“Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” - Earl Nightingale
There's a pair of Listed Stakes on Saturday's card in Hot Springs; each six furlongs in length, both of which are scheduled to be run among the final four contests on the program. So with that as teaser let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Sneaking Out (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 8 Ready to Runaway (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bye Bye J (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Flat Out Speed (ML 12-1)
# 2 Lady of Luxury (ML 12-1)
# 5 Nomizar (ML 9-2)
# 6 On Deck (ML 10-1)
# 7 My Sister Madi (ML 20-1)
# 10 Beautiful Tale (ML 10-1)
# 11 Potra Liza (ML 20-1)
# 12 A. P. Princess (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Bootytama (ML 12-1) and # 13 Ilchester Cheetah (ML 9-2)
Sneaking Out makes her 2020 debut while returning to the barn of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with those coming off an extended vacation. Ready to Runaway may be outclassed here; but Ready to Runaway may also be quickest here, so she just might hold on until the wire.
Bye Bye J was victorious by daylight last time out in front of a trio of next out winners (Matapan, Georgia's Reward, and Dutch Treat). The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Bachelor $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Eight Rings (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Town (ML 9-2)
# 9 Long Weekend (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Little Menace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Lykan (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sir Rick (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Beau Oxy (ML 20-1); # 4 Ginobili (ML 6-1); and # 6 Liam's Pride (ML 20-1)
Eight Rings, making his 2020 debut for Trainer Bob Baffert, looks classiest here; and the bullet work on 4/17 suggests that Eight Rings will not have any problems handling this track. Which probably means that Eight Rings should be a single here; but I'm going to play it safe here by using Echo Town and Long Weekend on the main ticket as well, as both Echo Town and Long Weekend appear to be in good enough form that their chances should not be easily dismissed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - (F) The Carousel $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Bellafina (ML 8-5)
B's
# 8 Mia Mischief (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Midnight Fantasy (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sunny Dale (ML 6-1)
# 4 What a Fox (ML 8-1)
# 5 Classy Act (ML 15-1)
# 6 Amy's Challenge (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lady Suebee (ML 20-1)
Bellafina, making her 2020 debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, is clearly classiest here. So why isn't Bellafina a big ticket single? My main concern with Bellafina is that if she gets caught up in a hot pace, coming off the layoff, Bellafina may be vulnerable in the stretch. So, for that reason, I've slotted Mia Mischief in as a "B" Selection, because I think Mia Mischief could be the one running best late. All other entrants are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Unrighteous (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Copper King (ML 7-2)
# 5 Belfast Boy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Aztec Empire (ML 5-1)
# 7 A. K. Safari (ML 10-1)
# 9 Romano (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 All About Will (ML 12-1)
# 3 Violent Pass (ML 15-1)
# 8 Lookin High (ML 15-1)
# 10 Majestic Display (ML 20-1)
# 11 On d'Oro (ML 8-1)
# 12 Tiz the Journey (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Scale (ML 6-1) and # 14 Working Title
Unrighteous, trained by Todd Pletcher, was in over his head last time out in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and should appreciate the return to the maiden ranks. Copper King has finished in the Exacta at this class level in seven of his nine career starts; so Copper King can win at this class level; the question is, "Will he?"
Belfast Boy showed next to nothing in his debut last time out; but Belfast Boy has been working well in the AM, and Trainer Mike Puhich tends to do well with second time starters. Aztec Empire and A. K. Safari both took the Show (in separate contests) at this class level last time out.
Romano is moving up from the Maiden Claiming ranks; but Romano has performed well at this class level in the past, and Romano could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. In addition to playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I'm also going to play a ticket to press up the possibility of a Eight Rings / Bellafina Daily Double in the middle of the sequence. So with all that, I get:
Special Eight Rings / Bellafina Ticket
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 7 with 1 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $9.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 3,7,9 with 1,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,5,6,7,10,11,12 with 7 with 1 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5,8 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 2,3,8,10,11,12 $3.00
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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