"To become a better you, remember to be grateful to people who have contributed to making you who you are today." - Israelmore Ayivor
It's Thanksgiving Weekend across the USA, so please allow me to take a moment to use the occasion to thank all of you for your support through the years. Your encouragement, your feedback; even just the act of taking the time to come here to read what I have to say is very much appreciated. Thank you all!
The featured race Saturday in Southern California is the Grade 2 Seabiscuit; part of Del Mar's Turf Festival that is incorporated into their Fall Meeting. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Spun Intended (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 2 Barnstorming (ML 5-1)
# 5 Johannes (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Smoose (ML 20-1)
# 7 Texthelegend (ML 12-1)
# 8 Tall Boy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Tall Boy (ML 12-1)
# 9 Harlocap (ML 3-1)
Spun Intended took the Place in his debut last time, just a half length back of the winner at the wire. A strong case could be made off that effort for making Spun Intended a big ticket single; and, at the end of the day, I may be regretting not having done so. But runners trained by Mark Glatt often don't move forward in their second career start; so, for that reason, I thought it best to do a little spreading.
Barnstorming, one of five first time starters in this field, looks best among those making their debuts. Johannes took the Show last time out, in the same contest that Spun Intended was taking the Place. While making up the two and a half lengths Spun Intended had on him in that race will be no small feat, Johannes did a significant part of the heavy lifting in that contest, pressing the pacesetter through the early going. For that reason, I think that Johannes deserves consideration here.
RACE 7 - The Seabiscuit (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Set Piece (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 3 Hong Kong Harry (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Irideo (Arg) (ML 10-1)
# 9 Kentucky Ghost (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Santin (ML 3-1)
# 2 Masteroffoxhounds (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 6 Lincoln Hawk (Ire) (ML 20-1)
I see lots and lots of early speed in this race, coming from nearly half the field: # 1 Santin; # 2 Masteroffoxhounds; # 4 Smooth Like Strait; and # 5 Beyond Brilliant. Those four should produce some early fractions of epic proportions; which (I hope) will lead in turn to an epic pace meltdown.
I'll use two of those four as backup "C" Selections; I'll take a one dollar just in case flyer. But as far as the main ticket goes, I'm looking towards those entrants who will be charging though the home stretch while dodging the tiring early leaders. Set Piece (GB) seems to me to be the best of those who will be doing their best running late. So Set Piece gets the top spot, while the other closers get slotted in as "B" Selections.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 City Rage (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Liberty Forever (ML 5-1)
# 6 Finally Here (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Hopkins (ML 9-5)
# 8 Augusta Melody (ML 8-1)
The Brisnet Past Performances that I am using have this labeled as a N2X. That's an obvious typo, as can be seen by reading the full conditions; or even just by looking at the $40k Claiming price. Speaking of which, note that # 4 City Rage is the only one in this field that is in for a tag.
Moving on to other matters, I'm playing against the Baffert runner (and Morning Line Favorite) Hopkins. It took Hopkins three tries to graduate, and not until near the end of his four year old season. The worst of Hopkins three prior starts was the only one of the three at today's distance of six furlongs, as well as the only one of his three races run on the Del Mar main track. In my humble opinion Hopkins will be one to watch when he goes around two turns; but, for me today, Hopkins is just a backup "C" Selection (a fifty cent investment).
RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Aligato (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Percolate (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 9 Tio Magico (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Fly the Sky (ML 12-1)
# 6 Dominant Soul (ML 30-1)
# 7 Hawk of War (ML 4-1)
# 7 Hawk of War (ML 4-1)
# 10 Seven Wonders (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 11 Hockey Dad (ML 8-1)
Was this not Aligato's first race against a field that includes non-California bred runners, I would probably make Aligato a big ticket single. But since this is Aligato's first race outside the state bred only ranks, I decided that a little spread was called for.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 4 with 8 with 4 with 5 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5 with 3,7,8,9 with 2,4,6 with 2,5,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7,8,9 with 8 with 4 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2 with 4 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 8 with 7,8 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 8 with 4 with 1,6,7,10 $2.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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