7/3/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." - The Declaration of Independence

I hope all of you in the USA and Canada are enjoying your holiday weekend.  I thought today would be a good day to blog, coming as it does right between Canada Day (July 1) and Independence Day (July 4).  So let's get to it as I celebrate my life and exercise my liberty by pursuing a little happiness, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Classic Legend (Morning Line 10-1)

B's

# 4 Gaston (ML 8-5)

# 6 Chelsea Dagger (ML 12-1)

# 8 Factotum (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Under Surveillance (ML 20-1)

# 5 Midnight Arkle (ML 20-1)

# 7 Magnificent Mario (ML 20-1)

# 9 Tiz Destiny (ML 4-1)

# 10 He's Got Soul (ML 12-1)

# 11 Collaborative (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Don't Tempt Fate (ML 8-1)

Classic Legend was the Post Time Favorite last time out in his debut.  I'm presuming that Classic Legend was injured in that contest, as that race was back in October, and Classic Legend did a classic job of advancing to the rear.  As Classic Legend's work tab shows a couple of bullets, I think it's safe to expect Classic Legend to be at his best today.

Gaston took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out.  Chelsea Dagger didn't show much in his three turf starts at Gulfstream Park; but perhaps the new locale and the change of surface will work in Chelsea Dagger's favor.

Factotum set all the fractions last time out until he faded; perhaps Factotum will be able to carry his speed at today's shorter distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Jinxed (Ire) (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Golden Burn (ML 20-1)

# 4 Allen Diggs (ML 4-1)

# 9 Jack (ML 10-1)

# 11 Day Tripper (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Ready for the Lady (ML 15-1)

# 3 Air Force Reserve (ML 8-1)

# 5 Sovereign Cause (ML 20-1)

# 7 You Make Me Happy (ML 20-1)

# 8 Phantom Jewel (ML 20-1)

# 10 Nikolaou (ML 5-1)

Jinxed (Ire) has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career starts.  Any move forward today by Jinxed could be enough for Jinxed to get his picture taken today.

Golden Burn showed less than nothing in his debut last time out; but with the change in surface, the addition of blinkers, and first time Lasix, it's fair to consider today's race a whole new beginning for Golden Burn.

Allen Diggs was just a nose behind Jinxed at the wire last time out.  Jack could be the one running best late, while Day Tripper just might be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - OC 80k B - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Avie's Flatter (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Filo di Arianna (Brz) (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Seventyseven Stone (ML 30-1)

# 3 Lenny K (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cash Dividend (ML 12-1)
# 5 Avoman (ML 20-1)

# 6 Prime Touch (ML 30-1)

# 7 Clayton (ML 3-1)

# 9 Roaring Forties (ML 6-1)
# 10 Old Chestnut (ML 8-1)

For those who note such things, none of the runners here are in for the $80k price tag.

Avie's Flatter, winner of the Grade 2 Nearctic last time out, is making his 2022 debut here.  A good case could be made for using Avie's Flatter as a single; but I want Filo di Arianna (Brz) on my main ticket as well.  Filo di Arianna could wake up off the class drop, and Filo di Arianna quite possibly could be overlooked by the bettors, as Filo di Arianna showed very little in each of his last two starts.  So it's two deep for me on my main ticket in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - OC 50k B - Seven and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 11 Churchtown (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Mr. Diffley (ML 12-1)

# 2 Eskiminzin (ML 10-1)

# 10 Bella Nina (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 A Thread of Blue (ML 7-2)

# 4 Bode's Tipsy (ML 12-1)

# 6 Bright Devil (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 7 Tycoon (ML 30-1)

# 8 Henley's Joy (ML 2-1)

# 9 Musical Ride (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Strike Silver (ML 15-1)

For the curious among you, A Thread of Blue and Bella Nina are the only two runners in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $50k price tag on their head.

Churchtown's only prior try on the grass would look a lot better had that race ended a furlong sooner.  Mr. Diffley was victorious the last time that he competed at today's distance over this inner turf course.

Eskiminzin could move up with the surface switch.  Bella Nina is on a four race winning streak; perhaps she can keep it going against the boys today.

Note that I'm not using either of the two shortest prices on the Morning Line, A Thread of Blue and Henley's Joy, on my main ticket.  A Thread of Blue has gone fifteen straight races without finding the winner's circle; while Henley's Joy's streak is currently at nineteen without a "W".  Perhaps one of them can turn that around today.  If so, God bless them and their connections.  But if this play is still alive heading into the nightcap, then I'm going to try to beat those two today, as I will be using them as backup "C" Selections, along with all others in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 8 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 3,4,6,8 with 1,4,6,9,11 with 1,8 with 1,2,10,11 $32.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 2,5,7,9,10,11 with 6 with 8 with 11 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 3 with 2,3,5,7,8,10 with 8 with 11 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 3 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,9,10 with 11 $1.60

$0.20 P4: 3 with 6 with 8 with 3,4,6,7,8,9 $1.20

Total: $38.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo