7/18/20 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 11 - The United Nations - # 5 Aquaphobia (Final Odds 10.70) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - The Haskell - # 2 Authentic (0.60*) - "B" Selection
Race 13 - The Wolf Hill - # 6 Archidust (2.70) - "A" Selection
Race 14 - The Molly Pitcher - # 11 Horologist (3.70) - "B" Selection

Authentic easing up just a bit too soon in the Haskell, allowing # 7 Ny Traffic (5.70) to close to within a nose of the winner at the wire, injected a lot more drama into Saturday's proceedings than I personally would have preferred.  But the final results are all that matter to the bottom line; and, when all was said and done, it was nice to find myself Saturday collecting instead of contributing.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 She’s a Julie (2.60) - $176.05 Finish: 7th
# 2 Royal Flag (1.50*) - $141.30 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Vault (3.30) - $228.20 Finish: 6th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 2 / 6 / 11  which paid $289.70 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $197.70 on my initial $92 investment; or approximate odds of 2.15-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/18/20 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"If you're not hopeful and optimistic, then you just give up. You have to take the long hard look and just believe that if you're consistent, you will succeed." - John Lewis

With the cancellation of racing at Del Mar this weekend due to the outbreak of Covid-19 among their jockey colony, I decided to shift coasts Saturday and attempt to tackle the Final Four on the Oceanport, NJ program on the biggest day of the Monmouth Park meet.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Shore's Greatest Stretch.

RACE 11 - The United Nations (Grade 1) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Current (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Arklow (ML 5-2)
# 3 Muggsamatic (ML 8-1)
# 5 Aquaphobia (ML 9-2)
# 9 Paret (Aus) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Standard Deviation (ML 7-2)
# 4 Eve's Medal (ML 30-1)
# 7 O Dionysus (ML 20-1)
# 8 Corelli (ML 10-1)

Current typically improves when going second off the layoff; at least on those few occasions where Current has been healthy enough to make a second start off a layoff.  Arklow is the class of the field, and will almost certainly be the one running best late.

Muggsamatic and Aquaphobia, both trained by Mike Maker, are both certainly capable of winning against this level of competition.  Paret (Aus) appears to be a strong candidate to make this Grade 1 a replay of his victory last time out in the Tiller at Belmont Park, where Paret made every post a winning one.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Haskell (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Dr Post (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Authentic (ML 4-5)

C's

# 3 Jesus' Team (ML 15-1)
# 4 Ancient Warrior (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fame to Famous (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lebda (ML 20-1)
# 7 Ny Traffic (ML 7-2)

Maybe the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Ancient Warrior freaks in his first try around two turns.  Maybe the Saffie Joseph Jr trained Ny Traffic finally takes that next step forward and proves himself to be a viable Kentucky Derby contender.  Maybe.  But probably not.

Anyway, the way I see this contest is the Bob Baffert trained Authentic early and Todd Pletcher trained Dr Post late.  I flipped flopped several times this morning as to which of those two should be my top pick; but I think I've got it right with Dr Post having a slight edge.

RACE 13 - The Wolf Hill $75k - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Archidust (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Smart Remark (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dubini (ML 9-2)
# 9 Shekky Shebaz (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Nice Tune (ML 30-1)
# 3 Snowday (Fr) (ML 30-1)
# 7 Coop Tries Harder (ML 10-1)
# 8 Singanothersong (ML 30-1)
# 10 Regally Irish (ML 20-1)
# 11 American Sailor (ML 5-1)
# 12 Three Rules (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 2 Lonhtwist (ML 8-1) along with the Also Eligible, # 13 The Critical Way (ML 12-1)

Archidust and Shekky Shebaz are leaving the barns of trainers Jorge Navarro and Jason Servis, respectively; so your guess is as good as mine as to how well they'll run in the hands of reputable horsemen.  I using them on the presumption that they'll run close to form; but we'll just have to watch and see.

Smart Remark is getting some significant, if somewhat hidden, class relief here.  Dubini could move up with a better trip.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 14 - (F) The Molly Pitcher (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 She's a Julie (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Royal Flag (ML 3-1)
# 5 Vault (ML 9-2)
#11 Horologist (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Wrong Color (ML 30-1)
# 6 Queen Nekia (ML 12-1)
# 7 Our Super Freak (ML 12-1)
# 8 Cloud Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Sweet Sami D (ML 15-1)
# 10 Flat Awesome Jenny (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Gotham Gala (ML 12-1)

She's a Julie is classiest here, and a replication of her victory last time out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps would almost certainly get She's a Julie back into the winner's circle today.  Royal Flag is stepping up in class, but appears capable of contending at this level.

Vault could be the one running best late.  Horologist is the horse for the course, undefeated as she is in her four career starts over this main track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 6 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,6,9 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,9 with 1,2,5,11 $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4,7,8 with 1 with 6 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 1,3,7,8,10,11,12 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 6 with 4,6,7,8,9,10 $3.00

Total: $92.00

Post Time for Race 11 is 5:10 EDT / 2:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/18/14 Monmouth Park Early Pick Four - Results

Race 3 - # 1 Groovy Dancer (Final Odds 1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 4 Dodging (2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Gypsy Baron (5.80) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 4 Happy Easter (5.20) - No Selection

For the second time in less than a week we have lost a Pick Four in the final leg when the odds-on favorite on our ticket lost a photo finish.  Today it was # 5 Killington (0.70*) who couldn't hold on at the wire and lost the head bob.  I can't tell you for certain what the Will Pay would have been had Killington held on to win, as it was given as $177.05 for fifty cents prior to the gate scratch of # 3 Elissa Town; which meant that everyone who was alive to Elissa Town in the last leg was given Killington in her place.  Of course, if no one was alive to Elissa Town in the Pick Four, then the $177.05 would have remained the payout. 

For the record, we were also alive to # 6 My Princess Diana (2.60) in the final leg; had she won the Pick Four would have paid $487.40 for fifty cents.  But that's just what might have been.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Early Pick Four sequence of  1 / 4 / 3 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $1,035.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/18/14 Monmouth Park Early Pick Four - Preview

It's Opening Day at Saratoga; Del Mar has a six figure Pick Six carryover; but for me, I'm going after the Pick Four carryover at Monmouth Park today, because those are just too rare to let one go by.  So let's get to it:

RACE 3 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Groovy Dancer (Morning Line 6-1)
# 3 Daddy's Boo (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Knoxy (Morning Line 3-2)

C’s

# 2 Shewreckstheplace (ML 4-1)

# 5 Circle of Rossetti (ML 3-1) has been scratched.

Quite frankly, this contest strikes me as a wide open affair; not because I see the field as especially contentious, but because, even for this level of maidens, there seems to be a dearth of desire to win.

Groovy Dancer could be the inside speed on the rail here; but she'll be losing the blinkers today, which may stunt her early speed.  Groovy Dancer also faded against state-bred competition her last time out, and her works after that race suggest that she may not be in top shape.

Daddy's Boo is a first time starter.  Having a horse make its debut in a claiming event could be a red flag, but since she's a home bred from a sire with a $5k fee, she could be well meant in this spot; especially since there isn't a lot of competition among the experienced runners.  Also note the one mile work just four days ago; it's safe to presume that Daddy's Boo is in shape.  However, it's also worth noting that she has a full brother (He's Precocious) who's a year older than her and hasn't yet made it to the starting gate; though he did work three furlongs at Fairplex this past Monday.

Knoxy appears to be the most talented in the field, and she has finished in the money twice at this level.  But the only time that she's ever had the lead in her career was when competing against turf horses in a race that was taken off the grass; so, even at this level, it's hard to generate a lot of confidence in her direction.

Shewreckstheplace is oh-for-twenty-seven, and I don't know of any handicapper that shows a profitable ROI playing the "The twenty-eighth time's the charm" angle.  On the other hand, she's only had three prior tries on a fast dirt track, and all of those were at Aqueduct; so maybe she'll improve if her connections will just keep her off the grass.

RACE 4 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Class Bopper (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sky Masterson (ML 3-1)
# 4 Dodging (ML 7-2)
# 7 Folk Singer (ML 5-2)

C's

None

The "B" conditions for the event are that it's restricted to horses which have not won a race since October 18, 2013 OR horses which have not won four races (excluding races where the horse was entered for $5k or less).  I'm going to presume that jump races (or hurdles, if you prefer) are also excluded, else otherwise Class Bopper, who appears to be a class standout here, would not qualify.

Folk Singer and Sky Masterson exit the same contest earlier this month where they took the Place and the Show, respectively.  While the $12.5k price tag in that event was lower than today's selling price, that race was unrestricted, so I feel that this is at worst a lateral move for these two on the class ladder.

Dodging comes back from an extended vacation, having last raced eight months ago; however, Trainer Hugh McMahon wins his fair share (approximately 18%) with such.  Also note the timing of Dodging's last win, which came on October 9, 2013; just a little more than a week before the deadline.

RACE 5 - OC 12k/SAL 6k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Indefinable Humor (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 3 Gypsy Baron (ML 5-1)

# 8 Small Giant (ML 5-1)

Indefinable Humor has been in the Exacta in all four of his prior races on this main track.  Indefinable Humor defeated open claimers his last time out, and now makes his first start for Trainer Hugh McMahon.

Gypsy Barron gets some class relief after showing early speed against more expensive stock.  I would not be surprised to see him change barns after this race is over.  Small Giant has been running with the pace setters in his most recent races; but his past performances show an ability to win from off the pace, an ability that could prove to be quite useful here.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $35k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Killington (ML 8-5)

# 6 My Princess Diana (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 8 When We Act (ML 10-1)

Killington drops in for a tag for the first time in her career after finishing in the money in three of her five career starts against non-claiming maidens.  My Princess Diana has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures throughout her career, and was within two lengths of the winner at this class level her last time out.  When We Act took the Show at this level down at Gulfstream Park back in February.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 5,6 $24.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 5,6 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 3,8 with 5,6 $24.00

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 8 $6.00

Total: $58.00

Post Time for Race 3 is 1:50 EDT / 10:50 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/6/14 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - # 3 Purely Boy (Final Odds 5.00) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Salvator Mile - # 7 Itsmyluckyday - (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 5 Mr. Viber (6.90) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - The United Nations - # 5 Main Sequence (8.00) - "C" Selection

Certainly not one of our better days, as the only "A" Selection we get home is a Post Time Favorite that we didn't single.  On the positive side, we did peg # 4 Picozza (1.20*) as a vulnerable Favorite in Race 9; and, as we did yesterday, we did have all the winners among our selections.  But the bottom line is the bottom line, and ours went in the wrong direction today.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 7 / 5 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $830.10 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/6/14 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Preview

On the final day of this beautiful Fourth of July weekend we turn now from west to east, and try our hand at Monmouth Park on United Nations Day.  Since Late Pick Fours come early on the East Coast analysis will be much more sparse than usual; hopefully, though, the selections will not be lacking.

RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Strategic Keeper (Morning Line 9-2)
# 4 Picozza (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mythical Man (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Purely Boy (ML 6-1)
# 5 Best Play (ML 4-1)
# 6 Kwacha (ML 6-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)

Picozza is the Morning Line Favorite, and is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by Joe Bravo; for that reason alone he must be respected.  But it's telling that Picozza's best effort (as measured by his Beyer Speed Figures) came in his one career race that was off the turf.  Perhaps even more telling is the fact that the class drop from Graded Stakes to Allowance company produced no noticeable improvement in either Beyer or placing.  Again, the connections must be respected, which is why I have Picozza as an "A" rather than a "C"; but in my opinion this race is in fact very wide open.

RACE 10 - The Salvator Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Dawly (ML 6-1)

# 7 Itsmyluckyday (ML 3-1)

# 10 Valid (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 4 Raging Daoust (ML 30-1)

Dawly enters this contest with the best last out Beyer, a figure that is not greatly above the others that he has earned this year.  Itsmyluckyday is the class standout here and comes into this event having won his last two, including a stakes win over this main track.  Valid may get hung wide in the turn due to the Post Position draw; but he has shown in the past the ability to win when not on the lead.  Raging Daoust, who paid $69 when he won this contest last year, in on the ticket because sometimes lighting does strike twice in the same place.

RACE 11 - OC 20k/N1X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Ain't Got Time (ML 4-1)

# 6 On the Loose Again (ML 5-1)

C’s

# 5 Mr. Viber (ML 10-1)

# 7 Untamed (ML 12-1)

# 8 Inmyfathersimage (ML 7-2)

# 11 Jazz Maxx (ML 9-2)

Ain't Got Time tries winners (but not older horses) for the first time; but he's worked well since graduating, and this looks to be about as soft a spot as you can land from an MSW win without being put up for sale.  If On the Loose Again returns to the form that he showed in his routes last Fall, then he could be an easy winner here.  

RACE 12 - The United Nations (Grade 1) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Twilight Eclipse (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 2 Ghurair (ML 3-1)

# 5 Main Sequence (ML 8-1)

# 7 Kaigun (ML 5-1)

Twilight Eclipse is a Graded Stakes winner at today's distance, having taken the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida earlier this year.  If Twilight Eclipse is allowed to get loose on the front end, then this one could be over well before they hit the wire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 3 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 3 $12.00

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 4 with 2,6 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 5,7,8,11 with 3 $18.00

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 2,5,7 $27.00

Total: $78.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 4:41 EDT / 1:41 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo