Race 7 - The Comely Stakes - # 2 Wedding Toast (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap - # 9 Flat Out (6.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Remsen Stakes - # 4 Honor Code (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 11 Winning Touch (1.35*) - "A" Selection
Wedding Toast got us off to a good start, using the time honored strategy of running a straight line to defeat the serpentine running # 9 Toasting (32.25) by a head. It was all for naught, however, as we had no part of Flat Out's victory in The Cigar Mile. In the "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due" Department, a tip of the hat to the good people of Brisnet.com, whose Ultimate Past Performances for The Cigar Mile had Flat Out pegged as the top entrant, courtesy of their Prime Power Ratings.
We felt there was little to choose between Honor Code and # 9 Cairo Prince (1.65) and the photo finish that determined the winner justified that opinion (though we must confess to having stated a slight preference for the one that took the Place). Winning Touch's victory in the finale capped off a Pick Four that saw three out of four Post Time Favorites get the job done (for the record, Flat Out was also the only non-Post Time Favorite to win one of Saturday's Pick Six races).
So our Pick Four play nets three winners; which, as you all know, is one winner too few. Still, it would be wrong to say that we came close; for while we only missed having one of the four winners, in the race we missed, we really missed; for despite having six of the ten entrants in The Cigar Mile on our tickets, we didn't have any of the horses that made up that race's Trifecta. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $55.50.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 9 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $39.62 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Showing posts with label Aqueduct. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aqueduct. Show all posts
Saturday, November 30, 2013
11/30/13 Aqueduct Late Pick Four - Preview
It’s Cigar Mile Day Saturday at The Big A in New York City, with a card featuring four Graded Stakes. Three of those four are contained in the Late Pick Four (the final four races on the card) and that’s where we’re going to focus our attention today.
RACE 7 - The Comely (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Wedding Toast (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 4 My Happy Face (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sheer Drama (ML 7-1)
Wedding Toast, winner of The Belle Cherie Stakes her last time out, is a late blooming filly who has finished in the Exacta in all four of her career starts since debuting this past June. My Happy Face is a Graded Stakes winner over this main dirt track and just misses by a head (in The Frizette) and a neck (in The Test) of being a two-time Grade 1 Stakes winner.
Sheer Drama, trained by Tony Dutrow, looks like she’s ready to take a big step forward; perhaps the addition of blinkers today will give her that added push. Also note that Irad Ortiz Jr replaces the injured Johnny V in the saddle, a move that has produced more than one upset winner this year.
RACE 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Groupie Doll (ML 3-1)
# 5 Laugh Track (ML 12-1)
# 8 Goldencents (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 10-1)
# 3 Clearly Now (ML 5-1)
# 6 Capo Bastone (ML 20-1)
The Cigar Mile features a half-million dollar purse that becomes a three-quarter of a million dollar purse for any prior Grade 1 winners and a million dollar purse for any Breeders’ Cup winners.Needless to say, the purse money bonuses have insured a championship caliber field. If all entrants run their best, this one has the potential to be a race of the year candidate.
Groupie Doll and Goldencents are the Breeders’ Cup winners here; if they both fire, it will Groupie Doll pressing Goldencents into the stretch and to the wire. Laugh Track just missed by a neck of being yet another Breeders’ Cup winner running in this one; look for him to be closer to the leaders today than he was in the BC Sprint.
Clearly Now makes a significant move up the class ladder today; but the fact that he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure is evidence that he deserves consideration. Forty Tales and Capo Bastone are the late runners to watch out for if there’s a total pace meltdown. Worth mentioning: Forty Tales’ Beyers in his last three races (in chronological order) with today’s jockey Joel Rosario on his back: 100 / 102 / 106.
RACE 9 - The Remsen (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Honor Code (ML 9-5)
# 9 Cairo Prince (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 8 Intense Holiday (ML 8-1)
Honor Code and Cairo Prince clearly stand out from the rest of the field based upon their past achievements. If I had to pick one (and, fortunately, I don’t) I’d take Cairo Prince over Honor Code, as there doesn’t appear to be enough pace in this one for the late runner Honor Code to chase. The Todd Pletcher trained Intense Holiday warrants consideration based upon the steady improvement his races have shown since his debut in July, along with the presence today of Joel Rosario in the saddle.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5K B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Superiority (ML 15-1)
# 5 Luxury Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winning Touch (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 3 Space Traveler (ML 6-1)
# 6 Herbert Hall (ML 5-1)
The conditions for this race are:
1) Three year olds and upward which have never won three races; or
2) Three year olds; or
3) Three year olds and upward which have not won a race on the dirt since May 30 (six months ago)
Winning Touch has been competitive in his last two races against more expensive. Luxury Appeal and Superiority deserve consideration based upon their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Also note that Superiority in the only horse in this field with multiple victories over this Aqueduct main track.
Good to see Space Traveler making a fast recovery after being vanned off in his last start. If Space Traveler can return to the form that he displaced during the summer months, he could win this one in a romp. Herbert Hall gets off the grass for just the third dirt start of his career. Note that Trainer David Jacobson has a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 4, 7
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 2, 3, 6
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 8
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $4.50
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 3, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $55.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:51 EST / 11:51 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Comely (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Wedding Toast (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 4 My Happy Face (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sheer Drama (ML 7-1)
Wedding Toast, winner of The Belle Cherie Stakes her last time out, is a late blooming filly who has finished in the Exacta in all four of her career starts since debuting this past June. My Happy Face is a Graded Stakes winner over this main dirt track and just misses by a head (in The Frizette) and a neck (in The Test) of being a two-time Grade 1 Stakes winner.
Sheer Drama, trained by Tony Dutrow, looks like she’s ready to take a big step forward; perhaps the addition of blinkers today will give her that added push. Also note that Irad Ortiz Jr replaces the injured Johnny V in the saddle, a move that has produced more than one upset winner this year.
RACE 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Groupie Doll (ML 3-1)
# 5 Laugh Track (ML 12-1)
# 8 Goldencents (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 10-1)
# 3 Clearly Now (ML 5-1)
# 6 Capo Bastone (ML 20-1)
The Cigar Mile features a half-million dollar purse that becomes a three-quarter of a million dollar purse for any prior Grade 1 winners and a million dollar purse for any Breeders’ Cup winners.Needless to say, the purse money bonuses have insured a championship caliber field. If all entrants run their best, this one has the potential to be a race of the year candidate.
Groupie Doll and Goldencents are the Breeders’ Cup winners here; if they both fire, it will Groupie Doll pressing Goldencents into the stretch and to the wire. Laugh Track just missed by a neck of being yet another Breeders’ Cup winner running in this one; look for him to be closer to the leaders today than he was in the BC Sprint.
Clearly Now makes a significant move up the class ladder today; but the fact that he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure is evidence that he deserves consideration. Forty Tales and Capo Bastone are the late runners to watch out for if there’s a total pace meltdown. Worth mentioning: Forty Tales’ Beyers in his last three races (in chronological order) with today’s jockey Joel Rosario on his back: 100 / 102 / 106.
RACE 9 - The Remsen (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Honor Code (ML 9-5)
# 9 Cairo Prince (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 8 Intense Holiday (ML 8-1)
Honor Code and Cairo Prince clearly stand out from the rest of the field based upon their past achievements. If I had to pick one (and, fortunately, I don’t) I’d take Cairo Prince over Honor Code, as there doesn’t appear to be enough pace in this one for the late runner Honor Code to chase. The Todd Pletcher trained Intense Holiday warrants consideration based upon the steady improvement his races have shown since his debut in July, along with the presence today of Joel Rosario in the saddle.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5K B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Superiority (ML 15-1)
# 5 Luxury Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winning Touch (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 3 Space Traveler (ML 6-1)
# 6 Herbert Hall (ML 5-1)
The conditions for this race are:
1) Three year olds and upward which have never won three races; or
2) Three year olds; or
3) Three year olds and upward which have not won a race on the dirt since May 30 (six months ago)
Winning Touch has been competitive in his last two races against more expensive. Luxury Appeal and Superiority deserve consideration based upon their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Also note that Superiority in the only horse in this field with multiple victories over this Aqueduct main track.
Good to see Space Traveler making a fast recovery after being vanned off in his last start. If Space Traveler can return to the form that he displaced during the summer months, he could win this one in a romp. Herbert Hall gets off the grass for just the third dirt start of his career. Note that Trainer David Jacobson has a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 4, 7
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 2, 3, 6
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 8
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $4.50
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 3, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $55.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:51 EST / 11:51 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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