"If you're not hopeful and optimistic, then you just give up. You have to take the long hard look and just believe that if you're consistent, you will succeed." - John Lewis
With the cancellation of racing at Del Mar this weekend due to the outbreak of Covid-19 among their jockey colony, I decided to shift coasts Saturday and attempt to tackle the Final Four on the Oceanport, NJ program on the biggest day of the Monmouth Park meet. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Shore's Greatest Stretch.
RACE 11 - The United Nations (Grade 1) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Current (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Arklow (ML 5-2)
# 3 Muggsamatic (ML 8-1)
# 5 Aquaphobia (ML 9-2)
# 9 Paret (Aus) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Standard Deviation (ML 7-2)
# 4 Eve's Medal (ML 30-1)
# 7 O Dionysus (ML 20-1)
# 8 Corelli (ML 10-1)
Current typically improves when going second off the layoff; at least on those few occasions where Current has been healthy enough to make a second start off a layoff. Arklow is the class of the field, and will almost certainly be the one running best late.
Muggsamatic and Aquaphobia, both trained by Mike Maker, are both certainly capable of winning against this level of competition. Paret (Aus) appears to be a strong candidate to make this Grade 1 a replay of his victory last time out in the Tiller at Belmont Park, where Paret made every post a winning one. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - The Haskell (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dr Post (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Authentic (ML 4-5)
C's
# 3 Jesus' Team (ML 15-1)
# 4 Ancient Warrior (ML 20-1)
# 5 Fame to Famous (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lebda (ML 20-1)
# 7 Ny Traffic (ML 7-2)
Maybe the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Ancient Warrior freaks in his first try around two turns. Maybe the Saffie Joseph Jr trained Ny Traffic finally takes that next step forward and proves himself to be a viable Kentucky Derby contender. Maybe. But probably not.
Anyway, the way I see this contest is the Bob Baffert trained Authentic early and Todd Pletcher trained Dr Post late. I flipped flopped several times this morning as to which of those two should be my top pick; but I think I've got it right with Dr Post having a slight edge.
RACE 13 - The Wolf Hill $75k - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Archidust (ML 7-2)
B's
# 4 Smart Remark (ML 8-1)
# 5 Dubini (ML 9-2)
# 9 Shekky Shebaz (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Nice Tune (ML 30-1)
# 3 Snowday (Fr) (ML 30-1)
# 7 Coop Tries Harder (ML 10-1)
# 8 Singanothersong (ML 30-1)
# 10 Regally Irish (ML 20-1)
# 11 American Sailor (ML 5-1)
# 12 Three Rules (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Lonhtwist (ML 8-1) along with the Also Eligible, # 13 The Critical Way (ML 12-1)
Archidust and Shekky Shebaz are leaving the barns of trainers Jorge Navarro and Jason Servis, respectively; so your guess is as good as mine as to how well they'll run in the hands of reputable horsemen. I using them on the presumption that they'll run close to form; but we'll just have to watch and see.
Smart Remark is getting some significant, if somewhat hidden, class relief here. Dubini could move up with a better trip. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 14 - (F) The Molly Pitcher (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 She's a Julie (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Royal Flag (ML 3-1)
# 5 Vault (ML 9-2)
#11 Horologist (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Wrong Color (ML 30-1)
# 6 Queen Nekia (ML 12-1)
# 7 Our Super Freak (ML 12-1)
# 8 Cloud Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Sweet Sami D (ML 15-1)
# 10 Flat Awesome Jenny (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 3 Gotham Gala (ML 12-1)
She's a Julie is classiest here, and a replication of her victory last time out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps would almost certainly get She's a Julie back into the winner's circle today. Royal Flag is stepping up in class, but appears capable of contending at this level.
Vault could be the one running best late. Horologist is the horse for the course, undefeated as she is in her four career starts over this main track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 6 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5,6,9 with 1,2 with 4,5,6,9 with 1,2,5,11 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,4,7,8 with 1 with 6 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 1,3,7,8,10,11,12 with 1 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 6 with 4,6,7,8,9,10 $3.00
Total: $92.00
Post Time for Race 11 is 5:10 EDT / 2:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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