“Don’t let yesterday take up too much of today.” – Will Rogers
It's the first Saturday in May, and, needless to say, a lot has changed since the last first Saturday in May. A lot. But while it's not what we were expecting, there's no complaints as to what we have; for what we have Saturday is, not one, but two Derbies, as twenty-two entrants caused the good folks in Hot Springs to split their featured contest into two divisions. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oaklawn Park.
RACE 11 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (First Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Charlatan (Morning Line 1-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 My Friends Beer (ML 20-1)
# 3 Mo Mosa (ML 30-1)
# 4 Gouverneur Morris (ML 9-2)
# 5 Jungle Runner (ML 30-1)
# 8 Anneau d'Or (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Impression (ML 15-1)
# 10 Crypto Cash (ML 20-1)
# 11 Basin (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Shooters Shoot (ML 8-1) and # 7 Wrecking Crew (ML 20-1)
If you're going to single, it's best to do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way. The only question in my mind with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan is how he'll handle the distance; and I hope that if Charlatan struggles getting all nine furlongs, that he'll at least be so far in front that he'll still be un-catchable. So Charlatan gets the solo spot on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 12 - The Oaklawn Handicap (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mr Freeze (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Trophy Chaser (ML 12-1)
# 7 Combatant (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tacitus (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Chess Chief (ML 30-1)
# 3 Bravazo (ML 30-1)
# 5 Identifier (ML 20-1)
# 6 Warrior's Charge (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Promise (ML 20-1)
# 10 Captivating Moon (ML 20-1)
# 11 Tax (ML 15-1)
# 12 By My Standards (ML 9-2)
# 13 Night Ops (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 14 Improbable (ML 8-1)
Mr Freeze has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last five Graded Stakes starts, and Mr Freeze appears to be entering this contest in top form for Trainer Dale Romans. Trophy Chaser, winner of the Grade 3 Challenger last time out, fits well here with the contenders.
Combatant, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last time out, has been working well for this event. Tacitus can be expected to improve with the return to the US. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 13 - The Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) (Second Division) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nadal (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 King Guillermo (ML 3-1)
# 7 Silver Prospector (ML 10-1)
# 10 Farmington Road (ML 12-1)
# 11 Wells Bayou (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 15-1)
# 3 Storm the Court (ML 6-1)
# 6 Code Runner (ML 50-1)
# 9 Taishan (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 2 Saratogian (ML 50-1) and # 8 Fast Enough (ML 12-1)
Insert your favorite tennis pun here, as Nadal, undefeated in three career starts (including two Graded Stakes) looks to be best here. King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby last time out on the front end, might actually be the one running best late; though Farmington Road also appears to be a candidate for that title.
Silver Prospector, winner of the Grade 3 Southwest two starts back, could improve off his last start with a cleaner trip. Wells Bayou, winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and second behind Silver Prospector in the Southwest two starts back, has consistently run well over this track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 14 - Alw 10000s - Fourteen Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Dangerfield (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 5 Carlos Sixes (ML 4-1)
# 7 Wickets Way (ML 8-1)
# 11 The Rouge Diesel (ML 15-1)
# 13 Curlin Grey (ML 10-1)
# 14 River Echo (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Stuart Hall (ML 20-1)
# 4 Magic Vow (ML 5-1)
# 6 Whole Lotta Luck (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ghostly Who (ML 12-1)
# 9 Take Charge d'Oro (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wild About You (ML 10-1)
# 12 She Might Tell (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 2 Hard to Impress (ML 50-1)
This is a pretty straight forward Starter Allowance, as far as conditions go, as any runner that has started for a claiming price of $10k or less, this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Dangerfield and Carlos Sixes are a pair of last out winners going for trainers (Jerry Hollendorfer and Karl Broberg, respectively) who tend to do well when going for two in a row. Wickets Way, Show runner behind Dangerfield last time out, could improve with the added distance.
The Rouge Diesel won the running of this event last year, at a very nice price. Curlin Grey seems well bred to run all day. River Echo (GB) is going first off the claim for Trainer Cipriano Contreras, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,7,9 with 4,5,7,10,11 with 1,5,7,11,13,14 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11 with 4 with 5 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,3,5,6,8,10,11,12,13 with 5 with 1 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 1,3,6,9 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 5 with 3,4,6,8,9,10,12 $3.50
Total: $75.00
Post Time for Race 11 is 6:29 EDT / 3:29 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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