Kentucky Derby weekend is now upon us, as Friday the best three year old fillies in the land will be competing for top honors in Louisville, Kentucky, highlighting a card chock full of stakes. As I type this the third race in the sequence that I'm discussing, the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, has not yet been taken off the lawn; but even if that contest should be moved off the grass, my picks will remain as they are. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four sequence ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Troienne (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Secret Spice (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 2 Blue Prize (Arg) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Teresa Z (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 She's a Julie (ML 7-2)
# 3 Divine Miss Grey (ML 7-2)
# 4 Awe Emma (ML 20-1)
# 5 Mopotism (ML 15-1)
# 6 Chocolate Martini (ML 15-1)
# 10 Viva Forever (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 8 Golden Award (ML 12-1)
Secret Spice looks to be in top form, coming off a daylight victory in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. Teresa Z probably needed that last race, and should improve off that effort.
Blue Prize (Arg) is making her 2019 debut, which is why I've made her a "B" Selection here rather than my top pick. I'm quite certain that Blue Prize is the most talented runner in this field; but Blue Prize showed that she needed one last year when she made her 2018 debut, and that was off a much shorter layoff. Still, if Blue Prize is ready to roll, this event is hers for the taking. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Solid Wager (ML 5-2)
# 15 Soul Streit (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 5 Knights Key (ML 10-1)
# 12 Fuel the Bern (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 American Tattoo (Arg) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Cummings (ML 12-1)
# 4 Musical America (ML 20-1)
# 6 Strolling (ML 15-1)
# 8 Home Base (ML 15-1)
# 9 Mojo Man (ML 10-1)
# 10 Gray Sky (ML 15-1)
# 11 Tiz Mischief (ML 20-1)
# 13 Transatlantic Kiss (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 1A Funny Duck (ML 4-1); # 2 Rugbyman (ML 6-1); and # 14 Cove Blue (ML 15-1)
Solid Wager seems to flourish at the seven furlongs distance, and could be the one running best late. Soul Streit seems to be advancing well through his conditions after being outclassed in last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.
Knights Key seems to enjoy the off going, and could be competing with Solid Wager for best late running honors. Fuel the Bern could improve going second off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 2) - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 World of Trouble (ML 1-1)
B's
# 8 Undrafted (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Smart Remark (ML 30-1)
# 4 Jazzy Times (ML 20-1)
# 5 Chaos Theory (ML 12-1)
# 7 Angaston (ML 15-1)
# 9 Will Call (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Bound for Nowhere (ML 3-1) and # 2 Mr. Crow (ML 10-1)
World of Trouble looks to be much the best here, and probably should be a big ticket single. But it is a sprint (turf or not to be determined), and thus the possibility for an upset is that much heightened. Therefore I'm also including Undrafted on the big ticket, as I think Undrafted has the best shot here at catching World of Trouble on the line. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bellafina (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Out for a Spin (ML 15-1)
# 7 Jaywalk (ML 8-1)
# 11 Jeltrin (ML 15-1)
# 13 Serengeti Empress (ML 8-1)
# 14 Restless Rider (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Chocolate Kisses (ML 20-1)
# 3 Lady Apple (ML 20-1)
# 5 Flor de La Mar (ML 20-1)
# 6 Positive Spirit (ML 30-1)
# 8 Motion Emotion (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liora (ML 20-1)
# 10 Champagne Anyone (ML 6-1)
# 12 Street Band (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Dunbar Road (ML 5-1) and # 16 Point of Honor (ML 20-1)
The last time Bellafina was the Post Time Favorite over this main track she finished a disappointing fourth, behind both Jaywalk and Restless Rider. So well Bellafina once again looks clear best among these, it makes sense to be prepared should lightning strike twice.
Out for a Spin could be speed on the rail. Jeltrin shocked everyone last time out while winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale; maybe she can shock everyone again. Serengeti Empress bled despite the Lasix last time out, which is more than just a small concern. But Serengeti Empress has been working extremely well since then; and if she's healthy, Serengeti Empress can definitely win here. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 6 with 4 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7,9 with 5,7,12,15 with 6,8 with 1,4,7,11,13,14 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,10 with 7,15 with 6 with 4 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,13 with 6 with 4 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 3,4,5,7,9 with 4 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 7,15 with 6 with 2,3,5,6,8,9,10,12 $8.00
Total: $97.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 2:53 EDT / 11:53 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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