7/6/14 Monmouth Park Late Pick Four - Preview

On the final day of this beautiful Fourth of July weekend we turn now from west to east, and try our hand at Monmouth Park on United Nations Day.  Since Late Pick Fours come early on the East Coast analysis will be much more sparse than usual; hopefully, though, the selections will not be lacking.

RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Strategic Keeper (Morning Line 9-2)
# 4 Picozza (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mythical Man (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Purely Boy (ML 6-1)
# 5 Best Play (ML 4-1)
# 6 Kwacha (ML 6-1)
# 7 Queen of the Hill (ML 3-1)

Picozza is the Morning Line Favorite, and is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by Joe Bravo; for that reason alone he must be respected.  But it's telling that Picozza's best effort (as measured by his Beyer Speed Figures) came in his one career race that was off the turf.  Perhaps even more telling is the fact that the class drop from Graded Stakes to Allowance company produced no noticeable improvement in either Beyer or placing.  Again, the connections must be respected, which is why I have Picozza as an "A" rather than a "C"; but in my opinion this race is in fact very wide open.

RACE 10 - The Salvator Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Dawly (ML 6-1)

# 7 Itsmyluckyday (ML 3-1)

# 10 Valid (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 4 Raging Daoust (ML 30-1)

Dawly enters this contest with the best last out Beyer, a figure that is not greatly above the others that he has earned this year.  Itsmyluckyday is the class standout here and comes into this event having won his last two, including a stakes win over this main track.  Valid may get hung wide in the turn due to the Post Position draw; but he has shown in the past the ability to win when not on the lead.  Raging Daoust, who paid $69 when he won this contest last year, in on the ticket because sometimes lighting does strike twice in the same place.

RACE 11 - OC 20k/N1X - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Ain't Got Time (ML 4-1)

# 6 On the Loose Again (ML 5-1)

C’s

# 5 Mr. Viber (ML 10-1)

# 7 Untamed (ML 12-1)

# 8 Inmyfathersimage (ML 7-2)

# 11 Jazz Maxx (ML 9-2)

Ain't Got Time tries winners (but not older horses) for the first time; but he's worked well since graduating, and this looks to be about as soft a spot as you can land from an MSW win without being put up for sale.  If On the Loose Again returns to the form that he showed in his routes last Fall, then he could be an easy winner here.  

RACE 12 - The United Nations (Grade 1) - Eleven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Twilight Eclipse (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 2 Ghurair (ML 3-1)

# 5 Main Sequence (ML 8-1)

# 7 Kaigun (ML 5-1)

Twilight Eclipse is a Graded Stakes winner at today's distance, having taken the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida earlier this year.  If Twilight Eclipse is allowed to get loose on the front end, then this one could be over well before they hit the wire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 3 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 3 $12.00

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 4 with 2,6 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 5,7,8,11 with 3 $18.00

$0.50 P4: 2,4,8 with 6,7,10 with 2,6 with 2,5,7 $27.00

Total: $78.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 4:41 EDT / 1:41 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo