Hey, we hit the Pick Four! Too bad we lost money doing it.
The sequence started off as well as it could, as Race 8 - The Happy Ticket went to # 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Final Odds 6.60), the highest priced of our three selections, who crossed the wire just a neck in front of # 5 Bern Legacy (4.30). We also clicked on Race 9 - The Temperance Hill as well bet Favorite # 4 Gantry (0.40*) was an easy winner, passing the finish line more than four lengths ahead of Place horse # 5 Louisiana Glory (2.40). So after two races both of our tickets were still alive.
Things started to get shakey for us with Race 10 - The Unbridled; for while we had the winner, # 4 Major Marvel (2.40), we had him just on our fifty cent ticket, not on our one dollar ticket. So when # 7 Departing (0.30*) won Race 11 - The Super Derby by a comfortable four lengths we found ourselves holding a winning Pick Four ticket worth $27.50; or $25 less than our initial investment.
Hindsight being 20/20, it's clear that Departing was a standout in the Super Derby field. Adding insult to injury, the two horses with which we tried to defeat Departing, # 1 Bashaar (6.50) and # 2 Holiday Mischief (16.50), finished next-to-last and last, respectively. So we tried to beat a legitimate favorite and we paid the price for it; but at least we didn't lose our entire stake.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Showing posts with label Louisiana Downs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Louisiana Downs. Show all posts
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Saturday, September 7, 2013
9/7/13 LaD 7 - The River Cities - Results
We got a few things right in our preview of The River Cities; so while I personally did not make the right play in this one, hopefully at least some of you made the right move.
As we expected, # 5 Queenie Vic (5.80) was the speed of the speed, taking the early lead and setting the pace for the first six furlongs of the race. # 2 Grandma's Rules (3.60) was right behind Queenie Vic throughout the first three quarters before taking her on in the turn and then over taking her in the stretch, crossing the wire two and a half lengths in front of Queenie Vic, who showed a lot of heart in holding the Place. # 7 Miss Addison (3.60), whom I made the top choice in my personal play, took the Show in photo over # 1 Cho Cho Cat (18.70). Meanwhile, Post Time Favorite # 6 Artemus Kitten (1.10*) turned in a "dull effort" (to quote the chart caller) and finished dead last.
So we correctly identified a race with a vulnerable favorite that delivered good value to those who played it right, and we tip our hat to all who came away with a profit. Congrats also go out to the connections of Grandma Rules, who continue to enjoy success with this one time $25k claimer.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
As we expected, # 5 Queenie Vic (5.80) was the speed of the speed, taking the early lead and setting the pace for the first six furlongs of the race. # 2 Grandma's Rules (3.60) was right behind Queenie Vic throughout the first three quarters before taking her on in the turn and then over taking her in the stretch, crossing the wire two and a half lengths in front of Queenie Vic, who showed a lot of heart in holding the Place. # 7 Miss Addison (3.60), whom I made the top choice in my personal play, took the Show in photo over # 1 Cho Cho Cat (18.70). Meanwhile, Post Time Favorite # 6 Artemus Kitten (1.10*) turned in a "dull effort" (to quote the chart caller) and finished dead last.
So we correctly identified a race with a vulnerable favorite that delivered good value to those who played it right, and we tip our hat to all who came away with a profit. Congrats also go out to the connections of Grandma Rules, who continue to enjoy success with this one time $25k claimer.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/13 La Downs All-Stakes Pick Four - The Play
Since today's fields are so small, I'm doing something a little different: in addition to my usual all "A's" ticket, I'm also combining all contenders onto one ticket, rather than separating "A"'s from "C". So the only two Pick Four Tickets we'll be playing today are:
This one for one dollar:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 5
RACE 10: 6, 7
RACE 11: 7
Cost: $12.00
and this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 3, 4, 5
RACE 10: 4, 6, 7
RACE 11: 1, 2, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $52.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
This one for one dollar:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 5
RACE 10: 6, 7
RACE 11: 7
Cost: $12.00
and this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 3, 4, 5
RACE 10: 4, 6, 7
RACE 11: 1, 2, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $52.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/13 La Downs All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview
Today's Super Derby Day at Louisiana Downs, and to celebrate they're offering a $100k guaranteed all-stakes Pick Four in Races 8 - 10 (inclusive). So while the fields are small, there may be value to be found.
RACE 8 - (F) The Happy Ticket $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Morning Line 5-1) and # 2 Redgrass Cat (ML 7-2) finished just a neck apart in the Donnie Wilhite Memorial over this turf course last time out, with Redgrass Cat crossing the wire first. Both have worked well since that performance, and their respective Tomlinson Turf/Distance Ratings indicate that the extra half furlong of today’s contest shouldn’t pose any difficulties. Look for both to be in the mix at the end.
# 5 Bern Legacy (ML 4-1) was sired by the late Bernstein, so you know there’s both class and grass running through her genes. Note that the Place horse in Bern Legacy’s maiden win went on to graduate her next time out.
Juvenile fillies just may be the most unpredictable horses on the grounds; but I’m optimistic that I can get by in this one without having to spread too wide.
RACE 9 - The Temperance Hill $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 4 Gantry (ML 8-5) didn’t show his best his last time out in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, though he did take the Place. Since that was Gantry’s debut on a synthetic surface, it may be fair to say that he did not appreciate having to compete on the fake stuff. One thing Gantry is sure to appreciate today is the absence of Delaunay, to whom Gantry has four times in his last six performances played second fiddle. Gantry’s Beyers in his last six races not run on plastic are 99, 99, and 96.
# 5 Louisiana Glory (ML 5-2) is the local hero in this one, with three Wins and a Place in his four career tries over the main dirt track. Louisiana Glory enters this one off back-to-back victories over this track at this distance, having earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in each of those contests. Louisiana Glory has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at this distance in his career.
# 8 Unitas (ML 8-1) makes a turn back in distance after finishing off the board in the Evangeline Mile Handicap; Trainer Brett Brinkman does quite well with that maneuver. Note that Unitas has won his last three races that weren’t run over a sealed track, including the $50k Need For Speed Stakes.
Gantry’s back class and speed figures would normally be enough to seriously consider making him a single. But the fact that this six year old has taken the Place five times in his last six starts could be a red flag that age has turned him into a hanger (or maybe Delaunay is just a lot better than I’m giving him credit for being).
RACE 10 - The Unbridled $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 7 Global Power (ML 2-1) is the defending champ here, having taken this event last year by taking the field gate to wire; worth noting is that was the only other time in Global Power’s career that he has competed over this turf course. Also worth noting is that Global Power enters this year’s event in a similar manner to last year; that is, by having wired the field in another $100k contest at a different turf course in his prior race. Derby Kitten, the Place horse in Global Power’s last, came back to win a $50k event at Ellis Park her next time out.
# 6 String King (ML 9-5) has done a fine job against his fellow Louisiana bred runners, winning four times and taking the Place twice in his last six contests in state restricted stakes. However, String King’s record against open company is somewhat less impressive; so while this may not be the strongest of fields, it is a step up the class ladder for String King.
# 4 Major Marvel (ML 2-1) enters today’s contest with a four race winning streak, and six victories in his last seven races. However, all those were in non-stakes events against much cheaper competition. So while there’s no disputing Trainer Michael Maker’s credentials, Major Marvel will definitely have to pick up his game in order to come away with first prize in this one.
RACE 11 - The Super Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Departing (ML 1-1) is the class leader here, being the only entrant with wins in Graded Stakes events, having won both the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Look for Departing to be bet far down from his Morning Line odds.
# 1 Bashaar (ML 7-2) has posted Beyers above ninety in each of his last three races. Bashaar’s fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy his last time out is certainly not as impressive as a Grade 2 victory, but note that Bashaar was competing in a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice along with Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge.
# 2 Holiday Mischief (ML 10-1) has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in the field, and is also the only contestant in today’s event with a win over the main Louisiana Downs track. Certainly rates an upset chance.
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. My Pick Four tickets to follow shortly.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) The Happy Ticket $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Morning Line 5-1) and # 2 Redgrass Cat (ML 7-2) finished just a neck apart in the Donnie Wilhite Memorial over this turf course last time out, with Redgrass Cat crossing the wire first. Both have worked well since that performance, and their respective Tomlinson Turf/Distance Ratings indicate that the extra half furlong of today’s contest shouldn’t pose any difficulties. Look for both to be in the mix at the end.
