11/19/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"The most successful detectives owe their success to noticing small signs.  Scouts are natural detectives and never let the smallest detail escape them.  These small things are called by Scouts 'Sign.'" - Robert Baden-Powell

Saturday's Del Mar card has a pair of stakes that, to put it kindly, did not draw well.  I probably should have looked elsewhere for horse racing action today rather than towards what SoCal is offering.  But I ultimately decided to stick with the Del Mar Final Four despite the low number of entries.  After all, it's not just the outdoor temperatures that have been cold here of late; so perhaps deciphering a sequence with fewer runners will help me get back on track.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Desi Arnaz $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Justique (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Parody (ML 4-1)
# 4 Huntingcoco (ML 7-2)

These are juvenile fillies, so it would not be jaw dropping if one or more in this field experienced a growth spurt since their last outing.  I see no value in going more than one deep in this leg; so don't interpret my using Justique as a big ticket single means that I'm of the opinion that Justique is much the best in this field.  Far from it; I anticipate this to be a well contested event.  But doubling (or trebling) the cost of the main ticket strikes me as a poor strategical move.  So it's Justique solo on the big ticket; with a couple of possible prices tossed in as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Six Magpies (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 6 Irish Prophet (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 One More Bid (ML 3-1)
# 2 Tokamak (ML 15-1)

# 3 Quintecents (ML 5-2)

# 7 Dancing Rinca (ML 6-1)

# 8 One Time Mark (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Lord Sheldon (ML 12-1)

Another race that I expect to be well contested.  Part of the problem in sorting out this contest is that the clear "best" horse in this field, One More Bid, often seems quite content to settle for second instead of taking the top prize.  Indeed, One More Bid has taken the Place in more than half of his seven career starts.  Which is nice if you're engaged in Quinella wagering; but not so nice if you're searching for a winner at profitable odds.

Six Magpies (Ire) gains the services of Jockey Flavien Prat for this, his North American debut and second career start.  Juan Hernandez, no slouch himself when it comes to turf riding, will be onboard Irish Prophet, who returns to the Maiden ranks after taking a crack at OC/N1X company.  Those two appear to offer the best value here; but, as you can tell by my use of the "ALL" button, I see this one as anybody's race.

RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Big City Lights (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 6 None Above the Law (ML 5-2)

   

Scratch # 1 Finneus (ML 15-1) and # 3 Surfing Star (No Line)

Wow.  Scratched down to a field of four.  Not much to do with this contest.  # 5 The Chosen Vron (ML 1-1) will almost certainly leave the gate as a very short priced Favorite.  But maybe Big City Lights can run 'em off their feet and get to the line before The Chosen Vron can get into top gear.  Could happen.  I'll also toss in None Above the Law as a backup "C" Selection, since None Above the Law could get a good run at the pace before 'Vron gets rolling.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Kitty Kitana (GB) (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Lady Clementine (GB) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Emerald Lake (ML 12-1)

C's

# 8 Founder's Day (ML 12-1)

# 11 Over Attracted (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Gimme Mo Baby (ML 6-1); but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 12 Lady Jae (ML 6-1) and # 13 Dramatizer (ML 8-1), as they are scratched as well.

Kitty Kitana (GB), trained by Phil D'Amato, took the Show in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss at Santa Anita last time out.  A strong case could be made for making Kitty Kitana a big ticket single; but I decided not to because I think that the added half-furlong between that contest and today's event works to Kitty Kitana's detriment.

Lady Clementine (GB), who pretty much just went through the motions while being outclassed in her last two starts, could improve with a return to Del Mar and the return of Lasix to her bloodstream.  Emerald Lake, trained by Peter Miller, seems to prefer the California grass found at Del Mar over that which grows at Santa Anita.  The two backup "C" Selections are prices that could steal this one on the front end.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 4 with 5 $5.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1 with ALL with 4 with 2,5,6 $10.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 5,6 with 4 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 6 with 5 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 4 with 8,11 $2.00

Total: $20.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:59 EST / 2:59 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo