5/18/19 Pimlico Preakness Pick 4 - Preview

Neither winner of this year's Kentucky Derby will be running Saturday in the featured race at Pimlico; thus guaranteeing that the controversy surrounding the Run for Roses earlier this month won't extend into a Triple Crown winner with an asterisk next to his name.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Pimlico ending with the Preakness Stakes.

RACE 10 - (F) The Gallorette (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 I'm So Fancy (Ire) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 2 Inflexibility (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Thewayiam (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Mitchell Road (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dynatail (ML 12-1)
# 7 In the Lee (ML 10-1)
# 8 Viva Vegas (ML 5-1)
# 9 Barkaa (Fr) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 6 Hogan's Holiday (ML 15-1)

I'm So Fancy, a Group Stakes winner in her native Ireland, appears to have a class edge over the rest of this field.  Inflexibility, trained by Brad Cox, is making her 2019 debut, and Inflexibility could benefit from her extended vacation.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Chick Lang (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Pyron (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Malpais (ML 3-1)
# 6 Gladiator King (ML 6-1)
# 8 Preamble (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
# 2 Still Dreaming (ML 12-1)
# 4 Admiral Lynch (ML 10-1)
# 5 Cabot (ML 15-1)

# 9 Confessor (ML 15-1)

Pyron and Preamble are both undefeated in their respective careers, while Gladiator King has visited the winner's circle as often as those two have between them.  While Malpais was an easy winner last time out, it's possible that he could improve off that effort with the cutback in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Dixie (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Catholic Boy (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Just Howard (ML 10-1)

# 11 Inspector Lynley (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Admission Office (ML 12-1)

# 4 Paret (Aus) (ML 20-1)

# 5 Have At It (ML 6-1)

# 7 Real Story (ML 10-1)

# 8 Phlash Phelps (ML 12-1)

# 9 Something Awesome (ML 15-1)

# 10 O Dionysus (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 1 Twenty Four Seven (ML 20-1) and # 6 Flameaway (ML 8-1)

Catholic Boy, a Grade 1 winner on both dirt and turf, would probably be a big ticket single here if not for the extended layoff coupled with the far outside draw.  Inspector Lynley is another that, while undeniably capable of winning at this class level, could be disadvantaged by the far outside post.  For that reason I decided to include Just Howard on the big ticket; for while Just Howard is not as classy as Catholic Boy and Inspector Lynley, Just Howard could find himself enjoying a much smoother trip.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 13 - The Preakness (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Owendale (ML 10-1)

B's

# 4 Improbable (ML 5-2)

# 7 Alwaysmining (ML 8-1)

# 8 Signalman (ML 30-1)

# 11 Laughing Fox (ML 20-1)

# 12 Anothertwistafate (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 War of Will (ML 4-1)

# 2 Bourbon War (ML 12-1)

# 3 Warrior's Charge (ML 12-1)

# 6 Market King (ML 30-1)

# 9 Bodexpress (ML 20-1)

# 10 Everfast (ML 50-1)

# 13 Win Win Win (ML 15-1)

Owendale projects to be one that will be running well late; so for most of this contest, Owendale will probably look like a really poor selection.  Hopefully Owendale won't look like a really poor selection after the race is over.

Improbable is a very good horse who doesn't always run to his potential.  In fact, if you're feeling adventurous, you can cut down on the cost of this play by playing against the Morning Line Favorite and leaving Improbable off the big ticket, as he will be heavily played well beyond his probability of winning.  I'm not in an adventurous type mood; at least, not that adventurous; but if you feel like going for a smaller play with a potential big return, it's something to consider.

Alwaysmining is the local hero, and local heroes tend to do poorly in the Preakness.  But  Alwaysmining is talented enough that he just might pull the upset.  Singnalman and Anothertwistafate should be up close early, while Laughing Fox, like Owendale, is one that will be doing his best running late.

War of Will will once again be disadvantaged by the rail draw; though certainly not to the extent that he was two weeks ago.  But even if Jockey Tyler Gaffalione can work out a trip, War of Will's tactical speed probably won't be enough to get him to the wire in time.  So for that reason, War of Will won't be a part of my main ticket, but will rather join all the others who are also not on the main ticket as a backup "C" Selection.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 7 with 12 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3,6,7,8 with 2,11,12 with 4,5,7,8,11,12 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,7,8,9 with 7 with 12 with 5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5,9 with 12 with 5 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 3,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 5 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 12 with 1,2,3,6,9,10,13 $3.50

Total: $85.50

Post Time for Race 10 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo