“Those who can imagine anything, can create the impossible.” - Alan Turing
It's the off-week between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness; for many a week of rest, but, for me, I'll be looking to Ontario to see if I can make some hay. So with that as intro let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 6 Sweet Carolena (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Ready To Venture (GB) (ML 3-5)
# 2 Veri Unified (ML 10-1)
# 3 Wicked Miah (ML 20-1)
# 4 Marais (ML 6-1)
# 4 Marais (ML 6-1)
# 5 Richies Noble Girl (ML 8-1)
# 7 Endorphin Rush (ML 20-1)
As you can see, I'm going one deep in this opening leg; but the runner that I'll be singling here is not the odds-on Morning Line Favorite.
Ready To Venture (GB) has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in each of her 2022 starts so far. But those two starts were both on the turf (one at Fair Grounds, the other at Aqueduct) and both at a distance of eight and a half furlongs. Ready To Venture has never previously competed on a synthetic surface, and Ready To Venture has yet to run a race at a distance of less than seven furlongs.
Now, if Ready To Venture can conquer the new surface and the distance, then she could make odds of 3-5 look like a gift. But I'm going to roll the dice here and see if I can get myself an upset to kick things off.
Sweet Carolena took the Place over this main track last time out at this class level. The runner Sweet Carolena finished behind was Beautiful Empire, who followed up that Allowance race victory by winning the $125k Star Shoot Stakes. I'm going to play this sequence with the hope/expectation that Sweet Carolena can improve enough off that last start to get under the wire ahead of Ready To Venture, who I hope will be disadvantaged by the surface and/or distance. So for me it's one deep in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Sovereign (ML 8-1)
B's
# 4 Grandson (ML 3-1)
# 5 Mr. De (ML 4-1)
# 6 Day Tripper (ML 2-1)
# 7 Midnight Arkle (ML 12-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Giant One (ML 6-1) and # 3 Cerebro (ML 8-1)
So right after my single I'll be punching the "ALL" button. The problem I have with this race is that the two logical contenders, Day Tripper and Mr. De, in my mind represent the resistible force meeting the movable object.
Day Tripper and Mr. De filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this main track last time out. But Day Tripper has been in this position several times before, and has always managed to miss graduation. Meanwhile, Mr. De will be making his second career start; and, for whatever reason, Trainer Steve Chircop's runners don't seem to move forward when competing for the second time.
So since the top two contenders both appear to be vulnerable, and all other entrants seem to be equally qualified, I'm going to accept that this contest is a mystery that I can't solve, and punch the "ALL" button and move on.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Dictate (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 2 Erasmo's Girl (ML 5-2)
# 5 Mumblebee (ML 6-1)
# 7 Bizymaline (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Alluring Meg (ML 10-1)
# 4 Admonish (ML 20-1)
# 6 Super Leggera (ML 8-1)
Nothing fancy here. Dictate, Erasmo's Girl, Mumblebee, and Bizymaline are all taking a step down on the class ladder, dropping into a class level where they can be competitive. So those four make their way onto the main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 11 Stronger Together (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 War Safe (ML 5-1)
# 4 Don't Tempt Fate (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Golden Burn (ML 10-1)
# 2 Bill Needle (ML 10-1)
# 6 Crooner (ML 12-1)
# 7 Under Surveillance (ML 20-1)
# 8 Uh Oh It's Magic (ML 15-1)
# 9 Rondure (ML 20-1)
# 10 Allen Diggs (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 5 Icing (ML 7-2)
Stronger Together took the Place at this class level last time out, and Stronger Together's bullet work last Saturday suggests that he is ready to fire.
War Safe and Don't Tempt Fate are a pair of debut runners that have been working well for this contest. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 1 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.20 P4: 6 with ALL with 1,2,5,7 with 3,4,11 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.20 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 1 with 11 $1.20
$0.20 P4: 6 with 1 with 3,4,6 with 11 $0.60
$0.20 P4: 6 with 1 with 1 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 $1.40
Total: $16.20
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:27 EDT / 1:27 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment