Happy Saint Patrick's Day one and all! Here's hoping that your day has been brightened by a song in your heart and warmed by the smiles of the people you love. And with that, let's see if we can be touched by a bit of Irish luck, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 6 - Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 12 Zoomster (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Cupid's Number (ML 9-2) showed some good early speed in his debut at Hawthorne last time out. That debut had been preceded by a light's out four furlong work over this main track in early February. Cupid's Number is almost certainly going to be the one leading the field at least through the opening half; probably even through the first six furlongs. The only question is if Cupid's Number can keep it going, even at this low level, for the entire mile.
For that reason, I didn't make Cupid's Number a main ticket single. Perhaps an error on my part; but I though it best to included another runner in this leg. For that reason # 10 Charlies Medal (ML 4-1) shares a spot with Cupid's Number on the main ticket for this leg. Charlies Medal has hit the board in the past versus more expensive stock, and Charlies Medal's late running style compliments Cupid's Number's front running preference well. Indeed, to go off script for just a moment, I'll mention that at least some of my bankroll will find its way onto a Cupid's Number / Charlies Medal Exacta Box.
RACE 7 - (F) The WEBN Frog $125k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
For those who, like me, didn't know, WEBN is Cincinnati's Rock Station, and the home of the KiddChris Show. Songs that typically can be heard on WEBN include "I Write Sins Not Tragedies" - Panic! At the Disco; "Animal I Have Become" - Three Days Grace; "Sad But True" - Metallica; "Man in the Box" - Alice in Chains; "In Bloom" - Nirvana; and "Even Flow" - Pearl Jam. So if that's your jam be sure to check out WEBN - Cincinnati's Rock Station!
Turning back to the ponies, I figure this contest to be quite competitive, primarily because of Trainer Jonathan Wong. Back in the early days of this meet Wong was winning most everything that wasn't nailed down, and he was spending more time in the winner's circle than pretty much every trainer not named Wesley Ward. But Wong's runners have turned cold of late; otherwise I would unhesitating make # 1 Opening Buzz (ML 5-2), winner of the $125k Wishing Well back in January, a single on my main ticket. But Opening Buzz failed miserably as the Post Time Favorite in the $25k Wintergreen last time out; and, with that in mind, I though it best to spread in this leg.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $7.5k N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 13 Auction Fever (ML 15-1)
Is it just my imagination, or has Turfway Park carded a bunch of these of late? If so, I have to presume that their are a goodly number of runners on the grounds that fit this condition well. Indeed, it seems like in this contest alone there are a goodly number of runners that must be considered contenders at this class level.
I personally went six deep in this leg on my main ticket; but I can legitimately see others going deeper. Conversely, I don't have any real problem with the Morning Line Favorite, # 1 Believing (ML 5-2). The problem I have with Believing is that I don't really see anything about her that stands out from several others in this field. But if you want to roll the dice and take a stand with only one or two entrants in this leg, God bless you. But for me, I decided to spare myself some unnecessary agita and spread in this contest and just hope to survive.
RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Scratch # 3 Rewire (ML 3-1) and # 14 Noble Jon (ML 8-1)
I was tempted to single the Jonathan Wong trained # 7 Fort Defiance (ML 5-2). But as mentioned above, Wong's trainees have been running cold of late. In addition, the scratches of Rewire and Noble Jon mean that Lemonadeatthelatch (ML 15-1) stands an excellent chance of getting loose on the lead. And loose on the lead at 15-1 is just too good a price to let go by. Which is why I went Double A in this leg.
Okay; that's the commentary. Here, in beautiful living color, are all my Selections:
And using a variation of the Crist method to translate my Selections into tickets, I get the following:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 7,10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 7,10 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 8,10 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,7,8 with 7,10 $48.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 6,9 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 7,10 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 6 with 1,3,7,8 with 7,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 9,11,12 with 7,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 6,8 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,11,13 with 2 with 8 with 7,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5,7 with 8 with 7,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 5,6,10 with 7,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 1,5,11,12,13 $2.50
Total: $87.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 8:25 EDT / 5:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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