RACE 5 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Rowdy Dylan (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Popsracer (ML 4-1)
# 7 Dr. Vincentstein (ML 7-2)
Rowdy Dylan took the Place in his debut at this level and goes for a trainer (Peter Miller) who gets approximately 18% winners from his maidens making their second attempt at graduating. Popsracer took the Show in his debut at this level and goes for a trainer (David Hofmans) who gets approximately 19% winners from his maidens making their second attempt at graduating. Dr. Vincentstein shows a good gate work over this track back on June 27; and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Paul Aguirre / Iggy Puglisi do good work together.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N1Y - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Ghost N Your Heart (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sizzling Lassie (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Metaxa (ML 7-2)
# 5 Fiesta Express (ML 4-1)
The last time Ghost N Your Heart posted a Beyer Speed Figure below 60 on a dirt track was in her second career start back in January 2011; but that was also her only prior career start at seven furlongs, which may or may not be a coincidence. Guns N Your Heart gets a good helping of class relief, moving from open claimers to this conditioned contest. Likewise for Sizzling Lassie, who has finished in the money in her last three events, all against non-conditioned claimers.
Metaxa and Fiesta Express are both coming back on short rest and could be live. Note that Fiesta Express earned his career best dirt Beyer in his only prior contest at today's distance.
RACE 7 - The Great Lady M. (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
I'm not ashamed to admit it; I found this event inscrutable. The only horse I would toss would be # 2 Concave (ML 10-1); but if you can only find one horse to toss, then there's no excuse not to use them all. # 1 Tres Belle (ML 3-1) runs for the Baffert / Garcia Trainer / Jockey tandem and shows steadily increasing Beyers, earning a number last time out that virtually matches her career best Beyer, which she earned in her debut. # 3 Clearly Confused (ML 4-1) is a specialist at today's distance, having finished in the Exacta in each of her five career starts at six and a half furlongs.
# 4 Heir Kitty (ML 5-2), winner of the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes last December, will appreciate not having to again go up against Judy the Beauty. # 5 Amaranth (ML 8-1) could be the speed of the speed here, and may very well be worth a play in the Win Pool if she gets overlooked in the betting. # 6 Sagebrush Queen (ML 5-1) just misses by a half length of having four Wins in her last five tries, and has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. If # 7 Doinghardtimeagin (ML 5-1) returns to the form that she showed last year when winning the Hollywood Oaks then she could very well crush this field.
RACE 8 - Clm $10k N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Relatively Correct (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Jeffery's Pride (ML 15-1)
# 6 Warren's Concept (ML 20-1)
# 7 It's Superman (ML 20-1)
# 2 Friendly Hays (ML 15-1); # 4 Doubledeesonthetee (ML 6-5); and # 5 Bright Ocean (ML 3-1) have all been scratched.
The four horses remaining in this field went off at the following odds in their last respective race: 14.30; 20.80; 23.10; 54.30. Relatively Correct is clearly the best of those remaining, and by the time the betting is done may go down in history as the worst horse ever to go off at odds well below even money. If you want, you can cut down substantially on the cost of this play by eliminating the "C" contenders; but personally, I don't have enough faith in a horse like Relatively Correct to make him a single, as all too often these horses manage to find a way to lose.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 3 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $14.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $14.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 1 $7.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 3,7 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 with 3,6,7 $21.00
Total: $56.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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