RACE 3 - (F) Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Groovy Dancer (Morning Line 6-1)
# 3 Daddy's Boo (Morning Line 7-2)
# 4 Knoxy (Morning Line 3-2)
C’s
# 2 Shewreckstheplace (ML 4-1)
# 5 Circle of Rossetti (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
Quite frankly, this contest strikes me as a wide open affair; not because I see the field as especially contentious, but because, even for this level of maidens, there seems to be a dearth of desire to win.
Groovy Dancer could be the inside speed on the rail here; but she'll be losing the blinkers today, which may stunt her early speed. Groovy Dancer also faded against state-bred competition her last time out, and her works after that race suggest that she may not be in top shape.
Daddy's Boo is a first time starter. Having a horse make its debut in a claiming event could be a red flag, but since she's a home bred from a sire with a $5k fee, she could be well meant in this spot; especially since there isn't a lot of competition among the experienced runners. Also note the one mile work just four days ago; it's safe to presume that Daddy's Boo is in shape. However, it's also worth noting that she has a full brother (He's Precocious) who's a year older than her and hasn't yet made it to the starting gate; though he did work three furlongs at Fairplex this past Monday.
Knoxy appears to be the most talented in the field, and she has finished in the money twice at this level. But the only time that she's ever had the lead in her career was when competing against turf horses in a race that was taken off the grass; so, even at this level, it's hard to generate a lot of confidence in her direction.
Shewreckstheplace is oh-for-twenty-seven, and I don't know of any handicapper that shows a profitable ROI playing the "The twenty-eighth time's the charm" angle. On the other hand, she's only had three prior tries on a fast dirt track, and all of those were at Aqueduct; so maybe she'll improve if her connections will just keep her off the grass.
RACE 4 - Clm $16k B - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Class Bopper (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sky Masterson (ML 3-1)
# 4 Dodging (ML 7-2)
# 7 Folk Singer (ML 5-2)
C's
None
The "B" conditions for the event are that it's restricted to horses which have not won a race since October 18, 2013 OR horses which have not won four races (excluding races where the horse was entered for $5k or less). I'm going to presume that jump races (or hurdles, if you prefer) are also excluded, else otherwise Class Bopper, who appears to be a class standout here, would not qualify.
Folk Singer and Sky Masterson exit the same contest earlier this month where they took the Place and the Show, respectively. While the $12.5k price tag in that event was lower than today's selling price, that race was unrestricted, so I feel that this is at worst a lateral move for these two on the class ladder.
Dodging comes back from an extended vacation, having last raced eight months ago; however, Trainer Hugh McMahon wins his fair share (approximately 18%) with such. Also note the timing of Dodging's last win, which came on October 9, 2013; just a little more than a week before the deadline.
RACE 5 - OC 12k/SAL 6k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Indefinable Humor (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 3 Gypsy Baron (ML 5-1)
# 8 Small Giant (ML 5-1)
Indefinable Humor has been in the Exacta in all four of his prior races on this main track. Indefinable Humor defeated open claimers his last time out, and now makes his first start for Trainer Hugh McMahon.
Gypsy Barron gets some class relief after showing early speed against more expensive stock. I would not be surprised to see him change barns after this race is over. Small Giant has been running with the pace setters in his most recent races; but his past performances show an ability to win from off the pace, an ability that could prove to be quite useful here.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $35k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Killington (ML 8-5)
# 6 My Princess Diana (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 8 When We Act (ML 10-1)
Killington drops in for a tag for the first time in her career after finishing in the money in three of her five career starts against non-claiming maidens. My Princess Diana has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures throughout her career, and was within two lengths of the winner at this class level her last time out. When We Act took the Show at this level down at Gulfstream Park back in February.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 5,6 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 3,8 with 5,6 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 5 with 8 $6.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 3 is 1:50 EDT / 10:50 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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