Saturday, July 11, 2020

7/11/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"The niceties of judging by conformation are almost entirely lost on me. But I yield to no man in my genuine affection and admiration for the horse." - Bing Crosby

It's Opening weekend at Del Mar!  Sing it, Bing!




The Wickerr, a restricted stakes on the turf, is Saturday's featured race.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Mantaray Island (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Rogallo (ML 5-2)
# 8 All I Can Say (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Lucky Patrick (ML 15-1)
# 4 Lil Sydney (ML 8-1)
# 5 Suances Secret (ML 20-1)
# 6 Taco Waco (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 2 Include the Tax (ML 8-1)

Mantaray Island drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, and he should benefit from the class relief.  Mantaray Island also projects to be the speed of the speed in this contest.

Rogallo goes first off the claim for Trainer Andrew Lerner, who tends to do well with such.  All I Can Say has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - [R] The Wickerr $65k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Kiwi's Dream (Aus) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 9 Big Score (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 New Year (ML 20-1)
# 3 Jasikan (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Voodoo Song (ML 4-1)
# 5 Bob and Jackie (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bolo (ML 5-1)
# 7 Souter (GB) (ML 12-1)

# 8 Murad Khan (Fr) (ML 12-1)

This contest is restricted to runners that have not won a Stake (Graded or Listed; but exclude Stakes for State Bred only) at a distance of eight furlongs or more since September 1, 2019 where the winner's share of the purse was $50k or more.

Kiwi's Dream (Aus) took the Place in the Grade 3 San Francisco last time out.  Kiwi's Dream has won from off the pace before; which could prove to be a useful trait Saturday, as Voodoo Song projects to be the early leader.

Big Score has run well in the past over this turf course, and I don't expect Big Score to be compromised by the extended layoff.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) Alw 50000s N3L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Diva in Charge (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Rather Nosy (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Paige Runner (ML 10-1)
# 2 White Velvet (ML 15-1)
# 5 Buyback (ML 6-1)
# 7 Teachers Big Dream (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sabinos Pride (ML 4-1)


Scratch # 4 Kristi's Tiger (ML 6-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for fillies and mares which have not won three races in their career.  For whatever reason, that tidbit of information doesn't seem to ever find its way into the Past Performances.

Diva in Charge defeated classier competition last time out.  Rather Nosy has finished in the Trifecta multiple times while competing higher up the class ladder.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Sweet Devil (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Vegas Palm (ML 12-1)
# 2 Fabiolla (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Dolci (ML 20-1)
# 4 Into Victory (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nurse Goodbody (ML 3-1)
# 6 Resarcio (ML 4-1)
# 7 This Tea (ML 15-1)
# 8 Red Diamond (ML 15-1)

# 10 Bristol Bayou (ML 8-1)
# 11 Surround (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 9 Convincingly (ML 15-1)

Had I so chosen, I'm certain that I could have gotten away with going five or six deep here.  But if the first seventy-five percent of this sequence proves to be as formful as I'm predicting that it will be, then this will be the only contest with a legitimate potential for producing a price.  So it's everybody into the pool, as I go "ALL" in for this leg.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 1 with 3 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,7,8 with 1,9 with 3,6 with ALL $66.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,6 with 1 with 3 with 12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 with 3 with 12 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1 with 1,2,5,7,8 with 12 $2.50

Total: $75.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:07 EDT / 5:07 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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