9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"You don't become enormously successful without encountering and overcoming a number of extremely challenging problems." - Mark Victor Hansen

It's here at last, the first Saturday in, well, not May; but September.  So it goes.  But though it certainly isn't what we're used to, the Kentucky Derby is still the Kentucky Derby, North America's biggest horse race of the year.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 11 - (F) The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Morning Line 4-5)

B's

# 2 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 7 La Signare (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Belle Laura (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 She'sonthewarpath (ML 15-1) and # 5 Harmless (ML 12-1)

Newspaperofrecord (Ire) appears to have returned to the form that she displayed as a juvenile back in 2018.  Indeed, toss out her 2019 starts and Newspaperofrecord is five-for-five in her career, with four of those five victories coming in Graded Stakes.

Daddy Is a Legend probably needed that last race, which was her 2020 debut.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - (F) The Derby City Distaff (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Ce Ce (ML 3-1)

B's

# 8 Serengeti Empress (ML 9-5)

# 9 Bellafina (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Shesomajestic (ML 30-1)
# 3 Wildwood's Beauty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Bell's the One (ML 10-1)

# 6 Sally's Curlin (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Mia Mischief (ML 6-1); # 5 Crazy Sexy Munny (ML 50-1); and # 7 Lady Kate (ML 20-1)

Ce Ce, Show finisher in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar last time out, should improve with the cutback in distance.  An added plus is that Ce Ce defeated Serengeti Empress earlier this year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.

Serengeti Empress will almost certainly be quickest out of the gate.  Bellafina has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in six of her last nine starts; but Bellafina is just too talented for me to leave her off the main ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 13 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Factor This (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 6-1)

# 8 Sacred Life (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Somelikeithotbrown (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 4 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dontblamerocket (ML 15-1)
# 6 Mr Dumas (ML 12-1)

# 7 True Valour (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Spectacular Gem (ML 10-1)

Factor This enters this event with a four race winning streak; and Factor This should benefit from the rail draw.  Bowies Hero could move up going third off the layoff.

Sacred Life (Fr) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Somelikeithotbrown seems well suited to Saturday's distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 14 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 17 Tiz the Law (ML 3-5)

B's

# 10 Thousand Words (ML 15-1)

# 16 Honor A. P. (ML 5-1)

# 18 Authentic (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Max Player (ML 30-1)
# 3 Enforceable (ML 30-1)
# 4 Storm the Court (ML 50-1)
# 5 Major Fed (ML 50-1)
# 7 Money Moves (ML 30-1)
# 8 South Bend (ML 50-1)
# 9 Mr. Big News (ML 50-1)
# 11 Necker Island (ML 50-1)
# 12 Sole Volante (ML 30-1)
# 13 Attachment Rate (ML 50-1)

# 14 Winning Impression (ML 50-1)
# 15 Ny Traffic (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 50-1) and # 6 King Guillermo (ML 20-1)

While so much is different about the 2020 version of the Kentucky Derby, one thing that has remained the same is that, as it was in so many prior Derbies, the Morning Line Favorite and most likely winner Saturday is the horse that won the Florida Derby; in this case, Tiz the Law.  Indeed, Tiz the Law has put together an impressive resume, racking up six Wins in his seven career starts.

Tiz the Law looks to be a legitimate Favorite, and probably should be a big ticket single in my play.  But Tiz the Law's one defeat was also his one prior start over this main track.  Which, quite frankly, probably means nothing.  But it could mean everything.

Anyway, if Tiz the Law repeats his performance from last time out, when he won the Travers by as many as he wanted, then he's going to win Saturday.  But if Tiz the Law should regress off that effort, then I think he can be defeated.

Thousand Words is the "other" Baffert; and it would be perhaps the most fitting result for 2020 that the lesser regarded Bob Baffert trainee would win the Kentucky Derby.  Honor A. P. should improve with the increase in distance.

Contrary to many other handicappers, I think Authentic can handle ten furlongs just fine.  In my opinion Authentic's problem last time out was that he was winning too easily and got distracted.  If Authentic keeps his mind on his work, I think Authentic can spring the upset.  So it's four deep for this leg on my main ticket, with everyone else being used as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 17 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 8,9,10 with 1,2,8,9 with 10,16,17,18 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,7,8 with 10 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 3,4,5,6,7,10 with 17 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15 $6.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 11 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo