11/5/22 Keeneland All BC Pick Six - Preview

"If you quit every time you face a new challenge, giving up can change how you view yourself.  You may begin to think you're weak or that you're a failure because you can't seem to stick with things long enough to see positive results." - Amy Morin

So I looked at my Pick Four plays, and they were chalk, chalk, and more chalk, with enough white dust floating around to have me hallucinating that I had been transported back to the '80s.  So rather than punching tickets with no promise of a decent payout, I figured why not take a shot at a bigger prize.  Yeah, I know that all these Favorites mean little chance of an eye-popping payout even in a Pick Six pool; but I see this as a challenge in and of itself.  And besides, sometimes you just have to take what the game is giving you.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Six at Keeneland.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 In Italian (GB) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 3 Nashwa (ML 5-2)

# 4 Above the Curve (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Sorry, no real analysis today; just some notes.  And the first thing that I'll note is that, because this is a regular Pick Six, it won't be everybody into the pool today, with all non-A's & B's being used as C's.  Only some runners not on the main ticket will be used as backups.  In this leg, where I'm using three short priced entrants, there will be no "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Kimari (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 American Theorem (ML 10-1)
# 5 Aloha West (ML 12-1)

# 6 Elite Power (ML 6-1)

# 9 Jackie's Warrior (ML 4-5)

# 11 Flash of Mischief (ML 30-1)

Yes, I relegated Jackie's Warrior to a "C" Selection.  Yes, I know there's an excellent possibility that I will look very foolish after this race is run.  What can I can?  You only live once.

RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Regal Glory (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Shirl's Speight (ML 30-1)

# 4 Modern Games (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 11 Annapolis (ML 10-1)

# 13 Kinross (GB) (ML 9-2)

C's

# 3 Dreamloper (Ire) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 12 King Cause (ML 30-1) and # 16 Gear Jockey (ML 30-1)

Yeah, I really didn't have a handle on this one.  Fortunately, I'm using enough singles where, from a cost perspective, I can spread a bit here.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Malathaat (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Clairiere (ML 4-1)
# 6 Nest (ML 9-5)
# 7 Search Results (ML 9-2)

Just my opinion, of course, but whichever multi-race wager you're making, there's just no value if you don't single in this event.  So pick one among the well known contenders, and hope for the best.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 War Like Goddess (ML 9-2)

B's

# 5 Rebel's Romance (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 7 Nations Pride (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 11 Mishriff (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Stone Age (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 4 Broome (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Channel Maker (ML 30-1)

Another grass race, another contest that I really don't have a handle on.  I'm beginning to notice a trend.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Flightline (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Taiba (ML 8-1)
# 2 Life Is Good (ML 6-1)

# 6 Epicenter (ML 5-1)

# 7 Olympiad (ML 10-1)
# 8 Rich Strike (ML 20-1)

Why all the "C" Selections?  Because I can still vividly recall the 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic, when Shared Belief got mugged leaving the gate, allowing Bayern to go gate to wire to win.  So, you know, just in case.  But realistically, Flightline is much the best here.  In my opinion, of course.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$1.00 P6: 3,4,11 with 2 with 2,4,8,11,13 with 1 with 2,5,7,11 with 4 $60.00

A's with One C

$1.00 P6: 11 with 4,5,6,9,11 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 4 $5.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 3 with 1 with 2 with 4 $1.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 4,6,7 with 2 with 4 $3.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 3,4,6 with 4 $3.00

$1.00 P6: 11 with 2 with 8 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,6,7,8 $5.00

Total: $79.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 1:50 EST / 10:50 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo