11/5/22 Keeneland All BC Pick Six - Results

Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 5 Tuesday (Ire) (Final Odds 4.19) - No Selection

Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 6 Elite Power (5.55) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Mile - # 4 Modern Games (Ire) (1.38*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 1 Malathaat (2.88) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 5 Rebel's Romance (Ire) (5.96) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 4 Flightline (0.44*) - "A" Selection

First things first: Flightline is that good.  Flightline is really that good.  Flightline is not just the horse of the year, he just may be the horse of the past twenty years.  Flightline is that good.

Moving onto other matters, specifically my bankroll, had I stuck with the Pick Four, I would have had it.  For those curious, the main Pick Four ticket would have cost twenty dollars; auxiliary tickets would have cost another eighteen dollars; so total outlay would have been thirty eight dollars.  The Pick Four paid $45.85, a profit of $6.85, or odds of 0.18-1.  So, while I may not have been right about much this weekend, at least I was right about about there being no value in playing the Pick Four.

Moving away from what might have been to what actually was, I had contemplated using # 11 In Italian (GB) (2.96) as a big ticket single in the opening leg.  I suspected, correctly, that In Italian would perform better Saturday than Morning Line (and Post Time) Favorite # 3 Nashwa (GB) (2.59*).  But I won't lie; BC F&M Turf winner Tuesday (Ire) was not on my radar.  Which was a serious whiff on my part.  Tuesday was making the move off the soft turf that she had run her two most recent races upon, onto the firm turf over which she competed Saturday; which is the exact type of move that see many of the European runners make significant improvement.  Something that I'll hopefully remember next year.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who correctly had all six of the All Breeders' Cup Pick Six sequence of  5 / 6 / 4 / 1 / 5 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $2,991.49 for their one dollar wager.  Those who correctly had five of the six winners received a payout of $43.24.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/5/22 Keeneland All BC Pick Six - Preview

"If you quit every time you face a new challenge, giving up can change how you view yourself.  You may begin to think you're weak or that you're a failure because you can't seem to stick with things long enough to see positive results." - Amy Morin

So I looked at my Pick Four plays, and they were chalk, chalk, and more chalk, with enough white dust floating around to have me hallucinating that I had been transported back to the '80s.  So rather than punching tickets with no promise of a decent payout, I figured why not take a shot at a bigger prize.  Yeah, I know that all these Favorites mean little chance of an eye-popping payout even in a Pick Six pool; but I see this as a challenge in and of itself.  And besides, sometimes you just have to take what the game is giving you.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Six at Keeneland.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 In Italian (GB) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Nashwa (ML 5-2)

# 4 Above the Curve (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Sorry, no real analysis today; just some notes.  And the first thing that I'll note is that, because this is a regular Pick Six, it won't be everybody into the pool today, with all non-A's & B's being used as C's.  Only some runners not on the main ticket will be used as backups.  In this leg, where I'm using three short priced entrants, there will be no "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Kimari (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 American Theorem (ML 10-1)
# 5 Aloha West (ML 12-1)

# 6 Elite Power (ML 6-1)

# 9 Jackie's Warrior (ML 4-5)

# 11 Flash of Mischief (ML 30-1)

Yes, I relegated Jackie's Warrior to a "C" Selection.  Yes, I know there's an excellent possibility that I will look very foolish after this race is run.  What can I can?  You only live once.

RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Regal Glory (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Shirl's Speight (ML 30-1)

# 4 Modern Games (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 11 Annapolis (ML 10-1)

# 13 Kinross (GB) (ML 9-2)

C's

# 3 Dreamloper (Ire) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 12 King Cause (ML 30-1) and # 16 Gear Jockey (ML 30-1)

Yeah, I really didn't have a handle on this one.  Fortunately, I'm using enough singles where, from a cost perspective, I can spread a bit here.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Malathaat (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Clairiere (ML 4-1)
# 6 Nest (ML 9-5)
# 7 Search Results (ML 9-2)

Just my opinion, of course, but whichever multi-race wager you're making, there's just no value if you don't single in this event.  So pick one among the well known contenders, and hope for the best.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 War Like Goddess (ML 9-2)

B's

# 5 Rebel's Romance (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 7 Nations Pride (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 11 Mishriff (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Stone Age (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Broome (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Channel Maker (ML 30-1)

Another grass race, another contest that I really don't have a handle on.  I'm beginning to notice a trend.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Flightline (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Taiba (ML 8-1)
# 2 Life Is Good (ML 6-1)

# 6 Epicenter (ML 5-1)

# 7 Olympiad (ML 10-1)
# 8 Rich Strike (ML 20-1)

Why all the "C" Selections?  Because I can still vividly recall the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic, when Shared Belief got mugged leaving the gate, allowing Bayern to go gate to wire to win.  So, you know, just in case.  But realistically, Flightline is much the best here.  In my opinion, of course.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$1.00 P6: 3,4,11 with 2 with 2,4,8,11,13 with 1 with 2,5,7,11 with 4 $60.00

A's with One C

$1.00 P6: 11 with 4,5,6,9,11 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $5.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 3 with 1 with 2 with 4 $1.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 4,6,7 with 2 with 4 $3.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 3,4,6 with 4 $3.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,6,7,8 $5.00

Total: $79.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 1:50 EST / 10:50 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/4/22 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 5 Wonder Wheel (Final Odds 6.50) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 10 Meditate (Ire) (2.04*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Juvenile - # 4 Forte (5.02) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 1 Victoria Road (Ire) (5.57) - "C" Selection

Needless to say, not getting my big ticket single home (# 3 Cave Rock (0.47*)) in the third leg was unfortunate.  However, in the overall scheme of things, not getting Cave Rock home proved to be a net positive; because, had Cave Rock won Race 9, my play would have lost due to my failure to find a spot for Victoria Road on my main ticket.

Big Favorites like Cave Rock don't always win, regardless of which sport we're talking about; such is the way these things go.  But errors such as not using an obvious contender at a good price like Victoria Road are the type of mistake that could leave you wondering if you've lost too much off your fastball to continue playing at the highest level.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Friday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.  I can also remain confident in the quality of my fastball, as the two legs which I missed did see my top "A" Selection run well enough to grab the Place.  And while Cave Rock's defeat was a blessing in disguise, I can hold onto the hope that, good Lord willing, I'll shortly be on the receiving end of a long string of blessings that aren't in disguise.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 10 / 4 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $449.83 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/4/22 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

“The past cannot be changed.  The future is yet in your power.” - Mary Pickford

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.

With that said, I really wanted to go after the all Breeders' Cup Pick Five today.  Unfortunately, I couldn't do anything with the opening leg of that sequence, Race 6, the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.  So it was either go "ALL" in that contest, which would have been a budget buster, or do a stab and pray, where I just randomly toss runners and hope for the best.

So with that leg amputated, leg's get to it, as I a take run at the Late Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 And Tell Me Nolies (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 5 Wonder Wheel (ML 5-1)

# 7 Chop Chop (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Vegas Magic (ML 30-1)

# 2 You're My Girl (ML 10-1)

# 4 Sabra Tuff (ML 30-1)
# 6 Alma Rosa ((ML 30-1)
# 8 Atomically (ML 12-1)
# 9 Grand Love (ML 20-1)
# 10 Chocolate Gelato (ML 7-2)

# 12 Shoplifter (ML 20-1)
# 13 Leave No Trace (ML 20-1)
# 14 Raging Sea (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 11 American Rockette (ML 20-1)

Just a head's up that these notes will be somewhat more truncated than usual.  As you can see, I'm against the Morning Line Favorite Chocolate Gelato.  And Tell Me Nolies will be a good early test to see if the Southern California form will transfer to Kentucky this weekend.  If it does, anything above 4-1 on And Tell Me Nolies will be an absolute gift.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Meditate (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Free Look (ML 5-1)

# 9 Delight (ML 6-1)

# 12 Midnight Mile (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 13 Xigera (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Comanche Country (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Cairo Consort (ML 12-1)

# 3 Last Call (ML 20-1)

# 5 Pleasant Passage (ML 12-1)
# 6 Be Your Best (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Spirit Gal (Fr) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Manhattan Jungle (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 14 Basil Martini (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 15 Bling (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 G Laurie (ML 12-1) and # 16 Alluring Angel (GB) (ML 20-1)

Meditate (Ire) has defeated tougher competition; but Free Look is well versed at the distance.  Delight already has a Win over this course.

Midnight Mile (Ire) loves to win at long odds.  Xigera might run away and hide from the rest of the field.  Hey, these are juvenile fillies on the grass; be prepared to be surprised.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Cave Rock (ML 4-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Hurricane J (ML 30-1)
# 2 Congruent (ML 30-1)
# 4 Forte (ML 4-1)
# 5 Verifying (ML 10-1)
# 6 Blazing Sevens (ML 6-1)

# 7 Wound Up (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lost Ark (ML 20-1)

# 9 Curly Jack (ML 20-1)
# 10 National Treasure (ML 8-1)

As opposed to the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I am very much prepared to not be surprised in this leg.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Silver Knott (GB) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Packs a Wahlop (ML 6-1)

# 8 I'm Very Busy (ML 9-2)

# 14 Gaslight Dancer (ML 30-1)

C's

# 1 Victoria Road (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Curly Larry and Mo (ML 30-1)

# 5 Battle of Normandy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Andthewinneris (ML 5-1)

# 7 Really Good (ML 30-1)
# 9 Nagirroc (ML 20-1)
# 10 Webslinger (ML 20-1)
# 11 Reckoning Force (ML 20-1)
# 12 Mo Stash (ML 20-1)
# 13 Major Dude (ML 10-1)

Gaslight Dancer could shock the world.  More likely, Gaslight Dancer could be leading the field heading into the stretch, only to run out of gas and finish last.  Such is horse racing.  But at big odds, it could be a fun ride.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 3 with 10 with 3 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 4,9,10,12,13 with 3 with 2,4,8,14 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,8,9,10,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 4 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,14,15 with 3 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 3 with 1,3,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 $5.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/7/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The BC Mile - # 15 Order of Australia (Ire) (Final Odds 73.20) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Distaff - # 10 Monomoy Girl (1.00*) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - The BC Turf - # 3 Tarnawa (Ire) (4.70) - "B" Selection

Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 9 Authentic (4.20) - "B" Selection

As it was on Day 1, so it was on Day 2: the opening leg of the sequence, the contest that I figured to be the most wide open, lived up to its billing; in this case being won by the longest shot on the board.  Speaking of which, congrats to Trainer Aidan O'Brien, who not only picks up his first win in the Breeders' Cup Mile, but who also conditioned the next two finishers in that event, for a Trifecta that paid $4,393.00 for a fifty cent wager.  As for my play: miss one, miss 'em all, it's all the same, as Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  15 / 10 / 3 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $4,556.15 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/7/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Waiting to develop courage is just another form of procrastination. The most successful people take action while they’re afraid." - Anonymous

Remember how I wrote here yesterday to have fun?  That order still stands, as we go into Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Kameko (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 6 Safe Voyage (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 10 Halladay (ML 12-1)

# 11 Ivar (Brz) (ML 4-1)

# 12 Uni (GB) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Circus Maximus (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 3 Lope Y Fernandez (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 4 Siskin (ML 15-1)

# 5 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Casa Creed (ML 20-1)
# 8 March to the Arch (ML 15-1)

# 13 Factor This (ML 8-1)
# 14 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 15 Order of Australia (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 9 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)

Kameko looks to be entering this event in fine form, and there should be enough pace in this field for Kameko to chase.  Safe Voyage (Ire) is well suited to the distance, and Safe Voyage could improve with a firmer surface.

Halladay projects to be forwardly placed early; and Halladay could get loose early should any of the other presumed pacesetters falter.  Ivar (Brz) won the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile over this course last time out.

Uni (GB) is the defending champ, having defeated the boys in the 2019 running of this contest.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Swiss Skydiver (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 Horologist (ML 8-1)

# 10 Monomoy Girl (ML 8-5)

C's

# 1 Ce Ce (ML 12-1)

# 2 Harvest Moon (ML 12-1)

# 3 Dunbar Road (ML 12-1)

# 6 Lady Kate (ML 15-1)

# 7 Point of Honor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Valiance (ML 12-1)

# 9 Ollie's Candy (ML 10-1)

The connections of Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver chose to run her here rather than in the Classic; and while I prefer Swiss Skydiver here, this contest doesn't project to be a walk in the park for her, as she has to have to contend with defending champ Monomoy Girl.  Again, I give the edge to Swiss Skydiver; but his one has the potential to be a memorable battle.

So with those two great runners in the field, why am I adding Horologist to my main ticket?  Good question.  It came down to my opinion that Horologist looks to be in top form, coupled with my opinion that Horologist projects to be well positioned to swoop in just in time should the top two contenders in the field run each other into exhaustion.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Magical (Ire) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Tarnawa (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 9 Channel Maker (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Arklow (ML 5-1)

# 4 Mehdaayih (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 5 Donjah (Ger) (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lord North (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 7 United (ML 8-1)

# 8 Red King (ML 20-1)

# 10 Mogul (GB) (ML 4-1)

Magical (Ire) could move up with a better trip and a firmer surface than that which he endured last time out.  Tarnawa (Ire) is another that could improve competing over a firmer sod.

Channel Maker projects to be the early pacesetter; and Channel Maker tends to run well at this distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Improbable (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Tiz the Law  (ML 3-1)

# 4 Tom's d' Etat (ML 6-1)

# 9 Authentic (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Tacitus (ML 20-1)

# 3 By My Standards (ML 10-1)

# 5 Title Ready (ML 30-1)

# 6 Higher Power (ML 20-1)

# 7 Global Campaign (ML 20-1)

# 10 Maximum Security (ML 7-2)

Improbable enters this even with a three race winning streak; and it appears that a repeat of any of those three outings would be good enough to get the job done today.  Authentic and Tiz the Law were one - two on the first Saturday in September, and both seem capable of handling the older competition in this field.

Tom's d'Etat, the last runner to defeat Improbable, could win with a repeat of his performance in the Stephen Foster two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 5 with 2 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,10,11,12 with 4,5,10 with 2,3,9 with 2,4,8,9 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,7,8,13,14,15 with 5 with 2 with 8 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,6,7,8,9 with 2 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 2 with 1,3,5,6,7,10 $3.00

Total: $105.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:15 EST / 12:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 7 Fire At Will (Final Odds 30.20) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 2 Vequist (6.60) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 5 Aunt Pearl (2.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Juvenile - # 5 Essential Quality (3.70) - "A" Selection

If it's possible to be right when you were wrong, that's how I feel about my assessment of the BC Juvenile Turf (Race 7).  In the preview I wrote that it was "as wide open as any such contest can be;" and I believe that opinion proved to be correct, as evidenced by the victor paying in excess of sixty dollars to Win.  Still, it's not enough to correctly assess the likelihood of there being an upset winner; you have to correctly predict which longshot runner will pull the upset.  I did not; and for that, and other reasons, Friday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 2 / 5 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $3,081.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success." - Albert Schweitzer

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 New Mandate (Ire) (Moring Line 12-1)

B's

# 5 Cadillac (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 6 Mutasaabeq (ML 5-1)

# 9 Battleground (ML 6-1)

# 11 Gretzky the Great (ML 8-1)
# 12 Go Athletico (Fr) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Sealiway (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Abarta (ML 12-1)

# 4 Public Sector (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Fire At Will (ML 12-1)
# 8 Outadore (ML 8-1)

# 10 Ebeko (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 13 Devilwala (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 14 The Lir Jet (Ire) (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Barrister Tom (ML 30-1) and # 16 Harlan Estate (ML 30-1)

This contest strikes me as being as wide open as any such contest can be.  While going "ALL" in a race with over a dozen leaving the gate was never a serious consideration, I did wonder if my bankroll might be better served by cutting back to a Pick Three for this sequence.  But what fun is that?

New Mandate (Ire) enters this event with a nice three race winning streak; and New Mandate seems well positioned to get first run at the leaders.  Cadillac (Ire) projects to be forwardly placed early; and Cadillac is a Group Stakes winner at eight furlongs.  Mutasaabeq proved that a deep closer can win over this turf course, as Mutasaabeq came from well off the pace last time out to win the Grade 2 Bourbon.

Battleground is undefeated with Ryan Moore on his back.  Gretzky the Great won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes for fun at Woodbine last time out.  Go Athletico (Fr) has yet to finish out of the Exacta in five career starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Simply Ravishing (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Dayoutoftheoffice (ML 5-2)

# 5 Girl Daddy (ML 6-1)

# 7 Princess Noor (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Vequist (ML 8-1)

# 4 Thoughtfully (ML 20-1)

# 6 Crazy Beautiful (ML 20-1)

Simply Ravishing, Dayoutoftheoffice, and Princess Noor are all undefeated in three career starts.  I give the edge to Simply Ravishing because Simply Ravishing already has a win over this main track at today's distance.

Girl Daddy, winner of the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs last time out, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Miss Amulet (Ire) (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Plum Ali (ML 4-1)

# 5 Aunt Pearl (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 8 Mother Earth (Ire) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Oodnadatta (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 3 Alda (ML 12-1)

# 6 Nazuna (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 9 Madone (ML 10-1)

# 10 Campanelle (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 11 Royal Approval (ML 10-1)

# 12 Spanish Loveaffair (ML 15-1)

# 13 Union Gables (ML 20-1)
# 14 Editor At Large (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 15 Invincible Gal (GB) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 7 Tetragonal (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Snowfall (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

Miss Amulet (Ire), a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed in the UK, looks classy enough to handle this field; and Miss Amulet's breeding suggests that she should do just fine with the distance.  Plum Ali, winner of the Grade 2 Miss Grillo last time out, could get first run at the leaders; while Aunt Pearl (Ire) projects to be among the pacesetters.

Mother Earth (Ire) could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Essential Quality (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Jackie's Warrior (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 Camp Hope (ML 30-1)
# 2 King Fury (ML 15-1)

# 3 Reinvestment Risk (ML 9-1)

# 4 Likeable (ML 15-1)

# 6 Keepmeinmind (ML 30-1)

# 8 Classier (ML 12-1)

# 9 Sitting On Go (ML 12-1)

# 10 Dreamer's Disease (ML 30-1)
# 11 Next (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hot Rod Charlie (ML 30-1)
# 13 Rombauer (ML 15-1)
# 14 Calibrate (ML 20-1)

Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Breeder's Futurity over this main track at today's distance last time out.  Jackie's Warrior enters this event with a perfect four-for-four record for his career, which includes three Graded Stakes wins.  The only question with Jackie's Warrior is how he'll handle going around two turns for the first time; but that's no small question.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,9,11,12 with 1,3,5,7 with 2,4,5,8 with 5,7 $96.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14 with 1 with 2 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,6 with 2 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1,3,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 with 5 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 $6.00

Total: $113.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:10 EST / 12:10 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2015 Breeders' Cup - Preview

It's just about Post Time for the Breeders' Cup; which, as regular readers already know, means that this blog is about to go dark.  Good Lord willing I will be spending the next few days at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson, NV, enjoying great service courtesy of Bert Cirincione, the Director of the Race and Sports Operations, along with the company of great friends.  I may be able to get a few Tweets out during that time; but I can virtually guarantee that, as usual, there just won't be enough time for a full blog post.

As regards advice, I recommend as always that you take advantage of the free resources offered on the internet.  Be sure to check out the usual spots that I link to in my Saturday morning tweets, as I'm sure that they will each be filled with Breeders' Cup insights.  I'll just mention a few here:

- Free DRF Formulator PPs for the Breeders' Cup Distaff as well as the Breeders' Cup Classic, along with video analysis by Dan Illman along with Mike Beer and/or Matt Bernier will be available at Drf.com's Race of the Day;

- Free Brisnet PPs for the Breeders' Cup races (along with a whole host of other contests) can be found by going to to this blog post and clicking the appropriate links by owner, trainer, or sire (for example, clicking the link for Trainer Graham Motion would lead you here, where you will find links for every race where a horse trained by Graham Motion is entered);

- If you're willing to divulge your email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free 2015 Breeders' Cup Wager Guide, a very fine piece of literature that offers some interesting tidbits as well as analysis and betting strategies from Steve Byk, Mike Battaglia, Bob Neumeier, and others;

- Candice Hare and Derbyologist host a Breeders' Cup Round Table discussion that's available here on You Tube, along with a Breeders' Cup preview that can be found here;

- Claire Novak, Ellis Starr, and Tom LaMarra preview the Breeders' Cup Classic on Blood-Horse's That Handicapping Show on You Tube.

As for me, I just have two bits of advice to offer.  The first is to remember that, because of the nature of the Breeders' Cup races, virtually every horse entered has a legitimate chance to win.  No one is prepping in these contests; all runners will be trying their best.  Therefore, don't be afraid to take a shot on a horse that hasn't been heavily touted, and pay close attention to those runners that are being ignored on the board.

My second, and more important piece of advice, is HAVE FUN!  The Breeders' Cup is the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; these are your days, carved out of the calendar just for you.  Enjoy them!  Because, quite frankly, if you're not having fun, why bother?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/20/13 Keeneland Park Late Pick Four - Results

Well, that was nice.  Yes, thanks be to God, that was nice, indeed.

We successfully managed to get our A's home in Races 7, 8, and 10; and while we didn't get the horse we loved the most on top in the featured 9th, we cashed anyway, as we had all the bases covered in that one.  For the record, the winners of the late Pick Four at Keeneland Saturday in order were:

RACE 7 - Awesome Flower (1.20)

RACE 8 - Sweet Cassiopeia (2.10)

RACE 9 - Winning Cause (6.80)

RACE 10 - Suyeta (1.70)

The winning sequence of  4 / 9 / 1 / 3 paid out $150.40 for a fifty cent wager.  So playing it the way I detailed in the preview meant that our initial investment of $19.50 yielded a profit of $130.90.  I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/20/13 Keeneland Park Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 3 Lexington, one of the "Wild Card" races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, will be run Saturday at Keeneland Park.  And while that promises to be a very competitive event, I think we can have some fun today on the cheap by putting in a Pick Four ticket that includes the feature race.

Taking them one at a time:

RACE 7

# 2 Queen of Mambo (Morning Line 7-2) has just missed at this level (Alw N1X) twice, losing by a neck in each of her last two races.  As that pair were two turns on the grass, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not her form will carry in today's contest, her first try on the synthetic.  

# 4 Awesome Flower (ML 3-1) won a Claiming Race (Clm $30K N2L) her last time out with a Beyer Speed Figure that's slightly better than par for this level of competition; her Beyer the race prior was even better.  

# 5 Clear Danger (ML 10-1) just missed at this level at this distance over this track back in October, three races back.  This will be her first start on a synthetic surface since that event.

RACE 8 - THE GIANT'S CAUSEWAY

# 2 Extravaganza (ML 5-1) comes off a win in the Happy Ticket Stakes at Fair Grounds with a Beyer that ties for best last-out in this field.  Extravaganza should do much better today than she did in this event last year.

# 5 Sensible Lady (ML 4-1) has multiple wins at this level, and has never finished out of the Trifecta in a turf sprint.  She's coming off a long layoff, but that didn't stop her last year as she won the first time off the bench after a greater than four month vacation.

# 9 Sweet Cassiopeia (ML 5-2) ties with Extravaganza for best last-out Beyer, having earned hers in an Allowance Race where she crossed the wire a neck in front of odds-on favorite Stopshoppingmaria.  Sweet Cassiopeai's Beyer was even better in her victory in the race before that one, which would prove to be a key race (that is, a race in which more than one of the entrants would go on to win their next race).  Sweet Cassiopeia has yet to finish out of the Exacta on the grass.

RACE 9 - THE LEXINGTON

# 11 Pure Fun (ML 7-2) is the girl taking on the boys.  More importantly, she's the Grade 1 winner in an event that has no other Graded Stakes winners.  She's much improved since moving off the grass, and that Grade 1 victory was earned on a synthetic surface.  

RACE 10

# 3 Suyeta (ML 3-1) drops back to a level more in line with his ability, after finishing fourth in a $20k Optional Claimer with a Beyer (81) that should be good enough to win this event today.  Suyeta is three-for-six on the Keeneland main track, two-for-three at today's distance, and will have Rosario on board for the ride.

# 9 Ghost Chapel (ML 5-1) won at this level last time out, but with a Beyer below par for this level.

I still think The Lexington is wide open; and the finale needs some spreading as well.  But I'm going to try to go cheap here, and see if I can get by with three singles as A's, and then go heavy on the C's.  Here's the Pick Four tickets that I'll be playing, beginning with the all A's:

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 3

Play that one for $2.50, and it'll cost you $5.00.

Now we mix in the C's, all on fifty cent tickets:

RACE 7: 5

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 3

Total Cost: $0.50

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 2, 5

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 3

Total Cost: $2.00

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

RACE 10: 3

Total Cost: $9.00

RACE 7: 2, 4

RACE 8: 9

RACE 9: 11

RACE 10: 2, 8, 9

Total Cost: $3.00

Total Cost of Pick Four Tickets: $19.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:11 EDT / 1:11 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/13/13 Keeneland Park - Results

Jeff G said it best in his comment to the previous post: 

"Almost a very good day...."

We begin with the two races that we analyzed but did not make part of our play.  Race 7 - The Shakertown saw # 5 Havelock (Final Odds 8.30) perform as if spurred on to prove my comments wrong, making a mad dash for the finish line to be up just in time in front of Place horse # 1 Something Extra (2.40) in a blanket finish.  How close was the field at the wire?  Fifth place finisher # 6 Next Question (6.40) was only a half length behind Havelock at the wire.  In an interview on NBC after the race, Havelock's Trainer Darrin Miller was effusive in his praise for Jockey Garrett Gomez's performance in this event; and rightly so, as Gomez demonstrated why he is one of the best (if not in fact the best) in the country on turf, finding the hole and hitting the wire just in time to grab the prize.

We decided that Race 8 - The Madison was the epitome of a chaos race, and it's fair to say that events proved us correct; as the winner was the second longest shot on the board, # 5 Last Full Measure (17.80), while the Post Time favorite. # 10 Fantasy of Flight (3.10), finished 8th, more than thirteen lengths back.  If you were sharp enough to work out the Superfecta of # 5 Last Full Measure / # 1 Byrama (4.70) / # 6 Jamaican Smoke (3.50) / # 8 Drama Drama (14.80) you were rewarded with a $481.29 payout for your ten cent wager.

Race 9 - The Jenny Wiley began our play in both the Pick Four and the Pick Three, and saw our lone "A" selection in the race, # 1 Centre Court (1.70) win by a comfortable two lengths over one of our two "C" selections, # 8 Daisy Devine (3.60).  For the record, the # 1 Centre Court / # 8 Daisy Devine Exacta was worth $12.30 for a one dollar wager.

Race 10 - The Blue Grass saw another of our "A" selections, # 4 Java's War (4.60) run his way into a berth in this year's Kentucky Derby, finishing a neck in front of # 5 Palace Malice (4.90).  I should note here that in my analysis I picked the wrong Kitten, as the Todd Pletcher trained # 8 Charming Kitten (22.20) took the Show, just a half length behind the winner; while the Kitten that I preferred, # 14 Fear the Kitten (36.40) ended up two slots further down the chart in fifth.

As the wagering opened for Race 11 it soon became clear that this may not be my day; as a horse that I had discussed and dismissed, # 2 Mezzano (2.10) was in the process of being bet down from a Morning Line of 10-1 to be the Post Time Favorite.  Sure enough, Mezzano would go on to win for fun, finishing a comfortable four and a half lengths ahead of one of our two "A" selections in the race, # 1 Dubious Miss (3.80), and leaving me wondering if I would be getting flowers the next day, or a dinner invite, or, at the very least, a phone call.

Race 12, the finale on the Keeneland card, saw another of our "A" selections finish first, as # 5 Liz Pendens (2.50) was able to cross the wire a nose in front of first time starter # 2 Allegheny Angel (13.80).

So there it is.  Our $0.50 Pick Three ticket ends up with two out of three winners, while our $1.00 Pick Four ticket hits on three of the four legs.  As you already know, both tickets paid the same amount.

Meanwhile, the correct Pick Three sequence in Races 9 - 11 of 1 / 4 / 2 paid $40.55 for a fifty cent wager, while the correct Pick Four sequence in Races 9 - 12 of 1 / 4 / 2 / 5 paid $203.15 for a fifty cent wager ($406.30 for a one dollar bet).  May God bless all those who had it.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/13/13 Keeneland Park - The Play

For those who missed it, the analysis is in the earlier post below.  I've decided to take a swing at the late Pick 4, using some A's and C's.  I'll also be putting some money towards the Pick 3 of Races 9 - 11.  Here's the play I decided to make:

First, the Pick 4 of all A's:

RACE 9: 1

RACE 10: 4, 7

RACE 11: 1, 7

RACE 12: 1, 5, 8

Play that one for a buck, making the total cost $12.

Now we mix in the C's, all on fifty cent tickets:

RACE 9: 3, 8

RACE 10: 4, 7

RACE 11: 1, 7

RACE 12: 1, 5, 8

Total Cost: $12

RACE 9: 1

RACE 10: 10, 13, 14

RACE 11: 1, 7

RACE 12: 1, 5, 8

Total Cost: $9

RACE 9: 1

RACE 10: 4, 7

RACE 11: 1, 7

RACE 12: 6, 10

Total Cost: $4

Total Cost of Pick 4 Tickets: $37

For the Pick 3, we'll just take all our contenders for Races 9 - 11 and put them all together on one fifty cent ticket:

RACE 9: 1, 3, 8

RACE 10: 4, 7, 10, 13, 14

RACE 11: 1, 7

Total Cost: $15

So the whole shebang will run you fifty-two dollars.

Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

4/13/13 Keeneland Park - Preview

Saturday is Blue Grass Day at Keeneland Park, which is using that Kentucky Derby prep race at the centerpiece of a card chock full of competitive stakes, along with a wide array of multi-race wagers, including two fifty cent Pick Fives and three fifty cent Pick Fours.  Below I'll give some brief thoughts on the latter half of the card, beginning with Race 7, the Grade 3 Shakertown, which kicks off an all Graded Stakes Pick Four.

RACE 7 - The Shakertown

# 1 Something Extra (Morning Line 9-2) posted a 101 Beyer Speed Figure his last time out, taking the Place in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, which was run at a distance of five furlongs.  Prior to that race, the last time Something Extra ran in a turf sprint he posted a 102 Beyer while winning the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes at Woodbine.  If Something Extra repeats either of those performances today, he should find himself getting his picture taken after the race.

# 8 Perfect Officer (ML 3-1) will be making his first start of 2013 in this race; but note that was also the case when he won last year's running of this event  Also note that his trainer, Tony Dutrow, shows a .27 Winning Percentage with horses returning to the track after a layoff of over 180 days.  

# 2 Hogy (ML 8-1) was showing a pattern of steadily increasing Beyers (89, 92, 94) in turf sprints beginning in Summer 2012, when his connections decided to move him onto the main dirt track at Hawthorne.  Hogy held his form well in those two races; if he can continue to improve on his prior turf efforts he will be competitive in this one, despite the jump in class.

# 5 Havelock (ML 4-1) has a good deal of back-class, and is two-for-three on the Keeneland grass; add in the presence of Garrett Gomez in the saddle, and there's a lot to like here.  But I'll be taking a stand against Havelock today, as I'm not impressed with his performances in 2012 when returning from vacation, nor am I enamoured with conditioner Darrin Miller's .08 Winning Percentage when bringing a horse back from a two-to-six month layoff.  It's also worth mentioning that Havelock hasn't won a turf sprint since October, 2011.

# 7 Regally Ready (ML 4-1) is another horse that I'll be playing against today.  While there's no complaints with trainer Steve Asmussen's .23 Winning Percentage when running a entrant off a greater than six month absence, Regally Ready just hasn't been the same horse since taking the show in the 2012 Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita, failing to finish in the money in any of his turf sprints since that event.

RACE 8 - The Madison

In addition to being the second leg of the all-stakes Pick Four, Race 8 also kicks off the late $0.50 Pick Five.  Race 8 is also the reason why I do not expect to be making a serious wager in either of those bets.  

Race 8 is The Madison, a Grade 1 Stakes, but Grade 1 in name only.  Not only do none of the entrants show a Grade 1 victory in their Past Performances (ten races back) only one of the contestants, # 10 Fantasy of Flight (ML 7-2) shows even an entry into a Grade 1 event (The Humana Distaff Stakes, a race in which Fantasy of Flight ran 9th, beaten by over twenty-three lengths).  Only one entrant in today's contest shows a victory in a Grade 2 Stakes, Holiday for Kitten (ML 9-2), who won the Turf Amazon Handicap over this track back in October of 2011.  In my humble opinion this race is the very definition of a chaos race, and I can't see including this contest in a serious multi-race wager without hitting the "All" button.

If you're just looking for an action play here, I could recommend # 6 Jamaican Smoke (ML 5-1) who was victorious his only time competing on this surface, and projects to be the speed of the speed.

RACE 9 - The Jenny Wiley

Race 9 begins the final Pick Four on Saturday's card.

# 1 Centre Court (ML 5-2) has finished in the Exacta in every race of her career, excepting her debut (which, not so coincidentally, was also her only race not on the grass).  She appears to be a standout in this one, with the only blemish being the fact that she has yet to win at this track, taking the Place both times that she's competed on the Keeneland turf.

# 3 Better Lucky (ML 5-1) comes off her stunning upset in the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes at Hollywood Park last November in which she paid $72.20 to Win while topping a Trifecta that paid over three thousand dollars for a buck.  Better Lucky finished behind Centre Court in her three races prior to The Matriarch; and while there's the possibility Better Lucky may upset today, you can be sure she won't be going to Post at 30-1.

# 8 Daisy Devine (ML 4-1) won this event last year by wiring the field, and projects again to be the one in front for at least most of the early going.  Combine that with her perfect five-for-five record in turf contests at this distance, along with being two-for-three (with one second) when competing on the Keeneland grass, and you must count her among the contenders.  The Trainer Stats for her conditioner, Andrew McKeever (.29 Winning Percentage in Graded Stakes; .28 WP in Routes; .29 WP with horses returning between 31-60 days) just add to the appeal.  However, Jockey James Graham has been having great difficulty finding the Winner's Circle so far this meet; which, if not a red flag, certainly suggests caution.

RACE 10 - The Blue Grass

# 4 Java's War (ML 4-1) has the best last time out Beyer Speed Figure in this field (96, which also ties for the best career Beyer among this bunch), earned while taking the Place behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby.  Java's War was sired by War Pass, who had a brilliant though brief career, and then died so tragically young.

# 7 Uncaptured (ML 7-2) is the other possessor of the best career Beyer in this field; and, unlike Java's War, earned that number while running over a synthetic surface.  Uncaptured is four-for-six lifetime on the plastic, and showed a lot of heart while winning his stretch duel against Frac Daddy in last year's Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.  Worth remembering if Uncaptured wins today and finds himself running for the roses on May 4 is that he is two-for-two lifetime on the Churchill Downs main track, and is sired by Lion Heart, the horse who took the Place behind Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

# 10 Footbridge (ML 20-1) broke his maiden his last time out, after having finished a neck behind Govenor Charlie (winner of the Sunland Derby) in his prior attempt.  Footbridge owns the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance (397) in this field, and is sired by Street Cry (Ire), which suggests that Footbridge should handle the make-believe dirt quite nicely.

# 13 Rydilluc (ML 4-1) is undefeated in his last three races, and his Beyers have shown steady improvement.  But all those races have been on grass; this will be his first try on the synthetics, and there's no guarantee that he'll keep his form with the change in surface.  Also note that Trainer Gary Contessa is winless  when running horses on the plastic the last couple of years, albeit in a very small sample size.

# 8 Charming Kitten (ML 10-1) is one of two Todd Pletcher trained entrants in this event, and for that reason alone will garner a good deal of attention.  But the Kitten's Joy child I'll be watching is # 14 Fear the Kitten (ML 30-1).  Fear the Kitten already has a win over this track, and the presence of Dynaformer as Damsire suggests a natural inclination for this unnatural surface.  Trainer Michael Maker wins about a quarter of the time he runs a horse on the synthetics, and also shows a positive ROI in his Graded Stakes attempts.  If any horse in this field is going to blow up the tote board, my hunch is that this will be the one.

RACE 11

# 1 Dubious Miss (ML 5-2) gets some much needed class relief, having finished third against stakes company two back while taking the Place against N3X competition the race prior to that.  Dubious Miss is three-for-four over the Keeneland main track, and four-for-eight (with two seconds) in her career on all synthetic surfaces.

# 7 Chalice (ML 5-1) took the Place his last time out against this level, finishing behind Whatthecatdrugin, who came back to win his next time out.  Chalice's Beyers his last three times out, all on synthetic surfaces, show a slight steady increase (87, 88, 91) suggesting consistency.  His conditioner, Kellyn Gorder, has impeccable stats in all the key angles (Synth: 22%, $2.03 ROI; 31-60 Days: 25%, $2.67 ROI; Routes: 27%, $1.99 ROI; Claim: 35%, $2.13 ROI; Allowance: 20%, $2.29 ROI).  

# 2 Mezzano (ML 10-1) has taken the Place his last two times out at this level, just missing in a photo finish his last time out.  This will be Mezzano's first time on the synthetic, and there's little in his pedigree, or in Trainer Alan Goldberg's recent record, to suggest that he'll take to the surface.

# 9 Working for Hops (ML 4-1) shares with Chalice the honor of having the best last out Beyer.  But while Chalice earned his figure on a synthetic main track, Working for Hops ran his race on the turf; the surface to which Working for Hops seems much better suited.  Note that the last two times Working for Hops raced on the plastic he posted Beyers of 79 and 82; figures which will not get him in the money against this field today.

RACE 12

# 1 Rafaelini (ML 5-1) # 5 Liz Pendens (ML 4-1) and # 8 Taylor Street (ML 10-1) have all posted Beyer Speed Figures of 70 or better in races run over a firm turf course at a distance of at least eight furlongs.  # 6 Abbey Street (ML 9-2), after failing four times in turf sprints, makes her first start at a distance greater than a mile; her breeding suggests that she's better suited to turf routes rather than sprints.  # 10 English Holiday (ML 15-1) is the most intriguing entrant in the field, having debuted against stakes company back in September, and not competing since.  

I haven't yet decided how I'll play this lot, other than choosing to lay off the Pick Five and the all-stakes Pick 4.  I may do something with that final Pick 4; though I may just focus on the Pick 3 with Races 9 - 11.  Once I do make my play, I'll be sure to post it here.  Until then, hopefully you'll find something in the above that will help you make your selections.

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Horse Watch Follow-Up - Applauding

Having written about the three year old filly Applauding on this blog back in July and then again in September, I don't think I need to repeat her whole story again.  However, I do want to report the good news that she is back in training, having breezed four furlongs at Keeneland on Columbus Day (16/28) and then again earlier today, October 14 (19/34).

I still have no idea what caused the one month break in her workout pattern.  Maybe she was injured; or maybe she needed the rest; or maybe Trainer Al Stall didn't like the way she was performing on the track.  Or maybe she just doesn't like working out on Saturdays, and prefers Sundays and Holidays instead.  The bottom line is that she is working over the track again, and that is good news for me and all other racing fans who would like to see this Florida bred return to action and (hopefully) once again demonstrate the form and potential that she showed as a two year old.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Applauding Works Three Furlongs At Keeneland

Last Fall, Applauding created quite a stir when, as a two year old filly, she set a new track record for six furlongs at Keeneland in her debut; defeating, among others, Sacristy, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes.  Applauding was also victorious in her second career start at Fair Grounds, winning by six furlongs; thus proving that she could win on real dirt as well as the fake stuff.


And then came the scratches.  She was removed from the Silverbulletday Stakes in January (where she was the 4-5 Morning Line favorite) when she experienced colic-like symptoms the morning of the race.  Applauding was then scratched from the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February (where she was again the Morning Line favorite) when Trainer Al Stall saw something he didn't like in her workout earlier that week.


Since then, Applauding has just been hanging out at Claiborne Farm in Kentucky.  Quoting Trainer Al Stall:

“There’s nothing really wrong with her,” Stall said. “There was nothing bony, nothing to speak of. We’re going to regroup on her in 30 days, and by that time, I’ll get up to Kentucky, so I can get out and look at her. She was eating everything in sight down here, but I had trouble with her weight.”

And that's been it from Applauding; that is, until Saturday, when she breezed three furlongs at Keeneland in 38 1/5 (22/28).  


Does this mean that Applauding is back?  Well, working three furlongs is a long way from being entered in an actual race; and even if Applauding should make it back to the starting gate, there's no guarantee that she'll show her old form.  But I've got to admit, I really like the idea that I might get to see this horse show her stuff on the track one more time.

Peace and Love,


Jimbo