5/6/23 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 14 Webslinger (Final Odds 22.67) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The Churchill Downs presented by Ford - # 7 Cody's Wish (0.72) - "A" Selection

Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 5 Up to the Mark (2.63) - "B+" Selection

Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 8 Mage (15.21) - "B+" Selection

For yet another example of why I consider backup tickets to be so important, had I made # 14 Webslinger a "C+" Selection rather than a "C" in the American Turf, I would have collected Saturday, rather than contributing.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  14 / 7 / 5 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,318.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/6/23 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

“Anyone who isn’t confused really doesn’t understand the situation.” - Edward R. Murrow

I think I can safely say without fear of contradiction that 2023 has had the wildest week leading into the Kentucky Derby of this century; perhaps in my lifetime.  From the suspension of Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. to the race day scratch of Morning Line Favorite # 15 Forte (ML 3-1) there has been a lot happening in Louisville, KY these past few days.

Since pretty much all the prep work I did earlier this week had to be tossed and re-done, there really isn't time for typing out a full analysis of each leg.  I'll simply point out that, like 99.44% of those playing this Pick Four pool, # 7 Cody's Wish (ML 4-5) in Race 10, the Grade 1 Churchill Downs, is my big ticket single.  In the next leg, Race 11, the Grade 1 Turf Classic, I punched the "ALL" button, because I don't have a clue what's going on in that race.

So with that I give you here my Selections, in beautiful living color:

And here, using a variation of the Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 7 with 9 with 22 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 7 with 5,9 with 8,14,22 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5,8,11 with 7 with ALL with 5,6,8,14,17,22 $96.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 5,9 with 8,14,22 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 5,6 with 5,9 with 8,14,22 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 5,9 with 1,3 $2.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7,13,14 with 7 with 9 with 22 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10,11 with 9 with 22 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 9 with 2,4,7,11,12,13,16,18,21,23 $5.00

Total: $121.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/5/23 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Unbridled Sidney - # 11 Caravel (Final Odds 0.74*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - The La Troienne - # 1 Played Hard (8.93) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The Edgewood - # 8 Heavenly Sunday (9.68) - "C+" Selection

Race 11 - The Kentucky Oaks - # 14 Pretty Mischievous (10.37) - "C" Selection

Certainly getting only one runner home on my primary ticket was not my goal when I handicapped Friday's card.  But two other runners on my primary ticket, # 4 Secret Oath (1.68*) in the La Troienne, and # 11 Revalita (Fr) (8.51) in the Edgewood, both took the Place in their respective races, with their combined margin of defeat being approximately a single length.  But truth be told, even if luck had broken my way in the those  two contests, I still would have failed to collect Friday, because I had no clue with regards to the Kentucky Oaks.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Oaks Pick Four sequence of  11 / 1 / 8 / 14 were rewarded with a payout of $543.81 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/5/23 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Four - Preview

“The heart of human excellence often begins to beat when you discover a pursuit that absorbs you, frees you, challenges you, or gives you a sense of meaning, joy, or passion.” - Terry Orlick

Kentucky Derby weekend is now upon us, the seemingly one and only time every year when your non-horse playing friends actually listen  to what you have to say.  As is traditional, Friday will see the best three year old fillies in the land compete for top honors in Louisville, Kentucky, in the featured race on a card chock full of stakes for distaff runners.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four sequence ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

RACE 8 - (F) The Unbridled Sidney $300k - Five an a Half Furlongs Turf

Scratch # 10 Love of My Heart (Morning Line 30-1) and # 12 Quaria Comet (ML 20-1)

So what do you do when you like the 4-5 Morning Line Favorite but not enough to make her a big ticket single?  Do you relegate her to backup ticket status?  Or do you take the value hit, knowing that including her with others on you main ticket increases costs much more than it adds value?

These are the questions that I need to answer regarding # 11 Caravel.  I won't bore you with all the pros and cons of using versus dropping (not so much because I'm afraid of boring you, but mainly because I don't feel like doing all that typing) but instead I'll just cut to the chase and say that I'll be using Caravel with others on my main ticket.  I justify my decision with my belief that the sequence will pay more than it should even should it chalk out, because of the large dollar amount wagered into the pools on days such as today.

RACE 9 - (F) The La Troienne (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

I chose to play against the Morning Line Favorite in this contest, the D Wayne Lukas trained # 4 Secret Oath (ML 3-1).  Well, not totally against, as Secret Oath will be on a backup ticket.  I've done likewise with the short priced (at least, on the Morning Line) # 7 Society (ML 4-1).  Nothing against either four year old filly; I just think that # 2 Search Results (ML 4-1) is clearly better than the above named pair.

I also decided to add the Todd Pletcher trained # 6 Classy Edition (ML 8-1) to my main ticket, because I believe that Classy Edition's two prior efforts this year demonstrate that she's ready to make this step up in company; and if I'm correct, then it will be a long, long time before you see a price as nice as 8-1 again on Classy Edition.

RACE 10 - (F) The Edgewood (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

I was very much tempted to go ALL in this contest, as I see this as a very competitive event.  A conviction underlining my opinion is that I believe that the three fillies in this field that ran in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride (# 3 Cairo Contest (ML 3-1); # 9 Papilio (ML 7-2); and # 11 Revalita (Fr) (ML 5-1) back in March at Gulfstream Park are all worthy contenders; with Revalita, the fourth place finisher in that race, perhaps most likely to take the next step forward.

Were I to think less of those exiting the Herecomesthebride, this would be a much easier race to handicap (not to mention making this a much less expensive play).  Ultimately I decided to split the baby and use approximately half the field.

RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Taxed (ML 20-1); # 16 Julia Shining (ML 15-1); and # 17 Hoosier Philly

I didn't make # 7 Wet Paint (ML 5-2) a big ticket single in my play.  Long story short, I found the high odds on several others in this field to be a temptation that I could not resist.  Actually, the real test of my ability to show personal restraint in the face of tempting odds will manifest itself later today it comes time to make my intra-race wagers on this event.

Okay; that's the analysis.  Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	11,		1,8		4,6
LEG 2	2,		6	4,9	1,3,5,7,8,10
LEG 3	11,		3,6,7,9	2,8,10	1,4,5
LEG 4	11,	7,	4	8,10	1,2,3,5,6,9,12,13,14

And here, using a variation of the Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 7,11 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,8,11 with 2,6 with 3,6,7,9,11 with 4,7,11 $45.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 11 with 4,9 with 11 with 7,11 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 2,8,10 with 7,11 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 8,10 $1.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2 with 11 with 11 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 1,3,5,7,8,10 with 11 with 11 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 1,4,5 with 11 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 1,2,3,5,6,9,12,13,14 $4.50

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 3:03 EDT / 12:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/7/22 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 9 Stolen Base (Final Odds 5.60) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The Churchill Downs - # 3 Jackie's Warrior (1.00*) - "A" Selection

Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 10 Santin (7.10) - "B" Selection

Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 21 Rich Strike (80.80) - "C" Selection

So a horse with only one career victory, a horse that had lost twice to Tiz the Bomb, switched surfaces and managed to pull off a huge victory Saturday.  Well, yes; of course.  In fact, you can see that horse's name above, Stolen Base, because I had him on my main ticket in the opening leg.  Unfortunately, my main ticket did not contain the OTHER horse with only one career victory, that had lost twice to Tiz the Bomb, that switched surfaces and pulled off a huge victory Saturday.

Oh well, onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the last leg of the sequence:

# 1 Mo Donnegal (10.10) - $919.25 Finish: 5th

# 9 Tiz the Bomb (31.00) - $4,795.10 Finish: 9th

# 10 Zandon (6.10) - $540.75 Finish: 3rd

# 12 Taiba (5.80) - $472.00 Finish: 12th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  9 / 3 / 10 / 21  were rewarded with a payout of $25,834.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/7/22 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"When you have exhausted all possibilities, remember this: you haven’t." - Thomas A. Edison

Here we are, the first Saturday in May, the day when many Americans will be watching their one allotted horse race for the year.  That one race, of course, is the Kentucky Derby, the event for which virtually every talented North American three year old thoroughbred has been training almost since birth.  Okay, that's enough buildup; let's get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Balnikhov (Ire) (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 2 Main Event (ML 5-1)

# 6 Portfolio Company (ML 9-2)

# 7 Sy Dog (ML 7-2)

# 9 Stolen Base (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Smokin' T (ML 15-1)

# 3 Red Run (ML 15-1)

# 4 Red Danger (ML 10-1)

# 10 Coinage (ML 6-1)

# 11 Dowagiac Chief (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 8 Royal Spirit (ML 15-1)

Balnikov (Ire) missed victory by just a nose last time out in his North American debut.  Main Event misses by just a neck of being three-for-three lifetime on the turf.  Portfolio Company, making his 2022 debut, has won off works in the past.

Sy Dog, trained by Graham Motion, is undefeated in his three race career.  Stolen Base could improve with the return to the turf.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Churchill Downs (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Jackie's Warrior (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Aloha West (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Long Range Toddy (ML 30-1)

# 4 Sir Alfred James (ML 30-1)

# 5 Reinvestment Risk (ML 7-2)

# 6 Prevalence (ML 6-1)

# 7 Mind Control (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 8 Cezanne (ML 4-1)

Jackie's Warrior, winner of the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile over this track last year, appears to have a clear class edge over the rest of the field.  Jackie's Warrior also tends to run well at the seven furlong distance.

Aloha West won the 2021 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint defeating, among others, Jackie's Warrior (the only time in Jackie's Warrior's career when he did not finish in the Superfecta).  However, Aloha West has not run competitively since that event last November.  If Aloha West is ready to roll then there's no reason why he can't defeat Jackie's Warrior again.  So I'll be going two deep in this leg on the big ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Shirl's Speight (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Tribhuvan (Fr) (ML 5-1)

# 5 Mira Mission (ML 10-1)

# 10 Santin (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Bizzee Channel (ML 30-1)

# 3 Public Sector (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 7 Cavalry Charge (ML 12-1)

# 8 Adhamo (Ire) (ML 9-2)

# 9 Kentucky Ghost (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Ivar (Brz) (ML 4-1)

Shirl's Speight enters this contest with a three race winning streak, and Shirl's Speight has proven in the past that he can win going second time off the bench.  Tibhuvan (Fr) could improve with the cutback in distance.

Mira Mission could rebound to the form that he showed in February when he won the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream Park.  Santin could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Taiba (ML 12-1)

B's

# 1 Mo Donegal (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tiz the Bomb (ML 30-1)

# 10 Zandon (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Happy Jack (ML 30-1)
# 3 Epicenter (ML 7-2)

# 4 Summer Is Tomorrow (ML 30-1)
# 5 Smile Happy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Messier (ML 8-1)

# 7 Crown Pride (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Charge It (ML 20-1)

# 11 Pioneer of Medina (ML 30-1)

# 13 Simplification (ML 20-1)

# 14 Barber Road (ML 30-1)
# 15 White Abarrio (ML 10-1)

# 16 Cyberknife (ML 20-1)
# 17 Classic Causeway (ML 30-1)

# 18 Tawny Port (ML 30-1)

# 19 Zozos (ML 20-1)

# 21 Rich Strike (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 20 Ethereal Road (ML 30-1) and # 22 Rattle N Roll (ML 30-1)

Taiba reminds me oh so much of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify; just a freakishly gifted athlete that can rise to any occasion as required.  In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby Taiba had no difficulties running right by Messier in the stretch; and Messier is clearly no pushover.

Mo Donegal, winner of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, had trouble competing in Florida at the same level that he was competing in New York.  Perhaps Mo Donegal will bring his New York form to Kentucky.

Tiz the Bomb, winner of the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steak Stakes could shock the world if his recent success turns out to be due to his natural maturation rather than due to the switch to the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.

Zandon, winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 3 with 6 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7,9 with 1,3 with 4,5,6,10 with 1,9,10,12 $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,10,11 with 3 with 6 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 2,3,7,8,9 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,21 $8.00

Total: $96.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 11 - The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile - # 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (Final Odds 8.40) - "C" Selection

Race 12 - The Derby City Distaff - # 4 Bell's the One (4.20) - "C" Selection

Race 13 - The Turf Classic - # 4 Digital Age (Ire) (8.60) - "C" Selection

Race 14 - The Kentucky Derby - # 18 Authentic (8.40) - "B" Selection

Congrats to Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey John Velazquez, and all the winner's connections.  Just a tremendous effort by a great horse.  And hat's off to Tiz the Law, who ran a fine race in defeat.  Truly a memorable Kentucky Derby; unlike my play, which was quite forgettable.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  6 / 4 / 4 / 18  were rewarded with a payout of $2,789.30 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"You don't become enormously successful without encountering and overcoming a number of extremely challenging problems." - Mark Victor Hansen

It's here at last, the first Saturday in, well, not May; but September.  So it goes.  But though it certainly isn't what we're used to, the Kentucky Derby is still the Kentucky Derby, North America's biggest horse race of the year.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 11 - (F) The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Morning Line 4-5)

B's

# 2 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 7 La Signare (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Belle Laura (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 She'sonthewarpath (ML 15-1) and # 5 Harmless (ML 12-1)

Newspaperofrecord (Ire) appears to have returned to the form that she displayed as a juvenile back in 2018.  Indeed, toss out her 2019 starts and Newspaperofrecord is five-for-five in her career, with four of those five victories coming in Graded Stakes.

Daddy Is a Legend probably needed that last race, which was her 2020 debut.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - (F) The Derby City Distaff (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Ce Ce (ML 3-1)

B's

# 8 Serengeti Empress (ML 9-5)

# 9 Bellafina (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Shesomajestic (ML 30-1)
# 3 Wildwood's Beauty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Bell's the One (ML 10-1)

# 6 Sally's Curlin (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Mia Mischief (ML 6-1); # 5 Crazy Sexy Munny (ML 50-1); and # 7 Lady Kate (ML 20-1)

Ce Ce, Show finisher in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar last time out, should improve with the cutback in distance.  An added plus is that Ce Ce defeated Serengeti Empress earlier this year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.

Serengeti Empress will almost certainly be quickest out of the gate.  Bellafina has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in six of her last nine starts; but Bellafina is just too talented for me to leave her off the main ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 13 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Factor This (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 6-1)

# 8 Sacred Life (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Somelikeithotbrown (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 4 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dontblamerocket (ML 15-1)
# 6 Mr Dumas (ML 12-1)

# 7 True Valour (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Spectacular Gem (ML 10-1)

Factor This enters this event with a four race winning streak; and Factor This should benefit from the rail draw.  Bowies Hero could move up going third off the layoff.

Sacred Life (Fr) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Somelikeithotbrown seems well suited to Saturday's distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 14 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 17 Tiz the Law (ML 3-5)

B's

# 10 Thousand Words (ML 15-1)

# 16 Honor A. P. (ML 5-1)

# 18 Authentic (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Max Player (ML 30-1)
# 3 Enforceable (ML 30-1)
# 4 Storm the Court (ML 50-1)
# 5 Major Fed (ML 50-1)
# 7 Money Moves (ML 30-1)
# 8 South Bend (ML 50-1)
# 9 Mr. Big News (ML 50-1)
# 11 Necker Island (ML 50-1)
# 12 Sole Volante (ML 30-1)
# 13 Attachment Rate (ML 50-1)

# 14 Winning Impression (ML 50-1)
# 15 Ny Traffic (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 50-1) and # 6 King Guillermo (ML 20-1)

While so much is different about the 2020 version of the Kentucky Derby, one thing that has remained the same is that, as it was in so many prior Derbies, the Morning Line Favorite and most likely winner Saturday is the horse that won the Florida Derby; in this case, Tiz the Law.  Indeed, Tiz the Law has put together an impressive resume, racking up six Wins in his seven career starts.

Tiz the Law looks to be a legitimate Favorite, and probably should be a big ticket single in my play.  But Tiz the Law's one defeat was also his one prior start over this main track.  Which, quite frankly, probably means nothing.  But it could mean everything.

Anyway, if Tiz the Law repeats his performance from last time out, when he won the Travers by as many as he wanted, then he's going to win Saturday.  But if Tiz the Law should regress off that effort, then I think he can be defeated.

Thousand Words is the "other" Baffert; and it would be perhaps the most fitting result for 2020 that the lesser regarded Bob Baffert trainee would win the Kentucky Derby.  Honor A. P. should improve with the increase in distance.

Contrary to many other handicappers, I think Authentic can handle ten furlongs just fine.  In my opinion Authentic's problem last time out was that he was winning too easily and got distracted.  If Authentic keeps his mind on his work, I think Authentic can spring the upset.  So it's four deep for this leg on my main ticket, with everyone else being used as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 17 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 8,9,10 with 1,2,8,9 with 10,16,17,18 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,7,8 with 10 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 3,4,5,6,7,10 with 17 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15 $6.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 11 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/4/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The American Turf - # 3 Digital Age (Ire) (Final Odds 8.60) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Pat Day Mile - # 7 Mr. Money (7.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Turf Classic - # 12 Bricks and Mortar (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Kentucky Derby - # 20 Country House (65.20) - via DQ* - "C" Selection

* # 7 Maximum Security (4.50) crossed under the wire first in Race 12 but was disqualified and placed 17th.

Needless to say, the big story is that, for the first time ever, the winner of the Kentucky Derby was disqualified for interference during the running of the race.  I have my own opinion on the matter; an opinion which is obviously biased by my wagers apart from my Pick Four play, which had gone belly up in the second leg.  But as with any sporting event, the only opinions that matter are those of the officials; and regardless of what anyone may think about how they may have ruled, once that "Official" sign lights up, that's all she wrote.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  3 / 7 / 12 / 20  were rewarded with a payout of $11,325.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/4/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

It's here at last, the first Saturday in May; and now we can see just how well all those winter and early spring prep races have done in pointing us towards the top three year old in North America's biggest race of the year.  This is the horse race where even those who have to stop and think about how many legs your average equine runner has will be tuning in to see what happens.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 A Thread of Blue (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Social Paranoia (ML 10-1)
# 3 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Avie's Flatter (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Marquee Prince (ML 10-1)
# 5 Seismic Wave (ML 8-1)
# 6 Forever Mo (ML 15-1)
# 7 Casa Creed (ML 6-1)
# 9 War Film (ML 15-1)
# 10 Henley's Joy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Weekly Call (ML 30-1)
# 12 The Black Album (Fr) (ML 12-1)
# 13 Louder Than Bombs (ML 20-1)

A Thread of Blue, victor in four of his last five contests, showed last time out that he can win without being the pacesetter; a trait that could prove handy today, as the horse to his immediate left, Social Paranoia, looks to be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.

