7/25/20 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” - Will Rogers

Racing returns to Del Mar this weekend, with a Saturday card that features a pair of Graded Stakes.  I'll be taking a look at those two events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Zimba Warrior (Morning Line 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Itsthattime (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Handsome Cat (ML 4-1)
# 3 Hidden Promise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Octopus (ML 8-1)
# 6 Promise Nothing (ML 12-1)
# 8 Final Final (ML 20-1)
# 9 Drippin Sauce (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 5 Agamemnon (ML 15-1) and # 7 Antithetical (ML 10-1)

Zimba Warrior should benefit greatly from the class relief, as well as the return to the main track.  Itsthattime is another that could move up with the class drop.  Itsthattime should also improve with the return to one turn racing.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The San Clemente (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Warren's Showtime (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Laura's Light (ML 3-1)
# 4 Over Attracted (ML 15-1)
# 6 Cheermeister (ML 6-1)
# 7 Little Bird (Ire) (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 She's So Special (ML 5-1)
# 2 Lazy Dazy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Croughavouke (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Guitty (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Applecross (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 8 Mind Out (ML 15-1)

Most of Warren's Showtime's successes have come against Cal-bred company; but Warren's Showtime also has a pair of Listed Stakes victories, suggesting that she can handle the likes of this field.

Laura's Light, winner of Grade 3 Honeymoon last time out, can win from anywhere on the track.  Over Attracted could improve going second off the layoff.

Expect Cheermeister, a two-time Graded Stakes winner at Gulfstream Park, to be forwardly placed early.  The freshening may help Little Bird (Ire) show more today than she did last time out in the China Doll.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The San Diego (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Maximum Security (ML 1-1)

B's

# 6 Midcourt (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Higher Power (ML 7-2)
# 2 Ax Man (ML 8-1)
# 4 Combatant (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 3 Sharp Samurai (ML 12-1)

Maximum Security, previously trained by Jason Servis, is making his first start for Trainer Bob Baffert.  While it's fair to presume that Maximum Security won't be the same horse that he was, it's also fair to presume that Baffert wouldn't be putting Maximum Security in this spot if Baffert didn't think that Maximum Security was up to the task.

Expect Midcourt to be much improved over his last time out, now that the one race blinkers off experiment is done.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Nocherylikemychery (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 2 Nice Ice (ML 7-2)
# 3 Peace Pipe (ML 20-1)
# 8 Sassyserb (ML 8-1)
# 12 Warrior's Moon (ML 8-1)
# 13 Charmingslew (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Oh Pretty Woman (ML 9-2)
# 6 Smiling Rose (ML 10-1)
# 7 Kristi's Tiger (ML 12-1)
# 11 Magnificent Q T (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 Goodtingscominpink (ML 6-1); # 9 Hot On the Trail (ML 15-1); # 10 Harper's Gallop (ML 8-1); and # 14 Ruby Bradley (ML 20-1)

Nocherylikemychery and Warrior's Moon filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Nice Ice could move up with the drop in class.

Peace Pipe graduated last time out in her first start for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well when placing his last out maiden victors.  Sassyserb, also trained by Baltas, could improve with the cutback in real estate.

Charmingslew was a winner at this class level the last time that she competed on the turf.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 9 with 5 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,10 with 3,4,6,7,9 with 5,6 with 2,3,4,8,12,13 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,6,8,9 with 9 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,2,5,10,11 with 5 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 1,2,4 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 9 with 5 with 1,6,7,11 $2.00

Total: $70.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo