RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 5 Sir Macho (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Romar Success (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Sir Macho earned the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, missed the Win by less than half a length against unrestricted $40k claimers. Sir Macho took the Place in his only other try on a synthetic surface, and his one career Win came at eight furlongs.
Romar Success has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed on a synthetic surface in his career, and missed by less than a length of winning at this level last time out.
RACE 8 - [R] The Oceanside $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Argyle Cut (ML 9-2)
# 2 G. G. Ryder (ML 12-1)
# 7 Aotearoa (ML 20-1)
# 9 Enterprising (ML 7-2)
# 12 Forever Juanito (ML 20-1)
C's
None
Argyle Cut has finished in the Exacta all five times that he's competed at today's distance on the turf. G. G. Ryder, Aotearoa, and Enterprising are all stakes winners on the grass at today's distance. Forever Juanito is also a stakes winner on the grass, albeit while charging down the Santa Anita hill.
I did not use # 5 Patriots Rule (ML 8-1) or # 10 Texas Ryano (ML 4-1) because they are both one-run closers, and I don't think that this contest suits their running style. But I think I might toss them onto an extra ticket, just in case.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Magic Beam (ML 8-1)
# 9 Diamond of Blue (ML 5-2)
C's
None
All five of Magic Beam's career victories have come over a synthetic surface. Magic Beam has also won three of his seven contests on the Del Mar main track, and has finished in the money in all but one of those seven events. Diamond of Blue has won at this level in two of his last three races; the only three times that he has competed over this main track.
RACE 10 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Buenos Dias (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 7 Woodmans Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Affrettando (ML 6-1)
# 9 Godard (ML 5-1)
# 13 Causeithertz (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Buenos Dias (Ire) has earned the following Beyers when competing over the Del Mar turf (in order from first to most recent): 84 / 90 / 92 / 90 / 85 / 95 . Any one of those figures puts him right in the mix today.
Fun facts regarding Woodmans Luck: 1) He won the last race ever run at Hollywood Park; 2) That race was run on the grass at today's distance; 3) Prior to today, that was Woodmans Luck only career race on the grass at eight and a half furlongs.
Affrettando has two Wins in four career races on the Del Mar turf. Godard is running for a tag for the first time in his career. Causeithertz is probably a false favorite; but he runs for the Trainer / Jockey tandem of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, and there is absolutely no way that I'm losing today's Pick Four because I didn't cover a Baffert/Smith horse in the finale.
Okay, that's the analysis. You'll notice that I didn't designate any "C" selections above; that's because I believe these races to be wide open enough that attempting to separate the contenders would be a fool's errand. Yet in a way I will engage in a bit of a fool's errand, as in addition to playing one caveman style ticket, I will also be punching in an additional ticket in order to cover Patriots Rule and Texas Ryano in The Oceanside, as well as to allow for the chalk sweeping the sequence. So with that, our two tickets will be:
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,7,9,12 with 8,9 with 6,7,8,9,13 $50.00
Additional Ticket
$0.50 P4: 5 with 5,9,10 with 9 with 13 $1.50
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:11 EDT / 5:11 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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