7/31/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Ones best success comes after their greatest disappointments.” - Henry Ward Beecher

Ontario bred juveniles kick off the sequence on this final day of July, 2022; and, as with any juvenile race in July, chaos is the expected order of the day.  So with that as prelude let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 6 - [S] MOC 40k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Boss Holiday (Morning Line 6-5)

B’s

# 5 One More Brew (ML 5-1)

# 7 Housebuilder (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Today (ML 10-1)

# 2 Big Investment (ML 12-1)

# 3 Jim's Hope (ML 8-1)

# 6 Don't Stop Dreamin (ML 6-1)

# 8 River of Babylon (ML 20-1)

For those who note such things, Big Investment and Housebuilder, two of the three experienced runners in this field, are the only two runners that will be competing with the $40k price tag on their respective heads.  In addition, note that, while the racing secretary may not had intended it to be so, all these entrants are Ontario bred.

I mentioned in the intro above that these are juveniles; so you should feel free to spread as far and wide as your budget will allow.  But that's "Do as I say, not as I do" advice.  I think Boss Holiday is going to be pretty tough to beat in this spot.  Boss Holiday took the Place in his debut last time out behind Poulin in O T, who went on to win the $125k Victoria Stakes.  And while Boss Holiday was making no headway versus Poulin in O T in that contest, Boss Holiday did distance himself from the rest of the field in the stretch.

Still, singling a juvenile in July requires confidence that I'm not finding within myself today.  So I'm also including first time starter One More Brew on the main ticket, as One More Brew looks well meant here.  Finally, Housebuilder, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, goes on the main ticket as well.  As per usual, all other entrants will be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - OClm 15k - Five Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 2 Big League (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 8 Executive Sight (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Tricky Magician (ML 6-1)

# 3 Ikerrin Road (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 4 Alacritous (ML 8-1)

# 5 Crafty Conquest (ML 2-1)

# 6 Gasconade (ML 20-1)

# 7 Tall Water (ML 20-1)

This contest is a Starter Optional Claimer; an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, if you will.  A runner is eligible to compete here tag free if he has started for a claiming price of $7.5k or less this year or last.  Otherwise, an entrant will be eligible to be claimed for $15k.  For those who note such things, Big League and Tall Water are the only two runners in here that cannot be claimed for the $15k price tag.

Big League, returning from a nearly two year absence from competition, is going first off the claim for Trainer Martin Drexler, who tends to do well with such.  Big League also displays a nice, steady work tab leading into this contest.

Executive Sight could move up with the cutback in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 50k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Emmeline (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Rockstar (ML 5-2)

# 7 Souper Legacy (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Twenty Four Mamba (ML 12-1)

# 3 Chelsea Dagger (ML 6-1)

# 5 City Legend (ML 10-1)

# 6 Sugar Ray (ML 8-5)

Souper Legacy is the only entrant in this field that has visited the winner's circle more than once; and, therefore, Souper Legacy is the only entrant in this field that is eligible to be claimed for $50k.

Emmeline is a filly taking on the boys, and I think that this daughter of Violence has what it takes to get the job done today, especially at the seven furlong distance.  Rockstar took the Place at this class level last time out.  Perhaps more consideration should be given to making Rockstar the top pick here; but the concern is that Rockstar seems to settle for too many minor awards.

As mentioned above, Souper Legacy is the only entrant in this field to have defeated winners.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Jibaro (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Regal Intent (ML 8-1)

# 9 Passthepuddinpleaz (ML 9-2)

# 10 Tourist's Dream (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Al Heybay (ML 7-2)

# 3 View From Egbert (ML 10-1)

# 5 Bullet Speed (ML 20-1)
# 7 Small Talk (ML 12-1)

# 8 Prince of Thieves (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Exceed (ML 15-1)

Jibaro is being priced to sell here.  Jibaro should do well with the class drop.  Regal Intent took the Show against classier competition two starts back.  Passthepuddinpleaz took the Place at this class level two starts back and three starts back.

Tourist's Dream could do well with the cutback in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 1 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 4,5,7 with 2,8 with 1,4,7 with 4,6,9,10 $14.40

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,6,8 with 2 with 1 with 6 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 4 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 with 6 $1.20

$0.20 P4: 4 with 2 with 2,3,5,6 with 6 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 4 with 2 with 1 with 2,3,5,7,8 $1.00

Total: $19.40

Post Time for Race 6 is 3:42 EDT / 12:42 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo