 1 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 6 with ALL with 1,2,5,7 with 3,4,11 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 1 with 11 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 6 with 1 with 3,4,6 with 11 $0.60

$0.20 P4: 6 with 1 with 1 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 $1.40

Total: $16.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo