Saturday, April 18, 2020

4/18/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“If one dream should fall and break into a thousand pieces, never be afraid to pick one of those pieces up and begin again.” - Flavia Weedn

Saturday's card in Hot Springs features a pair of Graded Stakes; a sprint for the males, and a route for the females.  As they've been written in among the final four contests on the program, I'll be taking a look at both events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.

RACE 8 - The Count Fleet (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 9 Whitmore (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 4 Bobby's Wicked One (ML 3-1)
# 10 Share the Upside (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Lexitonian (ML 30-1)
# 2 Flagstaff (ML 7-2)
# 3 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 15-1)
# 5 Wendell Fong (ML 30-1)
# 6 Mr. Jagermeister (ML 15-1)
# 7 Hidden Scroll (ML 4-1)
# 8 Manny Wah (ML 30-1)

# 11 Nitrous (ML 20-1)

Whitmore, Place finisher in the 2019 running of this event behind Mitole, looks to be in top form for Saturday's running.  Bobby's Wicked One looks well meant here, and Bobby's Wicked One's morning works over this track suggest that the surface should pose no problems.

Share the Upside could rebound off his poor showing last time out in the Hot Springs, and return to the form that he showed two back in the King Cotton, where Share the Upside got under the wire more than a length in front of Whitmore.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 50k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Shanghai Tariff (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Meadow Dance (ML 4-1)
# 6 Break Even (ML 3-1)
# 8 Heavens Whisper (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Liz's Cable Girl (ML 20-1)
# 4 Headland (ML 10-1)
# 7 Honey's Sox Appeal (ML 30-1)
# 9 Mt. Brave (ML 10-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Spring in the Wind (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 My Sister Madi (ML 30-1) and # 10 Take Charge Angel (ML 12-1)

This contest is written for fillies and mares four years old and upward which have not won $45k other than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, or State Bred since November 18, 2019.  Note for posterity that all of the entrants in this field are under the earnings requirement, so none of these runners are up for sale at the $50k claiming price.

Shanghai Tariff took the Place at this class level last time out.  Shanghai Tariff has finished in the Trifecta nine of the ten times that she has competed over this track.

Meadow Dance, making her 2020 debut, has finished in the Exacta in each of her last three starts, all against stakes competition.  Break Even, like Meadow Dance trained by Brad Cox, may have needed that last race off the five month layoff.

Heavens Whisper, daylight winner over this track in each of her two prior starts, seems capable of handling the rise in class.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - (F) The Apple Blossom (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 12 Go Google Yourself (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Come Dancing (ML 3-1)
# 11 Serengeti Empress (ML 4-1)
# 14 Ce Ce (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Ollie's Candy (ML 12-1)
# 2 Coldwater (ML 50-1)
# 3 Awe Emma (ML 20-1)
# 5 Point of Honor (ML 10-1)

# 6 Street Band (ML 15-1)
# 7 Queen Nekia (ML 20-1)

# 8 Saracosa (ML 30-1)
# 9 Horologist (ML 15-1)
# 10 Cookie Dough (ML 10-1)

# 13 Lady Apple (ML 15-1)

Go Google Yourself, winner of the Grade 3 Bayakoa over this track last time out, seems to be capable of handling the class rise.  Come Dancing appears to be most talented here; but Come Dancing may need more distance to show her best.

Serengeti Empress, winner of the Grade 2 Azeri over this track last time out, has been working well for this contest.  Ce Ce, open length winner of the Grade 1 Beholder Mile last time out, could be compromised by the far outside draw.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - Clm $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Degrom (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Kurilov (Chi) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Super Dude (ML 6-1)
# 10 Matrooh (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Timeline (ML 4-1)
# 3 Curlin Rules (ML 8-1)
# 4 Eisenstaedt (ML 10-1)
# 7 Spikes Shirl (ML 15-1)
# 9 Zero Gravity (ML 12-1)
# 11 Arrival (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hawaakom (ML 15-1)
# 13 Colonelsdarktemper (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 6 County Court (ML 30-1) and # 14 Hunka Burning Love (ML 12-1)

Degrom defeated classier foes two starts back.  Degrom goes first time for Trainer David Fawkes, who tends to do well with such.

Kurilov (Chi) could move up with the drop in class.  Super Dude defeated classier stock two starts back.  Matrooh won at this class level two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 1 with 12 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,9,10 with 1,5,6,8 with 4,11,12,14 with 2,5,8,10 $96.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,11 with 1 with 12 with 5 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,4,7,9,11,12 with 12 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,13 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1 with 12 with 1,3,4,7,9,11,12,13 $4.00

Total: $113.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 5:14 EDT / 2:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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