# 5 Bern Legacy (ML 4-1) was sired by the late Bernstein, so you know there’s both class and grass running through her genes. Note that the Place horse in Bern Legacy’s maiden win went on to graduate her next time out.
Juvenile fillies just may be the most unpredictable horses on the grounds; but I’m optimistic that I can get by in this one without having to spread too wide.
RACE 9 - The Temperance Hill $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 4 Gantry (ML 8-5) didn’t show his best his last time out in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, though he did take the Place. Since that was Gantry’s debut on a synthetic surface, it may be fair to say that he did not appreciate having to compete on the fake stuff. One thing Gantry is sure to appreciate today is the absence of Delaunay, to whom Gantry has four times in his last six performances played second fiddle. Gantry’s Beyers in his last six races not run on plastic are 99, 99, and 96.
# 5 Louisiana Glory (ML 5-2) is the local hero in this one, with three Wins and a Place in his four career tries over the main dirt track. Louisiana Glory enters this one off back-to-back victories over this track at this distance, having earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in each of those contests. Louisiana Glory has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at this distance in his career.
# 8 Unitas (ML 8-1) makes a turn back in distance after finishing off the board in the Evangeline Mile Handicap; Trainer Brett Brinkman does quite well with that maneuver. Note that Unitas has won his last three races that weren’t run over a sealed track, including the $50k Need For Speed Stakes.
Gantry’s back class and speed figures would normally be enough to seriously consider making him a single. But the fact that this six year old has taken the Place five times in his last six starts could be a red flag that age has turned him into a hanger (or maybe Delaunay is just a lot better than I’m giving him credit for being).
RACE 10 - The Unbridled $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 7 Global Power (ML 2-1) is the defending champ here, having taken this event last year by taking the field gate to wire; worth noting is that was the only other time in Global Power’s career that he has competed over this turf course. Also worth noting is that Global Power enters this year’s event in a similar manner to last year; that is, by having wired the field in another $100k contest at a different turf course in his prior race. Derby Kitten, the Place horse in Global Power’s last, came back to win a $50k event at Ellis Park her next time out.
# 6 String King (ML 9-5) has done a fine job against his fellow Louisiana bred runners, winning four times and taking the Place twice in his last six contests in state restricted stakes. However, String King’s record against open company is somewhat less impressive; so while this may not be the strongest of fields, it is a step up the class ladder for String King.
# 4 Major Marvel (ML 2-1) enters today’s contest with a four race winning streak, and six victories in his last seven races. However, all those were in non-stakes events against much cheaper competition. So while there’s no disputing Trainer Michael Maker’s credentials, Major Marvel will definitely have to pick up his game in order to come away with first prize in this one.
RACE 11 - The Super Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Departing (ML 1-1) is the class leader here, being the only entrant with wins in Graded Stakes events, having won both the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Look for Departing to be bet far down from his Morning Line odds.
# 1 Bashaar (ML 7-2) has posted Beyers above ninety in each of his last three races. Bashaar’s fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy his last time out is certainly not as impressive as a Grade 2 victory, but note that Bashaar was competing in a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice along with Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge.
# 2 Holiday Mischief (ML 10-1) has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in the field, and is also the only contestant in today’s event with a win over the main Louisiana Downs track. Certainly rates an upset chance.
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. My Pick Four tickets to follow shortly.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/13 LaD 7 - The River Cities - Preview
While it's not a part of the all-stakes Pick Four at Louisiana Downs that I expect to be playing Saturday, I thought the following contest was worth a look:
RACE 7 - (F) The River Cities $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Artemus Kitten (Morning Line 7-5) is the clear class of the field; not only is she Graded Stakes placed, she also has over a quarter of a million dollars in turf earnings. That's is not just more than any other entrant in the field; it's more than any two other entrants in this field combined. And no wonder; she’s a descendant of Kitten’s Joy, and all those cats are tough on the grass. But Artemus Kitten has been having some trouble finding the Winner’s Circle lately, going oh-for-five over the past six months. And you can’t just blame that cold streak on the level of competition, as two of those five events were un-graded stakes, on par with today’s contest. Artemus Kitten is definitely the one to beat here; but you certainly don’t want to take too short a price on her.
# 2 Grandma’s Rules (ML 5-2) missed by a neck of coming into this one with two straight stakes wins. Trainer Richard Scherer scooped her up for $25k out of an Arlington Park Claimer a little over a year ago and has been riding the hot hand since, as Grandma’s Rules has kept right on winning as she’s moved on up the class ladder.
# 7 Miss Addison (ML 4-1) took the Matron Stakes at Evangeline two starts back, finishing a length and a half in front of Little Polka Dot; who in turn went on to win the $100k Louisiana Cup Distaff Stakes last month. Miss Addison had a tough trip last time out in the TaWee Stakes, where she drew the rail and found herself with a shortage of running room. She’ll welcome the outside post today, along with a return to the saddle of Jockey Richard Eramia.
# 5 Queenie Vic (ML 6-1) could be the quickest of this lot; she’s also the local hero, with a lifetime four-for-four record on the La Downs Turf. I expect Patrick Valenzuela to be sending # 1 Cho Cho Cat (ML 15-1) hard out of the gate right along the rail. But Cho Cho Cat isn’t a front runner; and she may not be comfortable on the lead. If that indeed proves to be the case, then Queenie Vic may just find herself all alone on the front end early in this one.
As stated above, this race isn’t part of the all-Stakes Pick Four that I’ll be playing Saturday; but I handicapped it because I think that there may be value here, especially if Morning Line Favorite Artemus Kitten gets overbet. I’m currently leaning towards Miss Addison; if she goes to post at 5-1 or higher, then she’ll certainly be an overlay in my book.
Post Time for The River Cities is 4:08 EDT / 1:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - (F) The River Cities $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Artemus Kitten (Morning Line 7-5) is the clear class of the field; not only is she Graded Stakes placed, she also has over a quarter of a million dollars in turf earnings. That's is not just more than any other entrant in the field; it's more than any two other entrants in this field combined. And no wonder; she’s a descendant of Kitten’s Joy, and all those cats are tough on the grass. But Artemus Kitten has been having some trouble finding the Winner’s Circle lately, going oh-for-five over the past six months. And you can’t just blame that cold streak on the level of competition, as two of those five events were un-graded stakes, on par with today’s contest. Artemus Kitten is definitely the one to beat here; but you certainly don’t want to take too short a price on her.
# 2 Grandma’s Rules (ML 5-2) missed by a neck of coming into this one with two straight stakes wins. Trainer Richard Scherer scooped her up for $25k out of an Arlington Park Claimer a little over a year ago and has been riding the hot hand since, as Grandma’s Rules has kept right on winning as she’s moved on up the class ladder.
# 7 Miss Addison (ML 4-1) took the Matron Stakes at Evangeline two starts back, finishing a length and a half in front of Little Polka Dot; who in turn went on to win the $100k Louisiana Cup Distaff Stakes last month. Miss Addison had a tough trip last time out in the TaWee Stakes, where she drew the rail and found herself with a shortage of running room. She’ll welcome the outside post today, along with a return to the saddle of Jockey Richard Eramia.
# 5 Queenie Vic (ML 6-1) could be the quickest of this lot; she’s also the local hero, with a lifetime four-for-four record on the La Downs Turf. I expect Patrick Valenzuela to be sending # 1 Cho Cho Cat (ML 15-1) hard out of the gate right along the rail. But Cho Cho Cat isn’t a front runner; and she may not be comfortable on the lead. If that indeed proves to be the case, then Queenie Vic may just find herself all alone on the front end early in this one.
As stated above, this race isn’t part of the all-Stakes Pick Four that I’ll be playing Saturday; but I handicapped it because I think that there may be value here, especially if Morning Line Favorite Artemus Kitten gets overbet. I’m currently leaning towards Miss Addison; if she goes to post at 5-1 or higher, then she’ll certainly be an overlay in my book.
Post Time for The River Cities is 4:08 EDT / 1:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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