Saturday, April 4, 2020

4/4/20 Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“Courage doesn’t always roar. Sometimes courage is the little voice at the end of the day that says I’ll try again tomorrow.” - Mary Anne Radmacher

Greetings once again; as I hope this finds all of you and all those for whom you care healthy and happy and sane.  Once again I try again; this Saturday turning my attention to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where there will almost certainly be rain; but hopefully the sun will shine on my play.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 6 Dulce Ride (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 3 Maryanorginger (ML 7-2)
# 11 Georgia Clay (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Letters to Belle (ML 50-1)
# 2 Inthemidstofbiz (ML 4-1)

# 4 Take Charge Erica (ML 15-1)
# 5 Savvy Ally (ML 15-1)
# 7 Portal Creek (ML 5-1)
# 9 Cardamon (ML 9-2)
# 10 Super Wonder Girl (ML 8-1)
# 12 Wishful Quality (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 8 Lady Gusto (ML 30-1)

Dulce Ride, trained by Brad Cox, probably needed that last race, coming as she was off a nearly year long layoff.  Maryanorginger graduated in front of a next out winner in her debut last time out; but last time out for Maryanorginger was back in June, so it's fair to wonder just how ready she will be for this first try against winners.

Georgia Clay took the Place at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Answer In (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 3 General Trev (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 6-1)
# 2 Stackin Silver (ML 10-1)

# 6 Winning Impression (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fort Knox (ML 8-1)
# 8 Hail to the Chief (ML 20-1)
# 9 Unthrottled (ML 20-1)
# 10 Adhhar (ML 12-1)

# 11 Bahama Channel (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Nashvegas (ML 20-1) and # 12 Davidic Line (ML 20-1)

Answer In, trained by Brad Cox, took the Show in the Grade 3 Southwest last time out.  Answer In should probably be a single here; but my concern with Answer In is that he has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two prior starts; and that's certainly not a healthy trend.

General Trev won his debut by daylight last time out, and Trainer Steve Asmussen tends to do well when placing his last out graduates.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Purple Martin $100k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 8 Frank's Rockette (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Kimari (ML 4-1)
# 4 Edgeway (ML 3-1)
# 6 Lexi On the Move (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Ring Leader (ML 6-1)
# 5 Bootytama (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lady Glamour (ML 15-1)
# 9 Kiss the Girl (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wasabi Girl (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 3 Flat Out Speed (ML 20-1)

Frank's Rockette, multiple times Graded Stakes placed, has yet to finish out of the Exacta in her five race career for Trainer Bill Mott.  Kimari, trained by Wesley Ward, returns to the dirt for her 2020 debut, and her recent bullet work at Keeneland on Monday suggests that the surface switch should pose no problems for Kimari.

Edgeway won her debut by as many as she wanted for Trainer John Sadler last time out.  Lexi On the Move, trained by Robertino Diodoro, was a multi-length winner in each of her two prior starts, both at today's distance, and both over this track.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Mo and Go (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Aztec Empire (ML 4-1)
# 5 Wild Union (ML 7-2)
# 7 Copper King (ML 6-1)
# 12 On d'Oro (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 White Wolf (ML 15-1)
# 2 Great Faces (ML 8-1)
# 3 Stonegate (ML 15-1)

# 6 Don Vito Corleone (ML 20-1)
# 9 Lookin High (ML 12-1)
# 10 Wild and Golden (ML 30-1)
# 11 Tiz the Journey (ML 10-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Time Is Now (ML 12-1) and # 14 A. K. Safari (ML 8-1)

Mo and Go may have needed that last race off the layoff.  Aztec Empire took the Show at this class level last time out; and Aztec Empire is lightly raced enough to suggest that improvement is possible.

Wild Union, Copper King, and On d'Oro have finished in the Trifecta multiple times at this class level, which shows that they fit at this class level; but it could also be a red flag, suggesting that they may be settling for too many minor awards.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 5 with 8 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,11 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,8 with 4,5,7,8,12 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,12 with 5 with 8 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 8 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 2,5,7,9,10 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 5 with 8 with 1,2,3,6,9,10,11 $3.50

Total: $75.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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