“Enjoying success requires the ability to adapt. Only by being open to change will you have a true opportunity to get the most from your talent.” - Nolan Ryan
Saturday was originally intended to be Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn Park; but, well, things changed. Lots of things. And yet, in one way, things remained the same; as Saturday will still feature a prep race in Hot Springs that will reward its top three finishers with entry into the biggest race being run on the first Saturday in May (not to mention an automatic entry for the winner into the Preakness ). The prep race of which I speak is the newly minted $200k Oaklawn Stakes, which I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 9 - The Oaklawn Mile $150k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Tom's d'Etat (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Slick Silver (ML 30-1)
# 2 Mr. Money (ML 4-1)
# 4 Pioneer Spirit (ML 6-1)
# 5 Boldor (ML 20-1)
# 7 Snapper Sinclair (ML 10-1)
# 8 Bankit (ML 15-1)
# 10 Long Range Toddy (ML 10-1)
# 11 Lord Guinness (ML 30-1)
# 13 Fight On (ML 20-1)
# 14 Improbable (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 6 M G Warrior (ML 15-1); # 9 Home Run Trick (ML 30-1); and # 12 Kershaw (ML 20-1)
If you're gonna single, might as well do it in the opening leg and get it over with. Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 1 Clark last time out, and the Grade 2 Fayette the time out before that, and Mr. Money, who missed by just a neck of winning five straight Graded Stakes in 2019, look to have a clear class edge over the rest of the field. Yeah, there's also Improbable, who is undoubtedly a tremendously talented horse. But Improbable has a history of disappointing on race day; so, for me, it comes down to Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money.
Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money are both making their 2020 debuts; and of the two, I think Tom's d'Etat tends to run better off just works. Tom's d'Etat also seems better suited to the eight furlong distance than Mr. Money.
It's quite possible come Saturday evening that I'll be seriously regretting not having used both Tom's d'Etat and Mr. Money on my main ticket; but right now I think that it would be a serious waste of bankroll to double the cost of my play. So it's Tom's d'Etat as my big ticket single, while Mr. Money joins all the other entrants as a backup "C" Selection.
RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Eddy Forever (ML 9-2)
B's
# 4 What a Country (ML 8-1)
# 7 Oxide (ML 5-1)
# 10 Dean Martini (ML 7-2)
# 12 Hunt the Front (ML 6-1)
# 13 Seizetheday Rexy (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Prodigious Bay (ML 20-1)
# 2 The Falcon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Overshadow (ML 20-1)
# 5 Instigated (ML 10-1)
# 6 Ugo (ML 20-1)
# 8 Urbanite (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 11 Wartime Hero (ML 10-1) and # 14 Slew Tang Clan (ML 15-1)
Eddy Forever has taken the Show at this class level in each of his two career starts on dirt. What a Country took the Place (albeit a well beaten Place) at this class level in his debut last time out. Oxide was within a length of the winner in each of his two prior starts at this class level.
Dean Martini has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his half dozen career starts, save one. Hunt the Front has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts. Seizetheday Rexy could find himself in position to get first run at the leaders. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 11 - The Oaklawn $200k - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Thousand Words (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Basin (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sir Rick (ML 15-1)
# 13 Gold Street (ML 20-1)
C's
# 2 Coach Bahe (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mr. Big News (ML 30-1)
# 6 Shoplifted (ML 10-1)
# 7 Flap Jack (ML 20-1)
# 8 Taishan (ML 8-1)
# 9 Digital (ML 8-1)
# 10 Something Natural (ML 20-1)
# 11 Background (ML 12-1)
# 12 Farmington Road (ML 6-1)
If Thousand Words can rebound off that poor showing in the Grade 2 San Felipe, then he looks to be much the best here. Of course, if Thousand Words doesn't rebound off that poor showing, I'll be looking pretty silly later for having made him my top pick.
Basin, Show finisher in the Grade 2 Rebel last time out, could improve going second off the layoff. Sir Rick, open lengths winner of the $100k Mine That Bird Derby last time out, seems capable of handling the class elevation. Gold Street, winner of the Smarty Jones over this track back in January, should be forgiven for that poor effort last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 12 - OC 50k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Sonny Smack (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 5 Popular Kid (ML 9-2)
# 6 Exulting (ML 4-1)
# 9 Cashanova (ML 8-1)
# 13 High Security (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Jungle Warfare (ML 6-1)
# 2 Colonelsdarktemper (ML 20-1)
# 3 Hunka Burning Love (ML 15-1)
# 4 Limonite (ML 8-1)
# 7 Croatian (ML 20-1)
# 11 Alkhaatam (ML 30-1)
# 12 Two Emmys (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 8 Charlie'sarchangel (ML 10-1) and # 14 Irish Heatwave (ML 6-1)
Sonny Smack disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against classier competition. Popular Kid looks like he can win from anywhere on the track, and Trainer Jason Barkley tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
Exulting was simply out classed last time out, and can be expected to run better today. Cashanova took the Show at this class level last time out. High Security could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 9 with 4 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,7,9,10,12,13 with 1,4,5,13 with 5,6,9,10,13 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14 with 9 with 4 with 10 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,5,6,8 with 4 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with 10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,7,11,12 $3.50
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 5:43 EDT / 2:43 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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