“If you're not failing every now and again, it's a sign you're not doing anything very innovative.” - Woody Allen
It's definitely been awhile since I've posted a play involving this West Virginia track. But there's a holiday weekend approaching in the US, and while that means lots of great stakes, I know that also means for many of you that they'll be no time for handicapping, as family and other activities are on the calendar. For others, this could be an opportunity to pad the bankroll heading into three days of fun. Regardless of the reason let's just get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races.
RACE 5 - (F) [S] Md $7.5k - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
So the first handicapping question of the evening to be answered is how much faith should I place in the past performances of a class of runners notorious for being inconsistent? Last time out, # 7 S S Casino Girl (ML 9-5) and # 5 Showthemoneyhoney (ML 2-1) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level. One would therefore expect that these two would be the prime candidates to get their photo taken tonight; and the Morning Line odds certainly reflect that opinion. So if I were to expect their form to hold, I would select either S S Casino Girl or Showthemoneyhoney as my top pick here, and then hope to catch a price in one of the other three legs.
But I'm going to go in a different direction in this contest, on the presumption that SS Casino Girl and Showthemoneyhoney are going to attract an extremely high percentage of the funds in the pool. I'm going to roll the dice and make # 6 Lockdown Vanna (ML 10-1) my "A" Selection for this leg. I like the class drop, I like the cutback in distance, and I really like the probability that Lockdown Vanna will be under bet.
If form holds, then I'll be spending the rest of this sequence alive only to a backup ticket, as that's where you'll find S S Casino Girl and Showthemoneyhoney in my play. But should Lockdown Vanna come through, then I'll have an opportunity to connect the dots on a payout that will definitely be worth having.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] OClm 10000 - Seven Furlongs Dirt
The Starter Allowance piece of this contest's conditions is that, sometime over the past twenty-four months, the distaff runner must have started for a claiming price of $5k or less. For those who note such things, the runners in this field who are in for the $10 claiming price are # 1 Got Your Number (ML 20-1); # 2 Grace Elizabeth (ML 4-1); and # 7 Moiraine (ML 12-1).
# 9 Secret Castle (ML 9-5) looks legit here, and probably should be a big ticket single. But # 3 Castle of Caylee (ML 15-1) in my opinion merits attention; the question is, how much attention? While I may later regret this, I'm going to double the cost of my main ticket by going two deep in this leg, pairing Castle of Caylee with Secret Castle in this battle of thrones.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] ALW N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
Scratch # 6 Nearest N Dearest (ML 9-2)
# 5 Sneaky Lynk (ML 6-1) and # 8 Love of Grace (ML 10-1) competed against each other multiple times while both were seeking career victory number one; and Sneaky Lynk and Love of Grace both appear to be in top form and ready to resume their personal duel.
Certainly the class dropping # 2 Strong Willed (ML 7-2) deserves serious consideration, especially in light of Strong Willed having raced above her conditions in each of her last two starts. Strong Willed is making her first start of 2023; but she has won off just works in the past, specifically in her career debut.
I'm also going to toss # 7 Lucky Bop (ML 4-1) into the mix; though it's difficult to know how much of Lucky Bop's performance last time out was courtesy of competing on a sealed track. It's a close call, but I'm going to give Lucky Bop a spot on my main ticket, making it four deep for me in this leg.
RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
And so we arrive (hopefully still alive) at the only race in the sequence not carded for state bred distaff runners. I think it's clear that this race goes through the Morning Line Favorite, the shipper from Maryland, # 9 Notimelikepresent (ML 9-5). The only question in my mind is should Notimelikepresent be a single on the main ticket.
Certainly # 2 Bubba G (ML 2-1) is very likely to improve with a cleaner trip; and # 3 Cherry's Cross (ML 5-1), who took the Show at this class level last time out, is displaying a pattern of steady improvement that shouldn't be ignored. But I've chosen to leave those two off my main ticket.
However, I am going to slot # 7 Angelus Diamond (ML 12-1) into my main play. Angelus Diamond appears to be a strong candidate to rebound going third off the layoff, perhaps returning to the form that he displayed when he took the Place at this class level two starts back. Whether or not that effort will be good enough to defeat Notimelikepresent remains to be seen; but if Angelus Diamond should pull the upset, it will be at a very nice price. So it's two deep for me in this leg as far as my main play is concerned.
Okay; that's the analysis. Here are all my Selections, in beautiful living color:
And here, using a variation of the Steve Crist method, are the tickets into which those Selections have been translated:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 9 with 5 with 9 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 7,9 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 2,5,7,8 with 7,9 $8.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 7,9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 5,8 with 7,9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,9 with 5,8 with 2,3 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4 with 9 with 5 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,6,8 with 5 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 9,10 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 5 with 1,4,5,6,8 $2.50
Total: $37.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 8:53 EDT / 5:53 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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