4/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Results

Race 5 - # 10 Golden Dagger (Final Odds 3.96) - "C+" Selection

Race 6 - # 3 Peruvian Lucky (2.59) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - The Serena's Song - # 7 Sunday Shoes (1.17*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Takafumi (Brz) (2.78) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 11 Noble Jon (8.63) - "C" Selection

Not a horrible evening of handicapping.  After all, I did get my big ticket single home in Sunday Shoes.  I also got another of my "A" Selections home, Takafumi (Brz), and Takafumi wasn't the Post Time Favorite.  But those were the only two big ticket winners that I had correct.

Worse was my overall impression of the first two legs.  I had sided with the experienced runners in the opening leg, only to watch debut entrant Golden Dagger get under the wire first.  In the second leg I had faded the experienced runners in favor of the first timers, just to have, yep, Peruvian Lucky win in her sixth try.  I feel justified in recommending the usage of the "ALL" button in the nightcap, as that leg produced the highest paying winner in the sequence; so I'll put that one in the positive column, despite not following that recommendation myself.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  10 / 3 / 7 / 4 / 11  were rewarded with a payout of $2,413.89 for their fifty cent wager.  Those who had four out of the five correct collect $21.87.  Unfortunately, tonight I find myself belonging to neither group.  

May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

“Ends are not bad things, they just mean that something else is about to begin.  And there are many things that don't really end, anyway, they just begin again in a new way.  Ends are not bad and many ends aren't really an ending; some things are never-ending.” - C Joybell C

And so we arrive at the final day of the thoroughbred meeting in Florence, KY.  Being the final day means, of course, that everything must go; including the Jackpot Pick Six pool, which has a carryover entering Saturday of $28,580.  But if you looked at the title of this post, you already know that I'll be passing on the Pick Six pool in favor of The Late Pick Five, which has its own carryover of $66,517, thanks to Friday's Early Pick Five going unhit.  So with that as intro let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k - Six and one Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 4 Heart Spin (Morning Line 7-2); # 5 Mo Betty (ML 8-1); # 6 It Factor (ML 6-1); and # 14 Shemademeblush (ML 7-2)

To me, this race is a contest between the first time starters and the experienced runners.  In my humble opinion, if, after removing the scratches, you divide the runners into those two categories, neither grouping has a standout among them.  So this, in my mind, becomes a spread leg, with the width of the spread dependent on the size of your bankroll (as well as how deep you plan on spreading in subsequent legs).

For me, I sided with the experienced runners, giving preference to those who have already had one or more races on my main ticket.  The lone exception was # 1 Red Hot Jeanie (ML 12-1).  I found Red Hot Jeanie's work of March 21 over this track too good to ignore; especially at the Morning Line price.  I therefore slotted Red Hot Jeanie in as a "B+" Selection.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six and one Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Stirdatpot (ML 4-1)

In this leg I decided to fade the experienced entrants.  I'm only going three deep here, and all three are debut runners: # 4 Run for Reagan (ML 10-1); # 8 Midnight Channel (ML 8-1); and # 9 Man With the Moves (ML 12-1).  Quite frankly, my concern here is not if one of the experienced runners should suddenly take a big step forward; but rather that none of the first time trio that I've placed on my main ticket will fire.  In my opinion, talent is definitely on the side of the debut starters; now it's just a matter of who will run to their best ability.  If you're unsure, then by all means sprinkle in the more favored in the field as your bankroll allows.  But for me, as I have my trio, and here's where I make my stand.

RACE 7 - (F) The Serena's Song $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 1 Bulsara (ML 5-1) and # 4 Safeen (ML 15-1)

Now we arrive at the final Listed Stakes of the meeting, an event carded for three year old fillies.  I spent a long, long time studying this race, looking for any excuse to not use the Wesley Ward trained # 7 Sunday Shoes (ML 7-2) as a big ticket single.  It was a question of whether or not to include one or both of # 9 Jill Jitterbug (ML 10-1) and # 12 B G Warrior (ML 6-1).  Ultimately I decided that Ward's filly is simply too good to fade, at least with any significant dollar amount, as would be the case by doubling or trebling the cost of my main ticket.  So it's Sunday Shoes solo in this leg, with my main concern being that I make it out of the previous leg so that my decision here matters.

RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 7 Choctaw Bingo (ML 9-2); # 8 Lord Revelstoke (ML 30-1); and # 11 Markitoff (ML 5-1)

Another spread leg for me, as I go four deep on the main ticket in this open claimer.  The fault lies with my mistrust of # 4 Takafumi (Brz) (ML 7-2).  Since leaving the barn of Trainer Michael Maker, Takafumi has shown the ability to win at long odds and to disappoint at a short price.  Those with more faith than me in Takafumi can save themselves considerable funds by chopping some of the excess off my main ticket; but, for me, I'm going to use all I can afford here, even at the risk of my play losing some overall value.

RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Got the Bob (ML 15-1); # 8 Holy Cross (ML 15-1); and # 13 Beocca (ML 8-1)

Whenever I see an Non-Winners of Two Lifetime Claiming race, my hand almost instinctively goes straight to the "ALL" button.  But I'm, relatively speaking, going to live on the edge here, going just three deep on my main ticket.  My price horse among the three is # 1 Sprinklehead (ML 12-1); my "what were you thinking when you put this horse in your play" horse.  Sprinklehead is one for eighteen lifetime, and oh-for-nine over this track.  Not what you typically want from one of your "B" Selections.  But Sprinklehead has been competing against much more expensive stock; even (on at least one occasion) racing above his conditions.  So if Sprinklehead can wake up with the class drop, he just might put a very nice finishing touch on this meeting.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FIVE	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	9,	1,13		2,3,8,10,11	7,12
LEG 2	8,		4,9	2,3,7	1,6
LEG 3	7,			9,12	3,6,11
LEG 4	4,		1,3,6		10,12,13
LEG 5	10,	3,	1	6,9	2,4,7,11,12,14

And here, using a variation of the Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 4,8,9 with 7 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,10 $54.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 2,3,8,10,11 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $5.00

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 2,3,7 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $9.00

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 9,12 with 4 with 3,10 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 $3.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 7,12 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 9 with 1,6 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 3,6,11 with 4 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 10,12,13 with 10 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 2,4,7,11,12,14 $3.00

Total: $92.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EDT / 4:55 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/30/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 12 Chantry Flats (Final Odds 6.17) - "B+" Selection

Race 6 - # 1 Cami Cat (2.80) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 12 Atlantic Strike (6.41) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - DEAD HEAT - # 1 Diamond City (4.68) - "A" Selection / # 8 Legal Attack (GB) (12.51) - No Selection

Getting two "A" Selections home, neither being the Post Time Favorite, is a pretty good night.  Toss a "B+" Selection into the mix, also not a Favorite, and you can dream sweeet dreams.  Usually.  But not having that fourth winner in the sequence in a prime spot means that I contribute instead of collect.  Make Atlantic Strike a "C+" instead of a "C"; or make Chantry Flats an "A" instead of a "B+" and the story changes.  Of course, make the queen a dude and, well, you know how that story goes.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  12 / 1 / 12 / 1,8  were rewarded with a payout of $780.53 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/30/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.” -  Neil Gaiman

Believe it or not, this is the last Thursday card of this Turfway Park meeting, with the final race day being Saturday, April 1.  Of course, that means that all pools must payout on Saturday, April 1, including the Jackpot Pick Six.  Currently the Pick Six carryover is at approximately $3.6k, as it was scooped Friday to the tune of $111,723.83.  Typically the Pick Six pool at Turfway Park pulls in between $30k-$40k per card; so it's possible that I may be chasing that carryover Saturday.  However, it's also possible that the Late Pick Five Saturday will have an even more attractive carryover.  So we'll see.

But that's enough looking ahead.  Turning back to tonight, we have the usual menu of full and competitive fields that we've become accustomed to in Florence, KY.  So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - OC 40k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 2 California Angel (Morning Line 9-2); # 6 Johnny's Fireball (ML 20-1); and # 9 Nautilus (Brz) (ML 10-1)

For those who note such things, # 3 Be Here (ML 12-1) and # 13 Beaver Hat (ML 20-1) are the only two entrants in this field to be competing with the $40k price tag on their head.

I spent a significant amount of time debating what to do with California Angel, the daughter of California Chrome that would be trying synthetic for the first time while competing against the boys.  I was going back and forth between a runner that was clearly the best closer in the field; but who had a form that was screaming "Needs race!"  Of course, now that California Angel has been scratched, all that deliberation was just time wasted.  Which is a moral of something, I'm sure; though I'm not sure what.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Honeytown (ML 20-1)

Funny how things can change over a (relatively) brief period of time.  In the early weeks of this meeting, I almost certainly would have made a horse similar to # 2 Beautiful Temple (ML 5-2), trained by Jonathan Wong, a main ticket single.  But, for whatever reason, Wong's trainees at Turfway Park have grown cold over the past month or two.  I finally decided to leave Beautiful Temple off the main ticket, slotting her in as a "C+" Selection.  If Beautiful Temple beats me, she beats me; and I'll just be happy for Jonathan Wong.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 4 Mean Sue (ML 8-1) and # 11 Chi Town Heat (ML 15-1)

This leg would have been a lot easier if I knew for certain how # 13 Send for Me (ML 5-2) was going to handle the synthetic.  Send for Me had a nice work over the Gulfstream Park all-weather track earlier this month; and Send for Me was sired by Into Mischief.  Both of those things speak well to how Send for Me will handle the Turfway Park track surface.  But, I leaned on being safe rather than sorry; so while Send for Me is my "A" Selection, I also included # 8 Hideki (ML 4-1) on the main ticket; just in case.

RACE 8 - OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 5 Ready Soul (ML 4-1); # 13 Bullbriar (ML 6-1); and # 14 Towing (ML 3-1)

I'm reasonably confident that I got this leg right, finding the right blend of coverage and value.  That is, I'm reasonably confident that I have the correct three runners on my main ticket.  Do I have them in the correct order?  That, I'm not so confident about.  But we'll see.

Alright; here are all my Selections in colorful chart form:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	11,	12,	3,7,14	4,8	10,13
LEG 2	1,		6	2	3,11
LEG 3	13,		8	5,7,9,14	1,2,12
LEG 4	1,	4,	9	2	3

And, with a tip of the cap to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 1 with 13 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 13 with 1,4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7,11,12,14 with 1,6 with 8,13 with 1,4,9 $30.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 1 with 13 with 1,4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 2 with 13 with 1,4 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 5,7,9,14 with 1,4 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 13 with 2 $1.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 10,13 with 1 with 13 with 1 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 3,11 with 13 with 1 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1 with 1,2,12 with 1 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1 with 13 with 3 $0.50

Total: $52.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/25/23 Bayou Bluegrass Five - Results

FG Race 9 - The New Orleans Classic - # 3 West Will Power (Final Odds 2.60) - "C+" Selection

TP Race 11 - The Bourbonette Oaks - # 5 Botanical (1.03*) - "A" Selection

FG Race 11 - The Fair Grounds Oaks - # 1 Southlawn (7.70) - "C" Selection

TP Race 12 - The Jeff Ruby Steaks - # 10 Two Phil's (2.82) - "B" Selection

FG Race 12 - The Louisiana Derby - # 6 Kingsbarns (4.50) - "C+" Selection

In retrospect, it's possible that the decision to make # 5 Rattle N Roll (11.50) a single in the New Orleans Classic may have been influenced a bit more by greed than analysis.  After all, getting odds greater than 10-1 on a Grade 1 winner is a temptation that is difficult to resist; especially when you're convinced that the odds-on Favorite is vulnerable; a conviction which proved correct, as # 2 Art Collector (0.80*) was a well beaten second, taking the Place more than four lengths in back of the winner.  Still, perhaps a place should have been found for West Will Power on the main ticket.

My belief that those with the budget to do so would do well to go "ALL" in the Fair Grounds Oaks was justified when Southlawn garnered the victory in a field of five where all but one had lower odds than she.  Still, even if I could go back in time and include West Will Power on the main ticket in the opening leg, and buy the third leg of the sequence, I'm not all that confident that I would have foreseen the lightly raced Kingsbarns walking the dog on the front end (24.71 / 49.60) to easily win the Louisiana Derby.  So I'm going to mark this sequence down as one that just wasn't meant to be.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  3 / 5 / 1 / 10 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $1,777.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/25/23 Bayou Bluegrass Five - Preview

"I tell the kids, somebody’s gotta win, somebody’s gotta lose.  Just don’t fight about it.  Just try to get better." - Yogi Berra

Saturday brings us a multi-track promotional wager, with two CDI properties, Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, joining forces with a Pick Five featuring a pair of Kentucky Derby preps.  So let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Bayou Bluegrass 5 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park.

LEG 1 - Race 9 @ FG - The New Orleans Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

Scratch # 4 Trafalgar (ML 30-1)

I'm fading the Morning Line Favorite in this contest, # 2 Art Collector (Morning Line 8-5), keeping him off my main ticket and slotting him in as a C+ Selection.  I'm also fading the second choice on the Morning Line, # 3 West Will Power (ML 2-1), letting him join Art Collector in the C+ ranks.

Look, Art Collector and West Will Power are the two top horses in this field; and if you're going by pure probability, the winner of this race being either Art Collector or West Will Power is certainly well above 50%, most likely above 75%.  But I would guess that at least 95% of the tickets in this pool will have either Art Collector or West Will Power on it.  Getting home a winner in this leg that is neither Art Collector nor West Will Power would be huge.  Unlikely, but huge.

So, heeding to the motto, "Go big or go home" I'm going to single here, with a horse that is neither Art Collector nor West Will Power.  Instead, my big ticket single in this opening leg is # 5 Rattle N Roll (ML 10-1).  At his best, I believe that Rattle N Roll can compete with the top two contenders here.  I also think Rattle N Roll will be helped by the pace shape in this contest.  Finally, I think, based off his works over this track earlier this month, that Rattle N Roll is ready to, well, roll.

So I'm swinging for the fences in my first at bat of the day, with Rattle N Roll being my big ticket single in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic.

LEG 2 - Race 11 @ TP - (F) The Bourbonette Oaks $300k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 3 Olympic Prank (ML 20-1)

No real surprises here as I go three deep with the expectation that this event will be formful.  The only real question I had here was regarding # 2 Bolivie (Ire) (ML 5-1), making her North American debut.  While I have Bolivie on my main ticket (as a B Selection), I may later regret not slotting her higher on the chart.  We'll see.

LEG 3 - Race 11 @ FG - (F) The Fair Grounds Oaks (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

Unfortunately, this event could only draw a field of five.  Those with a sizeable bankroll will no doubt simply buy this race.  As for me, I'm going to single here; but not with the Morning Line Favorite, # 3 Pretty Mischievous (ML 8-5).  Instead, I'm going with the runner who took the Show behind Pretty Mischievous last time out in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra, # 5 Hoosier Philly (ML 2-1).  If Hoosier Philly returns to her 2022 form than there's little doubt in my mind that she can defeat this field.

LEG 4 - Race 12 @ TP - The Jeff Ruby Steaks (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 2 Scoobie Quando (ML 15-1) and # 3 Event Detail (ML 15-1)

This was my spread leg, as I'm using a half dozen runners in this contest on my main ticket.  The quandary is that the two lowest prices on the Morning Line, # 1 Major Dude (ML 5-2) and # 10 Two Phil's (ML 7-2) will both be competing on a synthetic surface for the first time in their respective careers.  Because of that, I thought it best to go wide in this leg.

LEG 5 - Race 12 @ FG - The Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

No surprise in my top choice, as # 2 Instant Coffee (ML 2-1) is my "A" Selection here.  Perhaps some surprise that I didn't single Instant Coffee in this leg.  Almost certainly some raised eyebrows (at least) regarding the two runners that I have joining Instant Coffee on my main ticket: # 11 Jace's Road (ML 12-1) and # 9 Tapit's Conquest (10-1).

Jace's Road's form looks much better after you toss the two off-track races.  Tapit's Conquest might benefit by covering the additional real estate.  And having Instant Coffee, Jace's Road, and Tapit's Conquest on my main ticket means that I have all three Brad Cox trainees covered.

OK, that's the analysis.  Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections for each leg:

PICK FIVE	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	5,			2,3	6,7
LEG 2	5,	11,	2	4,9	8
LEG 3	5,			3	1,2,4
LEG 4	8,	11,	1,4,7,10		5,12
LEG 5	2,	11,	9	4,6	3,5

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 5 with 2,5,11 with 5 with 1,4,7,8,10,11 with 2,9,11 $27.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 2,3 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $8.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 4,9 with 5 with 8,11 with 2,11 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 3 with 8,11 with 2,11 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5,11 with 5 with 8,11 with 4,6 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 6,7 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 8 with 5 with 8 with 2 $0.50

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 1,2,4 with 8 with 2 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 5,12 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 5 with 5 with 5 with 8 with 3,5 $1.00

Total: $61.00

Post Time for Race 9 @ FG is 5:04 EDT / 2:04 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/23/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 11 Talk Radio (Final Odds 4.00) - "A" Selection

Race 6 - # 11 Sweets Maker (3.88) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 5 Bakers Bay (1.85) - "B+" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Roan for the Rose (1.10*) - "B" Selection & "A" Selection*

* - # 8 Bodieful was a late scratch from Race 8, so I received Roan for the Rose, the Post Time Favorite, in her place.

Because of the late scratch of Bodieful in the nightcap, I can't claim that everything came together just as I had drawn it up.  Regardless, the important thing is that it came together.  Which is something that hadn't happened in too long a time frame.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 3 Jahez (23.03) - $1280.73 Finish: 8th

# 7 Hillbilly Logic (5.50) - $345.94 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 11 / 5 / 6 which paid $91.97 for a fifty cent wager.  Well, actually, thanks to penny breakage and rounding, it paid $91.975.  Having Roan for the Rose as a “B” Selection means that my All A Entries with All B Entries ticket collects.  Having Roan for the Rose replace my “A” Selection, Bodieful, who was a late scratch, means that I collect again on my All A Entries with All B Entries ticket, as well as my (one dollar) All A Entries with All B+ Entries ticket.  So I collect that $91.975 four times, for a total of $367.90.  That makes for a profit of $296.90 on my initial $71 investment, or approximate odds of 4.18-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/23/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"Anticipation leads the way to victory, and is the spur to conquest." - Nicolas Chamfort

We're just a couple of days away from Jeff Ruby Steaks Day at Turfway Park, with this upcoming Saturday, March 25, being the biggest day of the meet.  As a programming note, First Race Post Time at Turfway Park on Saturday is set for 12:45 EDT / 9:45 PDT; yes, that's right, Saturday's is an afternoon card.  Also, don't overlook the cross-track all-stake multi-race wager Saturday!  Turfway Park is teaming up with Louisiana Fair Grounds to bring us the “Bayou Bluegrass 5” which will have a 50-cent minimum and a 15% takeout.  So be sure to be ready Saturday for that wager.

Okay; that's enough about Saturday.  Now it's time to live for today, as I attempt to build my bankroll for the upcoming weekend.  So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) Alw 5000s - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch #  My Tommy Lee (Morning Line 50-1)

Condition of eligibility for this event is that distaff runners, four years old and upward, had to have been available to be claimed for $5k (or less) since March 10, 2021 in order to enter.  Take note of that date.  Typically, the date is a year or two years ago, plus a day.  So, one would expect the cutoff date for eligibility, that is, the "since" date in the conditions, to be March 22, 2021.

So who benefits from moving the cutoff date back another dozen days?  The answer is # 12 My Dark Secret (ML 6-1), as it was in Race 4 at Turfway Park on March 12, 2021, when My Dark Secret (as near as I can tell) last ran for a $5k Claiming price.  So a little something to consider when handicapping this contest.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 10 Jungle Cat (ML 4-1)

This contest is carded for fillies and mares, three years old and upward.  The Jonathan Wong trained # 8 Autism Community (ML 5-1), making her 2023 debut, is the only three year old in this field.  Despite the handicap of facing older competitors for the first time, I like Autism Community's chances here, and have made her a B+ Selection; the hoped-for 5-1 odds being a significant part of that appraisal.

My A Selection in this contest is the Morning Line Favorite, # 11 Sweets Maker (ML 7-2).  Normally I'm not a fan of placing the ML Favorite in the top Selection spot just to use several others below them.  But I feel it's justified in this leg because of the relatively high odds for the ML Favorite of 7-2.  At lower ML odds, say, for example, 2-1, there's rarely value to be gained by using multiple runners in a leg where the ML Favorite is your top pick.  But the 7-2 ML odds suggests that the lines maker anticipates money being spread among multiple entrants in the pools.  As I agree with that assessment, I have made my Selections follow suit.

RACE 7 - OC 50k B - Six Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 1 Eleven Central (ML 9-2)

Breaking my own rules in this race, as my Selections this leg are clearly anti-value, with the three lowest Morning Line entrants comprising my three main ticket Selections.  My excuse?  I really expect this race to be the most formful of  the sequence, with prices, good prices, getting under the wire first in one or more of the other legs.  So rather than fashion a play around getting the prices in the other legs while also correctly choosing which of the three closely matched runners in this race will emerge victorious, I decided to make this leg my safe space.  It makes the play more costly; but, if the sequence plays out as I believe that it will, the extra cost will be worth it.

RACE 8 - Md $15k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

For those wondering where I'm expecting to find a big price in this sequence, here it is.  My A Selection for this leg is # 8 Bodieful (ML 10-1).  Normally Maidens who have already had ten attempts at graduation, half of which were at today's class level, don't find their way onto my main ticket; let alone the top spot.  And that's before considering that this is a filly taking on the males.

But I think Bodieful took a significant step forward last time out, and could very well improve off that effort.  Specifically, Bodieful won the speed battle last time out versus multiple opponents; and while Bodieful didn't have enough left in the tank after that contest to be the pacesetter, Bodieful was able to hold on for the Place; which made Bodieful the only runner in the front seven at the half mile mark to finish in the Superfecta.

I also think that, despite having faced fellow distaff runners in her more recent races, Bodieful's competition has been at least on par with that of the anticipated male contenders in this event.  And the one thing that I am most sure of is that Bodieful will go to Post at a very nice price.

Okay; that's the commentary.  Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	11,	8,	2,12	5	1,3
LEG 2	11,	8,		1,3,7	2,9
LEG 3	8,	5,	3		2,4,6,7
LEG 4	8,		3,6,7		2,10,11,12

And here's how those Selections translate into tickets, using a variation of the Crist method:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 11 with 8 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 8,11 with 8,11 with 5,8 with 8 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,8,11,12 with 8,11 with 3,5,8 with 3,6,7,8 $48.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 5 with 8,11 with 5,8 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8,11 with 1,3,7 with 5,8 with 8 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3 with 11 with 8 with 8 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2,9 with 8 with 8 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 11 with 2,4,6,7 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 11 with 8 with 2,10,11,12 $2.00

Total: $71.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EDT / 4:55 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/17/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Eliza's Honor (Final Odds 8.19) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - The WEBN Frog - # 1 Opening Buzz (1.77*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 7 Risata (5.64) - "B+" Selection

Race 9 - # 9 Silent Steve (16.05) - No Selection

In the preview I wrote that I thought the contests in this sequence were highly competitive; so there's very little that I can say here that wouldn't be redundant.  None of the above winners were what I would call a surprise; even Silent Steve in the nightcap merited some consideration based upon the way he graduated at Arlington Park before going on the shelf.  But my opinion was that there were better options than Silent Steve Friday in Race 9; an opinion which, unfortunately, was not supported by subsequent events.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 1 / 7 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $1,968.41 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/17/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“You should never be ashamed to admit you have been wrong.  It only proves you are wiser today than yesterday.” - Jonathon Swift

Happy Saint Patrick's Day one and all!  Here's hoping that your day has been brightened by a song in your heart and warmed by the smiles of the people you love.  And with that, let's see if we can be touched by a bit of Irish luck, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 6 - Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 12 Zoomster (Morning Line 7-2)

# 8 Cupid's Number (ML 9-2) showed some good early speed in his debut at Hawthorne last time out.  That debut had been preceded by a light's out four furlong work over this main track in early February.  Cupid's Number is almost certainly going to be the one leading the field at least through the opening half; probably even through the first six furlongs.  The only question is if Cupid's Number can keep it going, even at this low level, for the entire mile.

For that reason, I didn't make Cupid's Number a main ticket single.  Perhaps an error on my part; but I though it best to included another runner in this leg.  For that reason # 10 Charlies Medal (ML 4-1) shares a spot with Cupid's Number on the main ticket for this leg.  Charlies Medal has hit the board in the past versus more expensive stock, and Charlies Medal's late running style compliments Cupid's Number's front running preference well.  Indeed, to go off script for just a moment, I'll mention that at least some of my bankroll will find its way onto a Cupid's Number / Charlies Medal Exacta Box.

RACE 7 - (F) The WEBN Frog $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

For those who, like me, didn't know, WEBN is Cincinnati's Rock Station, and the home of the KiddChris Show.  Songs that typically can be heard on WEBN include "I Write Sins Not Tragedies" - Panic! At the Disco; "Animal I Have Become" - Three Days Grace; "Sad But True" - Metallica; "Man in the Box" - Alice in Chains; "In Bloom" - Nirvana; and "Even Flow" - Pearl Jam.  So if that's your jam be sure to check out WEBN - Cincinnati's Rock Station!

Turning back to the ponies, I figure this contest to be quite competitive, primarily because of Trainer Jonathan Wong.  Back in the early days of this meet Wong was winning most everything that wasn't nailed down, and he was spending more time in the winner's circle than pretty much every trainer not named Wesley Ward.  But Wong's runners have turned cold of late; otherwise I would unhesitating make # 1 Opening Buzz (ML 5-2), winner of the $125k Wishing Well back in January, a single on my main ticket.  But Opening Buzz failed miserably as the Post Time Favorite in the $25k Wintergreen last time out; and, with that in mind, I though it best to spread in this leg.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $7.5k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 13 Auction Fever (ML 15-1)

Is it just my imagination, or has Turfway Park carded a bunch of these of late?  If so, I have to presume that their are a goodly number of runners on the grounds that fit this condition well.  Indeed, it seems like in this contest alone there are a goodly number of runners that must be considered contenders at this class level.

I personally went six deep in this leg on my main ticket; but I can legitimately see others going deeper.  Conversely, I don't have any real problem with the Morning Line Favorite, # 1 Believing (ML 5-2).  The problem I have with Believing is that I don't really see anything about her that stands out from several others in this field.  But if you want to roll the dice and take a stand with only one or two entrants in this leg, God bless you.  But for me, I decided to spare myself some unnecessary agita and spread in this contest and just hope to survive.

RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

Scratch # 3 Rewire (ML 3-1) and # 14 Noble Jon (ML 8-1)

I was tempted to single the Jonathan Wong trained # 7 Fort Defiance (ML 5-2).  But as mentioned above, Wong's trainees have been running cold of late.  In addition, the scratches of Rewire and Noble Jon mean that Lemonadeatthelatch (ML 15-1) stands an excellent chance of getting loose on the lead.  And loose on the lead at 15-1 is just too good a price to let go by.  Which is why I went Double A in this leg.

Okay; that's the commentary.  Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	8,		10	6,9	2,11,13
LEG 2	2,		1,3,4	6,	5,7
LEG 3	8,	1,3,7,	2,4	9,11,12	5,6,10
LEG 4	7,10			6,8	1,5,11,12,13

And using a variation of the Crist method to translate my Selections into tickets, I get the following:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 7,10 $2.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 7,10 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 8,10 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,7,8 with 7,10 $48.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 6,9 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 7,10 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 6 with 1,3,7,8 with 7,10 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 9,11,12 with 7,10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 6,8 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,11,13 with 2 with 8 with 7,10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 5,7 with 8 with 7,10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 5,6,10 with 7,10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 1,5,11,12,13 $2.50

Total: $87.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 8:25 EDT / 5:25 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo