11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success." - Albert Schweitzer

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 New Mandate (Ire) (Moring Line 12-1)

B's

# 5 Cadillac (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 6 Mutasaabeq (ML 5-1)

# 9 Battleground (ML 6-1)

# 11 Gretzky the Great (ML 8-1)
# 12 Go Athletico (Fr) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Sealiway (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Abarta (ML 12-1)

# 4 Public Sector (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Fire At Will (ML 12-1)
# 8 Outadore (ML 8-1)

# 10 Ebeko (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 13 Devilwala (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 14 The Lir Jet (Ire) (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Barrister Tom (ML 30-1) and # 16 Harlan Estate (ML 30-1)

This contest strikes me as being as wide open as any such contest can be.  While going "ALL" in a race with over a dozen leaving the gate was never a serious consideration, I did wonder if my bankroll might be better served by cutting back to a Pick Three for this sequence.  But what fun is that?

New Mandate (Ire) enters this event with a nice three race winning streak; and New Mandate seems well positioned to get first run at the leaders.  Cadillac (Ire) projects to be forwardly placed early; and Cadillac is a Group Stakes winner at eight furlongs.  Mutasaabeq proved that a deep closer can win over this turf course, as Mutasaabeq came from well off the pace last time out to win the Grade 2 Bourbon.

Battleground is undefeated with Ryan Moore on his back.  Gretzky the Great won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes for fun at Woodbine last time out.  Go Athletico (Fr) has yet to finish out of the Exacta in five career starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Simply Ravishing (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Dayoutoftheoffice (ML 5-2)

# 5 Girl Daddy (ML 6-1)

# 7 Princess Noor (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Vequist (ML 8-1)

# 4 Thoughtfully (ML 20-1)

# 6 Crazy Beautiful (ML 20-1)

Simply Ravishing, Dayoutoftheoffice, and Princess Noor are all undefeated in three career starts.  I give the edge to Simply Ravishing because Simply Ravishing already has a win over this main track at today's distance.

Girl Daddy, winner of the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs last time out, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Miss Amulet (Ire) (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Plum Ali (ML 4-1)

# 5 Aunt Pearl (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 8 Mother Earth (Ire) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Oodnadatta (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 3 Alda (ML 12-1)

# 6 Nazuna (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 9 Madone (ML 10-1)

# 10 Campanelle (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 11 Royal Approval (ML 10-1)

# 12 Spanish Loveaffair (ML 15-1)

# 13 Union Gables (ML 20-1)
# 14 Editor At Large (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 15 Invincible Gal (GB) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 7 Tetragonal (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Snowfall (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

Miss Amulet (Ire), a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed in the UK, looks classy enough to handle this field; and Miss Amulet's breeding suggests that she should do just fine with the distance.  Plum Ali, winner of the Grade 2 Miss Grillo last time out, could get first run at the leaders; while Aunt Pearl (Ire) projects to be among the pacesetters.

Mother Earth (Ire) could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Essential Quality (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Jackie's Warrior (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 Camp Hope (ML 30-1)
# 2 King Fury (ML 15-1)

# 3 Reinvestment Risk (ML 9-1)

# 4 Likeable (ML 15-1)

# 6 Keepmeinmind (ML 30-1)

# 8 Classier (ML 12-1)

# 9 Sitting On Go (ML 12-1)

# 10 Dreamer's Disease (ML 30-1)
# 11 Next (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hot Rod Charlie (ML 30-1)
# 13 Rombauer (ML 15-1)
# 14 Calibrate (ML 20-1)

Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Breeder's Futurity over this main track at today's distance last time out.  Jackie's Warrior enters this event with a perfect four-for-four record for his career, which includes three Graded Stakes wins.  The only question with Jackie's Warrior is how he'll handle going around two turns for the first time; but that's no small question.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,9,11,12 with 1,3,5,7 with 2,4,5,8 with 5,7 $96.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14 with 1 with 2 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,6 with 2 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1,3,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 with 5 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 $6.00

Total: $113.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:10 EST / 12:10 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo