RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 L T Reckless (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 2 When I'm Calling U (ML 7-2)
C's
# 7 Yodel Up a Storm (ML 5-1)
Yes, that's right; I'm using "B's" as well as the usual "A's" and "C's". Part of that is an attempt to fine tune my thinking on how I see these events, while another (perhaps larger) part of that is an attempt to just shake things up a bit to see if it improves results.
L T Reckless is a winner of four of her last five races, the last two victories coming against more expensive stock than what she will be facing today. Concerns are that she has just one Show finish in her two prior tries on a synthetic surface, and she finished out of the money in her only prior race over this main track.
When I'm Calling U ships in from Northern California with a career record of nine in the money finishes in ten prior races on synthetic surfaces. If the track is playing fair today, then the anticipated early speed battle up front should set up nicely for When I'm Calling U. Yodel Up a Storm is the only entrant in the field with a Win over this main track.
RACE 2 - Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Zimmer (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tigah (GB) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Mr T Bird (ML 8-1)
C's
# 7 Would You (ML 12-1)
Zimmer won at this level his last time out charging down the hill at Santa Anita. Zimmer also was a winner in his only prior try on the Del Mar turf.
Tigah (GB) drops in for the lowest tag of his career. As Tigah has just one win in the previous twenty-nine months, it's fair to presume that Trainer John Sadler is just looking to get this horse into the Winner's Circle.
Mr T Bird is another dropping to the lowest selling price of his career. Mr. T Bird has won off the bench in the past, and the six furlong bullet work at Santa Anita suggests that he's in racing shape.
Would You gave a career best performance last time out, and it put him on the shelf for six months. But Would You has shown the ability to run well off the bench in the past, and there's no arguing with Trainer Phillip D'Amato's record with those coming back from an extended layoff, as well with winners last time out looking to repeat.
RACE 3 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 7-2)
# 9 Itz a Saint (ML 5-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Magic Number (ML 10-1)
Thermal Nermal has shown herself to be competitive at higher levels on both dirt and turf, so hopefully the form will hold in her first try on a synthetic surface.
Itz a Saint travels in from upstate with a record of three wins in eight tries on a synthetic surface. Itz a Saint took the Place her last time out against more expensive stock, and has finished in the money in all seven prior contests at today's distance.
Magic Number has won two of her four career starts on a synthetic surface, and took the Show while routing against more expensive stock two starts back.
RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Maybellene (ML 7-2)
# 4 Tara's Tango (ML 3-1)
B's
# 7 Southern Lady (ML 10-1)
# 8 Diva Express (ML 15-1)
C’s
# 6 Daddy's Duo (ML 9-2)
# 9 Windy Forecast (ML 7-2) and #10 Queen of Kings (ML 8-1) have been scratched.
Maybellene is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia; Tara's Tango is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Mike Smith. If you follow Southern California racing, that's pretty much all you need to know as to why those two horses are "A" contenders. Baffert has a .23 Winning Percentage with first time starters, a .26 Winning Percentage with two year olds, and a .30 Winning Percentage when giving Martin Garcia the leg up at Del Mar over the past two years. Hollendorfer has a .32 Winning Percentage with first time starters, a .25 Winning Percentage with two year olds, and a .27 overall Winning Percentage over the past two years when Mike Smith rides one of his horses.
Southern Lady is by Yes It's True, whose offspring tend to be precocious. Trainer Cody Aubrey has down extremely well with both first time starters and with juveniles, albeit in small sample sizes.
Diva Express was purchased at auction this past March for $260k. Diva Express has shown a couple of bullet works over the past six weeks, including one from the gate over this main track.
Daddy's Duo, trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, took the Place at this level over the synthetic surface at Arlington Park in her debut. Daddy's Duo is the only experienced runner in today's field.
RACE 5 - The Eddie Read (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Summer Front (ML 8-5)
B's
# 6 Tom's Tribute (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Horizontalyspeakin (ML 3-1)
Summer Front won the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale at Gulfstream Park back in January, and took the Place in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile his last time out.
Tom's Tribute finished a half length back of Summer Front last time out in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. Tom's Tribute has yet to find the Winner's Circle in a Graded Stakes, but he has shown the ability to compete at this level, and this is not the strongest of Grade 1 fields. Jockey Mike Smith, who was on Tom's Tribute back for each of his four prior career wins, gets the mount again today.
Horizontally Speaking is the only horse in this field with a victory on the Del Mar turf. Horizontally Speaking should be forwardly placed today.
Unbridled Command won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby back in November 2012; and has had only two starts since. Unbridled Command showed absolutely nothing in his prep race last month. If he's in top shape he's a contender; but there's little to justify believing that he's in top shape, and since this is the final leg of the play we can't look at the tote board to see what kind of action he's getting. So if Unbridled Command wins today, he beats me.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $12.00
A's with One B
$1.00 P5: 2 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $8.00
$1.00 P5: 1 with 8 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $4.00
$1.00 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 2 $8.00
$1.00 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 6 $8.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P5: 2 with 8 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 6 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 8 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 8 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 7,8 with 6 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P5: 7 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 7 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,5 with 6 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 6 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 pick P5: 1 with 1,5 with 4,9 with 1,4 with 4 $4.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment