11/7/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Waiting to develop courage is just another form of procrastination. The most successful people take action while they’re afraid." - Anonymous

Remember how I wrote here yesterday to have fun?  That order still stands, as we go into Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Kameko (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 6 Safe Voyage (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 10 Halladay (ML 12-1)

# 11 Ivar (Brz) (ML 4-1)

# 12 Uni (GB) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Circus Maximus (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 3 Lope Y Fernandez (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 4 Siskin (ML 15-1)

# 5 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Casa Creed (ML 20-1)
# 8 March to the Arch (ML 15-1)

# 13 Factor This (ML 8-1)
# 14 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 15 Order of Australia (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 9 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)

Kameko looks to be entering this event in fine form, and there should be enough pace in this field for Kameko to chase.  Safe Voyage (Ire) is well suited to the distance, and Safe Voyage could improve with a firmer surface.

Halladay projects to be forwardly placed early; and Halladay could get loose early should any of the other presumed pacesetters falter.  Ivar (Brz) won the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile over this course last time out.

Uni (GB) is the defending champ, having defeated the boys in the 2019 running of this contest.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Swiss Skydiver (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 Horologist (ML 8-1)

# 10 Monomoy Girl (ML 8-5)

C's

# 1 Ce Ce (ML 12-1)

# 2 Harvest Moon (ML 12-1)

# 3 Dunbar Road (ML 12-1)

# 6 Lady Kate (ML 15-1)

# 7 Point of Honor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Valiance (ML 12-1)

# 9 Ollie's Candy (ML 10-1)

The connections of Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver chose to run her here rather than in the Classic; and while I prefer Swiss Skydiver here, this contest doesn't project to be a walk in the park for her, as she has to have to contend with defending champ Monomoy Girl.  Again, I give the edge to Swiss Skydiver; but his one has the potential to be a memorable battle.

So with those two great runners in the field, why am I adding Horologist to my main ticket?  Good question.  It came down to my opinion that Horologist looks to be in top form, coupled with my opinion that Horologist projects to be well positioned to swoop in just in time should the top two contenders in the field run each other into exhaustion.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Magical (Ire) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Tarnawa (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 9 Channel Maker (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Arklow (ML 5-1)

# 4 Mehdaayih (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 5 Donjah (Ger) (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lord North (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 7 United (ML 8-1)

# 8 Red King (ML 20-1)

# 10 Mogul (GB) (ML 4-1)

Magical (Ire) could move up with a better trip and a firmer surface than that which he endured last time out.  Tarnawa (Ire) is another that could improve competing over a firmer sod.

Channel Maker projects to be the early pacesetter; and Channel Maker tends to run well at this distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Improbable (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Tiz the Law  (ML 3-1)

# 4 Tom's d' Etat (ML 6-1)

# 9 Authentic (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Tacitus (ML 20-1)

# 3 By My Standards (ML 10-1)

# 5 Title Ready (ML 30-1)

# 6 Higher Power (ML 20-1)

# 7 Global Campaign (ML 20-1)

# 10 Maximum Security (ML 7-2)

Improbable enters this even with a three race winning streak; and it appears that a repeat of any of those three outings would be good enough to get the job done today.  Authentic and Tiz the Law were one - two on the first Saturday in September, and both seem capable of handling the older competition in this field.

Tom's d'Etat, the last runner to defeat Improbable, could win with a repeat of his performance in the Stephen Foster two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 5 with 2 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,10,11,12 with 4,5,10 with 2,3,9 with 2,4,8,9 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,7,8,13,14,15 with 5 with 2 with 8 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,6,7,8,9 with 2 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 2 with 1,3,5,6,7,10 $3.00

Total: $105.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:15 EST / 12:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo