11/4/22 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

“The past cannot be changed.  The future is yet in your power.” - Mary Pickford

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.

With that said, I really wanted to go after the all Breeders' Cup Pick Five today.  Unfortunately, I couldn't do anything with the opening leg of that sequence, Race 6, the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.  So it was either go "ALL" in that contest, which would have been a budget buster, or do a stab and pray, where I just randomly toss runners and hope for the best.

So with that leg amputated, leg's get to it, as I a take run at the Late Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 And Tell Me Nolies (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 5 Wonder Wheel (ML 5-1)

# 7 Chop Chop (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Vegas Magic (ML 30-1)

# 2 You're My Girl (ML 10-1)

# 4 Sabra Tuff (ML 30-1)
# 6 Alma Rosa ((ML 30-1)
# 8 Atomically (ML 12-1)
# 9 Grand Love (ML 20-1)
# 10 Chocolate Gelato (ML 7-2)

# 12 Shoplifter (ML 20-1)
# 13 Leave No Trace (ML 20-1)
# 14 Raging Sea (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 11 American Rockette (ML 20-1)

Just a head's up that these notes will be somewhat more truncated than usual.  As you can see, I'm against the Morning Line Favorite Chocolate Gelato.  And Tell Me Nolies will be a good early test to see if the Southern California form will transfer to Kentucky this weekend.  If it does, anything above 4-1 on And Tell Me Nolies will be an absolute gift.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Meditate (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Free Look (ML 5-1)

# 9 Delight (ML 6-1)

# 12 Midnight Mile (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 13 Xigera (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Comanche Country (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Cairo Consort (ML 12-1)

# 3 Last Call (ML 20-1)

# 5 Pleasant Passage (ML 12-1)
# 6 Be Your Best (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Spirit Gal (Fr) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Manhattan Jungle (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 14 Basil Martini (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 15 Bling (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 G Laurie (ML 12-1) and # 16 Alluring Angel (GB) (ML 20-1)

Meditate (Ire) has defeated tougher competition; but Free Look is well versed at the distance.  Delight already has a Win over this course.

Midnight Mile (Ire) loves to win at long odds.  Xigera might run away and hide from the rest of the field.  Hey, these are juvenile fillies on the grass; be prepared to be surprised.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Cave Rock (ML 4-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Hurricane J (ML 30-1)
# 2 Congruent (ML 30-1)
# 4 Forte (ML 4-1)
# 5 Verifying (ML 10-1)
# 6 Blazing Sevens (ML 6-1)

# 7 Wound Up (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lost Ark (ML 20-1)

# 9 Curly Jack (ML 20-1)
# 10 National Treasure (ML 8-1)

As opposed to the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I am very much prepared to not be surprised in this leg.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Silver Knott (GB) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Packs a Wahlop (ML 6-1)

# 8 I'm Very Busy (ML 9-2)

# 14 Gaslight Dancer (ML 30-1)

C's

# 1 Victoria Road (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Curly Larry and Mo (ML 30-1)

# 5 Battle of Normandy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Andthewinneris (ML 5-1)

# 7 Really Good (ML 30-1)
# 9 Nagirroc (ML 20-1)
# 10 Webslinger (ML 20-1)
# 11 Reckoning Force (ML 20-1)
# 12 Mo Stash (ML 20-1)
# 13 Major Dude (ML 10-1)

Gaslight Dancer could shock the world.  More likely, Gaslight Dancer could be leading the field heading into the stretch, only to run out of gas and finish last.  Such is horse racing.  But at big odds, it could be a fun ride.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 3 with 10 with 3 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 4,9,10,12,13 with 3 with 2,4,8,14 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,8,9,10,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 4 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,14,15 with 3 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 4 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 10 with 3 with 1,3,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 $5.00

Total: $51.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo