It's here at last, the first Saturday in May; and now we can see just how well all those winter and early spring prep races have done in pointing us towards the top three year old in North America's biggest race of the year. This is the horse race where even those who have to stop and think about how many legs your average equine runner has will be tuning in to see what happens. So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.
RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 A Thread of Blue (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 2 Social Paranoia (ML 10-1)
# 3 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Avie's Flatter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Marquee Prince (ML 10-1)
# 5 Seismic Wave (ML 8-1)
# 6 Forever Mo (ML 15-1)
# 7 Casa Creed (ML 6-1)
# 9 War Film (ML 15-1)
# 10 Henley's Joy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Weekly Call (ML 30-1)
# 12 The Black Album (Fr) (ML 12-1)
# 13 Louder Than Bombs (ML 20-1)
A Thread of Blue, victor in four of his last five contests, showed last time out that he can win without being the pacesetter; a trait that could prove handy today, as the horse to his immediate left, Social Paranoia, looks to be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.
Digital Age (Ire) could be the one running best late. Avie's Flatter, winner of the Grade 3 Transylvania last time out, is one that I was tempted to leave off the big ticket, as I didn't think much of that event. But Avie's Flatter has found the winner's circle in every race of his career but one; and that makes it just too difficult to pass over. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - The Pat Day Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Instagrand (ML 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Durkin's Call (ML 15-1)
# 2 Market King (ML 15-1)
# 3 Dream Maker (ML 15-1)
# 4 Mr Money Bags (ML 20-1)
# 5 Dunph (ML 12-1)
# 6 Tobacco Road (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mr. Money (ML 12-1)
# 8 Manny Wah (ML 10-1)
# 9 Captain Von Trapp (ML 15-1)
# 11 Frolic More (ML 20-1)
# 12 Everfast (ML 20-1)
# 13 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 30-1)
# 14 Last Judgement (ML 5-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 15 Global Campaign (ML 5-1)
First, good luck to track announcer Travis Stone, who hopefully won't confuse Mr Money Bags with Mr. Money during the call of this race. As to my play, Instagrand is clearly the best here on paper. I also don't see a clear standout among the rest; so even if I were to double the cost of my main play by adding another runner to the big ticket, it would just be a stab, as the rest of the field looks to be pretty evenly matched. So if I'm to cash my main ticket today, then Instagrand must win; but as a hedge, the rest of the field will be used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 12 Bricks and Mortar (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 5 Markitoff (ML 10-1)
# 7 Prime Attraction (ML 10-1)
# 9 Synchrony (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 3 Multiplier (ML 20-1)
# 4 Sabador (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Clyde's Image (ML 15-1)
# 8 Breaking the Rules (ML 15-1)
# 10 Ticonderoga (ML 8-1)
# 11 March to the Arch (ML 20-1)
# 13 Next Shares (ML 12-1)
Bricks and Mortar, trained by Chad Brown, enters this contest with a three race winning streak, the last two coming in Graded Stakes. Qurbaan could improve going second off the layoff.
Markitoff was just a nose behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out. Prime Attraction has run well on the grass before, and Prime Attraction just might be heading towards the winner's circle before the others can hit their best stride.
Synchrony could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Maximum Security (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 Tax (ML 20-1)
# 3 By My Standards (ML 20-1)
# 5 Improbable (ML 6-1)
# 6 Vekoma (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tacitus (ML 10-1)
# 14 Win Win Win (ML 15-1)
# 16 Game Winner (ML 5-1)
# 17 Roadster (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 War of Will (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gray Magician (ML 50-1)
# 9 Plus Que Parfait (ML 30-1)
# 10 Cutting Humor (ML 30-1)
# 13 Code of Honor (ML 15-1)
# 15 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 50-1)
# 18 Long Range Toddy (ML 30-1)
# 19 Spinoff (ML 30-1)
# 20 Country House (ML 30-1)
# 21 Bodexpress (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 11 Haikal (ML 30-1) and # 12 Omaha Beach (ML 4-1)
Every year I tell myself that I'm only going to use a few runners in the Derby; and every year, well....
Of course, whenever the Post Time Favorite scratches, in any race, that adds a certain amount of chaos to the process. But even before it was announced that Omaha Beach would not break from the gate, I thought Maximum Security had the best chance of winning. But then we get closer to the actual date, confidence begins to wane, and, well, there you have it; slightly less than half the field ends up on the big ticket.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 10 with 12 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8 with 10 with 1,5,7,9,12 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,14,16,17 $90.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12,13 with 10 with 12 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 12 with 7 $6.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 2,3,4,6,8,10,11,13 with 7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 12 with 1,4,9,10,13,15,18,19,20,21 $5.00
Total: $111.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment