“Ends are not bad things, they just mean that something else is about to begin. And there are many things that don't really end, anyway, they just begin again in a new way. Ends are not bad and many ends aren't really an ending; some things are never-ending.” - C Joybell C
And so we arrive at the final day of the thoroughbred meeting in Florence, KY. Being the final day means, of course, that everything must go; including the Jackpot Pick Six pool, which has a carryover entering Saturday of $28,580. But if you looked at the title of this post, you already know that I'll be passing on the Pick Six pool in favor of The Late Pick Five, which has its own carryover of $66,517, thanks to Friday's Early Pick Five going unhit. So with that as intro let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k - Six and one Half Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 4 Heart Spin (Morning Line 7-2); # 5 Mo Betty (ML 8-1); # 6 It Factor (ML 6-1); and # 14 Shemademeblush (ML 7-2)
To me, this race is a contest between the first time starters and the experienced runners. In my humble opinion, if, after removing the scratches, you divide the runners into those two categories, neither grouping has a standout among them. So this, in my mind, becomes a spread leg, with the width of the spread dependent on the size of your bankroll (as well as how deep you plan on spreading in subsequent legs).
For me, I sided with the experienced runners, giving preference to those who have already had one or more races on my main ticket. The lone exception was # 1 Red Hot Jeanie (ML 12-1). I found Red Hot Jeanie's work of March 21 over this track too good to ignore; especially at the Morning Line price. I therefore slotted Red Hot Jeanie in as a "B+" Selection.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six and one Half Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 5 Stirdatpot (ML 4-1)
In this leg I decided to fade the experienced entrants. I'm only going three deep here, and all three are debut runners: # 4 Run for Reagan (ML 10-1); # 8 Midnight Channel (ML 8-1); and # 9 Man With the Moves (ML 12-1). Quite frankly, my concern here is not if one of the experienced runners should suddenly take a big step forward; but rather that none of the first time trio that I've placed on my main ticket will fire. In my opinion, talent is definitely on the side of the debut starters; now it's just a matter of who will run to their best ability. If you're unsure, then by all means sprinkle in the more favored in the field as your bankroll allows. But for me, as I have my trio, and here's where I make my stand.
RACE 7 - (F) The Serena's Song $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 1 Bulsara (ML 5-1) and # 4 Safeen (ML 15-1)
Now we arrive at the final Listed Stakes of the meeting, an event carded for three year old fillies. I spent a long, long time studying this race, looking for any excuse to not use the Wesley Ward trained # 7 Sunday Shoes (ML 7-2) as a big ticket single. It was a question of whether or not to include one or both of # 9 Jill Jitterbug (ML 10-1) and # 12 B G Warrior (ML 6-1). Ultimately I decided that Ward's filly is simply too good to fade, at least with any significant dollar amount, as would be the case by doubling or trebling the cost of my main ticket. So it's Sunday Shoes solo in this leg, with my main concern being that I make it out of the previous leg so that my decision here matters.
RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 7 Choctaw Bingo (ML 9-2); # 8 Lord Revelstoke (ML 30-1); and # 11 Markitoff (ML 5-1)
Another spread leg for me, as I go four deep on the main ticket in this open claimer. The fault lies with my mistrust of # 4 Takafumi (Brz) (ML 7-2). Since leaving the barn of Trainer Michael Maker, Takafumi has shown the ability to win at long odds and to disappoint at a short price. Those with more faith than me in Takafumi can save themselves considerable funds by chopping some of the excess off my main ticket; but, for me, I'm going to use all I can afford here, even at the risk of my play losing some overall value.
RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 5 Got the Bob (ML 15-1); # 8 Holy Cross (ML 15-1); and # 13 Beocca (ML 8-1)
Whenever I see an Non-Winners of Two Lifetime Claiming race, my hand almost instinctively goes straight to the "ALL" button. But I'm, relatively speaking, going to live on the edge here, going just three deep on my main ticket. My price horse among the three is # 1 Sprinklehead (ML 12-1); my "what were you thinking when you put this horse in your play" horse. Sprinklehead is one for eighteen lifetime, and oh-for-nine over this track. Not what you typically want from one of your "B" Selections. But Sprinklehead has been competing against much more expensive stock; even (on at least one occasion) racing above his conditions. So if Sprinklehead can wake up with the class drop, he just might put a very nice finishing touch on this meeting.
Okay; that's the analysis. Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:
And here, using a variation of the Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 4,8,9 with 7 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,10 $54.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P5: 2,3,8,10,11 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $5.00
$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 2,3,7 with 7 with 4 with 3,10 $9.00
$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 9,12 with 4 with 3,10 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 1,9,13 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 7,12 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 9 with 1,6 with 7 with 4 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 3,6,11 with 4 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 10,12,13 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P5: 9 with 8 with 7 with 4 with 2,4,7,11,12,14 $3.00
Total: $92.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EDT / 4:55 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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