“Life is worthwhile if you try. It doesn’t mean you can do everything but there are a lot of things you can do, if you just try.” - Jim Rohn
Welcome to the Second Saturday in May, the traditional resting place between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes! In celebration of such tradition, I plan on doing something untraditional; at least, untraditional in the history of this blog: Take part in the action at Auburn, WA.
Specifically, I intend on playing Emerald Downs today; which, as can be seen on their calendar, began their 2023 racing meeting last Saturday. I know I won't be playing the Emerald Downs card every weekend this Summer (for example, next Saturday is the aforementioned Second Jewel of The Triple Crown); but this seems like an excellent opportunity to sample their product. So with the attitude of a trailblazer let's get to it, as, for the first time on this blog, I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Emerald Downs.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 3 Big Mama Thornton (No Line)
I've chosen to fade the Morning Line Favorite in this leg, # 7 Camden High (Morning Line 2-1) and designate this five year old mare as a "C" Selection. Personally, 2-1 is not the price that I prefer to accept on a runner that has one career Win in twenty-five attempts. Worse, at least in my mind, is that Camden High has taken the Place in nine of those twenty-five attempts. Toss in four more races in which Camden High took the Show, and you have a pretty good profile of a horse that is very much content to settle for a minor award in races where she was in fact the best. Of course, should Camden High run as well as the Morning Line suggests that she should, this could turn out to be a very short afternoon for me.
RACE 7 - ALW N2L* - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
The asterisk after the "N2L" above is because horses which were bred in the state of Washington are allowed another victory; so for Washington bred runners, the condition is N3L; that is, non-Winners of Three Lifetime Races. A pretty good deal, if you ask me. For those curious regarding such matters, # 2 Firewater (ML 6-1); # 5 March On Linch (ML 15-1); and # 6 Poverty Bay (ML 2-1) are the entrants in this field that have had their photograph taken three times.
Despite his advantage over half this field in career victories, I've chosen to keep Poverty Bay off my main ticket and slot the four year old gelding in as a "C+" Selection. Poverty Bay is winless over this track in four tries; but with three Place finishes. At better odds, I may have given greater consideration to Poverty Bay; but at 2-1 I'm willing to roll the dice and play against his chances. So two legs into this sequence, I've chosen to fade the two Morning Line Favorites. Which will be known to be either genius or idiocy once these races have been made Official.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 30k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 2 Ms Flashy Harbor (ML 5-1) and # 5 Drinkup Buttercup (ML 8-1)
Hmmm; $30k isn't too shabby for a first level Optional Claimer; though, on the other hand, these are three year olds only. Were I a more energetic sort I would see how that claiming price compares with other circuits in North America. Anyway, for all with a need to know, # 2 Ms Flashy Harbor and # 5 Drinkup Buttercup are the only two runners in this field that are up for sale for $30k. EDIT - And, as can be seen above, coincidentally or not, both Ms Flashy Harbor and Drinkup Buttercup have been scratched.
To continue the theme of this post, I will not be using the Morning Line Favorite in this leg, # 4 Aloha Breeze (ML 2-1) on my main ticket, but rather as a "C+" Selection. Granted, this one is more hunch than analysis, but Aloha Breeze strikes me as a runner that needs a race, and is up against a field where she'll need her best to win.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $8k - Five Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 8 Classy Candy (ML 5-1)
Okay; here's the exception to the rule in this sequence, as I not only have the Morning Line Favorite, # 6 Above the Stars (ML 6-5) on my main ticket, but I have chosen to use Above the Stars as my main ticket single for this leg. Still, me being me, I do have a hedge in place, as all others in this contest will find their way onto a backup ticket as a "C" Selection, with the exception of second time starter # 4 Zeva Dee, who I have made a "C+" Selection off her stunning gate work of April 29.
So with all that verbiage aside, here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:
And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are how those Selections translate into tickets:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 6 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,8 with 3,7 with 3,6,7 with 6 $9.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 6 with 6,7 with 6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 4,8 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,7 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,7 with 3 with 6 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5 with 6 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1 with 6 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 6 with 1,2,3,5,7 $2.50
Total: $27.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:47 EDT / 4:47 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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