Digital Age (Ire) could be the one running best late.  Avie's Flatter, winner of the Grade 3 Transylvania last time out, is one that I was tempted to leave off the big ticket, as I didn't think much of that event.  But Avie's Flatter has found the winner's circle in every race of his career but one; and that makes it just too difficult to pass over.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pat Day Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Instagrand (ML 6-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Durkin's Call (ML 15-1)
# 2 Market King (ML 15-1)
# 3 Dream Maker (ML 15-1)
# 4 Mr Money Bags (ML 20-1)
# 5 Dunph (ML 12-1)
# 6 Tobacco Road (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mr. Money (ML 12-1)
# 8 Manny Wah (ML 10-1)
# 9 Captain Von Trapp (ML 15-1)
# 11 Frolic More (ML 20-1)
# 12 Everfast (ML 20-1)
# 13 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 30-1)
# 14 Last Judgement (ML 5-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Global Campaign (ML 5-1)

First, good luck to track announcer Travis Stone, who hopefully won't confuse Mr Money Bags with Mr. Money during the call of this race.  As to my play, Instagrand is clearly the best here on paper.  I also don't see a clear standout among the rest; so even if I were to double the cost of my main play by adding another runner to the big ticket, it would just be a stab, as the rest of the field looks to be pretty evenly matched.  So if I'm to cash my main ticket today, then Instagrand must win; but as a hedge, the rest of the field will be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Bricks and Mortar (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 5 Markitoff (ML 10-1)
# 7 Prime Attraction (ML 10-1)
# 9 Synchrony (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 3 Multiplier (ML 20-1)
# 4 Sabador (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Clyde's Image (ML 15-1)
# 8 Breaking the Rules (ML 15-1)
# 10 Ticonderoga (ML 8-1)
# 11 March to the Arch (ML 20-1)
# 13 Next Shares (ML 12-1)

Bricks and Mortar, trained by Chad Brown, enters this contest with a three race winning streak, the last two coming in Graded Stakes.  Qurbaan could improve going second off the layoff.

Markitoff was just a nose behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out.  Prime Attraction has run well on the grass before, and Prime Attraction just might be heading towards the winner's circle before the others can hit their best stride.

Synchrony could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Maximum Security (ML 10-1)

B's

# 2 Tax (ML 20-1)
# 3 By My Standards (ML 20-1)
# 5 Improbable (ML 6-1)
# 6 Vekoma (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tacitus (ML 10-1)
# 14 Win Win Win (ML 15-1)
# 16 Game Winner (ML 5-1)
# 17 Roadster (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 War of Will (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gray Magician (ML 50-1)
# 9 Plus Que Parfait (ML 30-1)
# 10 Cutting Humor (ML 30-1)
# 13 Code of Honor (ML 15-1)
# 15 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 50-1)
# 18 Long Range Toddy (ML 30-1)
# 19 Spinoff (ML 30-1)
# 20 Country House (ML 30-1)
# 21 Bodexpress (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 11 Haikal (ML 30-1) and # 12 Omaha Beach (ML 4-1)

Every year I tell myself that I'm only going to use a few runners in the Derby; and every year, well....

Of course, whenever the Post Time Favorite scratches, in any race, that adds a certain amount of chaos to the process.  But even before it was announced that Omaha Beach would not break from the gate, I thought Maximum Security had the best chance of winning.  But then we get closer to the actual date, confidence begins to wane, and, well, there you have it; slightly less than half the field ends up on the big ticket.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 10 with 12 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8 with 10 with 1,5,7,9,12 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,14,16,17 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 with 10 with 12 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 12 with 7 $6.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 2,3,4,6,8,10,11,13 with 7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 12 with 1,4,9,10,13,15,18,19,20,21 $5.00

Total: $111.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/3/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Four -

Race 8 - The La Troienne - # 1 She's a Julie (Final Odds 5.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Cummings (22.30) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - The Turf Sprint - # 6 World of Trouble (0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The Kentucky Oaks - # 13 Serengeti Empress (13.00) - "B" Selection

Mistakes were plentiful Friday.  She's a Julie, winner of the Grade 3 Bayakoa last time out, certainly deserved more consideration than that which I gave her.  I remarked in the preview that World of Trouble should probably have been a big ticket single; and the four year old colt proved that there was no probably about it, winning the Turf Sprint easily.  Even Serengeti Empress, whom I correctly placed on the big ticket, must be included as part of the mistake brigade, because of the multiple times in the preview that I referred to her as Serengeti Express (at least that error I was able to correct).

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Oaks Pick Four sequence of  1 / 3 / 6 / 13  were rewarded with a payout of $2,141.35 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

5/3/19 Churchill Downs Kentucky Oaks Pick Four - Preview

Kentucky Derby weekend is now upon us, as Friday the best three year old fillies in the land will be competing for top honors in Louisville, Kentucky, highlighting a card chock full of stakes.  As I type this the third race in the sequence that I'm discussing, the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, has not yet been taken off the lawn; but even if that contest should be moved off the grass, my picks will remain as they are.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four sequence ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

RACE 8 - (F) The La Troienne (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Secret Spice (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Teresa Z (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 She's a Julie (ML 7-2)
# 3 Divine Miss Grey (ML 7-2)
# 4 Awe Emma (ML 20-1)
# 5 Mopotism (ML 15-1)
# 6 Chocolate Martini (ML 15-1)
# 10 Viva Forever (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 8 Golden Award (ML 12-1)

Secret Spice looks to be in top form, coming off a daylight victory in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile.  Teresa Z probably needed that last race, and should improve off that effort.

Blue Prize (Arg) is making her 2019 debut, which is why I've made her a "B" Selection here rather than my top pick.  I'm quite certain that Blue Prize is the most talented runner in this field; but Blue Prize showed that she needed one last year when she made her 2018 debut, and that was off a much shorter layoff.  Still, if Blue Prize is ready to roll, this event is hers for the taking.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Solid Wager (ML 5-2)
# 15 Soul Streit (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Knights Key (ML 10-1)
# 12 Fuel the Bern (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 American Tattoo (Arg) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Cummings (ML 12-1)
# 4 Musical America (ML 20-1)
# 6 Strolling (ML 15-1)
# 8 Home Base (ML 15-1)
# 9 Mojo Man (ML 10-1)
# 10 Gray Sky (ML 15-1)
# 11 Tiz Mischief (ML 20-1)
# 13 Transatlantic Kiss (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1A Funny Duck (ML 4-1); # 2 Rugbyman (ML 6-1); and # 14 Cove Blue (ML 15-1)

Solid Wager seems to flourish at the seven furlongs distance, and could be the one running best late.  Soul Streit seems to be advancing well through his conditions after being outclassed in last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

Knights Key seems to enjoy the off going, and could be competing with Solid Wager for best late running honors.  Fuel the Bern could improve going second off the layoff.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 2) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 World of Trouble (ML 1-1)

B's

# 8 Undrafted (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Smart Remark (ML 30-1)
# 4 Jazzy Times (ML 20-1)
# 5 Chaos Theory (ML 12-1)
# 7 Angaston (ML 15-1)
# 9 Will Call (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Bound for Nowhere (ML 3-1) and # 2 Mr. Crow (ML 10-1)

World of Trouble looks to be much the best here, and probably should be a big ticket single.  But it is a sprint (turf or not to be determined), and thus the possibility for an upset is that much heightened.  Therefore I'm also including Undrafted on the big ticket, as I think Undrafted has the best shot here at catching World of Trouble on the line.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Bellafina (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Out for a Spin (ML 15-1)
# 7 Jaywalk (ML 8-1)
# 11 Jeltrin (ML 15-1)
# 13 Serengeti Empress (ML 8-1)
# 14 Restless Rider (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Chocolate Kisses (ML 20-1)
# 3 Lady Apple (ML 20-1)
# 5 Flor de La Mar (ML 20-1)
# 6 Positive Spirit (ML 30-1)
# 8 Motion Emotion (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liora (ML 20-1)
# 10 Champagne Anyone (ML 6-1)
# 12 Street Band (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Dunbar Road (ML 5-1) and # 16 Point of Honor (ML 20-1)

The last time Bellafina was the Post Time Favorite over this main track she finished a disappointing fourth, behind both Jaywalk and Restless Rider.  So well Bellafina once again looks clear best among these, it makes sense to be prepared should lightning strike twice.

Out for a Spin could be speed on the rail.  Jeltrin shocked everyone last time out while winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale; maybe she can shock everyone again.  Serengeti Empress bled despite the Lasix last time out, which is more than just a small concern.  But Serengeti Empress has been working extremely well since then; and if she's healthy, Serengeti Empress can definitely win here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 6 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7,9 with 5,7,12,15 with 6,8 with 1,4,7,11,13,14 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,10 with 7,15 with 6 with 4 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 with 4 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 3,4,5,7,9 with 4 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 6 with 2,3,5,6,8,9,10,12 $8.00

Total: $97.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 2:53 EDT / 11:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Later Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The BC Mile - # 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Final Odds 5.90) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The BC Distaff - # 11 Monomoy Girl (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC Turf - # 2 Enable (GB) (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Classic - # 14 Accelerate (2.70*) - "B" Selection

Both Monomy Girl and Enable (GB) made me look foolish while winning, as either or both of them really should have been big ticket singles.  And as it turned out, the combination of using all non-big ticket runners as backup "C" Selections in the final leg meant that I could have singled anybody in that race as well, and still have collected while spending much less on my play.  But all that is just twenty-twenty hindsight voicing its observations; as the bottom line is the bottom line, and despite the mistakes I still cash instead of contribute.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other thirteen runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (14.50) - $375.90 Finish: 3rd
# 2 Roaring Lion (19.70) - $513.35 Finish: 14th
# 3 Catholic Boy (5.10) - $170.85 Finish: 13th
# 4 Gunnevera (30.80) - $943.95 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Lone Sailor (90.90) - $4,948.10 Finish: 6th
# 6 McKinzie (3.90) - $126.80 Finish: 12th
# 7 West Coast (6.60) - $177.65 Finish: 7th
# 8 Pavel (39.70) - $1,341.35 Finish: 10th
# 9 Mendelssohn (13.30) - $494.65 Finish: 5th
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (14.50) - $375.25 Finish: 4th
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (9.10) - $257.90 Finish: 11th
# 12 Axelrod (51.70) - $1,143.00 Finish: 9th
# 13 Discreet Lover (53.30) - $2,588.60 Finish: 8th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 11 / 2 / 14  which paid $157.95 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $38.95 on my initial $119.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.33-1.  Which may not be much; but believe me, it sure beats not cashing at all.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Results

Race 4 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 9 Stormy Liberal (Final Odds 7.00) - "B" Selection

Race 5 - The BC Dirt Mile - # 1 City of Light (2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - The BC F&M Turf - # 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3.30) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Roy H (2.70) - "B" Selection

Stormy Liberal's victory in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was close enough that it'll be awhile before I can complain about losing a photo again.  Also, for those who wonder, this is why I prefer to play the Crist method in a modified fashion; because without combining all my "A" Selections with all my "B" Selections, I would have contributed instead of cashed.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Whitmore (6.80) - $657.80 Finish: 2nd
# 2 Promises Fulfilled (4.60) - $545.95 Finish: 4th
# 5 Imperial Hint (1.60*) - $226.15 Finish: 3rd
# 8 Limousine Liberal (4.80) - $519.70 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 1 / 6 / 9  which paid $253.25 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $120.25 on my initial $133.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.90-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Later Pick Four - Preview

Just to be clear, this is the Pick Four that culminates with The Breeders' Cup Classic, Race 11 on Saturday's program.  So with that settled let's just get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.

RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Expert Eye (GB) (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 5 Oscar Performance (ML 6-1)
# 8 I Can Fly (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lightning Spear (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Mustashry (GB) (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Next Shares (ML 10-1)
# 3 Happily (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Almanaar (ML 12-1)
# 10 Catapult (ML 6-1)
# 12 Analyze It (ML 6-1)
# 13 Gustav Klimt (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 15 Divisidero (ML 30-1)
# 16 Clemmie (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 4 Polydream (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 9 Hunt (Ire) (ML 30-1)  Bring in the Also Eligibles.

Oscar Performance is the only North American bred runner that I'll be using in this leg.  I think Oscar Performance's effort in winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile was just too good to overlook.  For those who keep track of such things, Next Shares and Happily (Ire) were the final two cuts from the big ticket, ultimately relegated to backup "C" Selection status, along with the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)

B's

# 2 Abel Tasman (ML 7-2)
# 7 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-1)
# 9 Wow Cat (Chi) (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Champagne Problems (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Mopotism (ML 30-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 15-1)
# 6 Verve's Tale (ML 30-1)
# 8 Vale Dori (ML 12-1)
# 10 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 6-1)

Monomoy Girl has the ability to make my decision to go four deep here look like a very foolish one.  But even forgetting the controversial disqualification, Midnight Bisou was right there with Monomoy Girl at the wire last time out in the Grade 1 Cotillion; perhaps Midnight Bisou can run that well again today.

I'll know right at the break if using Abel Tasman in this leg was the right decision, as all her poor outings have been those where she's had trouble at the start.  Wow Cat (Chi) probably isn't quite up to competing at this class level yet; but Wow Cat has improved in each of her three North American starts; and if that trend continues, Wow Cat could be the one getting her picture taken today.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Enable (GB) (ML 1-1)

B's

# 12 Waldgeist (GB) (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 12-1)
# 4 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Magical (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 6 Arklow (ML 30-1)
# 7 Glorious Empire (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 8 Liam the Charmer (ML 30-1)
# 9 Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) (ML 30-1)
# 10 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Sadler's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 13 Hunting Horn (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Like Monomoy Girl above, Enable (GB) has the ability to make me look very foolish by not using her as a big ticket single; especially since I am including a runner that Enable defeated by over a length last time out.  But I truly believe that Waldgeist (GB) can move up off that prior effort; and if he does, it could be at a price very much worth having.  And while I think the top two really have the Win probabilities quite well covered, just in case I'm still using the rest of the field as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 McKinzie (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Catholic Boy (ML 8-1)
# 7 West Coast (ML 5-1)
# 11 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 14 Accelerate (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Roaring Lion (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gunnevera (ML 20-1)
# 5 Lone Sailor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mendelssohn (ML 12-1)
# 10 Yoshida (Jpn) (ML 10-1)
# 12 Axelrod (ML 30-1)
# 13 Discreet Lover (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Collected (ML 30-1) and # 16 Toast of New York (ML 20-1)

No real surprises among the runners that I'm using on the big ticket in this leg, since it appears that the Morning Line maker agrees with my choices.  As regards my top choice, I think this could be another year where this race is won by a three year old; and I think Justify may not have been a Triple Crown winner had he had to go up against his stable mate McKinzie back in the Spring.  Everyone in the field not on the big ticket is being used in this leg as a backup "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7,8,11,14 with 2,7,9,11 with 2,12 with 3,6,7,11,14 $100.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10,12,13,15,16 with 11 with 2 with 6 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10 with 2 with 6 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 $5.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 11 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10,12,13 $4.50

Total: $119.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 3:36 EDT / 12:36 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/3/18 Churchill Downs All BC Earlier Pick Four - Preview

There are four, yes four, Pick Four plays being offered at Churchill Downs Saturday for Day 2 of the 2018 Breeders' Cup.  This preview is for for the second of the four; the one beginning with Race 4, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.  Hopefully very soon I'll be posting a preview for the Pick 4 which culminates with the Breeders' Cup Classic.  So if all is clear let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at The World's Most Legendary Racetrack.

RACE 4 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Disco Partner (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 7 Lost Treasure (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Stormy Liberal (ML 4-1)
# 10 Havana Grey (GB) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Ruby Notion (ML 20-1)

# 2 Bucchero (ML 10-1)

# 3 Hembreee (ML 20-1)

# 4 Vision Perfect (ML 15-1)

# 6 Rainbow Heir (ML 12-1)

# 8 Chanteline (ML 15-1)

# 11 World of Trouble (ML 6-1)

# 12 Richard's Boy (ML 12-1)

# 13 Will Call (ML 20-1)
# 14 Conquest Tsunami (ML 6-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Insta Erma (ML 30-1)

Note the extra half furlong for this event compared to the 2017 version run at Del Mar.  Speaking of 2017, I was tempted to relegate late year's winner of this event, Stormy Liberal, to backup "C" Selection status, as Stormy Liberal tends to leave his "A" Game back home in California.  Conversely, if I was to add another runner to the big ticket, it would probably be World of Trouble, as I think World of Trouble may be ready to handle the rise in class.  Everyone not on the big ticket is being used as a backup "C" Selection in this leg, as I think this contest is the one most likely to produce an upset winner.

RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Catalina Cruiser (ML 8-5)

B's

# 1 City of Light  (ML 5-2)

# 6 Seeking the Soul (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Trigger Warning (ML 20-1)
# 3 Isotherm (ML 20-1)

# 4 Seven Trumpets (ML 15-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bravazo (ML 20-1)

# 9 Giant Expectations (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 5 Awesome Slew (ML 15-1)

This will be one of the few times since its inception that this race will do that which it was intended to do; that is, provide a contest for one turn milers, those horses who don't really have the endurance to go around two turns, but aren't quite fast enough to sprint.

Seeking the Soul always seems to run well over this main track, which is why I decided to include him on the big ticket with Catalina Cruiser and City of Light.  Because of the relatively small field for this event, I'll be using everyone else as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Wild Illusion (GB) (ML 7-2)

B's

# 6 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 10 Magic Wand (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 14 Eziyra (Ire) (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Fourstar Crook (ML 5-1)

# 2 Thais (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 4 Paved (ML 20-1)

# 9 Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 10-1)

Like the Turf Sprint above, this event will be a half furlong longer than it was when it was run last year at Del Mar.

Believe it or not, Sistercharlie (Ire), the Morning Line Favorite, was the one that I came closest to leaving off the big ticket.  Sistercharlie has certainly done nothing wrong in her career; but I'm just not sure that she can handle this level of competition.  As you can see, I ultimately decided to place her on the big ticket; we'll just have to wait and see if that was the right move.  Note that this is the only leg of this sequence where the rest of the field is not being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Limousine Liberal (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Whitmore (ML 6-1)

# 2 Promises Fulfilled (ML 6-1)

# 5 Imperial Hint (ML 9-5)

# 9 Roy H (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 B Squared (ML 20-1)

# 4 Warrior's Club (ML 15-1)

# 6 Always Sunshine (ML 20-1)

# 7 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)

Limousine Liberal is a Lifetime six-for-eight over this main track, which is why he tops my selections for this contest.  Had I been able to find a single in any one of the three prior events, I would be going "ALL" in for this leg.  Instead, I settled for using everyone not on the big ticket as a backup "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5,7,9,10 with 1,6,10 with 3,6,10,14 with 1,2,5,8,9 $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,6,8,11,12,13,14 with 10 with 3 with 8 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,3,4,7,8,9 with 3 with 8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 1,2,4,9 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 10 with 3 with 3,4,6,7 $2.00

Total: $133.00

Post Time for Race 4 is 12:38 EDT / 9:38 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/2/18 Churchill Downs All Breeders' Cup Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 6 Newspaperofrecord (Final Odds 0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 7 Jaywalk (5.50) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 5 Line of Duty (Ire) (3.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The BC Juvenile - # 9 Game Winner (1.00*) - "A" Selection

Getting three Aces home means that had I used Line of Duty (Ire) in any capacity in my play, I would have collected.  But I remarked in the preview that with fields this large using all non-big ticket runners in all legs as backup "C" Selections is just too expensive a proposition.  Of course, had # 2 Uncle Benny (8.00) gotten to the wire a half length sooner in the Juvenile Turf, or had the stewards ruled that the check that Uncle Benny received from Line of Duty in the stretch was more than just incidental contact, then I would have collected.  But such was not to be.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Breeders' Cup Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 5 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $91.40 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo