5/7/22 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"When you have exhausted all possibilities, remember this: you haven’t." - Thomas A. Edison

Here we are, the first Saturday in May, the day when many Americans will be watching their one allotted horse race for the year.  That one race, of course, is the Kentucky Derby, the event for which virtually every talented North American three year old thoroughbred has been training almost since birth.  Okay, that's enough buildup; let's get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Balnikhov (Ire) (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 2 Main Event (ML 5-1)

# 6 Portfolio Company (ML 9-2)

# 7 Sy Dog (ML 7-2)

# 9 Stolen Base (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Smokin' T (ML 15-1)

# 3 Red Run (ML 15-1)

# 4 Red Danger (ML 10-1)

# 10 Coinage (ML 6-1)

# 11 Dowagiac Chief (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 8 Royal Spirit (ML 15-1)

Balnikov (Ire) missed victory by just a nose last time out in his North American debut.  Main Event misses by just a neck of being three-for-three lifetime on the turf.  Portfolio Company, making his 2022 debut, has won off works in the past.

Sy Dog, trained by Graham Motion, is undefeated in his three race career.  Stolen Base could improve with the return to the turf.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Churchill Downs (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Jackie's Warrior (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Aloha West (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Long Range Toddy (ML 30-1)

# 4 Sir Alfred James (ML 30-1)

# 5 Reinvestment Risk (ML 7-2)

# 6 Prevalence (ML 6-1)

# 7 Mind Control (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 8 Cezanne (ML 4-1)

Jackie's Warrior, winner of the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile over this track last year, appears to have a clear class edge over the rest of the field.  Jackie's Warrior also tends to run well at the seven furlong distance.

Aloha West won the 2021 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint defeating, among others, Jackie's Warrior (the only time in Jackie's Warrior's career when he did not finish in the Superfecta).  However, Aloha West has not run competitively since that event last November.  If Aloha West is ready to roll then there's no reason why he can't defeat Jackie's Warrior again.  So I'll be going two deep in this leg on the big ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Shirl's Speight (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Tribhuvan (Fr) (ML 5-1)

# 5 Mira Mission (ML 10-1)

# 10 Santin (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Bizzee Channel (ML 30-1)

# 3 Public Sector (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 7 Cavalry Charge (ML 12-1)

# 8 Adhamo (Ire) (ML 9-2)

# 9 Kentucky Ghost (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Ivar (Brz) (ML 4-1)

Shirl's Speight enters this contest with a three race winning streak, and Shirl's Speight has proven in the past that he can win going second time off the bench.  Tibhuvan (Fr) could improve with the cutback in distance.

Mira Mission could rebound to the form that he showed in February when he won the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream Park.  Santin could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Taiba (ML 12-1)

B's

# 1 Mo Donegal (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tiz the Bomb (ML 30-1)

# 10 Zandon (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Happy Jack (ML 30-1)
# 3 Epicenter (ML 7-2)

# 4 Summer Is Tomorrow (ML 30-1)
# 5 Smile Happy (ML 20-1)
# 6 Messier (ML 8-1)

# 7 Crown Pride (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

# 8 Charge It (ML 20-1)

# 11 Pioneer of Medina (ML 30-1)

# 13 Simplification (ML 20-1)

# 14 Barber Road (ML 30-1)
# 15 White Abarrio (ML 10-1)

# 16 Cyberknife (ML 20-1)
# 17 Classic Causeway (ML 30-1)

# 18 Tawny Port (ML 30-1)

# 19 Zozos (ML 20-1)

# 21 Rich Strike (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 20 Ethereal Road (ML 30-1) and # 22 Rattle N Roll (ML 30-1)

Taiba reminds me oh so much of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify; just a freakishly gifted athlete that can rise to any occasion as required.  In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby Taiba had no difficulties running right by Messier in the stretch; and Messier is clearly no pushover.

Mo Donegal, winner of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, had trouble competing in Florida at the same level that he was competing in New York.  Perhaps Mo Donegal will bring his New York form to Kentucky.

Tiz the Bomb, winner of the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steak Stakes could shock the world if his recent success turns out to be due to his natural maturation rather than due to the switch to the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.

Zandon, winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 3 with 6 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7,9 with 1,3 with 4,5,6,10 with 1,9,10,12 $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,10,11 with 3 with 6 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 2,3,7,8,9 with 12 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 3 with 6 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,21 $8.00

Total: $96.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:40 EDT / 12:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo