7/17/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

"A mediocre idea that generates enthusiasm will go further than a great idea that inspires no one." - Mary Kay

The Victoria Stakes, a $125k contest for juveniles, is Sunday's featured race in Ontario.  However, I'll be making no commentary on that contest, being that it was carded as Race 3 in the program.  Rather, my focus will be on the Final Four races on the card, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 7 - OC 50k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Tour of Duty (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 6 Money Printer (ML 12-1)

# 8 Glider (ML 6-1)

# 9 Holyfield (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Bet N Win (ML 20-1)
# 2 October Frost (ML 10-1)
# 3 Master McGrath (ML 4-1)

# 4 Racing in the Rain (ML 10-1)

# 5 Hidden Honor (ML 3-1)

# 7 Leslie Chow (ML 15-1)

# 11 Ice Road (ML 20-1)

# 12 Malibu Edge (ML 12-1)

I inserted the N2L into the condition line above because none of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once.  For those who are curious regarding such matters, October Frost is the only entrant here competing with the $50k price tag on his head.

Tour of Duty took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.  Money Printer missed by just a length against classier opposition last time out after doing most of the heavy lifting in that contest.

Glider could improve with the surface switch.  Holyfield is getting some much need class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 32k/N1X - Six Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Dragon's Brew (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 2 Diamond City (ML 4-1)

# 3 There's No Joe (ML 5-2)

# 4 Victorious Wave (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Downy Boy (ML 3-1)

# 5 Executive Search (ML 10-1)

# 7 Nevaeh's Dream (ML 8-1)

# 8 Ghoul (Brz) (ML 12-1)

For those who take note of such things, Executive Search, Dragon's Brew, Nevaeh's Dream, and Ghoul (Brz) are the runners in this field that will be competing with the "For Sale" sign on their heads.

Dragon's Brew may have needed that last race following his sabbatical.  Diamond City, making his 2022 debut, has previously shown the ability to run well off works.  There's No Joe finished in the Trifecta (Triactor) against classier in each of his last two starts.

Victorious Wave is another making his 2022 debut.  As Victorious Wave was a winner first time out, he can be expected to run well off the bench.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - OC 40k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Long Pond (ML 10-1)

B's

# 1 Uncle Joe (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Perfect Crime (ML 3-1)
# 4 Lesson Learned (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Poseidon Steel (ML 8-1)
# 6 Romantic Gamble (ML 20-1)

# 7 Heat Merchant (ML 10-1)

# 8 Galvaston (ML 4-1)
# 9 Commander Joe (ML 6-1)

As with Race 7 above, none of those competing in this contest have been inside the winner's circle more than once in their respective careers.  For the inquiring minds which wish to know, Long Pond, Lesson Learned (Ire), and Heat Merchants are the three runners in this field that are available to be purchased for the claiming price.

Long Pond, while moving up in class over his last contest, earned a Placing at this class level back in May.  Long Pond may also benefit from the surface switch.

Uncle Joe has the dubious distinction of having disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in the majority of his seven career starts.  However, Uncle Joe certainly fits well at this class level, and Uncle Joe's sole lifetime Win came at today's distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - Md $15k - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Broke an Broken (ML 9-2)

B's

# 3 Silent Thunder (ML 10-1)

# 4 More Than Happy (ML 4-1)

# 5 Ngabe (ML 20-1)

# 7 Kodiak Mamba (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 9 Four Bounce (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 View From Egbert (ML 20-1)
# 2 Breach of Trust (ML 8-1)

# 6 The Band Coming (ML 20-1)

# 10 Win the Draw (ML 20-1)

# 11 Mia and Me (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 8 Lionesque (ML 15-1); but don't bring in the Also Eligible, # 13 Scenic Holiday (ML 20-1), because he's scratched too.

Broke an Broken, making his turf debut, took the Show against more expensive stock on the main track two starts back.  Silent Thunder is making his career debut here, and should be considered if only because none of the experienced runners in this field was able to finish in the money last time out.

More Than Happy is dropping into a class level more in line with his racing ability.  Ngabe will be competing with the blinkers off today; Trainer Carlos Grant has had success in the past when making that move.

Kodiak Mamba (Ire) could improve if he finally figures out that the goal is to run faster than the other horses, as opposed to running into them.  Four Bounce may run well in his vacation return.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 6 with 2 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 6,8,9,10 with 2,3,4,6 with 1,2 with 3,4,5,7,9,12 $38.40

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7,11,12 with 6 with 2 with 12 $1.60

$0.20 P4: 10 with 1,5,7,8 with 2 with 12 $0.80

$0.20 P4: 10 with 6 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 12 $1.40

$0.20 P4: 10 with 6 with 2 with 1,2,6,10,11 $1.00

Total: $44.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:15 EDT / 1:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo