Race 11 - The Arkansas Derby (First Division) - # 1 Charlatan (Final Odds 0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap - # 12 By My Standards (4.50) - "C" Selection
Race 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Second Division) - # 5 Nadal (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 14 - # 9 Take Charge d'Oro (18.80) - "C" Selection
There's not much to say regarding the results of my play on Saturday, as I again found myself alive entering the final leg, only to fall short of cashing. So I will instead use this space to congratulate the runners and connections who were victorious, and hope that Trainer Bob Baffert winning with three year olds on the first Saturday in May is a sign that things will soon be back to normal.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 1 Dangerfield (5.40) - $68.10 Finish: 3rd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 12 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $232.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Showing posts with label Oaklawn Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oaklawn Park. Show all posts
Saturday, May 2, 2020
5/2/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Don’t let yesterday take up too much of today.” – Will Rogers
It's the first Saturday in May, and, needless to say, a lot has changed since the last first Saturday in May. A lot. But while it's not what we were expecting, there's no complaints as to what we have; for what we have Saturday is, not one, but two Derbies, as twenty-two entrants caused the good folks in Hot Springs to split their featured contest into two divisions. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 11 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (First Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Charlatan (Morning Line 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 My Friends Beer (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mo Mosa (ML 30-1)
# 4 Gouverneur Morris (ML 9-2)
# 5 Jungle Runner (ML 30-1)
# 8 Anneau d'Or (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Impression (ML 15-1)
# 10 Crypto Cash (ML 20-1)
# 11 Basin (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1) and # 7 Wrecking Crew (ML 20-1)
If you're going to single, it's best to do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way. The only question in my mind with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan is how he'll handle the distance; and I hope that if Charlatan struggles getting all nine furlongs, that he'll at least be so far in front that he'll still be un-catchable. So Charlatan gets the solo spot on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mr Freeze (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Trophy Chaser (ML 12-1)
# 7 Combatant (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tacitus (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Chess Chief (ML 30-1)
# 3 Bravazo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Identifier (ML 20-1)
# 6 Warrior's Charge (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Promise (ML 20-1)
# 10 Captivating Moon (ML 20-1)
# 11 Tax (ML 15-1)
# 12 By My Standards (ML 9-2)
# 13 Night Ops (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 14 Improbable (ML 8-1)
Mr Freeze has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last five Graded Stakes starts, and Mr Freeze appears to be entering this contest in top form for Trainer Dale Romans. Trophy Chaser, winner of the Grade 3 Challenger last time out, fits well here with the contenders.
Combatant, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last time out, has been working well for this event. Tacitus can be expected to improve with the return to the US. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (Second Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nadal (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 King Guillermo (ML 3-1)
# 7 Silver Prospector (ML 10-1)
# 10 Farmington Road (ML 12-1)
# 11 Wells Bayou (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 15-1)
# 3 Storm the Court (ML 6-1)
# 6 Code Runner (ML 50-1)
# 9 Taishan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 2 Saratogian (ML 50-1) and # 8 Fast Enough (ML 12-1)
Insert your favorite tennis pun here, as Nadal, undefeated in three career starts (including two Graded Stakes) looks to be best here. King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby last time out on the front end, might actually be the one running best late; though Farmington Road also appears to be a candidate for that title.
Silver Prospector, winner of the Grade 3 Southwest two starts back, could improve off his last start with a cleaner trip. Wells Bayou, winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and second behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest two starts back, has consistently run well over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 14 - Alw 10000s - Fourteen Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dangerfield (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Carlos Sixes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Wickets Way (ML 8-1)
# 11 The Rouge Diesel (ML 15-1)
# 13 Curlin Grey (ML 10-1)
# 14 River Echo (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stuart Hall (ML 20-1)
# 4 Magic Vow (ML 5-1)
# 6 Whole Lotta Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ghostly Who (ML 12-1)
# 9 Take Charge d'Oro (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wild About You (ML 10-1)
# 12 She Might Tell (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 2 Hard to Impress (ML 50-1)
This is a pretty straight forward Starter Allowance, as far as conditions go, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $10k or less, this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Dangerfield and Carlos Sixes are a pair of last out winners going for trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Karl Broberg, respectively) who tend to do well when going for two in a row. Wickets Way, Show runner behind Dangerfield last time out, could improve with the added distance.
The Rouge Diesel won the running of this event last year, at a very nice price. Curlin Grey seems well bred to run all day. River Echo (GB) is going first off the claim for Trainer Cipriano Contreras, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,7,9 with 4,5,7,10,11 with 1,5,7,11,13,14 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11 with 4 with 5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,5,6,8,10,11,12,13 with 5 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1,3,6,9 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 3,4,6,8,9,10,12 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 11 is 6:29 EDT / 3:29 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
It's the first Saturday in May, and, needless to say, a lot has changed since the last first Saturday in May. A lot. But while it's not what we were expecting, there's no complaints as to what we have; for what we have Saturday is, not one, but two Derbies, as twenty-two entrants caused the good folks in Hot Springs to split their featured contest into two divisions. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 11 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (First Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Charlatan (Morning Line 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 My Friends Beer (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mo Mosa (ML 30-1)
# 4 Gouverneur Morris (ML 9-2)
# 5 Jungle Runner (ML 30-1)
# 8 Anneau d'Or (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Impression (ML 15-1)
# 10 Crypto Cash (ML 20-1)
# 11 Basin (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1) and # 7 Wrecking Crew (ML 20-1)
If you're going to single, it's best to do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way. The only question in my mind with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan is how he'll handle the distance; and I hope that if Charlatan struggles getting all nine furlongs, that he'll at least be so far in front that he'll still be un-catchable. So Charlatan gets the solo spot on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mr Freeze (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Trophy Chaser (ML 12-1)
# 7 Combatant (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tacitus (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Chess Chief (ML 30-1)
# 3 Bravazo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Identifier (ML 20-1)
# 6 Warrior's Charge (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Promise (ML 20-1)
# 10 Captivating Moon (ML 20-1)
# 11 Tax (ML 15-1)
# 12 By My Standards (ML 9-2)
# 13 Night Ops (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 14 Improbable (ML 8-1)
Mr Freeze has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last five Graded Stakes starts, and Mr Freeze appears to be entering this contest in top form for Trainer Dale Romans. Trophy Chaser, winner of the Grade 3 Challenger last time out, fits well here with the contenders.
Combatant, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last time out, has been working well for this event. Tacitus can be expected to improve with the return to the US. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (Second Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nadal (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 King Guillermo (ML 3-1)
# 7 Silver Prospector (ML 10-1)
# 10 Farmington Road (ML 12-1)
# 11 Wells Bayou (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 15-1)
# 3 Storm the Court (ML 6-1)
# 6 Code Runner (ML 50-1)
# 9 Taishan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 2 Saratogian (ML 50-1) and # 8 Fast Enough (ML 12-1)
Insert your favorite tennis pun here, as Nadal, undefeated in three career starts (including two Graded Stakes) looks to be best here. King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby last time out on the front end, might actually be the one running best late; though Farmington Road also appears to be a candidate for that title.
Silver Prospector, winner of the Grade 3 Southwest two starts back, could improve off his last start with a cleaner trip. Wells Bayou, winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and second behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest two starts back, has consistently run well over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 14 - Alw 10000s - Fourteen Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dangerfield (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Carlos Sixes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Wickets Way (ML 8-1)
# 11 The Rouge Diesel (ML 15-1)
# 13 Curlin Grey (ML 10-1)
# 14 River Echo (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stuart Hall (ML 20-1)
# 4 Magic Vow (ML 5-1)
# 6 Whole Lotta Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ghostly Who (ML 12-1)
# 9 Take Charge d'Oro (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wild About You (ML 10-1)
# 12 She Might Tell (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 2 Hard to Impress (ML 50-1)
This is a pretty straight forward Starter Allowance, as far as conditions go, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $10k or less, this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Dangerfield and Carlos Sixes are a pair of last out winners going for trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Karl Broberg, respectively) who tend to do well when going for two in a row. Wickets Way, Show runner behind Dangerfield last time out, could improve with the added distance.
The Rouge Diesel won the running of this event last year, at a very nice price. Curlin Grey seems well bred to run all day. River Echo (GB) is going first off the claim for Trainer Cipriano Contreras, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,7,9 with 4,5,7,10,11 with 1,5,7,11,13,14 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11 with 4 with 5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,5,6,8,10,11,12,13 with 5 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1,3,6,9 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 3,4,6,8,9,10,12 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 11 is 6:29 EDT / 3:29 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, May 1, 2020
5/1/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Arkansas Breeders' Championship - # 11 Man in the Can (Final Odds 4.90) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Gardenia - # 2 Piece of My Heart (8.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Fantasy - # 3 Swiss Skydiver (16.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Spend Spend Spend (2.00*) - "B" Selection
Having won the first three legs of the sequence only to lose the nightcap in each of my previous two publicized attempts at Oaklawn Park's Late Pick Four, I decided to switch things up a bit Friday and connect on the final three contests after failing to have to winner of the curtain jerker on my main ticket. So that makes three tries in a row in which I've connected on three quarters of the sequence; and I'm sure you all already know how much that pays.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 2 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,123.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Gardenia - # 2 Piece of My Heart (8.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Fantasy - # 3 Swiss Skydiver (16.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Spend Spend Spend (2.00*) - "B" Selection
Having won the first three legs of the sequence only to lose the nightcap in each of my previous two publicized attempts at Oaklawn Park's Late Pick Four, I decided to switch things up a bit Friday and connect on the final three contests after failing to have to winner of the curtain jerker on my main ticket. So that makes three tries in a row in which I've connected on three quarters of the sequence; and I'm sure you all already know how much that pays.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 2 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,123.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/1/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“The same boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It’s what you’re made of. Not the circumstances.” - Anonymous
And so we arrive at the closing weekend for the meet at Hot Springs, with Friday's card featuring a trio of stakes, the most prominent being the Grade 3 Fantasy for three year old fillies. I'll be taking a look at all three contests below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - [S] The Arkansas Breeders' Championship $165k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 K J's Nobility (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 10 Glacken's Ghost (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Promising Shoes (ML 5-1)
# 2 Souixper Charger (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hamazing Vision (ML 9-2)
# 5 Prospector Fever (ML 8-1)
# 6 J. E.'s Handmedown (ML 15-1)
# 7 Destiny Way (ML 20-1)
# 8 Heritage Park (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bandit Point (ML 10-1)
# 11 Man in the Can (ML 6-1)
K J's Nobility has won three of his last four contests, including an open length victory last time out in the $100k Nodouble Breeders' Stakes (which, like today's contest, was restricted to state bred entrants only). Glacken's Ghost, soundly defeated by K J's Nobility last time out, could turn the tables on that rival with the added distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gardenia $80k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gingham (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Piece of My Heart (ML 8-1)
# 5 Daphne Moon (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Flag (ML 9-2)
# 10 Antoinette (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Turnstone (ML 30-1)
# 8 Comical (ML 15-1)
# 11 His Glory (ML 8-1)
# 12 Shanghai Keely (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Kat Taps (ML 30-1); # 6 Quick Decision (ML 12-1); # 9 Ice Princess (ML 10-1); # 13 Kiss the Girl (ML 30-1); and # 14 Punk Rock (ML 30-1)
Gingham took the Place behind Venetian Harbor last time out in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag filled out the Exacta over this main track against Optional Claiming company (OC 80k N2L) last time out, and both Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag have been progressing well so far in their respective three year old campaigns.
Daphne Moon could improve going second off the layoff. Antoinette took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Fantasy (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Venetian Harbor (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Swiss Skydiver (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lake Avenue (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harvey's Little Goil (ML 12-1)
# 10 British Idiom (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Ice Princess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Kansas Kis (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shedaresthedevil (ML 12-1)
# 8 Ring Leader (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lady Glamour (ML 50-1)
# 11 Fire Coral (ML 15-1)
# 12 New York Groove (ML 20-1)
# 13 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 14 Alta's Award (ML 12-1)
Venetian Harbor, trained by Richard Baltas, won the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita last time out by as many as she wanted. Swiss Skydiver led the field all the way around the track last time out while winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by open lengths.
Though she was convincingly defeated in the Gulfstream Park Oaks by Swiss Skydiver, I'm going to use Lake Avenue on the main ticket because I think Lake Avenue can improve off that effort. Harvey's Little Goil, trained by Bill Mott, seems to fit well with the contenders.
British Idiom was better than Swiss Skydiver by daylight in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Wholehearted (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Spend Spend Spend (ML 7-2)
# 8 La Chancla (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sara Sea (ML 15-1)
# 5 Rahway (ML 30-1)
# 9 Profound Legacy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Unique Factor (ML 12-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Fugitive Lady (ML 30-1)
# 13 Stirred (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Miss Imperial (ML 4-1); # 2 Violation (ML 30-1); # 4 Full of Grace (ML 8-1); and # 14 Timely Tradition
Wholehearted, winner of the $50k Wilma Mankiller at Will Rodgers Downs last time out, has finished in the Trifecta in eight of her ten career starts at Oaklawn Park. Spend Spend Spend goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.
La Chancla, victorious by daylight the last time that she competed at today's distance, has been working well for Trainer Steve Asmussen in preparation for her 2020 debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,3,5,7,10 with 2,3,4,5,10 with 6,7,8 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 3 with 2 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8,11,12 with 2 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 3,5,9,10,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $90.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
And so we arrive at the closing weekend for the meet at Hot Springs, with Friday's card featuring a trio of stakes, the most prominent being the Grade 3 Fantasy for three year old fillies. I'll be taking a look at all three contests below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - [S] The Arkansas Breeders' Championship $165k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 K J's Nobility (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 10 Glacken's Ghost (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Promising Shoes (ML 5-1)
# 2 Souixper Charger (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hamazing Vision (ML 9-2)
# 5 Prospector Fever (ML 8-1)
# 6 J. E.'s Handmedown (ML 15-1)
# 7 Destiny Way (ML 20-1)
# 8 Heritage Park (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bandit Point (ML 10-1)
# 11 Man in the Can (ML 6-1)
K J's Nobility has won three of his last four contests, including an open length victory last time out in the $100k Nodouble Breeders' Stakes (which, like today's contest, was restricted to state bred entrants only). Glacken's Ghost, soundly defeated by K J's Nobility last time out, could turn the tables on that rival with the added distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gardenia $80k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gingham (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Piece of My Heart (ML 8-1)
# 5 Daphne Moon (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Flag (ML 9-2)
# 10 Antoinette (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Turnstone (ML 30-1)
# 8 Comical (ML 15-1)
# 11 His Glory (ML 8-1)
# 12 Shanghai Keely (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Kat Taps (ML 30-1); # 6 Quick Decision (ML 12-1); # 9 Ice Princess (ML 10-1); # 13 Kiss the Girl (ML 30-1); and # 14 Punk Rock (ML 30-1)
Gingham took the Place behind Venetian Harbor last time out in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag filled out the Exacta over this main track against Optional Claiming company (OC 80k N2L) last time out, and both Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag have been progressing well so far in their respective three year old campaigns.
Daphne Moon could improve going second off the layoff. Antoinette took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Fantasy (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Venetian Harbor (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Swiss Skydiver (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lake Avenue (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harvey's Little Goil (ML 12-1)
# 10 British Idiom (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Ice Princess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Kansas Kis (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shedaresthedevil (ML 12-1)
# 8 Ring Leader (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lady Glamour (ML 50-1)
# 11 Fire Coral (ML 15-1)
# 12 New York Groove (ML 20-1)
# 13 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 14 Alta's Award (ML 12-1)
Venetian Harbor, trained by Richard Baltas, won the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita last time out by as many as she wanted. Swiss Skydiver led the field all the way around the track last time out while winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by open lengths.
Though she was convincingly defeated in the Gulfstream Park Oaks by Swiss Skydiver, I'm going to use Lake Avenue on the main ticket because I think Lake Avenue can improve off that effort. Harvey's Little Goil, trained by Bill Mott, seems to fit well with the contenders.
British Idiom was better than Swiss Skydiver by daylight in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Wholehearted (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Spend Spend Spend (ML 7-2)
# 8 La Chancla (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sara Sea (ML 15-1)
# 5 Rahway (ML 30-1)
# 9 Profound Legacy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Unique Factor (ML 12-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Fugitive Lady (ML 30-1)
# 13 Stirred (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Miss Imperial (ML 4-1); # 2 Violation (ML 30-1); # 4 Full of Grace (ML 8-1); and # 14 Timely Tradition
Wholehearted, winner of the $50k Wilma Mankiller at Will Rodgers Downs last time out, has finished in the Trifecta in eight of her ten career starts at Oaklawn Park. Spend Spend Spend goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.
La Chancla, victorious by daylight the last time that she competed at today's distance, has been working well for Trainer Steve Asmussen in preparation for her 2020 debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,3,5,7,10 with 2,3,4,5,10 with 6,7,8 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 3 with 2 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8,11,12 with 2 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 3,5,9,10,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $90.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 25, 2020
4/25/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 4 Sneaking Out (Final Odds 1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Bachelor - # 9 Long Weekend (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Carousel - # 8 Mia Mischief (1.50) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Violent Pass (25.90) - "C" Selection
My decision to spread in Saturday's two featured events proved to be a wise one, as neither # 7 Eight Rings (0.80*) in the Bachelor, nor # 1 Bellafina (1.40*) in the Carousel, was able to finish in the Trifecta in their respective contests. Unfortunately for me, being correct in those two legs wasn't good enough to make Saturday a day for me to collect instead of contribute; because, for the second week in a row, the victor in the nightcap was a runner not to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 1 Copper King (3.90) - $117.50 Finish: 2nd
# 4 Unrighteous (0.70*) - $42.00 Finish: 4th
# 5 Belfast Boy (42.20) - $953.55 Finish: 5th
# 6 Aztec Empire (7.80) - $178.00 Finish: 8th
# 7 A. K. Safari (24.30) - $928.85 Finish: 12th
# 9 Ronamo (8.30) - $263.90 Finish: 3rd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $421.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Bachelor - # 9 Long Weekend (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Carousel - # 8 Mia Mischief (1.50) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Violent Pass (25.90) - "C" Selection
My decision to spread in Saturday's two featured events proved to be a wise one, as neither # 7 Eight Rings (0.80*) in the Bachelor, nor # 1 Bellafina (1.40*) in the Carousel, was able to finish in the Trifecta in their respective contests. Unfortunately for me, being correct in those two legs wasn't good enough to make Saturday a day for me to collect instead of contribute; because, for the second week in a row, the victor in the nightcap was a runner not to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 1 Copper King (3.90) - $117.50 Finish: 2nd
# 4 Unrighteous (0.70*) - $42.00 Finish: 4th
# 5 Belfast Boy (42.20) - $953.55 Finish: 5th
# 6 Aztec Empire (7.80) - $178.00 Finish: 8th
# 7 A. K. Safari (24.30) - $928.85 Finish: 12th
# 9 Ronamo (8.30) - $263.90 Finish: 3rd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 8 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $421.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/25/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” - Earl Nightingale
There's a pair of Listed Stakes on Saturday's card in Hot Springs; each six furlongs in length, both of which are scheduled to be run among the final four contests on the program. So with that as teaser let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Sneaking Out (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 8 Ready to Runaway (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bye Bye J (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Flat Out Speed (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lady of Luxury (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nomizar (ML 9-2)
# 6 On Deck (ML 10-1)
# 7 My Sister Madi (ML 20-1)
# 10 Beautiful Tale (ML 10-1)
# 11 Potra Liza (ML 20-1)
# 12 A. P. Princess (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Bootytama (ML 12-1) and # 13 Ilchester Cheetah (ML 9-2)
Sneaking Out makes her 2020 debut while returning to the barn of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with those coming off an extended vacation. Ready to Runaway may be outclassed here; but Ready to Runaway may also be quickest here, so she just might hold on until the wire.
Bye Bye J was victorious by daylight last time out in front of a trio of next out winners (Matapan, Georgia's Reward, and Dutch Treat). The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Bachelor $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Eight Rings (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Town (ML 9-2)
# 9 Long Weekend (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Little Menace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Lykan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sir Rick (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Beau Oxy (ML 20-1); # 4 Ginobili (ML 6-1); and # 6 Liam's Pride (ML 20-1)
Eight Rings, making his 2020 debut for Trainer Bob Baffert, looks classiest here; and the bullet work on 4/17 suggests that Eight Rings will not have any problems handling this track. Which probably means that Eight Rings should be a single here; but I'm going to play it safe here by using Echo Town and Long Weekend on the main ticket as well, as both Echo Town and Long Weekend appear to be in good enough form that their chances should not be easily dismissed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - (F) The Carousel $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bellafina (ML 8-5)
B's
# 8 Mia Mischief (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Midnight Fantasy (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sunny Dale (ML 6-1)
# 4 What a Fox (ML 8-1)
# 5 Classy Act (ML 15-1)
# 6 Amy's Challenge (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Suebee (ML 20-1)
Bellafina, making her 2020 debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, is clearly classiest here. So why isn't Bellafina a big ticket single? My main concern with Bellafina is that if she gets caught up in a hot pace, coming off the layoff, Bellafina may be vulnerable in the stretch. So, for that reason, I've slotted Mia Mischief in as a "B" Selection, because I think Mia Mischief could be the one running best late. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Unrighteous (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Copper King (ML 7-2)
# 5 Belfast Boy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Aztec Empire (ML 5-1)
# 7 A. K. Safari (ML 10-1)
# 9 Romano (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 All About Will (ML 12-1)
# 3 Violent Pass (ML 15-1)
# 8 Lookin High (ML 15-1)
# 10 Majestic Display (ML 20-1)
# 11 On d'Oro (ML 8-1)
# 12 Tiz the Journey (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Scale (ML 6-1) and # 14 Working Title
Unrighteous, trained by Todd Pletcher, was in over his head last time out in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and should appreciate the return to the maiden ranks. Copper King has finished in the Exacta at this class level in seven of his nine career starts; so Copper King can win at this class level; the question is, "Will he?"
Belfast Boy showed next to nothing in his debut last time out; but Belfast Boy has been working well in the AM, and Trainer Mike Puhich tends to do well with second time starters. Aztec Empire and A. K. Safari both took the Show (in separate contests) at this class level last time out.
Romano is moving up from the Maiden Claiming ranks; but Romano has performed well at this class level in the past, and Romano could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. In addition to playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I'm also going to play a ticket to press up the possibility of a Eight Rings / Bellafina Daily Double in the middle of the sequence. So with all that, I get:
Special Eight Rings / Bellafina Ticket
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 7 with 1 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $9.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 3,7,9 with 1,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 7 with 1 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,8 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 2,3,8,10,11,12 $3.00
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
There's a pair of Listed Stakes on Saturday's card in Hot Springs; each six furlongs in length, both of which are scheduled to be run among the final four contests on the program. So with that as teaser let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Sneaking Out (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 8 Ready to Runaway (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bye Bye J (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Flat Out Speed (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lady of Luxury (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nomizar (ML 9-2)
# 6 On Deck (ML 10-1)
# 7 My Sister Madi (ML 20-1)
# 10 Beautiful Tale (ML 10-1)
# 11 Potra Liza (ML 20-1)
# 12 A. P. Princess (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Bootytama (ML 12-1) and # 13 Ilchester Cheetah (ML 9-2)
Sneaking Out makes her 2020 debut while returning to the barn of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with those coming off an extended vacation. Ready to Runaway may be outclassed here; but Ready to Runaway may also be quickest here, so she just might hold on until the wire.
Bye Bye J was victorious by daylight last time out in front of a trio of next out winners (Matapan, Georgia's Reward, and Dutch Treat). The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Bachelor $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Eight Rings (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Town (ML 9-2)
# 9 Long Weekend (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Little Menace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Lykan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sir Rick (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Beau Oxy (ML 20-1); # 4 Ginobili (ML 6-1); and # 6 Liam's Pride (ML 20-1)
Eight Rings, making his 2020 debut for Trainer Bob Baffert, looks classiest here; and the bullet work on 4/17 suggests that Eight Rings will not have any problems handling this track. Which probably means that Eight Rings should be a single here; but I'm going to play it safe here by using Echo Town and Long Weekend on the main ticket as well, as both Echo Town and Long Weekend appear to be in good enough form that their chances should not be easily dismissed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - (F) The Carousel $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bellafina (ML 8-5)
B's
# 8 Mia Mischief (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Midnight Fantasy (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sunny Dale (ML 6-1)
# 4 What a Fox (ML 8-1)
# 5 Classy Act (ML 15-1)
# 6 Amy's Challenge (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Suebee (ML 20-1)
Bellafina, making her 2020 debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, is clearly classiest here. So why isn't Bellafina a big ticket single? My main concern with Bellafina is that if she gets caught up in a hot pace, coming off the layoff, Bellafina may be vulnerable in the stretch. So, for that reason, I've slotted Mia Mischief in as a "B" Selection, because I think Mia Mischief could be the one running best late. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Unrighteous (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Copper King (ML 7-2)
# 5 Belfast Boy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Aztec Empire (ML 5-1)
# 7 A. K. Safari (ML 10-1)
# 9 Romano (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 All About Will (ML 12-1)
# 3 Violent Pass (ML 15-1)
# 8 Lookin High (ML 15-1)
# 10 Majestic Display (ML 20-1)
# 11 On d'Oro (ML 8-1)
# 12 Tiz the Journey (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Scale (ML 6-1) and # 14 Working Title
Unrighteous, trained by Todd Pletcher, was in over his head last time out in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and should appreciate the return to the maiden ranks. Copper King has finished in the Exacta at this class level in seven of his nine career starts; so Copper King can win at this class level; the question is, "Will he?"
Belfast Boy showed next to nothing in his debut last time out; but Belfast Boy has been working well in the AM, and Trainer Mike Puhich tends to do well with second time starters. Aztec Empire and A. K. Safari both took the Show (in separate contests) at this class level last time out.
Romano is moving up from the Maiden Claiming ranks; but Romano has performed well at this class level in the past, and Romano could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. In addition to playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I'm also going to play a ticket to press up the possibility of a Eight Rings / Bellafina Daily Double in the middle of the sequence. So with all that, I get:
Special Eight Rings / Bellafina Ticket
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 7 with 1 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $9.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 3,7,9 with 1,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 7 with 1 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,8 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 2,3,8,10,11,12 $3.00
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 18, 2020
4/18/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Count Fleet - # 9 Whitmore (Final Odds 3.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Break Even (1.60*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Apple Blossom - # 14 Ce Ce (3.90) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Curlin Rules (17.10) - "C" Selection
Congratulations to Whitmore and his connections on his performance Saturday, winning his third Count Fleet while surpassing three million dollars (US) in career earnings; and in the process becoming the winningest stakes horse in Oaklawn Park history. As regards my own performance Saturday, my failure to zero in on either winner in the stakes meant that I was unable to spread wider where needed in the nightcap.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 2 Kurilov (Chi) (5.60) - $198.65 Finish: 4th
# 5 Degrom (4.40) - $319.80 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Super Dude (16.00) - $505.85 Finish: 5th
# 10 Matrooh (3.00*) - $196.70 Finish: 7th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 14 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $562.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 6 Break Even (1.60*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Apple Blossom - # 14 Ce Ce (3.90) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 3 Curlin Rules (17.10) - "C" Selection
Congratulations to Whitmore and his connections on his performance Saturday, winning his third Count Fleet while surpassing three million dollars (US) in career earnings; and in the process becoming the winningest stakes horse in Oaklawn Park history. As regards my own performance Saturday, my failure to zero in on either winner in the stakes meant that I was unable to spread wider where needed in the nightcap.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the final leg:
# 2 Kurilov (Chi) (5.60) - $198.65 Finish: 4th
# 5 Degrom (4.40) - $319.80 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Super Dude (16.00) - $505.85 Finish: 5th
# 10 Matrooh (3.00*) - $196.70 Finish: 7th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 6 / 14 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $562.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/18/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“If one dream should fall and break into a thousand pieces, never be afraid to pick one of those pieces up and begin again.” - Flavia Weedn
Saturday's card in Hot Springs features a pair of Graded Stakes; a sprint for the males, and a route for the females. As they've been written in among the final four contests on the program, I'll be taking a look at both events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - The Count Fleet (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Whitmore (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 4 Bobby's Wicked One (ML 3-1)
# 10 Share the Upside (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Lexitonian (ML 30-1)
# 2 Flagstaff (ML 7-2)
# 3 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 15-1)
# 5 Wendell Fong (ML 30-1)
# 6 Mr. Jagermeister (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hidden Scroll (ML 4-1)
# 8 Manny Wah (ML 30-1)
# 11 Nitrous (ML 20-1)
Whitmore, Place finisher in the 2019 running of this event behind Mitole, looks to be in top form for Saturday's running. Bobby's Wicked One looks well meant here, and Bobby's Wicked One's morning works over this track suggest that the surface should pose no problems.
Share the Upside could rebound off his poor showing last time out in the Hot Springs, and return to the form that he showed two back in the King Cotton, where Share the Upside got under the wire more than a length in front of Whitmore. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 50k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Shanghai Tariff (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Meadow Dance (ML 4-1)
# 6 Break Even (ML 3-1)
# 8 Heavens Whisper (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Liz's Cable Girl (ML 20-1)
# 4 Headland (ML 10-1)
# 7 Honey's Sox Appeal (ML 30-1)
# 9 Mt. Brave (ML 10-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Spring in the Wind (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 3 My Sister Madi (ML 30-1) and # 10 Take Charge Angel (ML 12-1)
This contest is written for fillies and mares four years old and upward which have not won $45k other than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, or State Bred since November 18, 2019. Note for posterity that all of the entrants in this field are under the earnings requirement, so none of these runners are up for sale at the $50k claiming price.
Shanghai Tariff took the Place at this class level last time out. Shanghai Tariff has finished in the Trifecta nine of the ten times that she has competed over this track.
Meadow Dance, making her 2020 debut, has finished in the Exacta in each of her last three starts, all against stakes competition. Break Even, like Meadow Dance trained by Brad Cox, may have needed that last race off the five month layoff.
Heavens Whisper, daylight winner over this track in each of her two prior starts, seems capable of handling the rise in class. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) The Apple Blossom (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 12 Go Google Yourself (ML 12-1)
B's
# 4 Come Dancing (ML 3-1)
# 11 Serengeti Empress (ML 4-1)
# 14 Ce Ce (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Ollie's Candy (ML 12-1)
# 2 Coldwater (ML 50-1)
# 3 Awe Emma (ML 20-1)
# 5 Point of Honor (ML 10-1)
# 6 Street Band (ML 15-1)
# 7 Queen Nekia (ML 20-1)
# 8 Saracosa (ML 30-1)
# 9 Horologist (ML 15-1)
# 10 Cookie Dough (ML 10-1)
# 13 Lady Apple (ML 15-1)
Go Google Yourself, winner of the Grade 3 Bayakoa over this track last time out, seems to be capable of handling the class rise. Come Dancing appears to be most talented here; but Come Dancing may need more distance to show her best.
Serengeti Empress, winner of the Grade 2 Azeri over this track last time out, has been working well for this contest. Ce Ce, open length winner of the Grade 1 Beholder Mile last time out, could be compromised by the far outside draw. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Degrom (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Kurilov (Chi) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Super Dude (ML 6-1)
# 10 Matrooh (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Timeline (ML 4-1)
# 3 Curlin Rules (ML 8-1)
# 4 Eisenstaedt (ML 10-1)
# 7 Spikes Shirl (ML 15-1)
# 9 Zero Gravity (ML 12-1)
# 11 Arrival (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hawaakom (ML 15-1)
# 13 Colonelsdarktemper (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 6 County Court (ML 30-1) and # 14 Hunka Burning Love (ML 12-1)
Degrom defeated classier foes two starts back. Degrom goes first time for Trainer David Fawkes, who tends to do well with such.
Kurilov (Chi) could move up with the drop in class. Super Dude defeated classier stock two starts back. Matrooh won at this class level two starts back. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 1 with 12 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,9,10 with 1,5,6,8 with 4,11,12,14 with 2,5,8,10 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,11 with 1 with 12 with 5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,4,7,9,11,12 with 12 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,13 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 12 with 1,3,4,7,9,11,12,13 $4.00
Total: $113.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday's card in Hot Springs features a pair of Graded Stakes; a sprint for the males, and a route for the females. As they've been written in among the final four contests on the program, I'll be taking a look at both events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - The Count Fleet (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Whitmore (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 4 Bobby's Wicked One (ML 3-1)
# 10 Share the Upside (ML 10-1)
C's
# 1 Lexitonian (ML 30-1)
# 2 Flagstaff (ML 7-2)
# 3 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 15-1)
# 5 Wendell Fong (ML 30-1)
# 6 Mr. Jagermeister (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hidden Scroll (ML 4-1)
# 8 Manny Wah (ML 30-1)
# 11 Nitrous (ML 20-1)
Whitmore, Place finisher in the 2019 running of this event behind Mitole, looks to be in top form for Saturday's running. Bobby's Wicked One looks well meant here, and Bobby's Wicked One's morning works over this track suggest that the surface should pose no problems.
Share the Upside could rebound off his poor showing last time out in the Hot Springs, and return to the form that he showed two back in the King Cotton, where Share the Upside got under the wire more than a length in front of Whitmore. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 50k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Shanghai Tariff (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Meadow Dance (ML 4-1)
# 6 Break Even (ML 3-1)
# 8 Heavens Whisper (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Liz's Cable Girl (ML 20-1)
# 4 Headland (ML 10-1)
# 7 Honey's Sox Appeal (ML 30-1)
# 9 Mt. Brave (ML 10-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Spring in the Wind (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 3 My Sister Madi (ML 30-1) and # 10 Take Charge Angel (ML 12-1)
This contest is written for fillies and mares four years old and upward which have not won $45k other than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, or State Bred since November 18, 2019. Note for posterity that all of the entrants in this field are under the earnings requirement, so none of these runners are up for sale at the $50k claiming price.
Shanghai Tariff took the Place at this class level last time out. Shanghai Tariff has finished in the Trifecta nine of the ten times that she has competed over this track.
Meadow Dance, making her 2020 debut, has finished in the Exacta in each of her last three starts, all against stakes competition. Break Even, like Meadow Dance trained by Brad Cox, may have needed that last race off the five month layoff.
Heavens Whisper, daylight winner over this track in each of her two prior starts, seems capable of handling the rise in class. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) The Apple Blossom (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 12 Go Google Yourself (ML 12-1)
B's
# 4 Come Dancing (ML 3-1)
# 11 Serengeti Empress (ML 4-1)
# 14 Ce Ce (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Ollie's Candy (ML 12-1)
# 2 Coldwater (ML 50-1)
# 3 Awe Emma (ML 20-1)
# 5 Point of Honor (ML 10-1)
# 6 Street Band (ML 15-1)
# 7 Queen Nekia (ML 20-1)
# 8 Saracosa (ML 30-1)
# 9 Horologist (ML 15-1)
# 10 Cookie Dough (ML 10-1)
# 13 Lady Apple (ML 15-1)
Go Google Yourself, winner of the Grade 3 Bayakoa over this track last time out, seems to be capable of handling the class rise. Come Dancing appears to be most talented here; but Come Dancing may need more distance to show her best.
Serengeti Empress, winner of the Grade 2 Azeri over this track last time out, has been working well for this contest. Ce Ce, open length winner of the Grade 1 Beholder Mile last time out, could be compromised by the far outside draw. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - Clm $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Degrom (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Kurilov (Chi) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Super Dude (ML 6-1)
# 10 Matrooh (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Timeline (ML 4-1)
# 3 Curlin Rules (ML 8-1)
# 4 Eisenstaedt (ML 10-1)
# 7 Spikes Shirl (ML 15-1)
# 9 Zero Gravity (ML 12-1)
# 11 Arrival (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hawaakom (ML 15-1)
# 13 Colonelsdarktemper (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 6 County Court (ML 30-1) and # 14 Hunka Burning Love (ML 12-1)
Degrom defeated classier foes two starts back. Degrom goes first time for Trainer David Fawkes, who tends to do well with such.
Kurilov (Chi) could move up with the drop in class. Super Dude defeated classier stock two starts back. Matrooh won at this class level two starts back. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 1 with 12 with 5 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,9,10 with 1,5,6,8 with 4,11,12,14 with 2,5,8,10 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,11 with 1 with 12 with 5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,4,7,9,11,12 with 12 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,13 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 12 with 1,3,4,7,9,11,12,13 $4.00
Total: $113.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 11, 2020
4/11/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The Oaklawn Mile - # 3 Tom's d'Etat (Final Odds 0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Prodigious Bay (8.80) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Oaklawn - # 3 Mr. Big News (46.80) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - # 11 Alkhaatam (37.90) - "C" Selection
You can't ask for a much better beginning than getting your big ticket single home. You also can't ask for a much worse follow-up to getting your big ticket single home, as each subsequent visitor to the Winner's Circle Saturday was nowhere to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 1 / 3 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $26,935.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - # 1 Prodigious Bay (8.80) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Oaklawn - # 3 Mr. Big News (46.80) - "C" Selection
Race 12 - # 11 Alkhaatam (37.90) - "C" Selection
You can't ask for a much better beginning than getting your big ticket single home. You also can't ask for a much worse follow-up to getting your big ticket single home, as each subsequent visitor to the Winner's Circle Saturday was nowhere to be found on my main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 1 / 3 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $26,935.70 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/11/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Enjoying success requires the ability to adapt. Only by being open to change will you have a true opportunity to get the most from your talent.” - Nolan Ryan
Saturday was originally intended to be Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn Park; but, well, things changed. Lots of things. And yet, in one way, things remained the same; as Saturday will still feature a prep race in Hot Springs that will reward its top three finishers with entry into the biggest race being run on the first Saturday in May (not to mention an automatic entry for the winner into the Preakness ). The prep race of which I speak is the newly minted $200k Oaklawn Stakes, which I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 9 - The Oaklawn Mile $150k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Tom's d'Etat (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Slick Silver (ML 30-1)
# 2 Mr. Money (ML 4-1)
# 4 Pioneer Spirit (ML 6-1)
# 5 Boldor (ML 20-1)
# 7 Snapper Sinclair (ML 10-1)
# 8 Bankit (ML 15-1)
# 10 Long Range Toddy (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lord Guinness (ML 30-1)
# 13 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 14 Improbable (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 6 M G Warrior (ML 15-1); # 9 Home Run Trick (ML 30-1); and # 12 Kershaw (ML 20-1)
If you're gonna single, might as well do it in the opening leg and get it over with. Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 1 Clark last time out, and the Grade 2 Fayette the time out before that, and Mr. Money, who missed by just a neck of winning five straight Graded Stakes in 2019, look to have a clear class edge over the rest of the field. Yeah, there's also Improbable, who is undoubtedly a tremendously talented horse. But Improbable has a history of disappointing on race day; so, for me, it comes down to Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money.
Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money are both making their 2020 debuts; and of the two, I think Tom's d'Etat tends to run better off just works. Tom's d'Etat also seems better suited to the eight furlong distance than Mr. Money.
It's quite possible come Saturday evening that I'll be seriously regretting not having used both Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money on my main ticket; but right now I think that it would be a serious waste of bankroll to double the cost of my play. So it's Tom's d'Etat as my big ticket single, while Mr. Money joins all the other entrants as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Eddy Forever (ML 9-2)
B's
# 4 What a Country (ML 8-1)
# 7 Oxide (ML 5-1)
# 10 Dean Martini (ML 7-2)
# 12 Hunt the Front (ML 6-1)
# 13 Seizetheday Rexy (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Prodigious Bay (ML 20-1)
# 2 The Falcon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Overshadow (ML 20-1)
# 5 Instigated (ML 10-1)
# 6 Ugo (ML 20-1)
# 8 Urbanite (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 11 Wartime Hero (ML 10-1) and # 14 Slew Tang Clan (ML 15-1)
Eddy Forever has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts on dirt. What a Country took the Place (albeit a well beaten Place) at this class level in his debut last time out. Oxide was within a length of the winner in each of his two prior starts at this class level.
Dean Martini has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his half dozen career starts, save one. Hunt the Front has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts. Seizetheday Rexy could find himself in position to get first run at the leaders. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 11 - The Oaklawn $200k - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Thousand Words (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Basin (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sir Rick (ML 15-1)
# 13 Gold Street (ML 20-1)
C's
# 2 Coach Bahe (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mr. Big News (ML 30-1)
# 6 Shoplifted (ML 10-1)
# 7 Flap Jack (ML 20-1)
# 8 Taishan (ML 8-1)
# 9 Digital (ML 8-1)
# 10 Something Natural (ML 20-1)
# 11 Background (ML 12-1)
# 12 Farmington Road (ML 6-1)
If Thousand Words can rebound off that poor showing in the Grade 2 San Felipe, then he looks to be much the best here. Of course, if Thousand Words doesn't rebound off that poor showing, I'll be looking pretty silly later for having made him my top pick.
Basin, Show finisher in the Grade 2 Rebel last time out, could improve going second off the layoff. Sir Rick, open lengths winner of the $100k Mine That Bird Derby last time out, seems capable of handling the class elevation. Gold Street, winner of the Smarty Jones over this track back in January, should be forgiven for that poor effort last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - OC 50k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Sonny Smack (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 5 Popular Kid (ML 9-2)
# 6 Exulting (ML 4-1)
# 9 Cashanova (ML 8-1)
# 13 High Security (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 2 Colonelsdarktemper (ML 20-1)
# 3 Hunka Burning Love (ML 15-1)
# 4 Limonite (ML 8-1)
# 7 Croatian (ML 20-1)
# 11 Alkhaatam (ML 30-1)
# 12 Two Emmys (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Charlie'sarchangel (ML 10-1) and # 14 Irish Heatwave (ML 6-1)
Sonny Smack disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against classier competition. Popular Kid looks like he can win from anywhere on the track, and Trainer Jason Barkley tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
Exulting was simply out classed last time out, and can be expected to run better today. Cashanova took the Show at this class level last time out. High Security could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 9 with 4 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,7,9,10,12,13 with 1,4,5,13 with 5,6,9,10,13 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14 with 9 with 4 with 10 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,5,6,8 with 4 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,7,11,12 $3.50
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 5:43 EDT / 2:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday was originally intended to be Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn Park; but, well, things changed. Lots of things. And yet, in one way, things remained the same; as Saturday will still feature a prep race in Hot Springs that will reward its top three finishers with entry into the biggest race being run on the first Saturday in May (not to mention an automatic entry for the winner into the Preakness ). The prep race of which I speak is the newly minted $200k Oaklawn Stakes, which I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 9 - The Oaklawn Mile $150k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Tom's d'Etat (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Slick Silver (ML 30-1)
# 2 Mr. Money (ML 4-1)
# 4 Pioneer Spirit (ML 6-1)
# 5 Boldor (ML 20-1)
# 7 Snapper Sinclair (ML 10-1)
# 8 Bankit (ML 15-1)
# 10 Long Range Toddy (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lord Guinness (ML 30-1)
# 13 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 14 Improbable (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 6 M G Warrior (ML 15-1); # 9 Home Run Trick (ML 30-1); and # 12 Kershaw (ML 20-1)
If you're gonna single, might as well do it in the opening leg and get it over with. Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 1 Clark last time out, and the Grade 2 Fayette the time out before that, and Mr. Money, who missed by just a neck of winning five straight Graded Stakes in 2019, look to have a clear class edge over the rest of the field. Yeah, there's also Improbable, who is undoubtedly a tremendously talented horse. But Improbable has a history of disappointing on race day; so, for me, it comes down to Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money.
Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money are both making their 2020 debuts; and of the two, I think Tom's d'Etat tends to run better off just works. Tom's d'Etat also seems better suited to the eight furlong distance than Mr. Money.
It's quite possible come Saturday evening that I'll be seriously regretting not having used both Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money on my main ticket; but right now I think that it would be a serious waste of bankroll to double the cost of my play. So it's Tom's d'Etat as my big ticket single, while Mr. Money joins all the other entrants as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Eddy Forever (ML 9-2)
B's
# 4 What a Country (ML 8-1)
# 7 Oxide (ML 5-1)
# 10 Dean Martini (ML 7-2)
# 12 Hunt the Front (ML 6-1)
# 13 Seizetheday Rexy (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Prodigious Bay (ML 20-1)
# 2 The Falcon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Overshadow (ML 20-1)
# 5 Instigated (ML 10-1)
# 6 Ugo (ML 20-1)
# 8 Urbanite (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 11 Wartime Hero (ML 10-1) and # 14 Slew Tang Clan (ML 15-1)
Eddy Forever has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts on dirt. What a Country took the Place (albeit a well beaten Place) at this class level in his debut last time out. Oxide was within a length of the winner in each of his two prior starts at this class level.
Dean Martini has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his half dozen career starts, save one. Hunt the Front has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts. Seizetheday Rexy could find himself in position to get first run at the leaders. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 11 - The Oaklawn $200k - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Thousand Words (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Basin (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sir Rick (ML 15-1)
# 13 Gold Street (ML 20-1)
C's
# 2 Coach Bahe (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mr. Big News (ML 30-1)
# 6 Shoplifted (ML 10-1)
# 7 Flap Jack (ML 20-1)
# 8 Taishan (ML 8-1)
# 9 Digital (ML 8-1)
# 10 Something Natural (ML 20-1)
# 11 Background (ML 12-1)
# 12 Farmington Road (ML 6-1)
If Thousand Words can rebound off that poor showing in the Grade 2 San Felipe, then he looks to be much the best here. Of course, if Thousand Words doesn't rebound off that poor showing, I'll be looking pretty silly later for having made him my top pick.
Basin, Show finisher in the Grade 2 Rebel last time out, could improve going second off the layoff. Sir Rick, open lengths winner of the $100k Mine That Bird Derby last time out, seems capable of handling the class elevation. Gold Street, winner of the Smarty Jones over this track back in January, should be forgiven for that poor effort last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - OC 50k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Sonny Smack (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 5 Popular Kid (ML 9-2)
# 6 Exulting (ML 4-1)
# 9 Cashanova (ML 8-1)
# 13 High Security (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 2 Colonelsdarktemper (ML 20-1)
# 3 Hunka Burning Love (ML 15-1)
# 4 Limonite (ML 8-1)
# 7 Croatian (ML 20-1)
# 11 Alkhaatam (ML 30-1)
# 12 Two Emmys (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Charlie'sarchangel (ML 10-1) and # 14 Irish Heatwave (ML 6-1)
Sonny Smack disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against classier competition. Popular Kid looks like he can win from anywhere on the track, and Trainer Jason Barkley tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
Exulting was simply out classed last time out, and can be expected to run better today. Cashanova took the Show at this class level last time out. High Security could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 9 with 4 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,7,9,10,12,13 with 1,4,5,13 with 5,6,9,10,13 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14 with 9 with 4 with 10 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,5,6,8 with 4 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,7,11,12 $3.50
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 5:43 EDT / 2:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 4, 2020
4/4/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 9 Cardamon (Final Odds 9.20) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Finnick the Fierce (6.20) - via DQ* - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Purple Martin - # 1 Kimari (2.90) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Don Vito Corleone (25.30) - "C" Selection
* In Race 8, "C" Selection # 6 Winning Impression (12.40) crossed under the wire first; but Winning Impression was disqualified and placed 5th for impeding "A" Selection # 5 Answer In (0.50*) and costing Answer In a better placing.
As sometimes happens in horse racing, a runner that was probably going to win anyway gets disqualified for interfering with an opponent that almost certainly wasn't going to pass him. Such was the case in Saturday's second leg, as Winning Impression was clearly the best in the field; but Winning Impression also very clearly cost Answer In a better placing, causing the disqualification which made Finnick the Fierce the Official winner of Race 8.
Of course, all that made no difference to my play, as I could have made anyone I wanted the winner of Race 8 and Saturday would still have been a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 1 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $4,728.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - # 1 Finnick the Fierce (6.20) - via DQ* - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Purple Martin - # 1 Kimari (2.90) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Don Vito Corleone (25.30) - "C" Selection
* In Race 8, "C" Selection # 6 Winning Impression (12.40) crossed under the wire first; but Winning Impression was disqualified and placed 5th for impeding "A" Selection # 5 Answer In (0.50*) and costing Answer In a better placing.
As sometimes happens in horse racing, a runner that was probably going to win anyway gets disqualified for interfering with an opponent that almost certainly wasn't going to pass him. Such was the case in Saturday's second leg, as Winning Impression was clearly the best in the field; but Winning Impression also very clearly cost Answer In a better placing, causing the disqualification which made Finnick the Fierce the Official winner of Race 8.
Of course, all that made no difference to my play, as I could have made anyone I wanted the winner of Race 8 and Saturday would still have been a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 1 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $4,728.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/4/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview
“Courage doesn’t always roar. Sometimes courage is the little voice at the end of the day that says I’ll try again tomorrow.” - Mary Anne Radmacher
Greetings once again; as I hope this finds all of you and all those for whom you care healthy and happy and sane. Once again I try again; this Saturday turning my attention to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where there will almost certainly be rain; but hopefully the sun will shine on my play. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Dulce Ride (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 3 Maryanorginger (ML 7-2)
# 11 Georgia Clay (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Letters to Belle (ML 50-1)
# 2 Inthemidstofbiz (ML 4-1)
# 4 Take Charge Erica (ML 15-1)
# 5 Savvy Ally (ML 15-1)
# 7 Portal Creek (ML 5-1)
# 9 Cardamon (ML 9-2)
# 10 Super Wonder Girl (ML 8-1)
# 12 Wishful Quality (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 8 Lady Gusto (ML 30-1)
Dulce Ride, trained by Brad Cox, probably needed that last race, coming as she was off a nearly year long layoff. Maryanorginger graduated in front of a next out winner in her debut last time out; but last time out for Maryanorginger was back in June, so it's fair to wonder just how ready she will be for this first try against winners.
Georgia Clay took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Answer In (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 General Trev (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 6-1)
# 2 Stackin Silver (ML 10-1)
# 6 Winning Impression (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fort Knox (ML 8-1)
# 8 Hail to the Chief (ML 20-1)
# 9 Unthrottled (ML 20-1)
# 10 Adhhar (ML 12-1)
# 11 Bahama Channel (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 Nashvegas (ML 20-1) and # 12 Davidic Line (ML 20-1)
Answer In, trained by Brad Cox, took the Show in the Grade 3 Southwest last time out. Answer In should probably be a single here; but my concern with Answer In is that he has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two prior starts; and that's certainly not a healthy trend.
General Trev won his debut by daylight last time out, and Trainer Steve Asmussen tends to do well when placing his last out graduates. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Purple Martin $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 8 Frank's Rockette (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Kimari (ML 4-1)
# 4 Edgeway (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lexi On the Move (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Ring Leader (ML 6-1)
# 5 Bootytama (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lady Glamour (ML 15-1)
# 9 Kiss the Girl (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wasabi Girl (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Flat Out Speed (ML 20-1)
Frank's Rockette, multiple times Graded Stakes placed, has yet to finish out of the Exacta in her five race career for Trainer Bill Mott. Kimari, trained by Wesley Ward, returns to the dirt for her 2020 debut, and her recent bullet work at Keeneland on Monday suggests that the surface switch should pose no problems for Kimari.
Edgeway won her debut by as many as she wanted for Trainer John Sadler last time out. Lexi On the Move, trained by Robertino Diodoro, was a multi-length winner in each of her two prior starts, both at today's distance, and both over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Mo and Go (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Aztec Empire (ML 4-1)
# 5 Wild Union (ML 7-2)
# 7 Copper King (ML 6-1)
# 12 On d'Oro (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 White Wolf (ML 15-1)
# 2 Great Faces (ML 8-1)
# 3 Stonegate (ML 15-1)
# 6 Don Vito Corleone (ML 20-1)
# 9 Lookin High (ML 12-1)
# 10 Wild and Golden (ML 30-1)
# 11 Tiz the Journey (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Time Is Now (ML 12-1) and # 14 A. K. Safari (ML 8-1)
Mo and Go may have needed that last race off the layoff. Aztec Empire took the Show at this class level last time out; and Aztec Empire is lightly raced enough to suggest that improvement is possible.
Wild Union, Copper King, and On d'Oro have finished in the Trifecta multiple times at this class level, which shows that they fit at this class level; but it could also be a red flag, suggesting that they may be settling for too many minor awards. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 5 with 8 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,11 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,8 with 4,5,7,8,12 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,12 with 5 with 8 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 8 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,5,7,9,10 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 8 with 1,2,3,6,9,10,11 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Greetings once again; as I hope this finds all of you and all those for whom you care healthy and happy and sane. Once again I try again; this Saturday turning my attention to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where there will almost certainly be rain; but hopefully the sun will shine on my play. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Dulce Ride (Morning Line 8-1)
B's
# 3 Maryanorginger (ML 7-2)
# 11 Georgia Clay (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Letters to Belle (ML 50-1)
# 2 Inthemidstofbiz (ML 4-1)
# 4 Take Charge Erica (ML 15-1)
# 5 Savvy Ally (ML 15-1)
# 7 Portal Creek (ML 5-1)
# 9 Cardamon (ML 9-2)
# 10 Super Wonder Girl (ML 8-1)
# 12 Wishful Quality (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 8 Lady Gusto (ML 30-1)
Dulce Ride, trained by Brad Cox, probably needed that last race, coming as she was off a nearly year long layoff. Maryanorginger graduated in front of a next out winner in her debut last time out; but last time out for Maryanorginger was back in June, so it's fair to wonder just how ready she will be for this first try against winners.
Georgia Clay took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Answer In (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 General Trev (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 6-1)
# 2 Stackin Silver (ML 10-1)
# 6 Winning Impression (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fort Knox (ML 8-1)
# 8 Hail to the Chief (ML 20-1)
# 9 Unthrottled (ML 20-1)
# 10 Adhhar (ML 12-1)
# 11 Bahama Channel (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 4 Nashvegas (ML 20-1) and # 12 Davidic Line (ML 20-1)
Answer In, trained by Brad Cox, took the Show in the Grade 3 Southwest last time out. Answer In should probably be a single here; but my concern with Answer In is that he has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two prior starts; and that's certainly not a healthy trend.
General Trev won his debut by daylight last time out, and Trainer Steve Asmussen tends to do well when placing his last out graduates. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Purple Martin $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 8 Frank's Rockette (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Kimari (ML 4-1)
# 4 Edgeway (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lexi On the Move (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Ring Leader (ML 6-1)
# 5 Bootytama (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lady Glamour (ML 15-1)
# 9 Kiss the Girl (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wasabi Girl (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Flat Out Speed (ML 20-1)
Frank's Rockette, multiple times Graded Stakes placed, has yet to finish out of the Exacta in her five race career for Trainer Bill Mott. Kimari, trained by Wesley Ward, returns to the dirt for her 2020 debut, and her recent bullet work at Keeneland on Monday suggests that the surface switch should pose no problems for Kimari.
Edgeway won her debut by as many as she wanted for Trainer John Sadler last time out. Lexi On the Move, trained by Robertino Diodoro, was a multi-length winner in each of her two prior starts, both at today's distance, and both over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Mo and Go (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Aztec Empire (ML 4-1)
# 5 Wild Union (ML 7-2)
# 7 Copper King (ML 6-1)
# 12 On d'Oro (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 White Wolf (ML 15-1)
# 2 Great Faces (ML 8-1)
# 3 Stonegate (ML 15-1)
# 6 Don Vito Corleone (ML 20-1)
# 9 Lookin High (ML 12-1)
# 10 Wild and Golden (ML 30-1)
# 11 Tiz the Journey (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Time Is Now (ML 12-1) and # 14 A. K. Safari (ML 8-1)
Mo and Go may have needed that last race off the layoff. Aztec Empire took the Show at this class level last time out; and Aztec Empire is lightly raced enough to suggest that improvement is possible.
Wild Union, Copper King, and On d'Oro have finished in the Trifecta multiple times at this class level, which shows that they fit at this class level; but it could also be a red flag, suggesting that they may be settling for too many minor awards. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 5 with 8 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,11 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,8 with 4,5,7,8,12 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,12 with 5 with 8 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 8 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,5,7,9,10 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 8 with 1,2,3,6,9,10,11 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, February 22, 2015
2/22/15 Oaklawn Park Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 11 Julep (Final Odds 4.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Browneyed Bachelor (6.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Southwest - # 6 Far Right (2.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Wit (3.30) - "A" Selection
Our single "A" Selection in Race 7, # 10 Almost English (4.70), took the Place behind Browneyed Bachelor, finishing two and a half lengths behind the winner at the wire. And that was the difference between us cashing and trashing today, as we had the winner on our ticket in each of the other three legs.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 2 / 6 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $580.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Browneyed Bachelor (6.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Southwest - # 6 Far Right (2.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Wit (3.30) - "A" Selection
Our single "A" Selection in Race 7, # 10 Almost English (4.70), took the Place behind Browneyed Bachelor, finishing two and a half lengths behind the winner at the wire. And that was the difference between us cashing and trashing today, as we had the winner on our ticket in each of the other three legs.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 11 / 2 / 6 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $580.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/22/15 Oaklawn Park Pick Four - Preview
As mentioned Friday, someone else harpooned The Great White Whale that is the Golden Pick Six Jackpot at Golden Gate; so we'll give that one at least another week to build back up. There may be rain today at The Great Race Place in SoCal, so those late afternoon turf races may be moved to the main track; and that's just too big a maybe when you're trying to plan a multi-race sequence. There almost definitely will be rain in Hot Springs, Arkansas, where they're running the re-scheduled Southwest Stakes; but there's no turf course from which races will be removed, so we already know that everything is going to be run in the dirt (or, more likely, mud). So with that in mind, let's take a shot at Sunday's Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Cleartap (Morning Line 4-1)
# 9 Sailing Shiksa (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Wildwood Kantharos (ML 10-1)
# 11 Julep (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Sailing Shiksa took the Place at this class level twice as a two year old; this will be her three year old debut. Sailing Shiksa was up on the lead in both of her prior contests, a trait that should prove useful today.
Cleartap, Wildwood Kantharos, and Julep are all first time starters. Cleartap is sired by Tapit, whose offspring win approximately 13% of their debuts. Cleartap also has the best Tomlinson Wet Rating in this field.
Wildwood Kantharos is sired by Kantharos, whose offspring win approximately one quarter of the time at first asking. Julep is sired by Quality Road, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their initial tries. Wildwood Kantharos and Julep are in a virtual tie for best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field.
RACE 7 - Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Almost English (ML 5-1)
B's
# 3 Visionary Ruler (ML 8-1)
# 5 Cowboy Ed (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Almost English won at this class level three starts back, and is two-for-three lifetime when competing on a off track. Visionary Ruler took the Place at this class level three starts back, and just might be the speed of the speed here.
Cowboy Ed is making a huge class leap, moving up from cheaper conditioned claimers; but he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. Cowboy Ed also goes first off the claim for Trainer Paul Holthus, who wins with one third of such.
RACE 8 - The Southwest (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Bayerd (ML 5-1)
# 6 Far Right (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
None
Bayerd, a two-time listed stakes winner, is two-for-two lifetime when competing on a off track. Far Right, winner of The Smarty Jones last time out, looks to be best in field, but may be disadvantaged here by his late running style.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Swagner (ML 3-1)
# 10 Wit (ML 8-1)
B's
# 2 Pea Shooter Pro (ML 10-1)
# 9 Tax Deduction (ML 10-1)
C's
None
# 11 Yukon Sky (ML 12-1) has been scratched.
Swagner, one of several three year olds in this field, made a nice move forward last time out in his second career start, taking the Place at this class level. Wit, a six year old gelding, held his form well when moving from turf to dirt. Wit may appreciate the turnback in distance.
Pea Shooter has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and (with the scratch of Yukon Sky) is in a virtual tie with Tax Deduction for best Tomlinson Wet Rating in this group. Tax Deduction, like Wit, is an older horse who may appreciate the turnback in distance from his last start.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 7,9 with 10 with 1,6 with 7,10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,7,9,11 with 3,5,10 with 1,6 with 2,7,9,10 $48.00
Total: $52.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 4:46 EST / 1:46 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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