“The heart of human excellence often begins to beat when you discover a pursuit that absorbs you, frees you, challenges you, or gives you a sense of meaning, joy, or passion.” - Terry Orlick
Kentucky Derby weekend is now upon us, the seemingly one and only time every year when your non-horse playing friends actually listen to what you have to say. As is traditional, Friday will see the best three year old fillies in the land compete for top honors in Louisville, Kentucky, in the featured race on a card chock full of stakes for distaff runners. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four sequence ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
RACE 8 - (F) The Unbridled Sidney $300k - Five an a Half Furlongs Turf
Scratch # 10 Love of My Heart (Morning Line 30-1) and # 12 Quaria Comet (ML 20-1)
So what do you do when you like the 4-5 Morning Line Favorite but not enough to make her a big ticket single? Do you relegate her to backup ticket status? Or do you take the value hit, knowing that including her with others on you main ticket increases costs much more than it adds value?
These are the questions that I need to answer regarding # 11 Caravel. I won't bore you with all the pros and cons of using versus dropping (not so much because I'm afraid of boring you, but mainly because I don't feel like doing all that typing) but instead I'll just cut to the chase and say that I'll be using Caravel with others on my main ticket. I justify my decision with my belief that the sequence will pay more than it should even should it chalk out, because of the large dollar amount wagered into the pools on days such as today.
RACE 9 - (F) The La Troienne (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
I chose to play against the Morning Line Favorite in this contest, the D Wayne Lukas trained # 4 Secret Oath (ML 3-1). Well, not totally against, as Secret Oath will be on a backup ticket. I've done likewise with the short priced (at least, on the Morning Line) # 7 Society (ML 4-1). Nothing against either four year old filly; I just think that # 2 Search Results (ML 4-1) is clearly better than the above named pair.
I also decided to add the Todd Pletcher trained # 6 Classy Edition (ML 8-1) to my main ticket, because I believe that Classy Edition's two prior efforts this year demonstrate that she's ready to make this step up in company; and if I'm correct, then it will be a long, long time before you see a price as nice as 8-1 again on Classy Edition.
RACE 10 - (F) The Edgewood (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
I was very much tempted to go ALL in this contest, as I see this as a very competitive event. A conviction underlining my opinion is that I believe that the three fillies in this field that ran in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride (# 3 Cairo Contest (ML 3-1); # 9 Papilio (ML 7-2); and # 11 Revalita (Fr) (ML 5-1) back in March at Gulfstream Park are all worthy contenders; with Revalita, the fourth place finisher in that race, perhaps most likely to take the next step forward.
Were I to think less of those exiting the Herecomesthebride, this would be a much easier race to handicap (not to mention making this a much less expensive play). Ultimately I decided to split the baby and use approximately half the field.
RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 15 Taxed (ML 20-1); # 16 Julia Shining (ML 15-1); and # 17 Hoosier Philly
I didn't make # 7 Wet Paint (ML 5-2) a big ticket single in my play. Long story short, I found the high odds on several others in this field to be a temptation that I could not resist. Actually, the real test of my ability to show personal restraint in the face of tempting odds will manifest itself later today it comes time to make my intra-race wagers on this event.
Okay; that's the analysis. Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:
And here, using a variation of the Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 11 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 7,11 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,8,11 with 2,6 with 3,6,7,9,11 with 4,7,11 $45.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 11 with 4,9 with 11 with 7,11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 2,8,10 with 7,11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 8,10 $1.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2 with 11 with 11 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 1,3,5,7,8,10 with 11 with 11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 1,4,5 with 11 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 11 with 2 with 11 with 1,2,3,5,6,9,12,13,14 $4.50
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 3:03 EDT / 12:03 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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