RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Opsec (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
# 4 Good Deal (ML 10-1)
# 7 Crux (ML 6-1)
# 9 Radiant Dancer (ML 5-2)
Opsec is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Martin Garcia; and it's tempting to stop the analysis right there and proclaim, "Good enough for me!" But you can also factor in that Opsec is by Pioneer of the Nile, whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts. Also note that Opsec shows a steady workout pattern since early April, and has the second best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field, behind only Good Deal.
If you're playing the Win Pool, Good Deal is appropriately named, especially if he should go to post at his Morning Line odds. Good Deal runs for the combo of Trainer Tom Proctor and Jockey Drayden Van Dyke, who have been doing very good work together. First time starters by Smart Strike, Good Deal's sire, win approximately 14% of their tries. Good Deal shows a steady workout pattern going back to mid-April, and, as mentioned above, has the best Tomlinson Rating for the Distance in this field. While I feel that Opsec rates a clear edge over Good Deal, if Good Deal goes to post at anything close to 10-1 you can be certain that he'll have at least some of my money on his nose.
Crux is the only experienced runner in this field, and has flashed some early speed in some of his previous outings. Radiant Dancer has been firing bullets in the morning, and goes for a trainer (Jeff Bonde) who gets approximately 21% winners from his first time starters; but the gaps in the workouts are a concern.
RACE 7 - (F) Alw 25000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Rhodium (ML 3-1)
# 5 Creditcardroulette (ML 4-1)
# 7 Appealing Resume (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Tough Business (ML 4-1)
The first thing to note is that, unlike the Starter Allowances run at Santa Anita, this one is not restricted to horses who have yet to win two races in their career (N2L). It's an important distinction; though, sadly, not one that you'll find in the DRF Past Performances. For example, note the June 1 race for # 3 La Quillotana (ML 10-1) and note especially that there is no N2L designation in the DRF Past Performances for that Starter Allowance, even though the chart of that race makes it clear that the race was restricted to runners who had fewer than two lifetime wins.
Toss Rhodium's last race, which was charging down the grass hill at Santa Anita; obviously something that she did not enjoy, but which Trainer Peter Miller was no doubt using to get her back into shape after a brief vacation (note that Miller shows a flat bet profit when moving his runners from turf to dirt). Rhodium has shown herself to be competitive at a class level above today's contest, and Jockey Drayden Van Dyke wins approximately 23% of the time that he sits on top of a Peter Miller horse.
Creditcardroulette will be making her first start on a fast dirt track, and there's every reason to expect her to handle it well, as her sire, Northern Afleet, was a Graded Stakes winner on dirt. Appealing Resume is another where I'm willing to toss her last race, as a return to her form prior to that contest puts her right in the mix today. But caution is warranted here, as Resume is seven years old, and that last outing may be the first sign of an age-related decline.
Tough Business looks to be a young improving runner who may continue to step up her game as she moves up the class ladder, though the barn change is a bit of a concern.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shared Belief (ML 4-5)
# 6 Top Fortitude (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 3 Can the Man (ML 6-1)
# 4 Friendswith K Mill (ML 10-1)
# 7 Candy Boy (ML 5-2)
If Shared Belief runs his race, he wins, as the two-time Graded Stakes winner stands out as much the best in this field. While Shared Belief has never gone this far in competition, I doubt that the distance will present him with any problems. The main concern is that this will be Shared Belief's first outing on a real dirt track; and the fact that he's been working on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate in preparation for this contest does little to alleviate that concern. Therefore, I thought it was a good idea to spread a little wide in this event.
Bayern is the only reason that Top Fortitude is not also a two-time Graded Stakes winner. Note that the Beyer Speed Figure that Top Fortitude earned last time out in the Woody Stephens is a virtual match for his career best Beyer that he earned in his two year old debut, suggesting that he may be ready to take a big step forward off that number. Oh, also note that if you got your online DRF PP's at around the same time that I did, the closer look comments for Top Fortitude actually belongs under Candy Boy, and vice-versa.
Can the Man, going for the Trainer Bob Baffert / Jockey Martin Garcia duo, has earned steadily improving Beyer Speed Figures in each of his five career starts. Note also that Can the Man has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field.
Friendswith K Mill took the Place last time out behind Can the Man in the Grade 3 Affirmed. If the pace gets too hot up front Friendswith K Mill may be the one swooping in late to get his picture taken. Candy Boy is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt, though I suspect that his best may be a cut below what others in this field have to offer.
RACE 9 - [S](F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs
A’s
# 1 Lucky S. J. (ML 6-1)
# 3 Swiss Intrigue (ML 7-2)
# 7 Our Love Affair (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Inflamed (ML 15-1)
# 8 Yodelmesomemagic (ML 5-1)
# 9 Grace Victoria (ML 3-1)
Lucky S. J. shows some serious gaps in his published works, and goes for a conditioner (Philip D'Amato) that gets only 6% winners from his debut runners. So why do I have him as an "A" selection? Call it more hunch than logic; though positives in Lucky S. J.'s favor include the 12.5% Winning Percentage for first timers sired by Lucky J. H., along with the fact that Martin Garcia does quite well when running for this barn.
Swiss Intrigue is by Swiss Yodeler, who gets approximately 11% winners from his first time starters. Note also the lack of gaps in Swiss Intrigue's published works.
Our Love Affair Is sired by Cyclotron, whose progeny win a little less than 17% of their debuts, and trained by Bruce Headley, who wins approximately 13% of the time (with a $4.04 ROI) with first time starters. Also note that Our Love Affair has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
Inflamed returns to the track after a nearly two year absence. The gap in the public works between April 10 and June 4 is a concern, though a return to the form that she showed in her debut puts her in the mix for this one.
Yodelmesomemagic makes her three year old debut after being away from the track for over a year. The barn switch can be viewed as a positive, but the one month gap in published works from May 17 to June 17 could be a concern.
Grace Victoria flashed some early speed in her debut, taking the Show (albeit in a four horse field). The concern is that runners for Trainer Doug O'Neil don't often improve in their second attempt if they fail to win their first time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7,9 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $27.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 5,6 with 1,3,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 3,4,7 with 1,3,7 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,5,7 with 5,6 with 2,8,9 $9.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment