“The same boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It’s what you’re made of. Not the circumstances.” - Anonymous
And so we arrive at the closing weekend for the meet at Hot Springs, with Friday's card featuring a trio of stakes, the most prominent being the Grade 3 Fantasy for three year old fillies. I'll be taking a look at all three contests below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 7 - [S] The Arkansas Breeders' Championship $165k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 K J's Nobility (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 10 Glacken's Ghost (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Promising Shoes (ML 5-1)
# 2 Souixper Charger (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hamazing Vision (ML 9-2)
# 5 Prospector Fever (ML 8-1)
# 6 J. E.'s Handmedown (ML 15-1)
# 7 Destiny Way (ML 20-1)
# 8 Heritage Park (ML 20-1)
# 9 Bandit Point (ML 10-1)
# 11 Man in the Can (ML 6-1)
K J's Nobility has won three of his last four contests, including an open length victory last time out in the $100k Nodouble Breeders' Stakes (which, like today's contest, was restricted to state bred entrants only). Glacken's Ghost, soundly defeated by K J's Nobility last time out, could turn the tables on that rival with the added distance. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Gardenia $80k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Gingham (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Piece of My Heart (ML 8-1)
# 5 Daphne Moon (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Flag (ML 9-2)
# 10 Antoinette (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Turnstone (ML 30-1)
# 8 Comical (ML 15-1)
# 11 His Glory (ML 8-1)
# 12 Shanghai Keely (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Kat Taps (ML 30-1); # 6 Quick Decision (ML 12-1); # 9 Ice Princess (ML 10-1); # 13 Kiss the Girl (ML 30-1); and # 14 Punk Rock (ML 30-1)
Gingham took the Place behind Venetian Harbor last time out in the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita. Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag filled out the Exacta over this main track against Optional Claiming company (OC 80k N2L) last time out, and both Piece of My Heart and Strong Flag have been progressing well so far in their respective three year old campaigns.
Daphne Moon could improve going second off the layoff. Antoinette took the Show last time out in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) The Fantasy (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Venetian Harbor (ML 2-1)
B's
# 3 Swiss Skydiver (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lake Avenue (ML 15-1)
# 5 Harvey's Little Goil (ML 12-1)
# 10 British Idiom (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Ice Princess (ML 20-1)
# 6 Kansas Kis (ML 30-1)
# 7 Shedaresthedevil (ML 12-1)
# 8 Ring Leader (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lady Glamour (ML 50-1)
# 11 Fire Coral (ML 15-1)
# 12 New York Groove (ML 20-1)
# 13 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 14 Alta's Award (ML 12-1)
Venetian Harbor, trained by Richard Baltas, won the Grade 2 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita last time out by as many as she wanted. Swiss Skydiver led the field all the way around the track last time out while winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by open lengths.
Though she was convincingly defeated in the Gulfstream Park Oaks by Swiss Skydiver, I'm going to use Lake Avenue on the main ticket because I think Lake Avenue can improve off that effort. Harvey's Little Goil, trained by Bill Mott, seems to fit well with the contenders.
British Idiom was better than Swiss Skydiver by daylight in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Wholehearted (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 6 Spend Spend Spend (ML 7-2)
# 8 La Chancla (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Sara Sea (ML 15-1)
# 5 Rahway (ML 30-1)
# 9 Profound Legacy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Unique Factor (ML 12-1)
# 11 Raintree Starlet (ML 30-1)
# 12 Fugitive Lady (ML 30-1)
# 13 Stirred (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Miss Imperial (ML 4-1); # 2 Violation (ML 30-1); # 4 Full of Grace (ML 8-1); and # 14 Timely Tradition
Wholehearted, winner of the $50k Wilma Mankiller at Will Rodgers Downs last time out, has finished in the Trifecta in eight of her ten career starts at Oaklawn Park. Spend Spend Spend goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.
La Chancla, victorious by daylight the last time that she competed at today's distance, has been working well for Trainer Steve Asmussen in preparation for her 2020 debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 7 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,10 with 2,3,5,7,10 with 2,3,4,5,10 with 6,7,8 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 3 with 2 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8,11,12 with 2 with 7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 1,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14 with 7 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 2 with 3,5,9,10,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $90.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:06 EDT / 2:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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